andre kudelski - world economic forum annual meeting 2010-1

8/7/2019 Andre Kudelski - World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2010-1

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Global Redesign Initiative

Session Summaries from the

World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2010

Managing and Mit igating Global Risks

1) Rethinking Population Growth

2) Global Energy Outlook

3) Rethinking Humanitarian Assistance: Implications for Haiti

4) IdeasLab on the Global Redesign Initiative (Global Risks)

5) A Global Solution to Illicit Trade?

6) Prepared for a Pandemic?

7) Rethinking How to Feed the World

8) Securing Cyberspace


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World Economic Forum Summary

Davos-Klosters, Switzerland 27-31 January

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26 gri/population growth

Rethinking Population Growth

The UN estimates that by 2050 world population will increase from 6.8 billion today to 9.2 billion.

How can the major risks associated with population growth be managed?

Key Points The rate of population growth has slowed from 1.8% from 1950 through 2000 to a current growth

rate of just 1%, but population momentum means that the world will still add three billion newpeople during the current half century

In contrast to the population bomb of the last century, the world now faces population clusterbombs accelerated growth in some of the worlds most fragile countries while others experiencepopulation decline

Population growth both increases poverty by overwhelming development programmes and is fedby poverty, which reduces the ability of families to control their lives

The education and empowerment of women can be an effective way to prevent overly rapidpopulation growth by enabling women to take control of their lives and family size

SynopsisIt took 50,000 years for the worlds population to reach one billion people. The fact that another threebillion will be added by 2050 despite a declining growth rate is due to the fact that the population isalready as large as it is.

While the population is actually declining in the West and Japan, the areas that continue toexperience rapid population growth are often the most fragile and least able to withstand the addedstress. Rwanda, for instance, has a birth rate of 5.5%, compared to a global average of 2.3%. By thetime the government had instituted a programme to lift one million people out of poverty, anothermillion had already been born. As a result, the programme, which ran from 2001 through 2005, onlyreduced overall poverty by 4%.

Experience has shown that when women are educated and empowered to have property and control

over their own assets, the growth rate declines. Schooling often delays marriage, as does enablingwomen to work. Access to healthcare allows women to make their own decisions. Another factor thatcan help both overpopulation and the destabilization that results from a declining population is theliberalization of laws controlling migration. The bottom line is that controlling population growthrequires dealing with multiple issues.

Session PanellistsLaura Liswood, Secretary-General, Council of Women World Leaders, USA; Global Agenda Councilon the Gender GapMichael B. McCallister, President and Chief Executive Officer, Humana, USAJohn Rwangombwa, Minister of Finance and Economic Planning of RwandaAnn M. Veneman, Executive Director, United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), New York; GlobalAgenda Council on the Welfare of Children

Moderated byDavid E. Bloom, Clarence James Gamble Professor of Economics and Demography, Harvard Schoolof Public Health, USA; Global Agenda Council on Population Growth


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DisclosuresThis summary was prepared by William Dowell. The views expressed are those of certain participantsin the discussion and do not necessarily reflect the views of all participants or of the World EconomicForum.

Copyright 2010 World Economic ForumNo part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or

redistributed without the prior written consent of the World Economic Forum.

Wednesday 27 January

Keywords: Population, immigration, womens rights, social stability, development, poverty, education,resources

Recommended reading for: Non-governmental organizations, Civil Society Leaders, Women Leaders,Global Agenda Councils on Population Growth, Poverty & Development Finance, and EconomicGrowth & Development


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52 gri/energy outlook

Global Energy Outlook

Despite the major decline in energy prices from their peak in 2008, energy security concerns haveincreased as major producing and consuming economies differ significantly on how to develop a moresecure and stable energy system.

How can producers and consumers develop mutually beneficial approaches to energy security?

