angles & perspectives

ANGLES & PERSPECTIVESFIRST QUARTER 2018

Contents

Personal perceptions are powerful. When investing, they serve as a double-edged sword: acting on perception can be a costly mistake, but acting on the back of others’ misperceptions can get the odds in your favour. Focusing on the facts helps you maintain the right perspective.

1. Introduction – Anet Ahern 1

2. The value investor's perspective: value is abundant in expensive markets – Shaun le Roux 2

3. ‘Perils of perception’ – and keeping a clear line of sight – Paul Bosman 5

4. ‘An overvalued rand’ – a closer look at the common perception – Lyle Sankar 6

5. The PSG Money Market Fund: preserving capital and providing a steady income – Lyle Sankar 8

6. Portfolio holdings as at 31 March 2018 10

7. Percentage annualised performance to 31 March 2018 (net of fees) 13

8. Risk/return profile 14

9. Unit trust summary 15

10. Contact information 16

11. Digital subscriptions 17

FIRST QUARTER 2018 | 1

Anet Ahern

Sometimes it takes a fresh perspective to see opportunity amid concern and noiseA new political landscape is unfolding in South Africa and the year is progressing with the underpin of improved confidence and a better outlook. This gives us room to reflect on the influence that perspectives and perceptions can have on our decisions.

Finding value in expensive marketsShaun le Roux, Manager of the PSG Equity and PSG Flexible funds, opens this edition with a discussion on perspective. He distinguishes between a market that is generally overvalued and the availability of investment opportunities. He also discusses the impact of passive investing on overall valuations and includes a sobering note on expectations for future returns.

The perils of perceptionPaul Bosman, Manager of the PSG Balanced and PSG Stable funds, focuses on perceptions, and examines the habit of South Africans to expect the worst. He explains that the key is not to base investment decisions on predictions, but to have a handle on the extent to which prices have responded to the possible scenarios.

Perspectives on the randLyle Sankar, Manager of the PSG Money Market Fund, expands on the risks attached to holding a one-way view on the rand, and explores a different perspective.

The PSG Money Market Fund: preserving capital and providing a steady incomeThis quarter we feature the PSG Money Market Fund and its low-risk contribution to the portion of a portfolio that requires capital preservation, easy access to savings and a steady income. At certain points in the interest rate cycle, there are also opportunities to attain inflation-beating yields while preserving capital – opportunities we have recently taken advantage of.

We calmly continue to apply our process, consistently and patientlyWe make sure we do not get caught up in popular perceptions, but rather maintain the right perspective. Thank you for your interest and support, and we trust that you will find this edition valuable. Your feedback, as always, is welcome.

Introduction

Anet has 30 years’ experience in investment and business management. After starting her career at Allan Gray in 1986, where she fulfilled various roles in trading and investment management, she worked as a portfolio manager at Syfrets, and later BoE Asset Management, where she was CIO and CEO. She also spent six years at Sanlam, where she was the CEO of Sanlam Multi Manager International. Anet joined PSG Asset Management as CEO in 2013.

"The fact that we live at the bottom of a deep gravity well, on the surface of a gas covered planet going around a nuclear fireball 90 million miles away and think this to be normal is obviously some indication of how skewed our perspective tends to be."

Douglas Adams, The Salmon of Doubt: Hitchhiking the Galaxy One Last Time

2 |

Shaun le RouxThe value investor's perspective: value is abundant in expensive markets

Shaun has managed the PSG Equity Fund since 2002 and the PSG Flexible Fund since 2016. He is a CA(SA) and a CFA charterholder.

What you see depends on your perspective

Above is an image widely used to demonstrate an ambiguous optical illusion. In it, we see either a glamorous young lady or an old woman, but if we change our frame of reference, we can see the reverse – the image we initially missed. This shows the power of perspective; how it is personal and can change.

Currently, views around equity valuations are highly variedMany argue that global equity markets are currently expensive, trading at levels only reached in times of irrational exuberance, like 1929 or 1999. They are of the view that a material market correction is overdue. Others reference strong economic conditions, fast growth in corporate profits, and low interest rates as evidence that the bull market is sustainable. Who is right? Well, it depends on your perspective.

Our perspective is that global assets are generally trading at elevated valuation levels We expect low long-term returns from many asset classes given these levels, especially developed market bonds and the well-owned equities with which they have been competing for capital. Indeed, long-term asset class performance needs to be seen in the context of the 30-year bond bull market that is likely

approaching its end. This follows recent bouts of extraordinary and unconventional monetary stimulus, including zero interest rate policies, negative real yields and quantitative easing (bond buying by central banks). This environment has been very favourable for the prices of long-duration assets, including equities – especially equities perceived to yield more sustainable or faster-growing cash profits.

