anima master 031414 - borsa italiana · anima is the largest independent asset manager in italy,...
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Anima Holding Animating Italy’s Savings
Anima Holding - Key data EUR M 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016ENet management fees 125.0 148.0 159.4 173.2 179.1Total net revenues 165.1 220.2 207.6 224.0 232.0EBITDA 105.8 158.8 147.7 163.5 170.0EBIT 85.4 187.3 124.1 145.1 153.5Pre-tax profit 61.7 165.0 108.9 138.2 147.6Adj. net profit 56.9 94.4 91.8 107.9 112.7Net debt /-net cash 219.7 44.3 -9.4 -92.6 -174.5
A: actual; E: estimates; Source: Company data and Intesa Sanpaolo Research
An independent asset manager leveraging on banking distribution. Anima is the largest independent asset manager in Italy, with EUR 46.6Bn assets under management (AuM) at end-2013 and approx. 1M customers. Anima is a pure asset manager, not vertically integrated with distribution, and has agreements with strategic partners and shareholders (Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Banca Popolare di Milano and Credito Valtellinese), expiring between 2027 and 2030, integrated by more than 130 agreements with other banks and financial advisors networks.
Positives. Anima has a well-recognised brand and can count on a long-standing and experienced management team. We believe the group could benefit from the favourable growth prospects of the Italian asset management industry, mainly related to: (i) high Italian household wealth; (ii) under penetration of financial assets (only 42% of total) and of AuM on household financial assets (only 26% vs. >40% for France, Germany and the UK); and (iii) low weighting of pension funds and life products (only 18% of total Italian household financial assets vs. a median of 35% for other European countries), which could support growth in the institutional segment. In our opinion, Anima is in a good position to exploit these significant growth prospects, leveraging on commercial efforts by banks to push commission-driven margins and on its manufacturing capabilities for institutional clients. In our opinion, the group, whose current structure is the result of a successful M&A story, could also benefit from potential external growth opportunities in a sector consolidation scenario.
Valuation. We used an FCFE model to value Anima and ran a peers’ comparison as a cross check. With a cost of equity range of 8.75-10.25% and a perpetual growth rate of 0.75-1.25%, our model suggests an equity value range of EUR 1,057-1,306M. As for the multiples analysis, we believe that a valuation based on selected European peers’ P/AuM (product factories, like Anima, with similar profitability on AuM) could also be an appropriate methodology: an average 2014 P/AuM would lead to an implied value of EUR 1,219M, which falls within our FCFE valuation range. The average of a 2014 P/E valuation (based on selected Italian and European peers) and the abovementioned 2014 P/AuM would indicate an implied valuation of EUR 1,306M, in line with the top of our FCFE valuation range.
Risks. The main risks to Anima’s equity story and our earnings model, in our view, are represented by: 1) a slower than expected Italian economic recovery, which could negatively impact the household savings rate and mutual fund investments’ attractiveness for customers; 2) a potentially negative financial market performance weighing on the group's AuM; 3) a potential downsizing of strategic partners' banking networks, which could negatively impact the distribution of Anima's products. However, we believe that the group could offset it through a potential increased penetration of the strategic partners’ client base; 4) financial advisors' networks potentially gaining market share in AuM distribution vs. banking channels; and 5) a potential increased level of competition in the asset management business.
14 March 2014
IPO Report
Asset Gatherers
Intesa SanpaoloResearch Department
Elena Perini, CFA Research Analyst +39 02 8794 9814
Equity Company Note
Financial Team Manuela Meroni Elena Perini, CFA
Anima Holding 14 March 2014
2 Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department
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Anima Holding 14 March 2014
Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department 3
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Contents
Investment Summary 4
Key risks 5
Valuation 6
FCFE model 6
Peers comparison 6
SWOT Analysis 8
Group Profile 9
History 9
Shareholder structure 9
Organisational structure 10
Management 11
Business Model and Commercial Performance 12
Mutual Funds: Product offer 12
Distribution channels 14
Market Analysis 19
Competitive positioning 19
Italian Asset Management Industry back to growth 19
Strategy 24
Recent Financial Results 26
Profitability margins 26
Fee structure 27
Earnings Outlook 30
AuM 30
P&L estimates 31
Balance sheet 34
Financials 35
Anima Holding 14 March 2014
4 Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department
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Investment Summary
Anima is the largest independent asset manager in Italy, with EUR 46.6Bn assets under management (AuM) at end-2013 (from EUR 40.7Bn at December 2012), up to EUR 47.34Bn at end-January 2014 (source: Assogestioni monthly report) and approx. 1M customers. Anima is a pure asset manager, not vertically integrated with distribution, with a business model based on long-lasting agreements with strategic banking partners and shareholders (BMPS, BPM and CreVal).
According to Prometeia projections, the Italian retail AuM should grow at a 2013-16 CAGR of +7.5%. We believe that the main growth drivers for the asset management business in the Italian retail market can be summarised as follows:
High Italian household wealth;
High level of net wealth on disposable income, combined with a low level of private debt to disposable income;
High weighting of real estate wealth compared to financial assets, which only represent 42% of total household wealth;
Under penetration of AuM, which only weigh for 26% on total household financial assets vs. >40% for France, Germany and the UK, while 70% is represented by administered assets, liquidity and deposits (in our view, the current low-yield environment could favour a switch from government and banking bonds to asset management products).
We believe that Anima is in a good position to exploit the abovementioned growth potential as:
The company has a well-recognised brand in the Italian asset management industry;
Despite not having a proprietary distribution network, it can leverage on strong relationships and distribution agreements (termination dates between 2027 and 2030) with strategic banking partners (BMPS, BPM and CreVal), integrated by more than 130 agreements with other retail banks and financial advisors (FA) networks;
The banking channel, which represented more than 90% of Anima’s Retail AuM at end-2013, reported positive net inflows in mutual funds in 2013, after several years of outflows. We believe that this positive trend should continue as banking commercial policies, aimed at boosting commission-driven margins, currently favour the asset management business.
As regards the institutional segment, we believe that Anima could mainly leverage on the under penetration of pension funds and life products, only representing 18% of total Italian household financial assets. This level is definitely below that shown by other European countries and could significantly increase due to the “pension gap” for young people. According to Prometeia projections, the Italian institutional AuM should grow at a 2013-16 CAGR of +5.5%
In our opinion, the group, whose current structure is the result of a successful M&A story, could also benefit from potential external growth opportunities in a sector consolidation scenario. We highlight that the Italian asset management industry is still highly fragmented as, according to Assogestioni data, although the top 20 players account for more than 85% (with the first ten players managing approx. 75% of total industry AuM), 43 players have less than EUR 10Bn AuM each.
Our 2014E-16E AuM estimates factor in a 2013A-16E CAGR of +6.4%, mainly driven by net inflows, therefore continuing a trend already started in 2013. We estimate a significant growth for collective products’ contribution to total AuM (79% at end-2016E from 74% at end-2013A), while we do not expect a significant change in the retail and institutional weighting over the next three years (60/40% at end-2013A). Our 2014E-16E P&L estimates factor in a 6.5% 2013A-16E CAGR for net management fees, while, due to more cautious assumptions on performance fees and ancillary commissions, we point to a 2013A-16E CAGR of 1.7% for total
Largest independent asset manager in Italy
Key drivers: organic growth in…
Retail business
Institutional business
Potential M&A opportunities
Earnings outlook
Anima Holding 14 March 2014
Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department 5
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net revenues. Thanks to expected good cost control, we forecast an EBITDA margin (calculated on gross revenues) up to 30.4% in 2016E from 28.5% in 2013A, and a 2013A-16E CAGR of 5.2% for adj. EBIT and 6.1% for adj. net profit. We estimate a dividend pay-out of 39.9% in 2014E, up to 44.8% in 2016E. According to our projections, Anima should be slightly cash-positive at end-2014E.
We used an FCFE model to value Anima and ran a peers’ comparison as a cross check. With a cost of equity range of 8.75-10.25% and a perpetual growth rate of 0.75-1.25%, our model suggests an equity value range of EUR 1,057-1,306M.
In our multiples analysis, we applied a valuation based on selected European peers’ P/AuM, which we consider to be an appropriate methodology, due to the similar business model (we selected product factories, close to that of Anima), with a similar profitability on AuM. An average 2014 P/AuM would lead to an implied value of EUR 1,219M, which falls within our FCFE valuation range. The average of a 2014 P/E valuation (based on selected Italian and European peers) and the abovementioned 2014 P/AuM would highlight an implied valuation of EUR 1,306M, in line with the high-end of our FCFE valuation range.
Key risks
We believe the main risks to Anima’s equity story and our earnings model are the following:
Top-down risks
Anima’s business and economic performance could be negatively impacted by: (i) a potentially slower than expected Italian economic recovery, which would affect the household savings trend and mutual fund investments’ attractiveness for customers; and (ii) a potentially negative financial market performance weighing on the group's AuM and also affecting mutual fund investments' attractiveness for the group’s final customers.
Sector risks
At a sector level, we see two risks: (i) financial advisors' networks potentially gaining market share in AuM distribution vs. banking channels, which are mainly used by Anima; and (ii) a potentially increased level of competition in the asset management business, negatively affecting margins, which we currently consider a minor risk.
Company-specific risk: High dependence on strategic banking partners
Anima’s distribution is highly dependent on strategic partners (BMPS, BPM and CreVal), which contributed 81% of total Retail AuM and 78% of total Retail net management fees in 2013. Anima’s business performance and profitability could be negatively affected by a potential downsizing of the strategic partners’ branch networks. However, an increased penetration of the strategic partners' client base would offset the potentially negative impact of a branch network downsizing. According to company indications, their customers have on average EUR 25k invested in Anima funds, which translates into a wide potential of penetration among the 7.9M customers of the three strategic partners and also with clients of other distributors. As regards the institutional segment, only two counterparties, AXA BMPS and Covea/Bipiemme Vita represented approx. 53% of institutional AuM at end-2013.
