andrea alden florida fish and wildlife conservation commission
TRANSCRIPT
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Andrea AldenFlorida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission
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Relative vulnerabilities of some SGCN
to climate change
NatureServe’s Climate Change Vulnerability
Index
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Exposure– Temperature and moisture
Indirect exposure– SLR, barriers, land use
Species sensitivity – Dispersal ability– Sensitivity to change in temp
and precipitation– Habitat specificity– Genetic factors
Dispersal, niche, disturbance – Diet, genetics, …
Response– Range, protected areas
Defenders Partnership:Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI)
Glick et al. 2011
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All photos courtesy of en.wikipedia.org
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CCVI: select SGCN scores
Extremely Vulnerable
Highly Vulnerable
Moderately Vulnerable
Not Vulnerable/Presumed Stable
Not Vulnerable/Increase Likely
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Relative vulnerabilities of our species
to climate change
NatureServe’s Climate Change Vulnerability
Index tool
then
Spatially Explicit Vulnerability Analyses
(SEVA)
Habitat modelingAnd
Future land-use scenarios
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Spatially Explicit Vulnerability Analyses• 6 focal species
2 birds – least tern & short-tailed hawk2 reptiles – Atlantic salt marsh snake & America crocodile2 mammals – Florida panther & Key deer
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50 years into the future– 2010, 2040, and 2060
Scenarios varied across 4 dimensions:– Climate change represented by sea level rise– Changes in human population represented by
urbanization– Land & water planning policies represented by
infrastructure expansion– Availability of public resources for conservation
Future Land-Use Scenarios
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Future Land-Use Scenarios
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Scenario Dimensions & Future Scenarios
Scenario B – best case Scenario E – middle Scenario C – worst case
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SEVA ProcessAmerican Crocodile Orientation
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3 future land use scenarios + habitat models = impact maps
SEVA Process
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Relative vulnerabilities of our species
to climate change
NatureServe’s Climate Change Vulnerability
Assessment tool
next
Spatially Explicit Vulnerability Analyses
(SEVA)
Future land-use scenarios And
Habitat and modeling
Conceptual modelingAdded a spatial component
Potential adaptation strategiesAnd
Locations to implement
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Conceptual Modeling
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Adaptation Strategy Map
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Obstacles & Lessons Learned
Good to have two methods– Different assumptions/caveats– Different data & uncertainties– Comparison of results
Modeling changes in coastal areas is more difficult and time consuming
Models of vegetation change and succession under climate change is needed
Working with experts takes time but brings collaboration and buy-in
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Adaptation Strategies1. Room to move strategies
• Fill data gaps on vegetational and species responses
• Habitat maintenance & improvement2. Competing with neighbors strategies• Research effects of roads & other
barriers, potential mitigation options• Work w/ private landowners to conserve
landscape features3. Surrounded on all sides strategies• Most difficult to address
Continue filling data gaps on species dynamics
Actively manage available habitat to bolster populations
Identify and conserve corridors