Key Points

The Great Recession of 2008-2009 has not fundamentally changed the global energy outlook,with energy demand expected to increase by 40% in the next 20 years with hydrocarbonsproviding up to 80%

Nor has the recession fundamentally changed the capital investment plans of major oil and gascompanies; in reducing oil demand by 3% against an expected increase in demand of 1%, therecession may have pushed back any future peak in oil production

There has been a structural shift in the market, as European and mature Asian markets enterstructural decline, and as China and others continue to grow; China is now the worlds largestautomobile market

Energy independence is a myth; but achieving energy security implying a long-term balance ofinterests between producers, transit countries and consumers is essential

The investments needed to overcome a 4-5% natural decline in existing fields and open newfields sufficient for production and demand over the next 20 years are estimated at US$ 27trillion, several times the amount spent to bail out the financial sector

An all of the above approach, incorporating production increases, opening of new oil and gasfields, energy efficiency measures and investment in alternative technologies may be needed toprovided stability in oil and gas markets, vital for both producers and consumers

SynopsisThe keys to energy security are stability, predictability and a long-term balance of interests betweenproducers, transit countries and consumers. Problems will result if this balance is disrupted.

Private consumers need stable prices to guarantee their mobility and the smooth functioning of theeconomic system. Industries such as the chemicals industry which depends heavily onhydrocarbons as feedstock, and which is not able to pass on increases in input prices to finalconsumers need stable prices to safeguard their business models. Financial hedging is no longersufficient given the fourfold increase in price volatility; Dow Chemicals oil and gas costs have risenfrom US$ 8billion in 2002 to US$ 32 billion in 2008.

Producers need stability to be able to justify large-scale investments in upstream exploration andproduction, and in refining and supply infrastructure. Income from oil and gas must be used, as inAzerbaijan, to diversify the countrys economic base. Ultimately, the world needs energy, much ofwhich will continue to come from oil and gas, even under the most aggressive targets for stabilizationof atmospheric carbon dioxide.

Several new sources of oil and gas for global or regional markets are now apparent. Azerbaijan plansto increase gas supplied to the global market by a factor of two or three, focusing on markets inneighbouring countries (including those with ample gas supplies themselves) and the European


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Union. Technology is improving the capacity of the most specialized and technology-rich companies which tend to be the international oil companies (IOCs) to develop deepwater fields (up to 10kilometres) in the Gulf of Mexico and challenging fields in the Arctic. Iraq may yet provide up to 10million barrels per day (bpd) to global oil production within the next decade.

Saudi Arabia, which currently has spare capacity of 4 million bpd out of total productive capacity of10-12 million bpd, plans to mitigate any natural decline in production in major fields and will consider

increases in production if the situation appears favourable. Investments in refining and in supplyinfrastructure, notably tankers, will remain. Maintaining spare productive capacity is viewed as ademonstration of responsible stewardship of natural resources. But there is a concern that there areno reciprocal assurances from policy-makers in consuming countries.

Reaching peak production levels variously viewed as 95 million bpd, 100 million bpd or 100 million-plus bpd will depend on above ground as much as below ground issues. Much of the technicalexpertise is held by IOCs, and their contribution to new investment is disproportionate to their share ofoverall production (20-22% of investments, compared to 15-16% of current production).

Gas may play an increasingly important role, particularly as a bridge to a more environmentallysustainable energy future, as an abundant and much cleaner source of electricity generation.Unconventional gas, particularly in the United States, may prove to be a game changer. But no

single source of energy will guarantee energy security. The low-hanging fruit of energy efficiency often with a rapid payback period must be grasped first.

Session PanellistsIlham Aliyev, President of AzerbaijanThierry Desmarest, Chairman of the Board of Directors, Total, FranceKhalid A. Al Falih, President and Chief Executive Officer, Saudi Aramco, Saudi ArabiaTony Hayward, Group Chief Executive, BP, United KingdomAndrew N. Liveris, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Dow Chemical Company, USAPeter Voser, Chief Executive Officer, Royal Dutch Shell, Netherlands

Moderated byDaniel Yergin, Chairman, CERA; Executive Vice-President, IHS, USA; Global Agenda Council on

Energy Security

DisclosuresThis summary was prepared by Charles Emmerson. The views expressed are those of certainparticipants in the discussion and do not necessarily reflect the views of all participants or of the WorldEconomic Forum.