Valuation
Anima Holding 14 March 2014
6 Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department
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Valuation
We believe that an FCFE model and a peer comparison are appropriate methods to value Anima Holding. We highlight that these two methods give an indication based on a long-term analysis and do not imply a near-term assessment of the likely performance of the shares.
On the basis of our FCFE valuation and with a multiples analysis as a cross-check, we obtain an overall valuation range of EUR 1,057-1,306M.
FCFE model
Our three-stage FCFE model factors in:
Our explicit estimates for the short-term period 2014E-16E (we calculated the annual net margin on average AuM as adj. net profit – gross of PPA amortisation – on average yearly AuM);
A seven-year transition period 2017E-23E with: (i) an average AuM yoy growth gradually converging from the average 8.1% in 2013E-16E (+5.6% in 2016E) to our long-term assumption range; (ii) an average FCFE net margin on AuM approximating to our assumed sustainable long-term margin of 0.15% (from an average 0.20% in 2014E-16E).
The main assumptions of our three-stage FCFE model are summarised in the following tables:
Anima Holding – Cost of equity calculation (base case, %) Anima Holding – Key assumptions (%) Risk-free rate 3.50Equity risk premium 5.50Beta (x)* 1.09Cost of equity 9.50
Average AuM 2013-16E CAGR 8.11Average annual 2014E-16E net margin on AuM 0.20Long-term average AuM growth 0.75-1.25Long-term net margin 0.15
Source: * Factset and Intesa Sanpaolo Research estimates Source: Intesa Sanpaolo Research estimates
Our beta calculation is based on the weighted average (related to market cap) 5-year adjusted beta of the selected peers (Azimut, Banca Generali and Mediolanum in Italy; Schroders, Aberdeen, Henderson and GAM Holding in Europe).
Assuming a cost of equity range of 8.75-10.25% and a long-term average AuM growth rate ranging from 0.75 to 1.25%, we obtain a valuation range of EUR 1,057-1,306M.
Anima Holding – FCFE model: sensitivity analysis EUR M Long-term growth (%) Cost of equity (%) 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.508.00 1,318.9 1,359.3 1,399.8 1,441.4 1,484.98.75 1,206.8 1,240.0 1,272.8 1,306.2 1,340.79.50 1,113.0 1,140.7 1,167.8 1,195.9 1,223.110.25 1,033.3 1,056.8 1,079.5 1,102.2 1,125.311.00 964.8 984.8 1,004.1 1,023.3 1,042.6
Source: Intesa Sanpaolo Research estimates
Peers comparison
As a cross-check to our FCFE model, we also used a multiples valuation.
We applied a valuation based on selected European peers’ P/AuM, which we consider an appropriate methodology as, although the asset management business is highly differentiated from country to country, the selected product factories (Schroders, Aberdeen, Henderson and GAM Holding), have a business model close to that of Anima with similar profitability on AuM. Should we apply the average 2014 P/AuM of the selected European peers, we would obtain an implied fair value of EUR 1,219M, which would fall within our FCFE valuation range.
Key assumptions
Peers selection and multiples valuation
Anima Holding 14 March 2014
Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department 7
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We also considered a P/E valuation approach and extended our peers’ comparison to the Italian market, represented by the three listed asset gatherers (Azimut, Banca Generali and Mediolanum), which however have a different business model from Anima, as:
They have their own FA distribution networks;
They serve higher-end client segments (though taking into account that Mediolanum’s client base is closer to that of Anima);
Azimut mainly distributes in-house products, while both Banca Generali and Mediolanum adopt open-architecture approaches.
A P/E valuation approach based on selected Italian (Azimut, Banca Generali and Mediolanum) and European peers (Schroders, Aberdeen, Henderson and GAM Holding) would lead to an implied valuation of EUR 1,393M, above our FCFE valuation range, while the average implied valuation of our multiples-based valuation approaches (P/E and P/AuM) would be in line with the high-end of our FCFE valuation range.
Anima Holding – Valuation based on 2014 average multiples EUR M 2014E2014E adj. net profit 91.82014E AuM 50,287(A) Implied valuation on average 2014E P/E of Italian and European peers (15.2x) 1,392.7(B) Implied valuation on European average 2014E P/AuM (2.42%) 1,219.4Average of (A) and (B) 1,306.0
Notes: multiples priced on 10 March 2014; valuations based on weighted (on market cap) average 2014E P/E and 2014E P/AuM of selected peers; Source: Intesa Sanpaolo Research estimates and Factset
In the table below, we show the multiples and key financial indicators of Anima’s selected peers.
Selected data on peers Currency Mkt Cap (M) AuM (Bn) Adj. Net profit (M) Net margin (%) 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013Anima EUR 40.7 46.6 56.9 94.4 0.16 0.22Azimut EUR 3,584 19.6 24.0 160.6 155.8 0.89 0.72Banca Generali EUR 2,632 26.2 29.1 129.2 141.3 0.52 0.51Mediolanum* EUR 4,788 44.7 49.9 351.0 329.2 0.83 0.70Schroders GBP 7,486 212.0 262.9 283.0 371.0 0.13 0.16Aberdeen GBP 4,511 187.2 200.4 275.0 386.0 0.15 0.20Henderson GBP 2,815 65.7 74.5 126.8 125.1 0.19 0.18GAM Holding CHF 2,614 116.1 122.8 162.0 201.0 0.14 0.17
Notes: market cap updated as at 10 March 2014; Italians’ AuM including administered assets. Source: *Intesa Sanpaolo Research estimates on 2013 (AuM incl. administered assets), Thomson Reuters, Company data, Factset and Intesa Sanpaolo Research elaboration on Factset data
We attach below 2014 and 2015 multiples and net margins of selected Italian and European peers.
Peers comparison P/E (x) P/AuM (%) Net margin (%)
2014E 2015E 2014E 2015E 2014E 2015EAzimut* 19.8 17.1 12.77 11.58 0.72 0.73Banca Generali* 16.4 14.6 8.26 7.56 0.53 0.54Mediolanum* 13.3 12.8 9.13 8.64 0.70 0.69Italian average 16.2 14.6 10.10 9.34 0.65 0.66 Schroders 16.4 14.8 2.61 2.39 0.16 0.16Aberdeen 11.1 9.7 1.42 1.35 0.17 0.15Henderson 16.6 15.1 3.74 3.32 0.22 0.23GAM Holding 13.0 11.5 2.13 1.98 0.16 0.16European average 14.6 13.1 2.42 2.22 0.18 0.18Overall average 15.2 13.7 5.16 4.76 0.38 0.38
Notes: priced on 10 March 2014; Italian, European and overall average for P/E and P/AuM weighted for market caps; Italians’ AuM including administered assets. Source: *Intesa Sanpaolo Research, Factset and Intesa Sanpaolo Research elaboration on Factset data
Anima Holding 14 March 2014
8 Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department
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SWOT Analysis Strengths Weakness
Largest independent player in the Italian asset management industry;
Anima is mostly active in Italy, which has a household wealth aligned with the richest European countries;
Long-lasting distribution agreements with strategic partners in the retail segment, integrated by more than 130 distribution agreements with retail banks and FA networks;
Well-recognised brand;
Strong manufacturing capabilities for the institutional segment;
Long-standing management team;
Successful M&A story.
Distribution not integrated with production (Anima does not have its own distribution network);
Anima’s retail client base is limited to Italy;
Distribution highly dependent on banking strategic partners;
Banking groups downsizing their branch networks.
Opportunities Threats
Room to grow for the Italian asset management industry, relying on high financial wealth of Italian households and under penetration of asset management products;
Italian banks’ commercial policies (aimed at boosting commission revenues) supportive for asset management;
Improving market share on higher-end client segments;
Potential M&A deals within likely sector consolidation.
Slower than expected Italian economic recovery;
Potentially negative financial market performance;
FA networks gaining market share on total AuM vs. banks;
Potential increase in competition.
Source: Intesa Sanpaolo Research elaboration
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As regards selecf traditional anustomised servA networks anroduct developble to cover theams, 38 peopunds (12 Equitartnership wit
nstitutional maroduct desk) racking Error a
Anima Holding
ource: Company dat
THIS DOC
rs of Anima pelieve that thecing the profil
nal structure
cture is simplewhich in turn
gement Comp
Management
ficant portion d in Ireland an
cted areas, thend digital marvices for differend institutionapment busineshe needs of bople work in Mty, 8 Fixed Incth Russell Inveandates. Therein Ireland, wo
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ture
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company on tthe IPO is ext
up and also p
with Anima Hool of:
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eam can counand services, wustomers and d
regards the pated, with 10 and internatio 2 FTEs in cenced and 2 Mu
hile 8 people nvestment teang to both a
RIBUTED IN TH
the Borsa Italiatending the owproviding some
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t on 26 FTEs, while the salesdistributors (BMproduct offerinpeople based
onal players. Antral functionsultimanager, twork on Ret
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As regards the ), of which 24he latter supptail mandates ple (excluding
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tesa Sanpao
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% secondary ture to the the current
Anima SGR
in Italy. 24
integration Es) provides eVal, banks, an in-house 3 in Dublin, investment
4 in mutual ported by a
and 4 on Structured with Low
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Anima Holdin14 March 201
Departmen
ng 14
nt
Anima Holding 14 March 2014
Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department 11
THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN THE UNITED STATES, CANADA OR JAPAN.
Management
The company can count on a long-standing management team, with a strong track record in terms of both organic growth and M&A.
Anima Holding – Management team Marco Carreri CEO Anima Holding and Anima
Mr Carreri joined in 2009. He was formerly UBI Pramerica’s CEO (1999-2008).
Alessandro Melzi d’Eril CFO
Mr Melzi d’Eril joined in 2011. He was formerly an investment director with Clessidra (2004-11).