We believe that portfolio returns (on a broad basis) from these levels will be disappointing compared to the returns South African (and other) investors have become accustomed to over the past 15 years – especially after the surge in equities in 2017. Due to much higher stock prices, we have been finding fewer opportunities to buy high-quality businesses at wide margins of safety over the past year and a half. This is reflected in the relatively high cash levels in our funds, especially offshore. We consider cash one of the most uncrowded and under-appreciated global asset classes, especially when yields are low and appetite for risk is high. The inherent value of cash is never evident in times of exuberance. Its true value shows itself when volatility rises, prices fall and liquidity is in short supply.

Despite high overall valuations, there are still pockets of opportunity It is dangerous to express a view on the market as a whole, when ‘the market’ comprises thousands of different securities. The dynamics within markets tell an altogether different story, and certainly add another perspective. It is true that markets are broadly expensive. However, if you are prepared to look beyond the crowded stocks and sectors, the opportunity for good long-term returns is quite promising.

Indeed, we continue to highlight the dispersion in valuations within equity markets – the anomaly of current market conditions. The difference between prices paid for expensive stocks that dominate indices versus cheap, out-of-favour stocks remains at levels we last saw in the dotcom bubble.

We have recently been identifying attractive long-term investment opportunitiesMost of the globally superior companies we would love to own are currently very expensive. Hence, they do not appear in our clients' portfolios. However, we believe that if you look a bit deeper into equity markets and are prepared to invest in uncrowded areas, good prospects abound. In fact, the strength of our current pipeline has seen us starting to spend some of the cash that’s been building up in our funds. We would argue that contrasting valuations within markets present fertile ground for stock pickers to generate alpha and deliver on clients’ long-term return objectives. We would further argue that investing in cheap stocks on suppressed levels of earnings is a lower-risk way of helping clients achieve these objectives.


The increasing dominance of passive and growth strategies is contributing to current market pricing We can hazard a few calculated guesses about the factors contributing to the divergence in equity valuations. In a low-yield and high-asset-price world, investment flows that are not price sensitive can drive prices to extreme levels. It is clear to us that the ever-increasing switch from active to passive investment strategies is having a profound impact on market pricing. This has resulted in the allocation of capital to assets that have recently enjoyed strong price performance, and away from underperforming assets. We also see clear evidence of multi-year style drift by global active managers, away from value to growth (and from high to low active share) – a consequence of the decade-long consistent outperformance of growth over value (as shown in Graph 1) and passive over active. A simple review of global mutual funds indicates the low and ever-shrinking market share of traditional value managers relative to passive and growth strategies.

Strong evidence of the impact of these factors on global equity markets can be seen in Table 1. It shows the staggering outperformance by mega caps across global equity markets in 2017, to the extent that the largest handful of shares dominated last year's returns in just about every market. A cursory glance at the constituents of these global stock indices indicates the dominance of mega-cap growth and tech stocks in particular. In sharp contrast, the least liquid stocks (the far-right column) have underperformed materially (most are negative) in all the indices. This is indicative of a rising liquidity risk premium, and clearly demonstrates that the breadth of the bull market has not been as widespread as is commonly perceived.

A market dominated by price-insensitive flows that result in wide divergences in performance and neglect for smaller-cap stocks is fertile ground for contrarian stock pickers.

Uncrowded areas of the market present the most attractive opportunities To invest in securities of sufficient quality at wide margins of safety in an expensive market, we need to buy businesses: • that are out of favour for reasons we consider to be

temporary, or• for which we consider the likely outlook to be better than

what the market is pricing in.

So where can we currently find such opportunities? Firstly, we think there are very attractive opportunities in our own backyard. Liquid stocks that are exposed to the South African economy, the ‘SA Inc stocks’, have re-priced dramatically following the improved outlook for the political governance of the country since December. Notably, less liquid stocks that fall outside the reach of global investors, big domestic managers and index-tracking strategies have been left behind. It is our view that many higher-quality SA Inc mid and small caps can be acquired at attractive valuations on low levels of earnings. This bodes well for long-term returns from this opportunity set.

Similarly, there are several countries in which negative narratives have adversely affected stock prices. For example, the Japanese authorities' unconventional zero interest rate policy has dramatically weighed on margins for many financial businesses. As a result, we think we can acquire such businesses on unsustainably low levels of earnings at very cheap prices. We also acknowledge structural (and long overdue) improvements in Japanese corporate governance, with increasing focus on shareholder returns. In combination, these factors create the potential for asymmetrical investment outcomes.

We have also actively been mining the opportunity set that has arisen from the fallout in the US retail property sector. Not only have bond yields been rising (which is negative for capitalisation rates), but brick-and-mortar sales have been declining due to growing online market share in an overbuilt mall environment. Department stores in particular have been haemorrhaging. US retail real estate investment trusts (REITs) have been heavily hit, and we have used the opportunity to acquire excellent assets at very attractive prices and yields.