Copyright 2010 World Economic ForumNo part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means orredistributed without the prior written consent of the World Economic Forum.

Thursday 28 January

Keywords: oil, gas, energy, energy security, geopolitics, global governance, resources, scarcity

Recommended reading for: Business leaders, government leaders, Global Agenda Councils onEnergy Security, Food Security, Climate Change


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53 gri/humanitarian assistance

Rethinking Humanitarian Assistance: Implications for Haiti

Major disasters over the last several years (including the 2004 tsunami and 2005 Pakistanearthquake) have taught valuable lessons on the role of prevention, better coordination and theeffective use of the private sector.

Are these lessons being applied in Haiti?

Key Points

The disaster in Haiti is the first mega-humanitarian crisis in an urban setting

Cooperation and coordination among humanitarian and development agencies are improving

National and local capacities to deal with natural disasters should be strengthened

Engaging the private sector is important, not just as a source of donations but also as a source ofkey skills and technologies

SynopsisFollowing the earthquake in Haiti that has claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands of people and

destroyed much of the capital, Port-au-Prince, humanitarian and development agencies are workingtogether on much needed aid and are starting to plan rebuilding efforts. Better cooperation andcoordination among intergovernmental and non-government organizations are needed, as well as theinclusion of the private sector, to prepare for the next natural disaster wherever it may hit.

In the past, there were many competing forces when it came to humanitarian assistance, especiallyamong non-government organizations; this is improving as smaller organizations are collaboratingbetter with larger ones. To strengthen response capacity, organizing on related work clusters isproving more efficient for organizations, companies and people to focus their contributions.

With the tragedy in Haiti still unfolding, it is too early to address lessons learned from the emergencyrelief effort. However, based on experience from the Asian tsunami, earthquakes in China andPakistan, and other natural disasters, humanitarian organizations have come to recognize the pivotal

role the military and private sector can play in assisting with relief efforts. For example, the militarytends to be very useful in the early phases of a rescue operation, while the private sector often hasthe expertise that humanitarian organizations lack, such as telecommunications and airport handling.To benefit communities affected by humanitarian crises, partnerships between humanitarianorganizations and private sector companies should be further developed.

The disaster in Haiti is the first mega-humanitarian crisis in an urban setting. As such, more work isneeded to address urbanization issues, including housing and water supplies. Schools, clinics andcommunity centres should be earthquake-proof when rebuilding.

It is important to listen to the local community in meeting their needs and to involve them inemergency response and reconstruction measures. Faster restoration of local markets improves thechances for a faster recovery. It is also important to support the current government during and after a

disaster. Despite the tragedy in Haiti, many are optimistic that the relief effort is coming together andthat through risk reduction and preparedness the country will better weather future natural disasters.


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Other Key TakeawaysOther issues to be considered in humanitarian assistance include improving standards andmeasurements, the long-term effect on children and the value of digital inclusion, including connectingwith people on the ground through cell phones.

Session Panellists

Catherine Bragg, Assistant Secretary-General, United Nations Office for the Coordination ofHumanitarian Affairs (OCHA), GenevaNicolas Mariscal Torroella, Chairman of the Board, Grupo Marhnos, MexicoSadako Ogata, President, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), JapanCameron Sinclair, Co-Founder and Executive Director, Architecture for Humanity, USA; YoungGlobal LeaderBarbara Stocking, Chief Executive, Oxfam GB, United Kingdom

Moderated bySimon Maxwell, Senior Research Associate, Overseas Development Institute, United Kingdom;Global Agenda Council on Humanitarian Assistance

DisclosuresThis summary was prepared by Mark Schulman. The views expressed are those of certainparticipants in the discussion and do not necessarily reflect the views of all participants or of the WorldEconomic Forum.