Pierluigi Giverso Head of Business Development (Holding) and Marketing
Mr Giverso joined in 2009. He was formerly a manager with McKinsey (2003-09).
Claudio Tosato Head of products
Mr Tosato joined in 2001. He was formerly a risk manager with Deutsche Bank Asset Management SGR (1998-2001).
Armando Carcaterra Head of Investments
Mr Carcaterra joined in 1996. He was formerly a portfolio manager with Azimut (1990-96).
Emanuele Patti Head of Operations
Mr Patti joined in 2001. He was formerly a manager with Mediolanum (1990-2001).
Davide Sosio General Manager Ireland
Mr Sosio joined in 2003. He was formerly an auditor with PWC.
Davide Gatti Head of Sales
Mr Gatti joined in 2003. He was formerly head of the equity desk with Cofiri Sim (2001-03).
Source: Company data
1
B
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otes: mutual funds eontribution (acquisitiutual funds and EUR
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he group has unds of hedge
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THIS DOC
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in the asset mual mandates.
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M at end-201pension fund resent 74% o
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breakdown 201
unds; 2012 benefiteand Lussemburgo Geual mandates). Sourc
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funds), with 18
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NOT BE DISTR
mercial P
business, with
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11-13 (EUR Bn)
ed from CreVal estioni: EUR +600Mce: Company data
13 institutiona
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benchmark), w
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RIBUTED IN TH
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UR 4.3Bn AuM
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ma Holding – N
e: Company data
.3Bn mandate
a different w
9 other funds
and EUR 13.9
s and EUR 3.7
M at end-2013;
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ow weigh 46
tesa Sanpao
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om mutual
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011. Anima
Net inflow by p
es, equal to
eighting of
s (including
Bn AuM at
Bn AuM at
uM at end-
% on total
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A OR JAPAN.
product (EUR Bn
Collective prtotal Anima A
Mutual Fundby commerci
Product inno
Anima Holdin14 March 201
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oducts: 74% oAuM
ds’ breakdownial type
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ng 14
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ource: Company da
n 2013 Animadapt to new mroduct in 201arget date boorporate bondbsolute return ate” funds, w
AuM are autootential alternotential decline
According to cof performanceave 4 or 5 star
Anima Holding
ource: Company pre
aolo Researc
THIS DOCU
– Mutual Fund
ta
a launched 32market opportu12 and 2013 ond funds, wds) and “Tragu
component bhich were launmatically reinvative investmee in AuM).
ompany indicae and awards. rs (see chart be
- Awards
esentation
ch Departme
UMENT MAY N
ds: product offe
new mutual unities and trawas represen
with a diversifiuardo Alto Potased on flagshnched in 2012vested at maent in a corpo
ations, Anima p47% of AuM
elow).
ent NOT BE DISTRIB
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funds, confirmanslate them innted by “Traged basket of
tenziale” (targhip ANIMA Alto2 and 2013, thturity in anotrate bond or
products also of Anima rate
BUTED IN THE
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Source
ming the grounto new produuardo” funds selected per
get date bond o Potenziale fuhey have a fivether Anima mgovernment (a
have a distincted funds (corre
UNITED STAT
ma Holding – M
e: Company data
up’s capabilityucts. The mosts, including “Tipheral governfunds, with a
unds). As regae-year maturit
mutual fund, and therefore
tive track recoesponding to
ES, CANADA O
Mutual funds by
to quickly t successful Traguardo” nment and “satellite” rds “Target y, but their avoiding a avoiding a
rd in terms EUR 8.7Bn)
A1
OR JAPAN.
by commercial t
Anima Holdin14 March 201
1
type (%)
ng 14
13
1
InimC2ye
A
N
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Aof
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n terms of assemportance in tAGR of -16%5%, with a 20ear CAGR.
Anima Holding
ote: 2012 data inclu
Distribution c
Anima serves bf total AuM, e
Anima Holding
ource: Company da
THIS DOC
et class, in thethe asset mix
%), while Flexib011-13 CAGR i
– Mutual fund
uding CreVal contrib
channels
oth retail and qual to EUR 27
– Net inflow b
ta
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e past two yea(from 10% t
ble funds signin assets: +79.
ds by asset clas
bution. Source: Com
institutional c7.7Bn AuM.
by channel
NOT BE DISTR
ars Money Mato 5% of totanificantly incre3%). Bond fun
s (%)
mpany data
lients. At end-
RIBUTED IN TH
arket funds pral mutual fundeased their connds’ assets also
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rogressively redds, recording ntribution (froo recorded a 1
represented ap
tesa Sanpao
TES, CANADA
duced their a 2011-13 m 11% to 5.6% two-
pprox. 60%
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Mutual Fundasset class
Anima Holdin14 March 201
Departmen
ds’ AuM by
ng 14
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R
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he agreementreferential acce
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Anima Holding
ource: Company pre
he agreementustomers and ustomers updaegions of the cients in total. otentially nega
aolo Researc
THIS DOCU
prox. 1M clienof EUR 100/20
on, relying on t
– Retail agreegreement rom Until 009 2030 011 2030 013 2027 ts with BMPS were
ts (which do ess to the thre
ution and mark
and co-market
of dedicated t
ored sales and
in partner ban
– Strategic pa
esentation
ts with the stmore than 3
ated at YE12), country (as shoA theoretical
ative impact co
ch Departme
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nts, mainly rep00k. In order tothree long-term
ments with baP
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signed in 2010. Sou
not entail aee banking gro
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ting initiatives;
training for par
marketing sup
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rtners: exampl
trategic partne3,600 branchewith a significown in the fowider access
oming from a b
ent NOT BE DISTRIB
presented by o serve the retam strategic dist
nking strategicProducts
tual Funds s & retail mandas & retail manda
urce: Company data
ny “change-ooup networks a
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;
rtner banks’ em
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BUTED IN THE
family and afail segment, Atribution partn
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;
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.
s
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UNITED STAT
ffluent clients,Anima predomi
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Anima acceswith BPM’s
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ES, CANADA O
with total nantly uses
Anima's AuM (%) 39 31 11
n exclusive
ss to 7.9M number of and Central as 1M retail uld offset a by banks.
A1
OR JAPAN.
Strategic par
Anima Holdin14 March 201
1
rtners
ng 14
15
1
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A
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Anima Holding
ource: Company pre
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Anima Holding
ource: Company da
n addition to thgreements wit
AuM at end-20.3Bn AuM at e
Anima Holding channel (EUR B
ource: Company da
THIS DOC
– Strategic pa
esentation
’s strategic paees.
– Retail AuM b
ta
he strategic bath retail banks013) and finanend-2013).
– Retail net inn)
ta
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rtners: distribu
rtners contribu
by channel (20
anking partners (approx. 2/3 ncial advisors’
flow trend by
NOT BE DISTR
ution networks
uted 81% of t
13, %)
r agreements, of the 50 largnetworks (9
distribution
RIBUTED IN TH
s
total Retail Au
Anim
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Source
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uM and 78% o
ma Holding - Re
e: Company data
ore than 130 nking groups, argest FA netw
ma Holding – SR Bn)
e: Company data
tesa Sanpao
TES, CANADA
of total net
etail net manage
distribution EUR 2.8Bn
works, EUR
trategic Partne
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ement fees by c
ers: 2013 net in
Other retail bnetworks
Anima Holdin14 March 201
Departmen
channel (2013, %
nflow by produ
banks and FA
ng 14
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uct
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A
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Anima Holding
ource: Company da
nstitutional
At end-2013, t8.8Bn, up fromroup provides
was up to 54nstitutional clieroducts and End generates E
Anima Holding
ource: Company da
he key countgreement withnked – target 020 on EUR 3.otal assets for011 and EUR 8
aolo Researc
THIS DOCU
– Retail distrib
ta
he institutionam EUR 12Bn aa diversified i
% at end-20ents. Other inUR 1.5Bn PropEUR 10.5M net
– Institutional
ta
terparties for h BMPS until 2date 2018-20 .8Bn mandatesr insurance-rela8.1Bn in 2012.
ch Departme
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bution: other n
al segment rept end-2011), winstitutional of
013 from 43%nstitutional clprietary Financt revenues per
AuM by type
insurance re2018 and mut- and other p
s on reserves aated products .
ent NOT BE DISTRIB
etworks
presented appwith assets heffering for insu% at end-201ients includedce mandate fo
year.
of solutions (%
lated producttual funds wra
products) and Cand mutual fun
were EUR 10
BUTED IN THE
prox. 40% of ld in mutual fuurance compa11), pension fd EUR 3Bn wor BMPS, which
%)
ts are AXA Mapped into “VCovea/BPM (agnds wrapped i
0.1Bn at end-2
UNITED STAT
Anima’s total unds of EUR 1
anies (whose cfunds, banks
wrapping in Ah will expire in
MPS (EUR 0.Value Performagreement withnto unit linked
2013, from EU
ES, CANADA O
AuM (EUR 0.6Bn. The ontribution and other
Anima own n mid-2016
9Bn under ance” unit-h BPM until d products). UR 5.2Bn in
A1
OR JAPAN.
Significant ininsurance we
Insurance-redriven by BM
Anima Holdin14 March 201
1
ncrease in eighting
lated productsMPS and BPM
ng 14
17
s
1
A
So
In20be
A
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Invs
A
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8
Anima Holding
ource: Company da
n 2012 and 20013 other melonging to Ba
Anima Holding
ource: Company da
n 2013, insuras. a 54% weig
Anima Holding –
ource: Company da
THIS DOC
– Institutional
ta
013 AXA MPSandates suffe
anca Etruria gro
– Institutional
ta
nce-related prht on total ins
– Institutional A
ta
CUMENT MAY
insurance pro
S and Covea/Bered from a oup.
net inflow tre
oducts generatitutional AuM
AuM by client an
NOT BE DISTR
ducts AuM by
BPM drove nebig outflow f
end by client an
ated 37% of toM.
nd product (201
RIBUTED IN TH
client (%)
et inflows for from a single
nd product (EU
otal institution
13, %) Animand
Source
Int
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institutional se institutional
R Bn)
nal net manag
ma Holding – Inproduct (2013
e: Company data
tesa Sanpao
TES, CANADA
egment. In customer,
ement fees
nstitutional net, %)
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t management
Anima Holdin14 March 201
Departmen
t fees by client
ng 14
nt
In
M
C
Aa dafrpea
Aa dM
A A
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Market A
Competitive
Anima is the lea3.6% market
ata, up to 6.ragmented, aslayers managinach.