We have an unwavering focus on buying with a sufficient margin of safetyWe avoid stocks that don't provide adequate returns to compensate for the risk of investing in them. It is our view that very few of the popular mega-cap global equities are currently attractively priced. Not only will future returns likely disappoint most investors, but prices certainly do not compensate for unpredictable future macro developments or unforeseen geopolitical events. On the other hand, many stocks around the world are out of favour and being neglected. If our analysis is correct, these should provide good long-term returns for our clients.

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Index Index total return

Largest 5 Largest 10 Largest 25 Largest quintile

2nd

quintileMiddle quintile

4th

quintileSmallest quintile

MSCI Emerging Market

37.3 68.0 62.5 55.9 45.0 39.1 25.1 25.0 2.5

Russell 1000 Growth

30.2 45.2 44.5 38.9 38.5 25.6 23.8 12.9 -2.0

MSCI EAFE 25.0 20.2 22.3 21.7 22.5 20.6 23.6 20.6 6.7

MSCI ACWI 24.0 49.2 46.7 34.5 26.9 25.2 22.7 21.0 10.5

Russell 2000 Growth

22.2 93.3 85.1 55.4 32.6 14.4 9.2 -7.2 -23.2

S&P 500 21.8 45.3 34.3 29.9 24.5 22.0 17.0 14.2 -1.1

Russell 1000 21.7 45.3 34.3 29.9 32.3 20.2 25.6 12.9 -18.1

Russell Midcap 18.5 42.0 35.3 29.9 24.0 20.4 14.8 8.6 -11.3

Russell 2000 14.7 76.3 73.0 54.5 36.2 19.3 4.4 -3.1 -18.6

Russell 1000 Value

13.7 26.5 19.2 14.4 16.4 14.5 19.2 7.6 -10.9

Russell 2000 Value

7.8 45.6 33.9 15.1 16.6 9.2 1.6 -0.4 -18.5

Table 1: The largest members and quintiles dominated 2017 index returns

Source: Semper Augustus Investments

Graph 1: Growth has been outperforming value since 2006

Sources: PSG Asset Management, Bloomberg

1982 1986 1990 19941974 1998 2002 20061978 2010 2014 2018

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Growth outperforming value


Paul Bosman

Paul Bosman joined PSG Asset Management in 2004. His responsibilities include portfolio management and equity analysis.Paul is the Fund Manager of the PSG Balanced Fund and PSG Stable Fund. He is also Co-Fund Manager of the PSG Flexible Fund and PSG Diversified Income Fund.

‘Perils of perception’ - and keeping a clear line of sight

South Africans are most likely to think things are worse than they really are This is according to global market research firm Ipsos Mori, which ranked the country top – or ‘most wrong’ – in its latest Misperceptions Index. The index is constructed based on the outcome of the company’s annual ‘Perils of Perception’ survey. In 2017, it revealed that out of the 38 countries surveyed throughout Europe, the Americas, Asia and further abroad, South Africans most consistently overestimate the size of their problems. While survey topics ranged from murder statistics to general health to smartphone ownership, we would venture that the trend might also hold true for negative assessments of the local investment environment.

When investing, perception is a double-edged swordActing on perception can be a costly mistake, but acting on the back of others’ misperceptions can get the odds in your favour. To place our clients on the right side of this dynamic, our process focuses us on the facts. We believe that this is the only way to discern between perception and reality, and to effectively gauge the odds of various outcomes. Blindly relying on perception (yours or others’) is likely to cloud your vision.

A recent (mis)perception: South Africa is headed for collapseIn the afterglow of the ‘Ramaphosa effect’, it is difficult to imagine that a year ago, sentiment towards South Africa was clouded by fear and negativity. Political instability, worsening fiscal metrics and credit rating downgrades had spooked local and foreign investors alike. But was the situation as bad as the market was pricing in?

At the time, our funds were invested in South African government bonds, and holdings included several domestic-facing companies (both positions we largely maintain). This was not because we were predicting the opposite of what the market was predicting – or in fact, any specific outcome at all. Rather, we believed that market prices reflected the certainty of a negative outcome, when several facts indicated that this was not a foregone conclusion.

The facts reminded us that South Africa remained a functioning democracy, with an independent judiciary and independent central bank. In addition, our public debt remained well structured, both in terms of currency and maturity. Furthermore, although the size of this debt was unhealthy in relation to GDP, it was not as dire as credit markets suggested.

However, news flow, sentiment – and therefore security prices – were all fixated on the worst possible outcome. This was especially visible in the prices of local government bonds and banks. Since mid-December, the 20-year government

bond delivered a total return of 15% to end March 2018, and the local banking index 25%. While we are very careful of referencing short-term returns, this might prove to be a fundamental re-pricing. A ‘wait-and-see’ approach that limited exposure to South African-facing securities may therefore have come at a cost.