Thursday 28 January

Keywords: Haiti, earthquake, humanitarian aid, private-public partnerships

Recommended reading for: Global Agenda Council on Humanitarian Assistance, Humanitarian ReliefInitiative (HRI), Disaster Resource Network


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84 ideaslab/gri risks

IdeasLab on the Global Redesign Initiative (Global Risks)

The Global Redesign Initiative aims to improve international cooperation on the pressing challenges of the21st century. Experts in this IdeasLab explore the following innovative proposals to address globalchallenges:- Energy Security: Global Energy Forum

- Skills Gap: Migration and the Skills Gap- Corruption: Global Anti-Corruption Compliance Partnership- Population Growth: Strengthening International Organizations Demography Need Not be Destiny- Humanitarian Assistance: New Humanitarian Partnerships

Key Points

Energy Security: A global energy forum that brings consumers and producers together is needed tobridge gaps in the governance of energy markets

Skills Gap: A global multistakeholder dialogue is required to shape a mechanism for facilitating migrationto address skills gaps around the world

Corruption: To combat corruption and poor governance around the world, stakeholders should cometogether to take a more comprehensive and aggressive approach

Population Growth: The United Nations should put population growth and ageing demographics at theforefront of global priorities by strengthening the role of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)

Humanitarian Assistance: The international community should adopt a new business model forhumanitarian assistance to create more effective multistakeholder partnerships to mitigate the impact ofnatural disasters through better preparedness and more efficient and well-coordinated response andrecovery

Synopsis

Energy Security: Global Energy ForumThe governance of energy markets lags far behind reality. There are gaps in managing the connectionsbetween energy and water, and between energy and food. New champion economies such as China andIndia have to be brought into the equation. In addition, ways have to be found to bring consumers andproducers together. This proposal entails the setting up of an energy stability board that would include the 10

consumers and 10 producers that matter most. The organization would eventually become a much largerglobal energy forum. This bottom-up strategy would make participation more appealing to new players in themarket.

Skills Gap: Migration and the Skills GapThis proposal is to launch a multistakeholder cooperative process aimed at shaping a mechanism to facilitatethe movement of people from one country to another to help address skills gaps where they exist and protectthe welfare of migrant workers.

Corruption: Global Anti-Corruption Compliance PartnershipUnder this proposal, the World Economic Forum would serve as the platform for launching a globalmultistakeholder partnership against corruption. The coalition would include multinational companies, state-owned enterprises and NGOs dedicated to improving governance standards and practices

Population Growth: Strengthening International Organizations


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The proposal is to bolster the UNFPA to become a more active and prominent organization. This rebrandingwould signal that the UN is putting the problem of population growth and ageing demographics what oneparticipant described as the most undermanaged and underestimated of global risks at the forefront.

Humanitarian Assistance: High-Performing Tri-sector PartnershipsThis proposal aims to create a new business model for humanitarian assistance and natural disaster relief.This would be achieved by first building a comprehensive framework for identifying and assessing risks.

Spending would be rebalanced to focus more on prevention and recovery. The new partnership model,which would bring together governments, business and civil society, would be locally driven, nationallycoordinated and globally supported. The key will be to launch it in a high-priority region such as South-EastAsia or Southern Africa and then scale it up and expand it. To raise global awareness about this newapproach, the international community could designate an International Disaster Preparedness Day similar tothe annual event held in Japan.

