ANKIT MISHRA

Digitally signed by ANKIT MISHRA Date: 2020.07.09 14:19:08 +05'30'

THE COMPASS

UJJVAL JAUHARI

Shares of Jubilant LifeSciences, which scaled to a 52-week high on Wednesday, areup over 200 per cent sinceMarch lows.

Strong prospects in bothpharmaceuticals and life sci-ences ingredients (LSI) seg-ments — led by the specialtybusiness, an agreement withGilead Sciences for the domes-tic launch of remdesivir, recov-ering supplies of active ingre-dients, and others after easingof the lockdown, and a strongMarch quarter performance —have boosted sentiment. Thecompany’s plan of demergingits pharmaceuticals and LSIsegments could also lead tovalue unlocking for investors.

The launch of remdesivir— expected this month —

remains the key near-termtrigger, say analysts. The com-pany’s backward integrationfor ingredients is a key posi-tive, points out Ranvir Singhat Sunidhi Securities.

Meanwhile, the specialtybusiness-driven growth inboth verticals is keeping mostanalysts bullish on Jubilant.The specialty business (radiodiagnostics and others) in thepharma segment has grown 22per cent annually duringFY18–20, led by better traction,as well as inorganic growth(acquisition in the US), pointout analysts, while superiorexecution has led to a regularimprovement in margins overthe past three years.

Despite disruptions, theMarch quarter saw consolidat-ed earnings before interest,tax, depreciation, and amorti-

sation (Ebitda) growing 58 percent year-on-year (YoY). Whilethe pharma segment (62 percent of revenue) saw marginsimprove 830 basis points YoYto 28.9 per cent, the LSI seg-ment (32 per cent of revenue)saw margins at 14.4 per cent,up 340 bps despite somedecline in revenues. Strong vol-ume and price increases in thepharma segment — specialtyand US generics — helped inthe March quarter.

The company also has apipeline of 38 pending newdrug approvals in the US.

In the LSI segment, nutri-tional products, such as vita-min B, saw 50 per cent growthin the March quarter and thecompany highlighted animproved pricing scenario forthe June quarter. Specialtychemicals for crop protection

and life sciences chemicals forother user industries, however,saw subdued demand in thatquarter. But, after dropping inApril, they are now witnessingimprovement.

While the LSI segment isseeing some disruption, drugdiscovery and developmentsolutions (the smaller verticals)is likely to see stronger growth,led by expanding capacitiesand opportunities.

Overall, target prices ofbrokerages, such as AnandRathi, indicate upside of 23per cent. Anand Rathi’s ana-lysts say the pharma businessis well positioned in the cur-rent environment. Thoughanalysts at Nomura had cuttheir FY21 earnings by 10 percent due to the lockdown, theysee FY22 earnings growing 30per cent over FY21.

Life sciences,pharma segmentsoffer investors value-unlockingopportunities

Jubilant Life poised to gain from Remdesivir launch

SHREEPAD S AUTE

In its first-quarter update forFY21, Titan Company aftermarket hours on Tuesday saidits jewellery business in Junereached 70 per cent of the year-ago level, and 83 per cent of itsstores across all businesseswere now open. But, the Streetwasn't impressed and the stockfell 2.6 per cent on Wednesday;the Sensex was down 0.8 percent. According to the update,Titan's jewellery revenue inMay was slightly below 20 percent of the year-ago level.

Even as the recovery in thejewellery business, whichaccounts for over 80-85 percent of Titan’s revenue andoperating profit, soundsencouraging, there is scepti-

cism over the pace and qualityof further recovery.

Analysts at PhillipCapital intheir report said, based onchannel checks, pent-updemand with a preference forlow-margin gold coins andbars, the redemption of thegolden harvest scheme, andpurchase of jewellery for wed-dings in advance amid fear of afurther rise in the gold price arethe key reasons for greenshoots visible in jewellerydemand. The bigger share ofjewellery for weddings —despite such events being post-poned — as reported by Titan,underlines the advance buyingof such ornaments.

So, it needs to be seen if thepace of recovery is sustainable.The higher price of gold at a

time when there is uncertaintyover consumers’ income mayput pressure on jewellerydemand in the near term.

Within the jewellery seg-ment, there are little signs ofdemand for high-margin stud-ded jewellery reviving anytimesoon which may also hurtTitan’s earnings. “Lower shareof high-value studded jewellerywould weigh on Titan’s prof-itability in FY21,” say analysts atMotilal Oswal Securities, whoare also cautious on near-termdemand. Apart from jewellery,most other businesses, includ-ing watches where the recoveryrate is around 35-40 per cent,are still far from normal.