Anima’s businesproduct fact
istribution netMediolanum, w
Anima Holding Pr
nima In
zimut Manca Generali O
Mediolanum "ar
otes: HNWI High Ne
he main compmanagement co
talian Asset
According to Awhile at end-20nd of 2007. T
management inehman bankruurrently seems5.4% for total
talian Asset Ma
ource: Assogestioni
aolo Researc
THIS DOCU
Analysis
positioning
ading independshare on tota
3% in open-e, although theng approx. 75%
ss model is comtory only, whtworks. In term
which also targe
– Business moroducts
n-House
Mainly "In-HouseOpen-architecture
Best Brands" as rchitecture approet-Worth Individuals
petitors for Aniompanies belo
Manageme
Assogestioni’s 013 the total asThis was mainndustry was a
uptcy), and 201 to be back to AuM and mu
anagement Ind
ch Departme
UMENT MAY N
dent asset manal AuM at endend funds. The top 20 play% of total indu
mpletely differhile Azimut, Bms of clients ets traditional
odel vs. Italian l
e" e
alternative to opoach . Source: Companie
ma, which maonging to bank
nt Industry
quarterly datassets held in mnly due to twaffected by th11, with the ne significant grotual funds, res
dustry - AuM y
ent NOT BE DISTRIB
nager in Italy b-December 20he Italian asseyers account foustry AuM), 43
rent from listedBanca Generaserved, the clbanks’ custom
listed asset gatDistributNo propr(among wOwn FA Own FA
pen Own FA
s’ data and Intesa S
ainly operates tking groups.
back to gro
a, in 2007-13mutual funds w
o very difficulhe internationaegative impactowth, as showspectively, acco
early trend (EU
BUTED IN THE
by AuM (EUR 4013, accordinget managemenor more than 3 players have
d Italian asset ali and Mediolosest listed p
mers.
therers ion rietary network, which 3 strateginetwork network
network
Sanpaolo Research e
through the ba
owth
, total AuM rwere still belowlt years: 2008al financial crt of the sovere
wn by the 2011ording to Asso
UR Bn)
UNITED STAT
46.6Bn at end- to Assogestiont industry is 85% (with thless than EUR
gatherers as itolanum have eer could be
agreements witc partners)
elaboration
anking channe
recorded a 2.8w the level reco8, when the Itrisis (subprimeign debt crisis.-13 CAGR of gestioni data.
ES, CANADA O
-2013) with oni monthly
still highly he first ten 10Bn AuM
t represents their own considered
Ch banks M
MAsiM
el, are asset
8% CAGR, rded at the talian asset e crisis and The sector 19.2% and
A1
OR JAPAN.
Clients served Mainly family and
Mainly affluent aAffluent, upper aignificant portio
Mainly lower affl
Leading indemanager
Pure asset mproprietary dnetwork
Anima Holdin14 March 201
1
d affluent
nd HNWI affluent, n of HNWI uent and affluen
ependent asse
manager with ndistribution
ng 14
19
nt
et
no
2
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It
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3Q
It
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AAinthfa
20
n 2012, the reerformance (2ositive), while 013.
talian Asset Ma
ource: Assogestioni
Q12A represen
talian Asset Ma
ource: Assogestioni
According to PrAuM market shnstitutionals reche positive buactors.
THIS DOC
ecovery of asse2012 total Au
the recovery
anagement Ind
nted the turnin
anagement Ind
rometeia projehould record acording a com
usiness momen
CUMENT MAY
ets under manuM net inflow
of net inflow
dustry – Net inf
ng point for m
dustry – Net inf
ctions (“Osserva 2013-16 CAG
mpounded annntum for the
NOT BE DISTR
nagement wasw negative, wws was the ma
flows’ yearly tr
utual funds’ n
flows’ quarterl
vatorio sul rispGR of +6.5%,ual growth of sector to con
RIBUTED IN TH
s mainly drivewhile mutual fain driver of m
rend (EUR Bn)
et inflows.
ly trend (EUR B
parmio delle fa, driven by Re+5.5% in the
ntinue, thanks
Int
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n by the positfunds were omutual funds’
Bn)
amiglie 2013”)tail (+7.5% C
e same period. s to a mix of
tesa Sanpao
TES, CANADA
tive market nly slightly growth in
, the Italian AGR), with We expect favourable
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A OR JAPAN.
Net inflows: turning poin
Growth drive
Anima Holdin14 March 201
Departmen
3Q12 the t
ers:
ng 14
nt
In
Ita
It
NoBa
Inp
It
NoOE
ReofEufrfr
Torepe(mco
ntesa Sanpa
alian househol
talian househo
otes: Real Assets datanks, FEF, Assogestio
n addition, Italyrivate debt on
talian net wea
ote: UK data 2010; ECD data (2011)
eal estate inveffer room for urisko survey, rom 25% in Mrom 19%.
otal assets unepresent only 2enetration levemainly includinountries. The c
aolo Researc
THIS DOCU
ld wealth is ali
old wealth (EUR
ta updated at 2011;oni, Gfk Eurisko
y also has a higdisposable inc
lth on disposab
Source: Bank of Italy
estments remaa potential re
the preferenceMay 2012, whi
nder managem26% of Italian els for France,
ng governmentcurrent low-yie
ch Departme
UMENT MAY N
gned with the
R Tn)
; financial assets upd
gh level of netcome.
ble income (x)
y (Suppl. Bollettino
ain predominaebalancing in e for real estatle, in the sam
ment (mutual households’ t Germany and
t bonds) is moreld environmen
ent NOT BE DISTRIB
richest Europe
dated as of 1Q13. S
t wealth to dis
Statistico Dec. 2013
nt vs. financiathe coming ye or house inve period, finan
funds, insuratotal financial ad UK. In Italy, re than doublent could favour
BUTED IN THE
ean countries.
Source: OECD, Natio
posable incom
Italia
3) on Source
al products (58years, as, accovestment declinncial product
ance investmeassets, comparthe percentag
e that of the avr a switch tow
UNITED STAT
onal Statistics Institu
me and the low
an net debt on
e: Bank of Italy (Sup
8% vs. 42%). ording to an Aned to 18% inpreference gre
ents and pensred to significage of administverage of otheards AuM.
ES, CANADA O
te, Central
west level of
n disposable inc
ppl. Bollettino Statist
This could Anima GfK
n May 2013 ew to 23%
sion funds) antly higher ered assets
er European
A1
OR JAPAN.
come (x)
tico Dec. 2013) on O
(i) high Italiawealth
(ii) low penemanagemen
Anima Holdin14 March 201
2
OECD data (2011)
an household
tration of asset products
ng 14
21
et
2
F
So
AIta7to
It
So
Prex
It
So
22
Financial wealt
ource: OECD, Natio
According to Aalian AuM (al.6% at end-20o positive inflow
talian Asset Ma
ource: Prometeia we
rometeia highxpense of bank
talian banks – T
ource: Bank of Italy
THIS DOC
h breakdown (
nal Statistics Institut
Assoreti data Aso including l
004. In 2013 Itws in mutual f
anagement Ind
ebsite
lights a scenak branches, wh
Trend in total
(“Bollettino Statistic
CUMENT MAY
(%)
te, Central Banks, FE
At the end of 2ife products) talian bank brafunds (approx.
dustry – Yearly
rio of FA netwhose total num
number of bra
co”)
NOT BE DISTR
EF, Assogestioni, Gf
2012, financiawas 16.7% c
anches, after seEUR +25Bn, a
mutual funds’
works further mber is also suf
nches 2008-13
RIBUTED IN TH
fK Eurisko (updated
l advisors’ (FAcompared to 1everal years of
according to Pr
’ net inflows (B
gaining markffering from a
Italiachan
Source
Int
E UNITED STAT
as of 1Q13)
) networks sha14.6% at endf net outflows,rometeia).
Banks vs. FAs)
ket share on Ageneral down
an asset managnnel (%)
e: Prometeia
tesa Sanpao
TES, CANADA
are of total d-2007 and were back
AuM at the sizing.
gement indust
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try – AuM trend
(iii) recovery branches’ ne
Distribution important drAuM growth
Anima Holdin14 March 201
Departmen
d in Italy by
in banking et inflows
Banking as anriver for Retailh
ng 14
nt
n l
Anima Holding 14 March 2014
Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department 23
THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN THE UNITED STATES, CANADA OR JAPAN.
However, we believe that there is still room for growth in the banking channel too. According to Prometeia projections, retail AuM distributed by banks should record a 2013-16 CAGR of +6.5%, with Italian banks remaining the dominant distribution channel in the retail segment. In addition, banks are also currently trying to push commission-based margins as their total revenue base is suffering from a decline in interest margin.