Current (mis)perceptions?“South African industrials have rallied and run their course. There’s no further upside.”While the prices of South African-centric stocks have recovered from the lows seen in 2017, many remain on very reasonable multiples of low profits. These profits were generated at a time when activity levels and confidence in the South African economy were very low. In fact, gross fixed-capital formation was lower than in 2014, when adjusted for inflation. There is therefore a reasonable chance that the market is underestimating the future potential profits of these companies (and multiples tend to rise when profits rise).

“The rand is strong and likely to weaken.”Predicting the movement of any currency is difficult, especially in the short and medium term. Furthermore, perceptions of a currency’s strength or weakness are often the result of its recent direction of travel. This is a dangerous over-simplification.

There are several scenarios under which the rand could strengthen further – and perhaps dramatically – from current levels. (Lyle Sankar writes more about this in his article on page 6.) Positioning a portfolio with a strong bias towards rand-hedge assets based purely on exchange rate predictions may therefore be problematic. As long-term, bottom-up investors, we believe in evaluating each security we consider on its individual merits – and not on macroeconomic or currency views. Our portfolios therefore include South African bonds and industrial stocks (which will benefit from a stronger rand), as well as international stocks, which could detract from fund performance if the rand strengthens. We don’t predict currencies.

Diversified portfolios of quality, undervalued instruments should continue to serve investors wellWe believe that perception is a powerful force that favours the most informed – so we make it a priority to be well informed. We aim to achieve this by, firstly, always doing our own homework: we rely on original sources rather than second-hand, ‘packaged’ research. Secondly, our team-based approach encourages debate and critical thinking. Finally, the investment checklists we’ve developed from our prior experience and learnings act as a final risk overlay, ensuring that facts – and not perceptions – remain at the forefront of our process.

6 |

‘An overvalued rand’ – a closer look at the common perception

Lyle joined PSG Asset Management in 2014 and was appointed Fund Manager of the PSG Money Market Fund in 2018. In addition to his fund management responsibilities, Lyle performs fixed income research for the broader team.

The rand is generally deemed strong, and offshore investments more attractive than domestic optionsA broad review of market commentary and portfolio positioning clearly shows a consensual view among local asset managers that the rand has overshot as a result of ‘Ramaphoria’ and finds itself overvalued. Furthermore, many argue that after a sharp re-pricing of South African assets since November, bonds are unattractive and domestic equities are pricing in excessive optimism. In contrast, rand hedges are deemed attractive. Many investors are being advised to take advantage of the increase in regulatory limits for offshore assets in prescribed funds (from 25% to 30%, excluding Africa) by using rand strength to immediately increase their allocations.

Investing globally offers many advantages but should not be based on currency viewsWe consider global investments an essential building block for most domestic portfolios. The JSE is small and the benefits of a wider universe, diversification and hard currency protection cannot be underestimated. Furthermore, market timing is always difficult (if not impossible) and it is better to be buying dollars at R12/$ as opposed to R16/$ – where the exchange rate was two years ago. However, we do not consider it a foregone conclusion that the rand must weaken from here. In fact, we think it is very possible that the rand could be stronger than anticipated for a sustained period. We also think it is advisable to pause and question whether building a portfolio based on a singular view that the rand is overvalued is appropriate. Lastly, we believe that both South African government bonds and cheap domestic equities continue to provide an opportunity for attractive long-term returns at relatively low levels of risk.

We do not make currency forecasts and do not build portfolios on a directional rand viewWe are, however, cognisant of longer-term economic cycles – and in particular, how the dollar cycle impacts emerging markets. (We wrote about this in the third quarter of 2017.) We take this into account when managing our portfolios and aim to ensure that our client outcomes will be satisfactory regardless of unpredictable short-term movements.

Based on purchasing power parity (PPP), the rand is undervalued A review of PPP (which gives an indication of the fundamental value of an exchange rate between two countries) may offer an alternative perspective to the view that the rand is currently overvalued. In Graph 1, it is noticeable that the rand is still undervalued on this basis. In fact, based on PPP, its fair value is closer to R10.70/$.

While PPP has its flaws as a predictive tool, it does give us pause for thoughtThe shortcomings of using PPP as a predictive tool for currencies have been well documented. Firstly, it is very sensitive to which starting point you use and can be heavily influenced by short swings in inflation. Secondly, the rand is the key driver of local inflation and a move in exchange rates can have a causal impact on inflation differentials (the difference between two countries’ inflation rates).

That said, Graph 1 is instructive in several ways. Market participants have a tendency to extrapolate recent experiences. We think many are likely guilty of extrapolating the experience

Lyle Sankar

Graph 1: Rand/dollar exchange rate relative to PPP (inflation differential)

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Sources: PSG Asset Management, Nedbank

1998 2000 2002 20041994 2006 2008 20101996 2012 2014 2016 2018

Rand/dollar less PPP Average

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of the later years of the Zuma era, when the rand traded at more than two standard deviations below PPP fair value on a sustained basis. In total, it has traded weaker than the PPP value for four years, the longest period of successive weakness over the last 25 years. It can therefore be argued that the sharp appreciation since November is in fact a partial reversal of fundamental undervaluation.

