andrii gritsevskyi
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
IAEAInternational Atomic Energy Agency
Prospects of Global Nuclear Power Development
Ukrainian Nuclear Forum-2012
Andrii Gritsevskyi Planning and Economic Studies Section
IAEA
World Electricity Production Mix 2010
67%
18%
13.5%
about 2%
Thermal
Hydro
Nuclear
Renewables
Source: RDS-1 2011
IAEA
Nuclear share of electricity (2010)
Source: RDS-2 2011
IAEA
Current status: March 2012
In operation436 nuclear powerreactors [370 GW]
• USA 104• France 58• Japan 50• Russia 33• S. Korea 23
Source: PRIS
IAEA
Operational Nuclear Power Reactors
IAEA
Power Reactor Information System
IAEA
Current status: March 2011
Under Construction
63 nuclear power reactors
• China 26• Russia 10• India 7• Korea, Rep. 3• Bulgaria, Japan, Pakistan,
Slovakia Ukraine 2
Source: PRIS
IAEA
Reference Data Series No. 1
Reference Data Series No. 1 (RDS-1) is an annual publication containing estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear power trends up to the year 2050.
• 31 editions – 31+ years of experience
• Major improvements over time
• 10 figures and 14 tables
• Referenced in about 1200 publications
http://www-pub.iaea.org/books/IAEABooks/8786/Energy-Electricity-and-Nuclear-Power-Estimates-for-the-Period-up-to-2050-2011-Edition
IAEA
Nuclear Projections
• Projections of future energy and electricity demand and the role of nuclear power are presented as low and high estimates encompassing the inherent uncertainties involved in projecting trends.
• The RDS-1 estimates should be viewed as very general growth trends whose validity must be constantly subjected to critical review.
IAEA
Nuclear Power Development in Different Regions
2010 2020 2030 2050
0
100
200
300
400
500
114126
149
200
119 111 120
North America
Year
GW
(e)
2010 2020 2030 2050
0
100
200
300
400
500
4 618
60
6 9 15
Latin America
Year
GW
(e)
2010 2020 2030 2050
0
100
200
300
400
500
123 126141
200
93 8360
Western Europe
Year
GW
(e)
2010 2020 2030 2050
0
100
200
300
400
500
2 216
48
2 5 10
Africa
Year
GW
(e)
2010 2020 2030 2050
0
100
200
300
400
500
522
53
140
1330
50
Middle East & South Asia
Year
GW
(e)
2010 2020 2030 2050
0
100
200
300
400
500
81
164
255
450
130
180
220
Far East
Year
GW
(e)
2010 2020 2030 2050
0
100
200
300
400
500
47
80
108
170
6682 80
Eastern Europe
Year
GW
(e)
2010 2020 2030 2050
0
100
200
300
400
500
6
48
5
South East Asia & the Pacific
Year
GW
(e)
IAEA
IAEA – LOW Projection
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
history
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
GW
(e)
IAEA
IAEA – HIGH Projection
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
history
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
GW
(e)
IAEA
IEA World Energy Outlook 2011:Nuclear power capacity in the Low Nuclear Case
Source, WEO 2011, IEA
IAEA
Statement to Fifty-Fifth Regular Session of IAEA General Conference 2011
“Following the Fukushima Daiichi accident, there was speculation that the expansion in interest in nuclear power seen in recent years could come to an end. However, it is clear that there will, in fact, be continuous and significant growth in the use of nuclear power in the next two decades, although at a slower rate than in our previous projections.”
IAEA
Introductory Statement to Board of Governors (1)
“… the Agency has updated its projections concerning the outlook for nuclear power in the wake of the Fukushima Daiichi accident. We now expect the number of operating nuclear reactors in the world to increase by about 90 by 2030, in our low projection, or by around 350, in our high projection, compared to the current total of 432 reactors.”
IAEA
Introductory Statement to Board of Governors (2)
“Most of the growth is still expected to occur in countries that already have operating nuclear power plants, especially in Asia. China and India will remain the main centres of expansion and their nuclear power capacities by 2030 are expected to be as projected before the accident, after a temporary period of slower growth.”
IAEA
Introductory Statement to Board of Governors (3)
“The projected slowdown in global growth reflects an accelerated phase-out of nuclear power in Germany, some immediate shutdowns and a government review of the planned expansion in Japan, and temporary delays in expansion in several other countries.”
IAEA
Introductory Statement to Board of Governors (4)
“In countries considering introducing nuclear power, interest remains strong, despite Fukushima Daiichi. Most of these countries are proceeding with plans to add nuclear power to their energy mix, although a few countries have cancelled or revised their plans, while others have taken a 'wait and see' approach.”
IAEA
Statement to Fifty-Fifth Regular Session of IAEA General Conference 2011
“The factors that contributed to increasing interest in nuclear power before the Fukushima Daiichi accident have not changed: these include increasing global demand for energy, as well as concerns about climate change, volatile fossil fuel prices and security of energy supply.”
IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano
IAEA 20
Thank you