Opening Remarks byRichard Samans, Managing Director, World Economic Forum

Discussion LeadersDavid Arkless, President, Corporate and Government Affairs, Manpower, United Kingdom; Global AgendaCouncil on the Skills Gap

David E. Bloom, Clarence James Gamble Professor of Economics and Demography, Harvard School ofPublic Health, USA; Global Agenda Council on Population GrowthSimon Maxwell, Senior Research Associate, Overseas Development Institute, United Kingdom; GlobalAgenda Council on Humanitarian AssistanceArmen Sarkissian, President and Founder, Eurasia House International, United Kingdom; Global AgendaCouncil on Energy SecurityCobus de Swardt, Managing Director, Transparency International, Germany; Global Agenda Council onCorruptionDavid G. Victor, Professor, University of California, San Diego (UCSD), USA; Global Agenda Council onEnergy Security

Facilitated byRichard T. Pascale, Associate Fellow, Sad Business School, University of Oxford, United Kingdom

DisclosuresThis summary was prepared by Alejandro Reyes. The views expressed are those of certain participants inthe discussion and do not necessarily reflect the views of all participants or of the World Economic Forum.

Copyright 2010 World Economic ForumNo part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributedwithout the prior written consent of the World Economic Forum.

Thursday 28 January

Keywords: corruption, disaster relief, humanitarian assistance, skills gap, migration, energy security,population growth, demographics

Recommended reading for: Global Agenda Councils on Energy Security, Humanitarian Assistance,Corruption, Population Growth and the Skills Gap; Global Risks Network; Disaster Resource Network


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141 gri/illicit trade

A Global Solution to Illicit Trade?

Human trafficking and the illicit flow of arms, money, drugs, wildlife and counterfeit items areestimated to amount to US$ 1-3 trillion or 7-10% of the world economy, a tenfold increase since 1990.

What can global institutions, governments and multinationals do to contain the rise of illicit

international trade?

Key Points

Human trafficking and the illegal trade in goods and money is big business: If illicit trade were anational economy, it would rival most in the G8

The World Economic Forums Global Agenda Council on Illicit Trade is preparing to push forinitiatives that scale up efforts to increase consumers awareness of their own responsibility,through their buying choices, for promoting or combating human misery

Poverty drives illicit trade, and legitimate trade alleviates poverty; the challenge facing lawenforcement officials is to facilitate the right type of commerce, while protecting societies from thewrong type

SynopsisWhether money launderers, narcotraffickers, counterfeiters or slave traders, those involved in illicittrade do major damage to human society and the global economy. The scale and scope of such illicittrade has grown 1,000% in the last two decades, and today the dark economy stands as a real threatto peace and stability on every continent. And yet, as a subject of discussion in international forums,illicit trade remains in the margins of the global agenda. The Global Agenda Council on Illicit Tradeaims to highlight the problem.

Rule of law, poor policing, corruption, and especially poverty and underdevelopment give rise to illicittrade. There is no one central body in charge of combating the trade worldwide, and that failure ofglobal governance has caused the problem to metastasize rapidly. Leadership and political will areoften lacking, and those countries that are willing and eager to fight criminal enterprises often lack thecapacity. Public-private partnerships can advance the cause. For example, if major brand name

companies would fund anti-counterfeiting efforts, it would enable a more robust response on the partof foreign governments. New technologies, particularly track-and-trace innovations, can also enhancethe toolkits of customs officers and police.

Session PanellistsSandro Calvani, Director, United Nations Interregional Crime and Justice Research Institute(UNICRI), Turin; Global Agenda Council on Illicit TradeWellington Chibebe, Secretary-General, Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU), ZimbabweHuguette Labelle, Chair, Transparency International, Germany; Global Agenda Council on the Futureof Mining & MetalsRicardo Martinelli, President of PanamaKunio Mikuriya, Secretary-General, World Customs Organization (WCO), Brussels; Global AgendaCouncil on Trade

Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria

Moderated byMoiss Nam, Editor-in-Chief, Foreign Policy Magazine, USA; Global Agenda Council on Illicit Trade


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DisclosuresThis summary was prepared by Ben Skinner. The views expressed are those of certain participants inthe discussion and do not necessarily reflect the views of all participants or of the World EconomicForum.

Copyright 2010 World Economic Forum

No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means orredistributed without the prior written consent of the World Economic Forum.

