and spatial analysis on 3e under a constraint on radiative ......300 350 400 2000 2010 2020 2030...

Regional and Spatial Analysis on 3E under a Constraint on Radiative Forcing:

Integrated Assessment Using Economic, Land‐use, and Ecosystem Models

Presentation: Ken’ichi Matsumoto (NIES)and

Toshihiko Masui, Toru Nozawa, Yasuaki Hijioka, Sawako Ishiwatari, MikikoKainuma (NIES), Tsuguki Kinoshita (Ibaraki Univ.), Etsushi Kato (JAMSTEC)

2010/2/21 1AIM Intl. WS@NIES

Summary of RCPs

• Representative Concentration Pathways

• Pre‐scenarios to develop new scenarios for AR5

• Input for climate models and basis for development of socioeconomic scenarios

• The data are provided not only in the regional scale but also in the gridded scale (0.5 x 0.5 degrees) for gases emissions and land‐use change.

• Four RCPs exist and each one scenario is analyzed by one modeling team.


Approach toward AR5


Source: Moss et al. (2010) Publication Dates‐WGI Report: Sep., 2013‐WGII Report: Mar., 2014‐WGIII Report: Apr., 2014‐Synthesis Report: Sep., 2014

Selection of RCPs

Name Radiative Forcing Concentration Pathways Shape

RCP8.5 8.5W/m2 (in 2100) <= ~1370ppm CO2‐eq Rising

RCP6.0 ~6.0W/m2 (stabilization after 2100) ~850ppm CO2‐eq Stabilization without overshoot

RCP4.5 ~4.5W/m2 (stabilization after 2100) ~650ppm CO2‐eq Stabilization without overshoot

RCP3‐PD < 3W/m2 (peak and decline) ⇒ 2.6W/m2 < ~490ppm CO2‐eq Peak & decline


Source: Moss et al. (2010)

Four RCPs: RF and CO2 Emissions

Radiative Forcing 2000‐2100 CO2 Emissions 2000‐2100


012345678910

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

RF (W

/m2)

year

AIM ‐ RCP 6.0 MiniCAM ‐ RCP 4.5 IMAGE ‐ RCP3‐PD (2.6) MESSAGE ‐ RCP 8.5

‐5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

CO2 Em

ission

s (PgC)

year

AIM ‐ RCP 6.0 MiniCAM ‐ RCP 4.5 IMAGE ‐ RCP3‐PD (2.6) MESSAGE ‐ RCP 8.5

‐5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

CO2 Em

ission

s (PgC)

year

AIM ‐ RCP 6.0 AIM ‐ Reference MiniCAM ‐ RCP 4.5 MiniCAM ‐ Reference IMAGE ‐ RCP3‐PD (2.6) IMAGE ‐ Reference MESSAGE ‐ RCP 8.5

Four RCPs: Population and GDP

Population Scenarios 2000‐2100 GDP Scenarios 2000‐2100


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

World Pop

ulation (billion)

year

AIMMiniCAMIMAGEMESSAGE

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

GDP (trillion

US$20

00)

year

AIMMiniCAMIMAGEMESSAGE

AIM/CGE [Global]

EmissionsDownscale

Land UseDownscale

Pop & GDPscenario

GHG & aerosolemissions pathways

Base yearemissions

RF

Pop & GDPDownscale

Pop & GDPgridded data

Regional & sectoralemissions & economic

scenario

Global

Region

Country

Grid

Land‐use change

EcosystemModel

RCP6.0 spatially‐detailed scenario

Flow of RCP6.0 Analysis

2010/2/21 7

Land use

Emissions from land‐use and burning

Emissions from energy & industry

AIM/Impact [Policy]

Climate change Impact Response Function

Impact/Adaptation

GHG Emissions

AIM/Impact [Policy]

Global GHG emission path

GMTI

Pattern scaling module

Climate Scenario by country

Potential impact

estimation module

National/ Sector‐wise impacts

Integrated assessment

(Emission/Climate/Impacts)

Energy‐economic model

Simple climate model

GCM results Adaptation

8

Global Emissions Pathways

Reference RCP6.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

CO2

CH4

N2O

SOx

BC

OC

CO

NOx

NMVOC

unit: 2000=1.0


AIM/CGE [Global]

Final demand sector

Commoditymarket

food

serviceenergy

...

TradeJapan

China...

Energy technology model: energy efficiencyAgriculture model: land productivity

...

Annual parameter change

Gasesemissions

Gasesemissions

Climatechange

Feedbacke.g. Land productivity change due to climate changeScenarios: population, GDP, ...


Production factormarket

capital

Production sectors

land

resourcelabor

CO2 Emissions from FF and Industry (TgC)

2010/2/21 12

Reference RCP6.0

• CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry will be abated about 40% in 2100.