Italian banks – Main balance sheet indicators yoy % 2012 2013Assets & Liabilities Loans -1.2 1.3Deposits 3 2.4Profitability Revenues 3.3 -4.3of which interest margin -4.7 -1.9net commissions -1.3 7.3Costs -3.3 0.2
Source: Assogestioni on Bank of Italy (Results and forecasts for Italian listed banking groups)
2
S
Ao
Ind
W
Wagdethnan
In(scobethlede
It
N
24
Strategy
According to con the following
Consolidating
Further develo
Maintaining c
n addition to tisciplined appr
We would expe
A recovery inrecovery in th
The possibilitfinancial asset
The AuM welevels for othe
Banks, whichcommercial p
We consider Angreements witeveloping the he partnershipumber of premnd selected ma
n Italy, pensionsee source of ountries and coe an importanhe group has everage on thevelop new re
talian Asset Ma
ote: 1Q13 data; Sou
THIS DOC
ompany indicag three pillars:
g Anima’s role
oping institutio
cost efficiency.
the abovemenroach in active
ect the retail se
n the Italian ehe household s
ty that an incts, which now
eighting on toer main Europe
are the main policies, as they
nima to be in th strategic palternative ch
p with Russelmium partners)andates for pri
n funds and lifchart below). ould significan
nt growth drivematured a sige consolidatiolationships wit
anagement Ind
urce: Assogestioni,
CUMENT MAY
ations, the gro
in the retail se
onal clients’ ch
ntioned driversly pursuing M&
egment to grow
economy, boossavings rate;
reasing portio represent only
tal household ean countries;
distribution cy are implemen
a good positpartners (BMPShannels alreadyl Investments ), FAs and privivate clients).
fe products repThis level is d
ntly increase duer at a sector gnificant expeon of the relath other insura
dustry – Life an
Eurostat, OECD, BC
NOT BE DISTR
oup strategy fo
egment;
hannel with a s
s of organic g&A opportunit
w in the comin
sting growth
on of total hoy 42% of the t
financial asse
hannel for Annting strategies
ion to exploit S, BPM and Cy used, repres
on top-end ate banking (le
present only 1definitely belowue to the “penlevel, which, i
ertise in the inationship with nce groups.
nd pension fun
E, Deutsche Bundes
RIBUTED IN TH
or the next thr
strong focus o
rowth, the gries.
ng years, driven
in Italian hou
ousehold wealttotal;
ets is only 26%
nima, are curres aimed at inc
this potentialCreVal) and tented by otheclients and s
everaging on A
8% of total hw the ones sh
nsion gap” for in our opinionnstitutional seg AXA MPS a
ds on total fina
sbank
Int
E UNITED STAT
ree years is m
n insurance pla
roup will also
n by:
sehold wealth
th could be a
% vs. significa
ently adopting reasing comm
, thanks to itsthe possibility er retail banks selectively incrAnima’s brand
household finahown by otheyoung people
n, Anima couldgment. The gnd Covea/BPM
ancial assets (%
tesa Sanpao
TES, CANADA
ainly based
ayers;
maintain a
h, due to a
allocated to
ntly higher
favourable issions.
s long-term of further (exploiting
reasing the reputation
ncial assets r European . This could d exploit as roup could
M and also
%)
A1
olo Research
A OR JAPAN.
2014-16: focugrowth, withpotential M&opportunitie
Retail segmewith strategalso in altern
Institutional leveraging openetration and pension
Anima Holdin14 March 201
Departmen
us on organic hout ruling ou&A es
ent: growth ic partners, bu
native channel
segment: n under of life productfunds
ng 14
nt
ut
ut ls
ts
Anima Holding 14 March 2014
Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department 25
THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN THE UNITED STATES, CANADA OR JAPAN.
We expect the Anima group to keep costs under control and cost/income (calculated as recurrent staff and other administrative costs on total net revenues) below 30% thanks to the business operating leverage (in 2011-13, the group total revenues recorded a CAGR of +23% with costs at the same time decreasing at a -4% CAGR).
As previously discussed, the group offers a successful M&A story, which led to significant efficiencies, expressed by a reduction of FTEs from 294.5 at end-2011 to 218 at end-2013, with, at the same time, an increase in AuM/FTE from EUR 119M to EUR 214M. The group’s management is willing to actively pursue potential further M&A opportunities maintaining a disciplined approach, as shown by the deal signed with CreVal: EUR 33M paid for EUR 2.8Bn AuM. The Italian asset management industry is highly fragmented with a very large number of “sub-scale” players (43 groups hold less than EUR 10Bn AuM each). We would expect Anima to focus on opportunities arising with the target of enhancing its distribution capabilities (e.g. captive players with access to regional banking distribution networks).
Cost control
Disciplined approach in M&A
2
R
P
Ainmpe
InEB+toanthanBw
A
Noot
Th(inof(sode
A
So
26
Recent Fi
rofitability m
According to Anflows, gathermutual funds. ension fund fo
n the past twBITDA recordi62.8%. In 201o a price adjusnd BPM in 201he agreementsn indemnity sPM and BMPS
was pre-paid in
Anima Holding
otes: EBITDA calculaher income & costs
he growth rencluding net mf +8.8%, andstaff costs andperating costs eclined from 4
Anima Holding
ource: Company da
THIS DOC
nancial R
margins
Assogestioni moing a total amAnima recent
or EUR 70-80M
wo years, Animng a 2011-113 EBIT and sttment (exclude14. The paymes concerning thhould the cum
S on Anima pro2012 to partia
– Profitability
ated as total net reveand D&A. Source: C
ecorded in prmanagement f performance
d other admin (excl. non-rec
45.3% in 2011
– Key revenue
ta
CUMENT MAY
Results
onthly data, Amount of EURtly won two
M already reflec
ma recorded a3 CAGR of +tated net profied from the caent had been he integration mulative commoducts fall beloally finance the
trend indicato
enues deducted stafCompany data
ofitability indiees and other fees, and by
istrative expencurring costs, o to 36% in 20
e and cost indic
NOT BE DISTR
Anima had a veR 799M in Janinstitutional mcted in January
a significant g+41.2%, EBIT t were boostealculation of adnegotiated betof Anima and
missions (excluow a pre-define CreVal deal.
ors (2011-13) (E
ff and other adminis
icators was dnet commissioa compounde
nses) of 3.7%other income/
012 and 27.9%
cators (2011-13
RIBUTED IN TH
ery good startnuary, of whimandates, of y net inflow da
growth in proT +116.3% aned by an amoudjusted net prtween the sha
d Prima: Animauding performned threshold.
UR M)
strative costs; EBIT a
driven by incrons), which reed annual dec. The cost inc
/costs and D&A% in 2013.
3) (EUR M)
Int
E UNITED STAT
t to 2014 in tech almost EUwhich one re
ata.
ofitability indicnd adjusted nunt of EUR 55.ofit), to be pa
areholders in 2a had the righance fees) geAn amount o
also includes non-rec
reasing net coecorded a 2011crease in opercome ratio, caA) on total ne
tesa Sanpao
TES, CANADA
erms of net R 732M in elated to a
ators, with net income 5M related id by BMPS 010 within t to receive nerated by
of EUR 17M
curring costs,
ommissions 1-13 CAGR rating costs alculated as t revenues,
A1
olo Research
A OR JAPAN.
Net inflows: to 2014
Strong growprofitability
Profitability increasing mperformancecontrol
Anima Holdin14 March 201
Departmen
positive start
wth in margins
driven by management ane fees and cost
ng 14
nt
nd t
In
ThpoG(ean
A
So
A(
So
Fe
Th
Apshanp
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ntesa Sanpa
he growth in ositive market
Gestioni S.A. fespecially in mnd also helped
Anima Holding
ource: Company da
Anima Holding EUR Bn)
ource: Company da
ee structure
he Anima fee s
Entry fees (alm
Placement fedistributors);
Management
Performance
According to a lacement fee, hould be paid nd placement lacement fees
et commissiomanagement femanagement fe
aolo Researc
THIS DOCU
net fees was t performance from CreVal, utual funds an
d by a positive
– Total AuM (E
ta
– Growth driv
ta
e
structure inclu
most entirely re
ees (mainly r
t fees (rebated
fees (fully reta
new regulatiowhich replaceacross the life fees are recare deducted
ns are mostlyees net of reees and rebate
ch Departme
UMENT MAY N
driven by theeffect and frowhile in 2013nd institutionamarket perform
EUR Bn)
vers in Mutual F
des:
ebated to distr
regarding Tar
to distributors
ined by the as
on introduced es the subscripe of the produorded on topfrom managem
y representedbates (70% orates in 2013
ent NOT BE DISTRIB
e growth in Aom the acquis3 AuM growtl clients, whicmance.
Funds’ AuM
ributors);
get Date Fun
s according to
set manager).
by the Bank option fee and uct. From an ap of managemment fees acro
d by net manon average). Twas mainly re
BUTED IN THE
AuM, which insition of Apertth was mainlh recorded a
Anim
Source
Anim(EUR
Source
nds and alm
signed agreem
of Italy, a mutanticipates th
accounting stament fees whoss the lifetime
nagement feeThe significant
elated to placem
UNITED STAT
n 2012 benefitta SGR and Luy driven by nnet inflow of
ma Holding – G
e: Company data
ma Holding – GR Bn)
e: Company data
ost entirely r
ments);
tual fund coulhe managemeandpoint, bothen cashed in
e of the related
es, resulting ftly higher levement fees.