Friday 29 January

Keywords: illicit trade, counterfeiting, human trafficking, slavery, narcotics, rule of law, corruption

Recommended reading for: Young Global Leaders, CEOs, Non-Governmental Organizations,Technology Pioneers, Civil Society Leaders, Women Leaders, Media Leaders, Global AgendaCouncil on Illicit Trade


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157 gri/pandemics

Prepared for a Pandemic?

A survey revealed that although 60% of CEOs believe the threat of a pandemic is real, only 22% havean emergency plan and only 27% are working on developing one.

What can industry and government do to improve their pandemic readiness?

Key Points

The interconnected nature of the global economy is likely to result in unexpected effects from apandemic. A company may find that a disease halfway around the world stops it from receivingcritical parts or materials needed for its own manufacturing

Just-in-time logistics are particularly vulnerable during pandemics. Either the supply line isdisrupted, or manufacturers of medical supplies are likely to be overwhelmed by sudden peakdemands. It is best to stockpile critical supplies

Emergency continuity planning (ECP), deciding in advance what to prepare and how to react, isthe key to survival in a pandemic situation

The emergency plan, including details on how to respond to various scenarios, must be in placebefore the pandemic strikes. All levels of the corporation need to be informed about which steps

to follow Hygiene, using hand sanitizers and face masks, can be a more effective deterrent to disease than

trying to prevent travel from areas where the pandemic is taking place

SynopsisBoth the swine flu outbreak in Mexico and the outbreak of SARS in Asia provide valuable insights intohow companies need to prepare for possible pandemics. One of Mexicos largest microcredit banks,serving more than 1.5 million customers, was able to continue functioning through the swine fluoutbreak largely because the company had developed an emergency continuity plan prior to theoutbreak. As soon as the flu spread, the company implemented plans to have 80% of its headquartersstaff operate from home, and adopted pre-arranged strategies for continuing service to clients. Incontrast, a large chain of Mexican movie theatres with 14,000 employees was forced to suspend

operations for nearly a month and ran a significant loss.

A US-based medical distributor was disturbed to find that one of the largest suppliers of equipment fordentistry did its basic manufacturing in Pakistan, and then finished manufacturing its instruments inSwitzerland. An epidemic in South Asia could have shut down the supply line.

Another medical supplier found that a warning from the President of France to French citizens to usehand sanitizers led to a sudden peak in demand which exhausted supplies to Europe for at least aweek. In contrast, a history of less than reliable logistical networks in Asia meant that many medicalsuppliers had stockpiled supplies in advance and were able to meet sudden increases in demand.Attempts to use infrared detectors to identify feverish passengers arriving in Asian airports werelargely unsuccessful. On the other hand, Asian cities were very successful at promoting hygiene.Restaurants in Hong Kong served customers with anti-microbial hand wipes along with conventional

napkins.

A recurring observation during the discussion was that, once a pandemic starts, the flood ofconflicting and often misleading information is likely to dramatically increase the difficulty of making


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executive decisions and communicating them to employees. As a result, it is crucial to have acontingency plan already in place.

Discussion LeadersDouglas M. Baker Jr, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Ecolab, USAStanley M. Bergman, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer, Henry Schein, USA;

Global Agenda Council on PandemicsKiyoshi Kurokawa, Professor, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS), Japan; GlobalAgenda Council on the Future of JapanMichael Osterholm, Director, Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP),University of Minnesota, USA; Global Agenda Council on PandemicsAlvaro Rodriguez Arregui, Co-Founder and Managing Partner, IGNIA Partners, Mexico; YoungGlobal Leader; Global Agenda Council on Philanthropy & Social InvestingTan Chorh-Chuan, President, National University of Singapore, Singapore; Global Agenda Councilon PandemicsNathan D. Wolfe, Chief Executive Officer and Founder, Global Viral Forecasting Initiative (GVFI),USA

Facilitated by

Angela McLean, Director, Institute for Emerging Infections, Zoology Department, University ofOxford, United Kingdom; Global Agenda Council on Pandemics

DisclosuresThis summary was prepared by William Dowell. The views expressed are those of certain participantsin the discussion and do not necessarily reflect the views of all participants or of the World EconomicForum.