Also, given that of Titan'stotal stores, 57 per cent arelocated in metros and tier-1

cities and around 35 per centare in the worst-affectedstates of Maharashtra, Delhi,Tamil Nadu and Gujarat,reaching back to pre-Covidsales will be tough.

Among some silver linings,the company has negotiatedsignificant rental waiver/reduc-tion for the period of disrup-tion and the September quar-ter, a move that could protectits bottom line to some extent.

While management com-mentary on demand patternand recovery would be the key,Titan’s stock valuations remainexpensive. The stock, which isup 25 per cent from its Marchlows, currently trades at 1-yearforward PE valuation of 63times, a 40 per cent premiumto its five-year mean.

Muted demandfor high-valuestudded productsa major concern

Street sees no shine in Titan’s jewellery business

MF investors brace for weakreturns in closed-end schemesJASH KRIPLANIMumbai, 8 July

Mutual fund (MF) investors inclosed-end equity schemesmaturing in the calendar

year 2020 are bracing for tepidreturns, as most of these schemeshave underperformed their bench-marks, so far.

According to the data from ValueResearch, of the 14 schemes matur-ing in the next few months, 10 haveunderperformed their benchmarkssince their launch dates, and othersare largely on a par with their respec-tive benchmarks.

Experts say several of these fundswere oriented towards mid- and small-cap stocks, which have not played outas expected.

“Even within large-caps, we haveseen only a few stocks doing well.Within the mid- and small-cap seg-ments, the diversion is even wider.Some stocks have been multi-baggers,while there have been cases of sharpwealth erosion,” said KaustubhBelapurkar, director-mutual fundresearch at Morningstar.

Experts say investing in closed-endequity schemes has not worked well assome of the stock picks have failed tomatch fund managers’ expectations.Some of these schemes were also ori-ented to value stocks, however, expertssay growth investing strategies have

done better in recent years. “Several of these closed-end equity

schemes were floated in 2016-2017 afterthe markets had seen a sharp rally;investor traction was high in the back-drop of demonetisation. However,quite a few sectors and stocks are yet to

recover,” said Amol Joshi, founder ofPlan Rupee Investment Services. Hepointed out segments, such as PSUbanks, which were picked up by fundmanagers in these schemes, but are yetto see a strong recovery.

Advisors say investors can consider

re-deploying the funds after maturityof these schemes. “If these investmentsare part of equity allocation for theinvestors and these funds are not need-ed for the next two years, they can bere-invested in open-ended equityschemes,” Joshi said.

Further, talks of the discovery ofCovid-19 vaccine both in India andacross the world can continue to fuelmarket recovery, analysts say.

Industry participants sat suchschemes are unlikely to see highertraction, given weak returns and theregulator clamping down on closed-ended schemes.

According to industry sources, theSecurities and Exchange Board of Indiahas shown reservations to givingapprovals to such schemes over con-cerns of whether such schemes arebeing managed well by fund houses.

They agree that several fund houses had launched such schemesonly to add to their asset base andincentivise distributors with highupfront commissions.

Industry players say investorsshould avoid closed-end equityschemes as they don’t give any material advantage over open-endequity schemes. “These schemesforce investors to lock-in their fundsfor three-four years, and the returnsmay not meet expectations despitethe long-term commitment,” said afund manager.

SUNDAR SETHURAMANMumbai, 8 July

Rossari Biotech, a specialtychemicals company, willlaunch its ~500-crore initialpublic offering (IPO)on Monday,ending a four-month lull in theprimary market.The last IPO to hitthe domestic marketwas that of SBI Cardsand Payment Servicesin early March. TheCovid-19 pandemic andthe economic lockdown haveforced many companies tohold back their IPO plansdespite regulatory clearances.Rossari had intended tolaunch its IPO in March only,

but decided to postpone the plan.

The company onWednesday conducted mediaand analyst meetings throughthe video-conferencing serv-ice Zoom.

Rossari has reducedthe fresh issue com-

ponent from ~150crore to ~50 crore.It raised ~100 crore

through a pre-IPOplacement. The IPO

also comprises of a sec-ondary share sale of 10.5

million shares by promoters.The price band for the IPO

is ~423 to ~425 per share. Atthe top end, the IPO sizeworks out to nearly ~500 croreand implies a post-IPO marketcap of ~2,207 crore.

JASH KRIPLANIMumbai, 8 July

UTI Mutual Fund (MF) hasdecided to side-pocket expo-sure to Zee Learn (ZLL) in twoof its schemes — UTI CreditRisk Fund and UTIMedium Term Fund —after the company’s debtpapers were downgradedto below investmentgrade on Tuesday.

As of July 6, UTICredit Risk had 9 per cent(~40.77 crore) of its assetsexposed to the Essel Groupcompany. The medium-termfund had 3.02 per cent exposure(~3.4 crore).