ES, CANADA O
ted from a ussemburgo net inflows EUR 2.5Bn)
Growth drivers
Growth drivers
rebated to
d charge a nt fee that
h entry fees . However,
d product.
from gross el of gross
A1
OR JAPAN.
of total AuM (
in Individual M
Growth in neby AuM grow
Analysis of nmanagemen
Anima Holdin14 March 201
2
(EUR Bn)
Mandates’ AuM
et fees driven wth
net t fees
ng 14
27
M
2
A
So
ThD20m10seu
A
So
Inachbeanancupe
28
Anima Holding
ource: Company da
he retail segmespite contribu013. The instit
mid-2016. Shou0.5M total neegment wouldp to 34bps in 2
Anima Holding
ource: Company da
n 2013 performccording to thigh watermarkenchmark metn annual basis nd flexible funumulatively reerformance fee
THIS DOC
– Trend in gro
ta
ent is more pruting approx. tutional segmeuld we excludeet revenues pe be lower. The2013 (34.2bps
– Retail and in
ta
mance fees wehe high watermk), and on 23thodology (boo and beats the
nds, whose assepresented aroes are gained o
CUMENT MAY
oss and net man
rofitable than 60% of total ent includes the the contributer year), the ne total averages in 2012).
nst. net mgmt f
ere calculated mark (booked funds, for a oked once a ye benchmark). sets significantound 75% oon Italian fund
NOT BE DISTR
nagement fees
the institutionAuM, it gave he mandate otion from the anet managemee net managem
fees trend (EUR
on 31 funds, fon a monthlytotal amount
year in 4Q, if t49% of 2013
tly increased inf total 2013
ds and therefor
RIBUTED IN TH
s
nal in both abs68% of total
on MPS proprieabovementioneent fees on A
ment fee on Au
R M) Anim
Source
for a total amoy basis if AuMof EUR 6.4Bn
he fund has aperformance
n the past twoperformance
re subject to th
Int
E UNITED STAT
solute and relanet managemetary finance, ed mandate (aAuM for the iuM was 33.5b
ma Holding – R
e: Company data
ount of EUR 4M level is highen AuM, accord
positive perfofees came from
o years. The tofees. Approx
he Italian taxat
tesa Sanpao
TES, CANADA
ative terms. ment fees in
expiring in pprox. EUR nstitutional ps in 2011,
Retail and inst.
4.3Bn AuM, er than the ding to the ormance on m balanced p 10 funds x. 80% of tion.
A1
olo Research
A OR JAPAN.
net mgmt fees
Net managemchannel
Performance
Anima Holdin14 March 201
Departmen
s trend (bps)
ment fees by
e fees
ng 14
nt
In
A
So A
So
Dfro(2
In-2nesh+en
AEUToCPePrTo
So
ThShad32
ntesa Sanpa
Anima Holding
ource: Company da
Anima Holding
ource: Company da
epreciation & rom 2011 andld acquisitions2010-11).
n 2013 the gro23.7M in 2012et debt signifhould take pla325bps and find-2013. Ther
Anima Holding UR M otal financial debash and securitieerformance fee rrice adjustment otal net financiaource: Company dat
he group’s taxhould both tdjustment of E2%.
aolo Researc
THIS DOCU
– Performance
ta
– High Waterm
ta
Amortisation (d 2012), are als (2006-07), C
oup recorded n2), mainly relatficantly down.ace in March 2ve-year matur
refore, net fina
– Net financia
bt and liabilities es receivables
l debt ta
x rate declinehe negative iEUR 55M (tax
ch Departme
UMENT MAY N
e fees by type (
mark by perfor
(D&A), equal tlmost entirely
CreVal deal (20
net financial exted to senior l. According to2014, for a serity) vs. an amoancial expenses
l debt trend
d to 27.5% iimpact from
x exempt) be e
ent NOT BE DISTRIB
(%)
rmance fees (%
to EUR 22.8M related to inta
012) and acqu
xpenses of EURloans. The stroo the companenior loan amoount of EUR 3s should signifi
2011A409.5
-140.7-0.9
-267.8
n 2013 from the 8.5% ad
excluded, the
BUTED IN THE
Anim
Source
%) Anim
Source
in 2013 (and angible assets uisitions of Prim
R 22.3M (EUR ong cash geneny presentatioount of EUR 1
345M of finanicantly reduce
20137
-13-2
21
51.9% in 20dditional IRES 2013 recurrin
UNITED STAT
ma Holding – P
e: Company data
ma Holding – B
e: Company data
not significantand PPA, resu
ma SGR and A
-22.6M in 201eration drove ton, a debt ren175M (six-moncial debt and in the future.
12A75.832.323.9
-9.7
11 and 30.9%taxation and
g tax rate wo
ES, CANADA O
Performance fee
Benchmark perf
tly different ulting from Anima SGR
11 and EUR the group’s negotiation nth Euribor liabilities at
2013A345.2
-209.2-36.2-55.544.3
% in 2012. the price
ould be 31-
A1
OR JAPAN.
es by asset clas
formance fees
Other P&L ite
Net financial
Tax rate
Anima Holdin14 March 201
2
ss (%)
(%)
ems: D&A,
l items
ng 14
29
3
E
A
OinstWdo
A
A
WreinPrre
A
E
AmA20resh
30
Earnings
AuM
Our 2014E-16E nflows, therefotrong start to 2
We factor in asown to 1.5%
Anima Holding
A: actual; E: estimate
We expect net etail and institunstitutional segroprietary Finaevenues until 1
Anima Holding
: estimates; Source:
As a result, andmutual funds, AuM: we estim016E from 74etail and instithould represen
THIS DOC
Outlook
estimates on ore continuing 2014, gatherinsumptions of in 2016E.
– AuM trend 2
es; Source: Company
inflows to be utional clients gments should ance (one singH16).
– Estimates on
Intesa Sanpaolo Re
d also taking inwe estimate a
mate mutual fu% at end-201utional weight
nt almost 61%
CUMENT MAY
k
AuM factor ina trend alread
ng EUR 799M a positive mar
2013A-16E (EUR
y data and Intesa Sa
driven by mutin 2014E and be negativelygle mandate w
n net inflows b
search
nto account a pa significant gunds and pens3A. On the coting over the of total AuM
NOT BE DISTR
a 2013A-16Edy started in 20
in January, acrket performan
R Bn)
anpaolo Research
tual funds and2015E, while i affected by thwith EUR 1.5
by product (EUR
progressive cogrowth for colsion funds to ontrary, we donext three yeaat end-2016E
RIBUTED IN TH
E CAGR of +6.4013. We highliccording to Asnce around 2.5
Anim
E: esti
d to be substain 2016E bothhe terminationBn AuM and
R Bn) Anim
E: esti
nversion of Crllective producrepresent 79%
o not expect a ars: according vs. 60% at en
Int
E UNITED STAT
4%, mainly dright that the gssogestioni mo5% in 2014E a
ma Holding – T
mates; Source: Intes
ntially balance individual ma
n of the mandEUR 10.5M
ma Holding – E
mates; Source: Intes
reVal retail macts’ contributio% of total Ausignificant chato our projec
nd-2013A.
tesa Sanpao
TES, CANADA
riven by net roup had a
onthly data. and 2015E,
Total AuM grow
sa Sanpaolo Researc
ed between ndates and ate of MPS annual net
stimates on ne
sa Sanpaolo Researc
ndates into on to total uM at end-ange in the tions, retail
A1
olo Research
A OR JAPAN.
wth drivers (EU
ch
et inflows by ch
ch
AuM: assumpinflows and performance
Mutual Fundto 79% at en
Anima Holdin14 March 201
Departmen
UR Bn)
hannel (EUR Bn
ptions on net market
e
ds’ weighting und-2016E
ng 14
nt
n)
up
In
A
A
Waneq
A
A
Are
P
O
To
ntesa Sanpa
Anima Holding
A: actual. Source: Co
We do not expn increase in bquity and mon
Anima Holding
A: actual; Source: Co
At the same timemain basically
&L estimate
Our 2014E-16E
1.7% in total
2.3% in EBITD
6.1% in adjuexpenses.
otal net revenu
A 6.5% estimforecast for e
A lower expancillary fees,
aolo Researc
THIS DOCU
– AuM by prod
ompany data
ect significant balanced and ney market pro
– Mutual Fund
ompany data
me, we expect y unchanged (i
es
P&L estimates
net revenues;
DA;
sted net incom
ues’ estimates
mated 2013A-nd-of-period A
pected level o like order rou
ch Departme
UMENT MAY N
duct type 2013
changes to mflexible funds’
oducts.
ds by asset clas
the weightingt was 46% at
s factor in a 20
me, which ben
result from:
-16E CAGR inAuM (we expe
f performanceuting and secur
ent NOT BE DISTRIB
3A (%)
mutual funds’ a contribution
ss 2013A (%)
g of innovativeend-2013).
013A-16E CAG
efits from an
net managemct +8.1% 3-ye
e fees and orities services) c
BUTED IN THE
Anim
E: esti
asset allocatio(up to almost
Anim
E: esti
e products (Str
GR of:
estimated dec
ment fees, whear CAGR in av
other net comcompared to 2
UNITED STAT
ma Holding – A
mate. Source: Intesa
n. However, w33%) at the
ma Holding – M
mate; Source: Intesa
rategies and So
cline in D&A an
hich basically verage AuM);
mmissions (wh2013A.
ES, CANADA O
AuM by produc
a Sanpaolo Research
we estimate expense of
Mutual Funds b
a Sanpaolo Research
olutions) to
nd financial
reflects the
ich include
A1
OR JAPAN.
ct type 2016E (%
h
by asset class 20
h
No significanasset allocat
Net revenues
Anima Holdin14 March 201
3
%)
016E (%)
nt changes in ion
s
ng 14
31
3
A
A
Ogthdenesh
A
A
Wex26exEUla20ex
32
Anima Holding
A: actual; E: estimate
Our 2014E-16Eroup. As previhe high level oecline in the net fee/AuM. Whows an avera
Anima Holding
A: actual; E: estimate
We expect the xpenses) to re6.7% in 2016xcluding thoseUR 14.6M in 2
ay-off incentive013); and (ii) Mxpenses (EUR 7
THIS DOC
– Net revenue
es; Source: Company
E net managemously mentionof placement ext three years
We assume a ge net fee on
– Net manage
es; Source: Company
total amount emain basicall6E from 27.9%e related to th2011, EUR 7.3Mes, as regards sM&A transactio7.8M in 2011,
CUMENT MAY
es’ trend 2013A
y data and Intesa Sa
ment fees’ ested, the high 6fees (almost es. The table bedecline in instaverage AuM
ement fees by c
y data and Intesa Sa
of recurring oy stable in 2
% in 2013. Whe IPO. We hiM in 2012 andstaff costs (EUons, asset dispEUR 5.4M in 2
NOT BE DISTR
A-16E (EUR M)
anpaolo Research
imates factor 69% rebate leventirely rebateelow summaristitutional profiof approx. 20b
channel (EUR M
anpaolo Research
operating cost014E-16E, wit
We would not ghlight that A
d EUR 5.8M in R 6.8M in 201
posals and IPO,2012 and EUR
RIBUTED IN TH
in a 65% avevel recorded ind to distributo
ses our assumpitability, as thebps.