Friday 29 January

Keywords: Pandemic, epidemic, disease, medical emergency, contingency planning, globalization,health

Recommended reading for: CEOs, Civil Society Leaders, Young Global Leaders; Members of theGlobal Agenda Council on Pandemics


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166 gri/food security

Rethinking How to Feed the World

Global food demand will double between now and 2050 as the worlds population reaches 9.2 billion.

How can the increased demand for food be met in an economically and environmentally sustainablemanner?

Key PointsProposed Goals:

Ensure there is no hungry or malnourished child by 2020

Double food production in Africa over the next 10 years

Double the income of small farmers so they can feed themselves and make money

View Africa as the continent to feed the world; the average African farmer feeds two people, theEuropean 130 better technology and financial resources can change this

Double agricultural investment throughout the world; post-harvest waste should be halved

Eliminate trade barriers and subsidies to improve worldwide food production

SynopsisOne billion people suffer from malnutrition throughout the world. This is the single-most important and neglected issue on the global agenda. Feeding the planets population is a huge challenge.Today there are 6.2 billion people; by 2050 the number is expected to rise to 9.2 billion. Nevertheless,there is no reason why this challenge cannot be overcome. Sufficient land, water, technology andskills are available. What needs to happen, however, is to overcome the constraints.

The issue is not just that the worlds population will grow by 50% over the next 40 years. The need foragricultural products will double. Agricultural investment and innovation will need to increase in theshort term. But technology alone is not enough; farmers require more education and collaboration.There are other challenges, too, such as climate change or the wasted use of available foodresources for the production of biofuel. There also has been a shift in the type of food wanted withpopulations moving increasingly to urban areas.

Africa has not yet had a green revolution. It is critical to invest in approaches that go beyond. Thismeans working with traditional methods, but also finding the most appropriate scientific expertise forresponding to these problems. Transgenic solutions, such as wheat or rice with resistant genes, mayprove more effective, but countries themselves need to decide which genes are safe. A lot of data andinformation is available on the benefits of genetically-modified seeds. These can help bridge the gap.

Food security is not just an economic or humanitarian issue. It also affects social and political stability.However, to ensure food security, both productivity and distribution need to be improved. This meansmaking better use of science and new technologies. For some countries, genetically modified cropsare not necessarily required if self-sufficient. Improving food productivity is important, but so isensuring that crops reach their markets. An enormous amount of post-harvest waste can be remediedthrough better management and storage.

Other forms of intervention can make significant differences, such as improved mechanization. InAfrica, only 10% of agriculture is done by tractor. Irrigation, too, needs to be increased. Four percentof the land in Africa is artificially watered, compared to 20% in Asia. More high-yield seeds andfertilizer also need to be used. In Tanzania, only 9 kg of fertilizers per hectare are spread, comparedto 50 kg in South Africa. Another challenge is making more trained extension workers available to


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local farmers. A further factor is the need to involve women more. Women are at the centre ofagriculture in Africa, and yet only receive a fraction of the training. Another issue is helping farmers,particularly those without properly defined land rights, to receive better access to loan credits.

The elimination of farm subsidies, trade tariffs and price controls can contribute enormously to greaterproductivity. Protectionism tends to benefit farmers in the richer countries rather than those in thedeveloping world. This can lead to huge disparities. But subsidies are also a huge waste of money.

Far more effective would be to channel such funds into development aid. These could then be appliedto improve storage facilities or the quality and quantity of rice or coffee production. A betterenvironment for investment is needed, particularly for the small farmer.