We also observe that the rand has been strong relative to a PPP value for 60% of the time since democracy, contrary to popular perception. Interestingly, this has generally been during periods of synchronised global economic growth (such as 2005 to 2007 and 2010 to 2012, circled in the graph). It is therefore important to note that we are currently witnessing such conditions – and that the rand has previously displayed sustained multi-year strength when the global growth stars were aligned.

Rand weakness is not a necessary precursor to local growth Another widely held perception is that the South African economy needs a weak currency to grow, given that currency strength acts as a headwind for many of our primary industries. Here, it is worth noting that the period in which South Africa experienced the strongest sustained GDP growth (3% and over) over the past two decades was between 2004 and 2007 – a period that coincided with a strong rand. This was a time of synchronised global growth and low levels of South African inflation.

We believe the medium-term inflation outlook is favourableWe think that there is a broad under-appreciation of how successful the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has been at anchoring inflation expectations within its targets over the past 15 years: it has managed to repeatedly drop inflation below the 6% upper limit despite adverse conditions and extended rand weakness, as Graph 2 shows.

CPI is currently at 4% and, given the SARB’s credible inflation targeting track record, we expect benign medium-term domestic inflationary pressure. This is an outcome that we do not think is priced into longer-dated South African government bonds, even after the rally of recent months. We continue to view real yields as attractive for this asset class and our clients retain exposure.

Strong global growth and low local inflation stand to benefit the local economyThe combination of a favourable global economic backdrop and benign domestic inflation could likely give impetus to further interest rate cuts, which should provide a meaningful boost to the domestic economy. When we consider the low base of consumer and business confidence levels and the improved outlook for governance at state-owned enterprises, we could be looking at further upward revisions to South African GDP over the years ahead. This would be an environment in which the rand is likely to be stronger for longer.

We do not believe portfolios should be positioned for a weaker randGiven the consensual positioning of domestic portfolios for a weaker rand and the fondness for expensive rand hedges, this scenario could see lower investment returns than many investors have become used to. A strong rand will also act as a headwind for the offshore equities that our clients own, but we take comfort from the high dollar returns we expect from current valuation levels. Furthermore, our portfolios contain a number of higher-quality domestic stocks that remain very cheap and on low levels of earnings. These stocks have missed out on the re-pricing of ‘SA Inc’, which has largely been restricted to the widely held JSE large caps. They should therefore do especially well in an environment of improving South African confidence and a strengthening rand.

In our minds, a key question clients should be asking their portfolio managers is: have you built a portfolio that only does well if the rand weakens?

Graph 2: South African CPI

Sources: PSG Asset Management, Bloomberg

South African CPI SARB upper limit

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2005 2006 2007 20082003 2009 2010 20112004 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

8 |

The fund aims to provide capital security, easy access to your money and a steady incomeThe key objectives of the PSG Money Market Fund are preserving capital, maintaining sufficient liquidity to meet all investor requirements, and delivering attractive returns within the confines of its mandate. To achieve these objectives, it invests in selected local money market instruments that are issued by government, parastatals, corporates and banks and have a maturity term of less than 13 months.

Who is the fund appropriate for?The fund sits at the bottom of the risk/return spectrum and is suitable for investors who:• seek capital stability, interest income and easy access to

their money through a low-risk investment• need an interim investment vehicle or 'parking bay' for

surplus money• have a short-term investment horizon

However, while a money market fund offers a secure investment, it is not completely risk free. As with any investment, severe capital losses may reduce the capital value of the portfolio.

Declining inflation bodes well for real returns on money market instrumentsHeadline inflation (CPI) in February was 4.0% – down from 4.4% in January, 5.3% in December 2017 and 6.3% a year ago. The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has further indicated that it intends to target an inflation rate that is closer to the midpoint of its 3% to 6% target range, at 4.5%. Given this downward trend (shown in Graph 1) – and the SARB’s commitment to supporting it – many money market instruments are currently offering an opportunity for inflation-beating returns, in an area of the market focused purely on capital preservation.

Short-term interest rates are currently attractiveDespite a favourable backdrop for lower interest rates (a stronger rand, falling inflation and signs of economic recovery), short-term money market rates remain attractive. Graph 2 shows that although money market rates have fallen from the levels we locked in for clients in 2017 amid poor South African sentiment, attractive opportunities remain. In particular, the longer end of the negotiable certificate of deposit (NCD) curve continues to offer high real yields, with the current 12-month rate close to 7.65%. With inflation at 4.0%, this means that NCDs potentially carry a real yield of 3.65% at low levels of credit risk.

The PSG Money Market Fund: preserving capital and providing a steady income

Lyle joined PSG Asset Management in 2014 and was appointed Fund Manager of the PSG Money Market Fund in 2018. In addition to his fund management responsibilities, Lyle performs fixed income research for the broader team.