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

AUS NZL CHN JPN KOR IDN THA XSEIND XSA CAN USA MEX ARG BRA RUSXME ZAF XRA XE15 XE10 XRE XLM XAF

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

6W(F) 6W(B)

CCS Technology (TgC/yr)

AIM Intl. WS@NIES

Energy (EJ)

Primary (Reference)

2010/2/21 13

Primary (RCP6.0)

Final (Reference) Final (RCP6.0)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass Hydro Renewables

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass Hydro Renewables

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Solids Liquids Gas Electricity

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Solids Liquids Gas ElectricityAIM Intl. WS@NIES

GDP (tri. US$2000)

2010/2/21 14

Reference RCP6.0

• Although GDP will increase more in the reference case than in the RCP6.0, the difference is not so large.

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100


0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100


AIM Intl. WS@NIES

Data Population GDP

UN population（UN Long range）

224 countriesPopulation data

(2000-2050)

183 countriesGDP data

(2000-2100)

224 countriesPopulation data

(2000-2100)

３０ secondGrid cell pop.(2000-2100)

UN population（UN shot range)

IFs GDP scenario

224 countriesGDP data

(2000-2100)

UN Urbanization

30 secondGrid cell GDP(2000-2100)

Income gap

GTAP GDP in 2001

IIASAPopulation scenario

Population rank‐size rule

Urban area rank‐size rule

Data

2010/2/21 16

Population/GDP Downscaling Model

AIM Intl. WS@NIES

2000 2050

2100

2010/2/21

Population Scenario

0.00E+00

2.00E+03

4.00E+03

6.00E+03

8.00E+03

1.00E+04

1.20E+04

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

AUS NZL CHN JPN KOR IDN THA XSE

IND XSA CAN USA MEX ARG BRA RUS

XME ZAF XRA XE15 XE10 XRE XLM XAF

1. Urban (GDP, crop price…)2. Cropland (yield, slope angle…)3. Pasture (NPP, slope angle…)4. Harvest forest (population density..)

Geophysical constraint・Built‐up area < 5 degree・Forest < 20 degreeetc.

0.5 degree

1km2010/2/21 19

Land‐use Model

2000 2050

2100

2010/2/21

Land‐use Scenario (Cropland)

0.00E+00

5.00E+05

1.00E+06

1.50E+06

2.00E+06

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100




2000 2050

2100

2010/2/21

Land‐use Scenario (Pasture)

0.00E+00

5.00E+05

1.00E+06

1.50E+06

2.00E+06

2.50E+06

3.00E+06

3.50E+06

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100




AIM/Impact [Policy]

AIM/CGE [Global]

Land UseDownscale

Pop & GDPscenario

GHG & aerosolemissions pathways

Base yearemissions

RF

Pop & GDPDownscale

Pop & GDPgridded data

Regional & sectoralemissions & economic

scenario

Global

Region

Country

Grid

Land‐use change

EcosystemModel

RCP6.0 spatially‐detailed scenario

Flow of RCP6.0 Analysis

2010/2/21 22

Land use

Emissions from land‐use and burning

Emissions from energy & industry

EmissionsDownscale

・Power plant & energy conv. (POP)・Industry: process & combustion (GDP)・Solvent use (GDP)・Residential & commercial (Rural POP)・Waste (POP)・Agriculture: waste (Cropland)・International shipping・Aviation・Transportation (road & railroad)・Agriculture : Animal & Soil

2010/2/21

Sector Region IndicatorsElectricity XE15 Population

Electricity USA Population

… … …

Agriculture XE15 Cropland

… … …

Summed up

From AIM/CGE [Global]

AIM

24 regions

Downscaling by Indicator

Global Distribution

Regional Distribution

23

Emissions Downscaling Model

AIM Intl. WS@NIES

Emissions Downscaling Methods

Method Sector and indicator

Case 1Changes in regional emissions are downscaled according to spatially explicit indicators for each sector and each region.

・ENE (total population)・IND (GDP)・SLV (GDP)・DOM (rural population)・WST (total population)・AWB (cropland area)

Case 2 Global distribution at year 2000 is scaled by world total emissions.

・SHP・AIR

Case 3 Regional distribution at year 2000 is scaled by regional total emissions for each region.

・TRA・AGR

Case 4 Estimate with terrestrial carbon cycle model (VISIT).

・SAV・LCF


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100


Case 1 (CH4 from Industry)

20502100

Reference RCP6.0

Case 2 (CH4 from International Shipping)

2010/2/21 26

2050

Reference RCP6.0

AIM Intl. WS@NIES

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100


0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100


Case 3 (CH4 from Agriculture)

Reference RCP6.0

Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Model (VISIT)

2010/2/21 29

Assessing carbon cycle by TCC model using the matrix

Transition matrix of Land‐use change by grid (λ)

Agricultural area

Primary forest

Secondary forest

ForestHarvesting

(λPS)

NaturalDisturbance

ForestHarvesting(λss)

Land clearing

Land abandonment

(λSA)

(λPA)

(λAS)

CO2 Emissions from LUC (TgC)

Land-use change

‐800

‐600

‐400

‐200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Reference RCP6.0AIM Intl. WS@NIES

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100


Case 4 (CH4 from Savanna Burning)

Reference RCP6.0

Next Step

• Extension after 2100

• Development of new IAM scenarios and storylines

• Sensitivity analysis

• Coordination with IAV and CM

• Downscaling methods

etc…


and spatial analysis on 3e under a constraint on radiative ......300 350 400 2000 2010 2020 2030...

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