Session PanellistsWilliam H. Gates III, Co-Chair, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, USAJakaya M. Kikwete, President of TanzaniaEllen Kullman, Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer, DuPont, USANguyen Tan Dung, Prime Minister of Vietnam; Chair, 2010 ASEANNgozi Okonjo-Iweala, Managing Director, World Bank, Washington DC; Global Agenda Council onCorruptionPatricia A. Woertz, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Archer Daniels Midland (ADM),

USA; Co-Chair of the Governors Meeting for Consumer Industries 2010; Co-Chair of the WorldEconomic Forum Annual Meeting 2010

Moderated byPrannoy Roy, Chairman, New Delhi Television (NDTV), India

DisclosuresThis summary was prepared by Edward Girardet. The views expressed are those of certainparticipants in the discussion and do not necessarily reflect the views of all participants or of the WorldEconomic Forum.

Copyright 2010 World Economic Forum

No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means orredistributed without the prior written consent of the World Economic Forum.

Friday 29 January

Keywords: food security, agriculture, international aid, development, humanitarian, investment

Recommended reading for: international aid workers, development agencies, bankers, policy-makers,foundations, Members of the Global Agenda Council on Food Security


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190 gri/internet security

Securing Cyberspace

A new piece of malicious software is introduced every 30 seconds.

What must be done to decrease the vulnerability of the Internet?

Key Points

It is difficult to target cyber crime when criminals have no identity, country or boundaries

Cyber attacks have gone from computer hacking for the sake of being malicious, to making moneythrough fraud, to state involvement and espionage

More international cooperation is needed to investigate cyber attacks and try to solve the attributionproblem

Synopsis

Over 2 million viruses, worms, back doors or Trojans have emerged over the past two years, and the

threats are constantly growing. People used to hack computers for notoriety, and then as a criminalactivity. Today, companies and nation-states are also behind cyber attacks, in the form of industrialand military espionage, respectively.

Attribution is a fundamental issue. The biggest challenge is identifying who is behind a cyber attackand from where it comes. Cyber criminals are anonymous and operate without boundaries.

There are at least 10 countries with national intelligence services sophisticated enough to launch anattack and make it appear as if it came from elsewhere. The question is: at what stage does a cyberattack constitute an act of war? How does one retaliate, and what deterrence plans can be put inplace? What is the governments role in protecting non-military assets?

More international cooperation is needed to investigate cyber attacks and try to solve the attribution

problem. With 4.5 billion users around the world, an international framework may be one way toaddress the issue.

Such a framework or treaty should ensure that countries commit to protecting their citizens, freedomof access and information sharing, and that no country harbour (cyber) terrorists. As the biggest usergroup, children are most likely to give away information, often naively; they need to be protected.

Traditionally, cyber security has been about building defensive castles and bigger moats to blockviruses. But, as attacks become more sophisticated, there is a need to use cyber tools to respond; asmall attack requires a big response.

In the future, users may need to have an authenticated drivers license when cruising the Internetsuperhighway. Although the Internet is a place of freedom that allows anonymity, a price may have to

be paid for increased security. Finding the right balance between security and privacy is a constantchallenge.


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Session PanellistsSusan M. Collins, Senator from Maine (Republican), USAAndr Kudelski, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer, Kudelski Group, SwitzerlandCraig Mundie, Chief Research and Strategy Officer, Microsoft Corporation, USAPaul Sagan, President and Chief Executive Officer, Akamai Technologies, USAHamadoun I. Tour, Secretary-General, International Telecommunication Union (ITU), Geneva;Global Agenda Council on the Future of Mobile Communications

Moderated byJonathan Zittrain, Professor of Law, Harvard Law School, Berkman Center for Internet and Society,USA; Young Global Leader; Global Agenda Council on the Future of the Internet

DisclosuresThis summary was prepared by Mark Schulman. The views expressed are those of certainparticipants in the discussion and do not necessarily reflect the views of all participants or of the WorldEconomic Forum.


Saturday 30 January

Keywords: Internet users, cyber attack, security, privacy

Recommended reading for: World Economic Forum Information Technology & TelecommunicationsIndustry Partners, Technology Pioneers, Members of the Global Agenda Councils on InternationalSecurity Cooperation, the Future of the Internet

andre kudelski - world economic forum annual meeting 2010-1

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