Basic fund informationFund name: PSG Money Market FundFund size: R3.4 billionASISA sector: South African – Interest Bearing – Money MarketBenchmark: South African – Interest Bearing – Money Market MeanManager: Lyle Sankar

Lyle Sankar

Graph 1: South African CPI is trending lower

Sources: RMB, PSG Asset Management

Current SARB forecast Inflation path (current variables)

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3.5

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JUN '16

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DEC '19


We have locked in high real yields for our clientsAt certain points in an interest rate cycle, there are opportunities to attain real yields while still preserving capital. When these opportunities present themselves, we take advantage.

As at end March, fixed-rate instruments comprised 59% of the portfolio, reflecting our views of a lower interest rate trajectory. The fund’s largest asset allocation is to NCDs (66%), two thirds of which comprise fixed-rate NCDs. Corporate credit, acquired at spreads above our internal fair value spreads, comprises 5.2% of the fund. Over the past few months, we have further managed to gain exposure to South African treasury bills (the

lowest-risk South African government credit instruments) at yields above those offered by NCDs with comparable maturities. As such, we have locked in the inflation-beating yields currently on offer, while maintaining an internal average fund credit rating of AA and a comfortable aggregate level of fund liquidity.

Graph 3 shows the gross real returns (before fees, adjusted for inflation) of the PSG Money Market Fund over the past four years (since the start of the recent interest rate hiking cycle in 2014). With the fund’s current yield above market expectations of inflation, it should continue to serve investors well going forward.

Graph 2: Current money market rates

Source: Bloomberg

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NCD curve: 31 March 2017 NCD curve: 31 March 2018

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Graph 3: The PSG Money Market Fund is yielding above-inflation returns

Source: PSG Asset Management

PSGMMF yield less CPI

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10 |

Portfolio holdings as at 31 March 2018

Top 10 equitiesOld Mutual plc

Discovery Holdings Ltd

Glencore plc

AECI Ltd

Brookfield Asset Management Inc

Tongaat-Hulett Ltd

Super Group Ltd

Babock International Group plc

Grindrod Ltd

Barclays Africa Group Ltd

PSG Equity Fund

Top 10 equitiesBrookfield Asset Management Inc

Nedbank Group Ltd

Old Mutual plc


AIA Group Ltd

AECI Ltd

Super Group Ltd

L Brands Inc

Tongaat-Hulett Ltd

Grindrod Ltd

PSG Balanced Fund

Top 10 equitiesOld Mutual plc

Brookfield Asset Management Inc


AECI Ltd

Glencore plc

Babock International Group plc

Super Group Ltd

Tongaat-Hulett Ltd

Grindrod Ltd

Nedbank Group Ltd

PSG Flexible Fund

Asset allocation

• Domestic equity 76%

• Domestic property 1%

• Foreign equity 22%

• Foreign property 1%

Total 100%

Asset allocation


• Domestic cash and NCDs 13%

• Domestic bonds 24%



Total 100%

Performance

PSG Equity Fund FTSE/JSE All Share TR Index

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

'02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18

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usa

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0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

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Performance

PSG Balanced Fund Inflation +5%

'02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18'00

PSG Flexible Fund Inflation +6%

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Ran

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Performance

'06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18'04

Asset allocation


• Domestic cash and gold 20%


• Domestic property 1%


• Foreign cash and gold 3%


Total 100%



Nedbank Group Ltd

Old Mutual plc

Hudaco Industries Ltd

AIA Group Ltd

Top 5 issuer exposuresFirstRand Bank Ltd

Republic of South Africa

Standard Bank of SA Ltd

Absa Bank Ltd

Nedbank Ltd

PSG Stable Fund



PSG Group Ltd

Hudaco Industries Ltd

AIA Group Ltd

Top 5 issuer exposuresFirstRand Bank Ltd

Absa Bank Ltd



Nedbank Ltd

PSG Diversified Income Fund

Top 10 issuer exposuresStandard Bank of SA Ltd

FirstRand Bank Ltd

Absa Bank Ltd

Nedbank Ltd


Capitec Bank Ltd

PSG Money Market Fund

Land and Agricultural Development Bank of SA

Bidvest Group Ltd

MMI Group Ltd

PSG Income Fund

Asset allocation





• Foreign cash 1%


Total 100%

Asset allocation





• Foreign cash 1%

Total 100%

Asset allocation

• Fixed-rate notes 57%

• Floating-rate notes 39%


Total 100%

PSG Stable Fund Inflation +3% over a rolling 3-year period

Performance

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Ran

d (

tho

usa

nd

s)

'12 '15 '16 '17 '18'11 '14'13

Performance

PSG Diversified Income Fund Inflation +1%

50

100

150

200

250

300

Ran

d (

tho

usa

nd

s)

'12 '14 '16'06 '10'08 '18

Performance

PSG Income Fund STeFI Composite Index

60

120

80

100

140

160

'11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

Ran

d (

tho

usa

nd

s)