M) Anim bps
RetailInstituTotal
A: actu
ts (staff costs th a cost/incoexpect additio
Anima recorde2013, which w1, EUR 1.9M i, with referenc 4.7M in 2013
Int
E UNITED STAT
erage rebate len 2013 was infors), which weptions in termse new busines
ma Holding – A
l utional
ual; E: estimates; So
and other admome slightly donal non-recued non-recurrinwere mainly rein 2012 and Ece to other adm3).
tesa Sanpao
TES, CANADA
evel for the fluenced by e expect to of average
ss currently
Average Net Fe2013A 2
38.027.834.0
urce: Company data
ministrative eclining to rring costs, ng costs of elated to: (i) UR 1.1M in ministrative
A1
olo Research
A OR JAPAN.
ee on AuM 2014E 20
38.3 325.1 232.9 3
a and Intesa Sanpao
Net managem
Operating co
Anima Holdin14 March 201
Departmen
015E 20139.0 3824.6 2233.1 32
olo Research
ment fees
osts
ng 14
nt
6E8.92.82.5
In
A
N
A20
A29
Win
Thelinabec
Fotobaco
Atrfico
ntesa Sanpa
Anima Holding
ote: recurring opera
As a result, we016E.
As regards staf94.5 at end-20
We highlight thncludes:
A base salary
A benefit plan
he variable colements (Anim
nvestment teambsolute return conomic and f
or 2014-16 tho 16 senior maased on a thronditions have
Adj. cumulate
Cumulated 20
Total return comparables
According to orend in D&A nancial chargeost to be recor
aolo Researc
THIS DOCU
– Operating co
ating costs; A: actua
e estimate an
ff costs, at the011.
hat personnel
reviewed on a
n for all emplo
ompensation ima group’s perm’s variable co funds. The bo
financial perfor
e group will imanagers (for aree-year perfoe been achieved
ed EPS in 2014
014-16 net inf
to shareholde(25%).
ur forecasts, Erelated to the
es due to the rded in 2014).
ch Departme
UMENT MAY N
osts
al; E: estimates; Sou
increase in EB
e end of 2013
costs have a f
an annual basis
oyees including
s represented rformance, buompensation ionus scheme frmance.
mplement a st maximum amrmance periodd:
4-16 vs. indust
flows vs. peers
ers on the 3
EBIT and net pe PPA amortisrefinancing to
ent NOT BE DISTRIB
rce: Company data
BITDA from E
3 the group h
fixed and varia
s;
g health insuran
by a discretiusiness area, tencludes a percfor senior man
ock-granting lmount equal tod and will be
rial plan (50%
within the Ita
years vs. a
profit should bsation schedulo be completed
BUTED IN THE
and Intesa Sanpaolo
UR 158.8M in
had 218 emplo
able compone
nce and pensio
onary cash boeam and indivcentage of yeanagement is a
ong-term inceo 3% of the sapplied if the
);
lian asset man
group of liste
benefit from tle (in 15 yeard in March 20
UNITED STAT
o Research
n 2013 to EU
oyees (FTEs), d
nt. The fixed c
on fund contri
onus based ovidual performarly performan
also linked to t
entive plan (LTshare capital). e following pe
nagement indu
ed Italian and
the estimated rs) and the re014 (EUR 5M
ES, CANADA O
R 170M in
down from
component
bution.
n different mance). The nce fees on the group’s
IP) reserved The LTIP is
erformance
stry (25%);
d European
decreasing educed net refinancing
A1
OR JAPAN.
Details on st
LTIP 2014-16
Operating prbottom line
Anima Holdin14 March 201
3
aff costs
rofit and
ng 14
33
3
A
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Anima Holding 14 March 2014
Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department 35
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Financials Anima Holding – Income statement
EUR M 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2013A-16E CAGR (%)Gross management fees 356.0 342.0 485.0 463.6 500.3 506.5 1.5Rebates -227.0 -217.0 -336.0 -304.1 -327.2 -327.4 -0.9Net management fees 129.0 125.0 148.0 159.4 173.2 179.1 6.5Other net commissions 9.0 11.0 15.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 -2.3Performance fees 7.9 29.2 57.0 34.1 36.8 38.9 -12.0Total gross revenues 373.0 382.0 556.6 511.7 551.1 559.3 0.2Total net revenues 145.7 165.1 220.2 207.6 224.0 232.0 1.7Recurring personnel cost -36.6 -33.6 -35.5 -33.5 -33.4 -34.2 -1.2Recurring other administrative costs -29.6 -25.7 -25.9 -26.4 -27.0 -27.7 2.3Total recurring costs -66.2 -59.3 -61.4 -59.9 -60.5 -62.0 0.3EBITDA 79.6 105.8 158.8 147.7 163.5 170.0 2.3Non-recurring costs -14.6 -7.3 -5.8 -3.0 0.0 0.0 -100.0Other income/cost -4.4 7.0 57.1 0.5 1.3 1.5 -70.3D&A -20.6 -20.0 -22.8 -21.1 -19.7 -18.0 -7.6EBIT 40.0 85.4 187.3 124.1 145.1 153.5 -6.4Net financial charges -22.6 -23.7 -22.3 -15.2 -6.9 -5.9 -35.7EBT 17.4 61.7 165.0 108.9 138.2 147.6 -3.6Taxes -9.0 -19.1 -45.3 -33.7 -43.6 -47.2 1.3Net income 8.4 42.6 119.7 75.2 94.6 100.4 -5.7Net income adjusted 35.6 56.9 94.4 91.8 107.9 112.7 6.1Rebate rate (%) 63.8 63.5 69.4 65.6 65.4 64.6 Cost/income* (%) 45.3 36.0 27.9 28.8 27.0 26.7 EBITDA margin** (%) 21.4 27.6 28.5 28.9 29.7 30.4 Tax rate (%) 51.9 30.9 27.5 30.9 31.6 31.9
* Cost/income calculated as Total Recurring Costs on Total Net Revenues; ** calculated on total gross revenues. A: actual; E: estimates; Source: Company data and Intesa Sanpaolo Research
Anima Holding – Assets under management
EUR Bn 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2013A-16E CAGR (%)Total AuM 35.0 40.7 46.6 50.3 54.2 56.1 6.4Mutual funds 25.0 27.9 33.9 37.5 41.2 44.0 9.1Pension Funds 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 5.9Individual accounts 9.6 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.6 11.7 -1.7Retail 22.9 25.5 27.7 29.8 32.1 34.1 7.2of which strategic partners 17.6 20.4 22.5 24.3 26.3 28.1 7.7Institutional 12.1 15.2 18.8 20.5 22.1 22.0 5.4
A: actual; E: estimates; Source: Company data and Intesa Sanpaolo Research
Anima Holding – Balance sheet
EUR M 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016ECash & cash equivalents 140.7 132.2 209.2 167.2 231.9 293.3Receivables related to products 30.4 65.5 76.7 62.2 63.9 65.3o/w related to performance fees 0.9 23.9 36.2 22.2 23.9 25.3Tangible fixed assets 3.8 3.8 3.1 2.5 2.3 2.3Intangible fixed assets 772.1 784.6 763.8 746.6 730.1 714.7Other assets 46.2 53.4 160.5 55.6 52.5 50.0Total assets 993.3 1,039.5 1,213.4 1,034.1 1,080.7 1,125.6Non-financial liabilities 57.8 68.9 91.6 67.6 69.3 74.7Financial debt 397.4 365.1 337.9 175.0 160.7 143.1Other liabilities 99.2 110.5 162.3 96.4 91.1 86.7Funds & provisions 7.3 2.9 4.7 3.0 3.0 3.0Share capital 5.6 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8Reserves 417.7 443.7 491.4 611.1 656.3 712.0Consolidated net income 8.4 42.6 119.7 75.2 94.6 100.4Total net equity 431.7 492.1 616.9 692.1 756.7 818.2Total liabilities & equity 993.3 1,039.5 1,213.4 1,034.1 1,080.7 1,125.6Total net financial debt (debt+/-cash) 267.8 219.7 44.3 -9.4 -92.6 -174.5Operating cash flow 30.9 31.4 113.7 110.8 113.2 120.9Change in cash and cash equivalents* -16.5 14.4 89.4 -56.0 66.4 62.8
* Including Receivables related to performance fees. A: actual; E: estimates; Source: Company data and Intesa Sanpaolo Research
Anima Holding 14 March 2014
36 Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department
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Notes
Anima Holding 14 March 2014
Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department 37
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Notes
Anima Holding 14 March 2014
38 Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department
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Disclaimer Analyst certification
The financial analyst who prepared this report, and whose name and role appear on the first page, certifies that:
(1) The views expressed on companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been or will be received in exchange for any views expressed.
Specific disclosures
1. Neither the analyst nor any member of the analyst’s household has a financial interest in the securities of the Company.
2. Neither the analyst nor any member of the analyst’s household serves as an officer, director or advisory board member of the Company.
3. The analyst named in the document is a member of AIAF.
4. The analyst named in this document is not registered with or qualified by FINRA, the U.S. regulatory body with oversight over Banca IMI Securities Corp. Accordingly, the analyst may not be subject to NASD Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 with respect to communicates with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities in a personal account. For additional information, please contact the Compliance Department of Banca IMI Securities Corp at 212-326-1133.
5. The analyst of this report does not receive bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon specific investment banking transactions.