CARE Ratings in its noteobserved according to the struc-

ture, ZLL was to pay the obliga-tions related to non-convertibledebentures (NCDs) at least 30days before the due date, and incase of payment shortfall, ZeeEntertainment Enterprises(ZEEL) would pay the balance

amount into thedebt service reserveaccount (DSRA) atleast seven daysbefore to the duedate (July 2).

“However,owing to severe

constraints in operational cash-flows, ZLL has not funded theDSRA account to date. As ofJuly 2, 2020, ZEEL also had notfunded the DSRA account,” itsaid. As a result of non-adher-ence to the structure, and non-

funding of the shortfall in NCDobligations, the rating agencysaid it would no longer give thebenefit of credit enhancementto the NCDs. The downgradefrom AA-credit enhancementto the revised rating of B withnegative outlook also factors inthe likelihood of a default onNCD payments.

Even as it favourably fac-tored in the long-standing expe-rience of promoters, strongbrand recognition in the edu-cation sector, the rating agencytook cognizance of the compa-ny applying for a moratoriumon term loan repayment andworking capital facilities withits banks as a Covid-19 reliefmeasure, permitted by theReserve Bank of India.

Several of these were oriented towards mid, small-cap stocks, which did not play out as expected

Rossari Biotech to end IPO lull amid pandemic

UTI MF to side-pocket Zee Learn debt exposure

1

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The SmartInvestorMUMBAI |

THURSDAY, 9 JULY 2020

QUICK TAKE: STRONG UPSIDE POTENTIAL FOR UPLShares of UPL are up 9% since June, slightly less thanthe Sensex’s 12% rise. However, synergy benefits fromthe integration of Arysta, leadership in high-marginproducts, good outlook for its key North Americabusiness and debt reduction augur well. Analystsforesee up to 50% upside for the stock

“Another notable US corporate bankruptcy:BrooksBrothers. Whether your focus is short-term, long-term or both, this issue should bekept front and center. Impacts jobs, real estateand supply side (to name a few) as well aslimits central banks’ ability to shield investors”

MOHAMED A EL-ERIAN, chief economic advisor, Allianz

While UTI CreditRisk has 9%exposure, theMedium Termfund has 3.02%exposure

POOR PERFORMANCENumber of closed-end equity schemes

Source: Value Research

Maturingin CY20 14 Underperforming

since launch 10

ILLUSTRATION: BINAY SINHA

PMS schemes gain in June; 70% beatNifty over one year

The schemes extended by portfo-lio management services(PMS) ended with gains inJune but a majority ofthem underperformedthe Nifty. Of the 170strategies tracked byPMSBazaar, 68 beatthe Nifty, which hadgained 7.5 per cent dur-ing the month. GlobeCapital Market Value wasthe best performer, withreturns of 23.4 per cent.

For the quarter, about a thirdof the schemes managed to beat thebenchmark index (up 19.8 per cent for thethree months ended June 30), with aver-age returns of 17 per cent for the large-cap, 17.4 per cent for multi-cap, 20.2 percent for mid-cap, and 24.1 per cent for

small-cap categories. The topperformers include Nine

Rivers Capital AurumSmall Cap Opportunities

(40.2 per cent) andRight HorizonsMinerva India Under-Served (28 per cent).

For a one-yearperiod, 70 per cent of

the PMS schemes havebeaten the Nifty, which

slid by 12.6 per cent.Average returns of all the

categories ranged between -5.9per cent and -13.3 per cent. The best per-formers include Kotak Pharma (36.6 percent), Valcreate Inv. ManagersLifesciences & Special Opp. (36.1 per cent)and Wize Market Analytics Capital Mind -Momentum (19.8 per cent). ASHLEY COUTINHO

LEADERBOARD Schemes thatoutperformed in June

Returns (%)ASSET MANAGER SCHEME CATEGORY 3-month 6-monthKarma Capital Long Only India Multi-cap 56.7 -16.6Advisors Public EquityGlobe Capital Market Value Multi-cap 43.05 8.53Nine Rivers Capital Aurum Small Cap Opp Small-cap 40.2 -25.4Equirus Securities Long Horizon Fund Small-& mid-cap 39.64 5.85Kotak Pharma Sector fund 34.3 36.6Motilal Oswal IOP V2 Small- & mid-cap 30.92 -12.89ICICI Pru Largecap Portfolio Large-cap 30.77 -10.57ICICI Pru Contra Portfolio Multi-cap 28.4 -7.58Asit CMehta Ace Multicap Multi-cap 28.0 -17.3Source: PMSBazaar

Over a dozen schemes to mature in CY20

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