12 |

Top issuer exposuresNedbank Ltd


FirstRand Bank Ltd

Absa Bank Ltd


Land and Agricultural Development Bank of SA

Investec Bank Ltd

Capitec Bank Ltd

PSG Money Market Fund


Babcock International Group plc

AIA Group Ltd

Simon Property Group Inc

The Mozaic Co

L Brands Inc

Glencore plc

Pandora A/S

Colfax Corp


PSG Global Equity Sub-Fund


Babcock International Group plc

AIA Group Ltd

Simon Property Group Inc

The Mozaic Co

Glencore plc

L Brands Inc

Pandora A/S

Colfax Corp


PSG Global Flexible Sub-Fund

Asset allocation

• Linked NCDs/Floating-rate notes 24%

• Step rate notes 15%

• NCDs 44%

• Bill 15%

• Call deposits 2%

Total 100%

Regional allocation

• US 26%

• Europe 5%

• UK 17%

• Asia ex Japan 7%

• Japan 5%

• Canada 7%

• Africa 4%

• Other 1%

• Cash 28%

Total 100%

Regional allocation

• US 34%

• Europe 6%

• UK 21%

• Asia ex Japan 8%

• Japan 6%

• Canada 9%

• Africa 5%

• Other 1%

• Cash 10%

Total 100%

PSG Money Market Fund (ASISA) South African IBMoney Market Mean

Performance

0

300

100

200

400

500

Ran

d (

tho

usa

nd

s)

'00 '02 '04 '06 '10 '12 '14 '16'08 '18

Performance

50

200

100

150

250

US

do

llar

(th

ou

san

ds)

PSG Global Equity Sub-Fund

MSCI Daily TR Net World USD Index

'10 '12 '14 '16 '18'11 '13 '15 '17

Performance

US

do

llar

(th

ou

san

ds)

'13 '15 '17'14 '16 '18

PSG Global Flexible Sub-Fund US inflation +6%

40

100

60

80

120

140

160

180


Percentage annualised performance to 31 March 2018 (net of fees)

Source: 2018 Morningstar Inc. All rights reserved as at end of March 2018. Annualised performances show longer-term performance rescaled over a 12-month period. Annualised performance is the average return per year over the period.Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

International funds

1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years Inception Inception date

PSG Global Equity Sub-Fund A 8.52 5.61 6.52 5.82 23/07/2010

MSCI Daily Total Return Net World USD Index (in USD) 13.60 7.97 9.71 10.55

PSG Global Flexible Sub-Fund A 7.51 5.57 6.09 6.07 02/01/2013

US inflation +6% (in USD) 8.22 7.99 7.42 7.52

Local funds

1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years Inception Inception date