6. The research department supervisors do not have a financial interest in the securities of the Company.
7. A redacted version of this document has been disclosed to the issuer to permit it to review and comment on factual information relating to the issuer and this document has been amended following this disclosure prior to its dissemination.
This research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo SpA and distributed by Banca IMI SpA Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo SpA accepts full responsibility for the contents of this report and also reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients. Banca IMI SpA and Intesa Sanpaolo SpA, which are both part of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, are both authorised by the Banca d'Italia and are both regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.
Opinions and estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment advisor.
This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient’s own judgment. No Intesa Sanpaolo SpA or Banca IMI SpA entities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report. This document may only be reproduced or published together with the name of Intesa Sanpaolo SpA and Banca IMI SpA.
Intesa Sanpaolo SpA and Banca IMI SpA have in place a Joint Conflicts Management Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter. A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo SpA, 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA. Intesa Sanpaolo SpA has formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with conflicts of interest (“Research Policy”). The Research Policy is clearly explained in the relevant section of Intesa Sanpaolo’s web site (www.intesasanpaolo.com).
Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or their directors and/or representatives and/or employees and/or members of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and/or sale, or offer to make a purchase and/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise.
Residents in Italy: This document is intended for distribution only to professional clients and qualified counterparties as defined in Consob Regulation no. 16190 of 29.10.2007 as subsequently amended and supplemented either as a printed document and/or in electronic form.
Person and residents in the UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the FSA.
Coverage policy and frequency of research reports
The list of companies covered by the Research Department is available upon request. Intesa Sanpaolo SpA aims to provide continuous coverage of the companies on the list in conjunction with the timing of periodical accounting reports and any exceptional event that affects the issuer’s operations. The companies for which Banca IMI acts as sponsor or specialist or other regulated roles are covered in compliance with regulations issued by regulatory bodies with jurisdiction. In the case of a short note, we advise investors to refer to the most recent company report published by Intesa Sanpaolo SpA’s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation methodology, earnings assumptions, risks and the historical of recommendation and target price. Research is available on Banca IMI’s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales representative.
Valuation methodology (long-term horizon: 12M)
The Intesa Sanpaolo SpA Equity Research Department values the companies for which it assigns recommendations as follows:
We obtain a fair value using a number of valuation methodologies including: discounted cash flow method (DCF), dividend discount model (DDM), embedded value methodology, return on allocated capital, break-up value, asset-based valuation method, sum-of-the-parts, and multiples-based models (for example PE, P/BV, PCF, EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, etc.). The financial analysts use the above valuation methods alternatively and/or jointly at their discretion. The assigned target price may differ from the fair value, as it also takes into account overall market/sector conditions, corporate/market events, and corporate specifics (ie, holding discounts) reasonably considered to be possible drivers of the company’s share price performance. These factors may also be assessed using the methodologies indicated above.
Anima Holding 14 March 2014
Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department 39
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Equity rating key: (long-term horizon: 12M)
In its recommendations, Intesa Sanpaolo SpA uses an “absolute” rating system, which is not related to market performance and whose key is reported below:
Equity rating key (long-term horizon: 12M) Long-term rating Definition BUY If the target price is 20% higher than the market price ADD If the target price is 10%-20% higher than the market price HOLD If the target price is 10% below or 10% above the market price REDUCE If the target price is 10%-20% lower than the market price SELL If the target price is 20% lower than the market price RATING SUSPENDED The investment rating and target price for this stock have been suspended as there is not a sufficient
fundamental basis for determining an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and target price, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock.
NO RATING The company is or may be covered by the Research Department but no rating or target price is assigned either voluntarily or to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies in certain circumstances, including when Intesa Sanpaolo is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the company.
TARGET PRICE The market price that the analyst believes the share may reach within a one-year time horizon MARKET PRICE Closing price on the day before the issue date of the report, as indicated on the first page, except
where otherwise indicated
Equity rating allocations (long-term horizon: 12M)
Intesa Sanpaolo Research Rating Distribution (at February 2014) Number of companies considered: 83 BUY ADD HOLD REDUCE SELL Total Equity Research Coverage % 29 35 31 2 2 of which Intesa Sanpaolo’s Clients % (*) 54 52 42 50 50
(*) Companies on behalf of whom Intesa Sanpaolo and the other companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group have provided corporate and Investment banking services in the last 12 months; percentage of clients in each rating category
Valuation methodology (short-term horizon: 3M)
Our short-term investment ideas are based on ongoing special market situations, including among others: spreads between share categories; holding companies vs. subsidiaries; stub; control chain reshuffling; stressed capital situations; potential extraordinary deals (including capital increase/delisting/extraordinary dividends); and preys and predators. Investment ideas are presented either in relative terms (e.g. spread ordinary vs. savings; holding vs. subsidiaries) or in absolute terms (e.g. preys).
The companies to which we assign short-term ratings are under regular coverage by our research analysts and, as such, are subject to fundamental analysis and long-term recommendations. The main differences attain to the time horizon considered (monthly vs. yearly) and definitions (short-term ‘long/short’ vs. long-term ‘buy/sell’). Note that the short-term relative recommendations of these investment ideas may differ from our long-term recommendations. We monitor the monthly performance of our short-term investment ideas and follow them until their closure.
Equity rating key (short-term horizon: 3M)
Equity rating key (short-term horizon: 3M) Short-term rating Definition LONG Stock price expected to rise or outperform within three months from the time the rating
was assigned due to a specific catalyst or event SHORT Stock price expected to fall or underperform within three months from the time the rating
was assigned due to a specific catalyst or event
Company specific disclosures
Banca IMI discloses interests and conflicts of interest, as defined by: Articles 69-quater and 69-quinquies, of Consob Resolution No.11971 of 14.05.1999, as subsequently amended and supplemented; the NYSE’s Rule 472 and the NASD’s Rule 2711; the FSA Policy Statement 04/06 “Conflicts of Interest in Investment Research – March 2004 and the Policy Statement 05/03 “Implementation of Market Abuse Directive”, March 2005. The Intesa Sanpaolo Group maintains procedures and organisational mechanisms (Information barriers) to professionally manage conflicts of interest in relation to investment research. We provide the following information on Intesa Sanpaolo Group’s conflicts of interest:
1 The Intesa Sanpaolo Group has a conflict of interest inasmuch as it plans to solicit investment banking business or intends to seek compensation from the Company in the next three months.
2 Banca IMI, belonging to the Intesa Sanpaolo banking group, acting as one of the Joint Global Coordinators in the Global Offering, Joint Bookrunner in the Institutional Offering and Lead Underwriter in the Italian Public Offering, is in a situation of conflict of interest as:
- It has provided corporate finance services to some of the Selling Shareholders in the last twelve months;
- It has issued financial instruments linked to the financial instruments issued by some of the Selling Shareholders;
- It will receive commissions for the services rendered in the context of the Global Offering;
3 The Intesa Sanpaolo Group has engaged in or may in the future engage in lending, advisory and/or investment banking services to Anima Group and/or to the Selling Shareholders, in the ordinary course of business.
Anima Holding 14 March 2014
40 Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department
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Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department – Head of Research: Gregorio De Felice Head of Equity & Credit Research Giampaolo Trasi +39 02 8794 9803 [email protected] Equity Research Monica Bosio +39 02 8794 9809 [email protected] Bacoccoli +39 02 8794 9810 [email protected] Meroni +39 02 8794 9817 [email protected] Luca Pacini +39 02 8794 9818 [email protected] Perini +39 02 8794 9814 [email protected] Permutti +39 02 8794 9819 [email protected] Ranieri +39 02 8794 9822 [email protected] Tonin +39 02 8794 1119 [email protected] Corporate Broking Research Alberto Francese +39 02 8794 9815 [email protected] Berti +39 02 8794 9821 [email protected] Caprini +39 02 8794 9812 [email protected] Research Production Anna Whatley +39 02 8794 9824 [email protected] Marshall +39 02 8794 9816 [email protected] Ricci +39 02 8794 9823 [email protected] Ruggeri +39 02 8794 9811 [email protected]
Banca IMI SpA - Head of Equity Derivative Sales, Trading, Cash Sales: Andrea Sozzi Sabatini
Institutional Sales Catherine d'Aragon +39 02 7261 5929 [email protected] Cavalieri +39 02 7261 2722 [email protected] Guadagni +39 02 7261 5817 [email protected] Gess +39 02 7261 5927 [email protected] Repetto +39 02 7261 5517 [email protected] Stucchi +39 02 7261 5708 [email protected] Tinessa + 39 02 7261 2158 [email protected] Wilson +39 02 7261 2758 [email protected] Corporate Broking Carlo Castellari +39 02 7261 2122 [email protected] Spinella +39 02 7261 5782 [email protected] Sales Trading Emanuele Mastroddi +39 02 7261 5880 [email protected]
Lorenzo Pennati +39 02 7261 5647 [email protected] Equity Derivatives Institutional Sales Andrea Martini +39 02 7261 5977 [email protected] De Paoli +39 02 7261 5821 [email protected] Ferrari +39 02 7261 2806 [email protected] Manini +39 02 7261 5936 [email protected] Murgino +39 02 7261 2247 [email protected]
Banca IMI SpA – Head of Market Hub: Gherardo Lenti Capoduri
E-commerce Distribution Alessandra Minghetti +39 02 7261 2973 [email protected] Riccardi (Retail e-commerce) +39 02 7261 2089 [email protected] Menconi (Institutional e-commerce) +39 02 7261 5492 [email protected] Giovanni Spotti (E-sales) +39 02 7261 2339 [email protected] Brokerage & Execution Sergio Francolini +39 02 7261 5859 [email protected]
Banca IMI SpA
Largo Mattioli, 3 20121 Milan, Italy Tel: +39 02 7261 1
Banca IMI London Branch
90 Queen Street London EC4N 1SA, UK Tel +44 207 894 2600