PSG Equity Fund A 2.87 5.59 12.56 12.15 17.87 01/03/2002

FTSE/JSE All Share Total Return Index 9.60 5.05 10.02 9.67 14.05

PSG Flexible Fund A 4.72 7.43 12.87 13.39 16.10 01/11/2004

Inflation +6% 10.04 11.77 11.43 11.71 11.86

PSG Balanced Fund A 5.34 6.68 10.89 10.46 14.16 01/06/1999

Inflation +5% 9.04 10.77 10.43 10.71 10.58

PSG Stable Fund A 7.63 7.52 8.60 9.79 13/09/2011

Inflation +3% over a rolling 3-year period 7.04 8.77 8.43 8.47

PSG Diversified Income Fund A 8.69 8.25 7.86 7.95 7.97 07/04/2006

Inflation +1% 5.04 6.77 6.43 6.70 7.13

PSG Income Fund A 8.73 8.13 7.18 6.83 01/09/2011

STeFI Composite Index 7.46 7.21 6.60 6.34

PSG Money Market Fund A 7.51 7.23 6.58 6.98 8.51 19/10/1998

South African Interest Bearing Money Market Mean 7.64 7.32 6.64 7.03 8.52

PSG Global Equity Feeder Fund A -4.42 4.19 11.19 11.97 03/05/2011

MSCI Daily Total Return Net World USD Index (in ZAR) 0.37 7.17 15.46 17.74

PSG Global Flexible Feeder Fund A -5.31 4.02 11.57 10/04/2013

US inflation +6% (in ZAR) -4.38 7.19 13.81

14 |

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16 |

Contact information

Disclaimer: Collective Investment Schemes in Securities (CIS) are generally medium- to long-term investments. The value of participatory interests (units) or the investment may go down as well as up and past performance is not a guide to future performance. CIS are traded at ruling prices and can engage in borrowing and scrip lending. Fluctuations or movements in the exchange rates may cause the value of underlying international investments to go up or down. Where foreign securities are included in a portfolio, the portfolio is exposed to risks such as potential constraints on liquidity and the repatriation of funds, macroeconomic, political, foreign exchange, tax, settlement and potential limitations on the availability of market information. The portfolios may be capped at any time in order for them to be managed in accordance with their mandate. Excessive withdrawals from the fund may place the fund under liquidity pressure and, in certain circumstances a process of ring-fencing withdrawal instructions may be followed. The fund may borrow up to 10% of the market value to bridge insufficient liquidity. Unit trust prices are calculated on a net asset value (NAV) basis, which is the market value of all assets in the fund, including income accruals less permissible deductions divided by the number of units in issue. Fees and performance: Prices are published daily and available on the website www.psg.co.za/asset-management and in the daily newspapers. A schedule of fees, charges and maximum commissions is available on request from PSG Collective Investments (RF) Limited. Commissions and incentives may be paid and, if so, are included in the overall costs. Forward pricing is used. Different classes of Participatory Interest can apply to these portfolios and are subject to different fees, charges and possibly dividend withholding tax and will thus have differing performances. Performance is calculated for the portfolio and individual investor performance may differ as a result thereof. All performance data for a lump sum, net of fees, include income and assumes reinvestment of income on a NAV-NAV basis. Income distributions are net of any applicable taxes. Annualised performance show longer-term performance rescaled over a 12-month period. Source of performance: Figures quoted are from Morningstar Inc. Cut-off times: The cut-off time for processing investment transactions is 14h30 daily, with the exception of the PSG Money Market Fund, which is 11h00. The portfolio is valued at 15h00 daily. Additional information: Additional information is available free of charge on the website and may include publications, brochures, application forms and annual reports. Company details: PSG Collective Investments (RF) Limited is registered as a CIS Manager with the Financial Services Board, and a member of the Association of Savings and Investments South Africa (ASISA) through its holding company PSG Konsult Limited. The management of the portfolios is delegated to PSG Asset Management (Pty) Limited, an authorised Financial Services Provider under the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act 2002, FSP no 29524. PSG Asset Management (Pty) Limited and PSG Collective Investments (RF) Limited are subsidiaries of PSG Konsult Limited. Money Market: The PSG Money Market Fund maintains a constant price and is targeted at a constant value. The quoted yield is calculated by annualising the average 7-day yield. A money market portfolio is not a bank deposit account. Excessive withdrawals from the portfolio may place the portfolio under liquidity pressures and in such circumstances a process of ring-fencing of withdrawal instructions and managed payouts over time may be followed. The total return to the investor is made up of interest received and any gain or loss made on any particular instrument. In most cases the return will merely have the effect of increasing or decreasing the daily yield but in the case of abnormal losses it can have the effect of reducing the capital value of the portfolio. Fund of funds: A fund of funds portfolio only invests in portfolios of other CIS, which levy their own charges, which could result in a higher fee structure for fund of funds portfolios. Feeder funds: A feeder fund is a portfolio that, apart from assets in liquid form, invests in a single portfolio of a CIS, which levies its own charges and which could result in a higher fee structure for that feeder fund.

Trustee: The Standard Bank of South Africa Limited, Main Tower, Standard Bank Centre, 2 Hertzog Boulevard, Cape Town, 8001. Tel: +27 (21) 401 2443. Email: [email protected]. Conflict of Interest Disclosure: The funds may from time to time invest in a portfolio managed by a related party. PSG Collective Investments (RF) Limited or the Fund Manager may negotiate a discount in fees charged by the underlying portfolio. All discounts negotiated are re-invested in the fund for the benefit of the investor. Neither PSG Collective Investments (RF) Limited nor PSG Asset Management (Pty) Limited retains any portion of such discount for their own accounts. The Fund Manager may use the brokerage services of a related party, PSG Securities Limited.

PSG Collective Investments (RF) Limited does not provide any guarantee either with respect to the capital or the return of the portfolio and can be contacted on 0800 600 168 or on email at [email protected].

© 2018 PSG Asset Management Holdings (Pty) LimitedDate issued: 2 May 2018

The information and content of this publication is provided by PSG as general information about its products. The information does not constitute any advice and we recommend that you consult with a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions. For further information on the funds and full disclosure of costs and fees refer to the fund fact sheets on our website.

Local unit trusts0800 600 [email protected] Offshore unit trusts0800 600 [email protected] General enquiries+27 (21) 799 [email protected]

Websiteswww.psg.co.za/asset-managementwww.psgkglobal.com

Cape Town office

Physical addressFirst Floor, PSG House Alphen ParkConstantia Main Road ConstantiaWestern Cape 7806

Postal addressPrivate Bag X3 Constantia7848

Switchboard+27 (21) 799 8000

Guernsey office

Address11 New StreetSt Peter Port GuernseyGY1 2PF

Switchboard+44 (1481) 726034

Client servicesSA Toll Free 0800 600 168

Malta office

AddressUnit G02Ground floorSmartCity MaltaSCM 01RicasoliKalkara SCM 1001

Telephone+356 (2180) 7586


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