Sota 1

Keshav SotaDr. MattinglyNJ ScholarsJuly 16th, 2014Analyzing effects of Black Carbon (BC) on Climate Change

Introduction:Black carbon, also known colloquially as soot, is a fine particle that currently threatens the stability of Earths climate. Studies have correlated it to increases in global temperature, rising sea levels, decrepit human health conditions, glacier eradication, as well as weather changes. The man made particle has caused immense damages and poses to continue causing damage. However, the catastrophic disasters of black carbon can substantially be averted if humans either reduce emissions or adopt technologies to moderate it. Analyzing the effects of black carbon is an important part in addressing the scientific nature of the issue and establishing it as a serious problem the world faces.

Section 2: Particular Pollution and Black Carbon: The ProblemParticular Matter is a term for the mixture of tiny solid and liquid particles that are found in the air. The sizes of the particles can vary, with some only visible through the use of an electron microscope. Particulate matter can be found in nature through two methods: primary and secondary. Primary particles are particles emitted directly by sources such as fires, construction, factory emissions, and unpaved roads. Secondary particles are reactions that occur in the atmosphere through, typically but not limited to, anthropogenic means. Sulfur dioxides, nitrogen oxides, and soot emitted through factories react in the atmosphere and produce a significant portion of pollution. Black carbon, a type of secondary particle, is a form of fine particulate matter [footnoteRef:1]that is emitted through the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and biomass. Typically created through burning of fossil fuels, black carbon is being deemed by scientists as a major catalyst in rising sea levels. Black carbons light absorbing properties have posed a significant threat to glaciers. Majority of the ice cover melting, 90%, is caused by excessive aerosol presence in snow and glacier region, of which at least 30% is black carbon.[footnoteRef:2] [1: A fine particulate matter is defined as any particle that has a diameter less than 2.5 micrometers] [2: Menon, Berkley Labs Black Carbon a Significant Factor in Melting of Himalayan Glaciers]

Fig 1[footnoteRef:3] [3: MIT. Black Carbon emissions from a factory]

Section 3: Sources of Black Carbon EmissionsA proposed solution to fighting the black carbon has been quite simply stated: reduce the total emissions. However, to cut emissions, identifying the major sources is as vital as the reduction itself. Thus, scientists can focus on the inefficiencies and rectify them.

Section 3.1: Residential Cooking and Heating as sources of black carbon emissionsIn the developing world, over 3 billion people depend on rudimentary forms of stoves and heat supplies to prepare their food. 2 The inefficient cooking methods utilized produce black carbon as a byproduct, accounting nearly 21% of all black carbon emissions globally. The general phenomenon found in least developing countries is that citizens do not have accessibility to electricity and other modern sources for heating. As a result, local supplies such as wood and coal become primary sources of fuel. For example, there are over 29 million woods burning fireplaces used that emit toxic air pollutants including black carbon.

Section 3.2 Factory Emissions China and India have been identified as major sources of black carbon emissions. The black carbon emissions in both countries have far exceeded the exposure suggested by the World Health Organization. The United States embassy in Beijing found that the average reading of particulate matter in Punjab, a province of India, was 473, almost twice of Chinas high average of 227. Only once in three weeks did Delhi, the capital of India, have a reading below 300, which is still twelve times the recommended exposure. [footnoteRef:4] A significant portion of the emissions in these countries comes from unregulated factories. In China specifically, 17% of the black carbon emitted was solely for production use. [footnoteRef:5] Typically, 21% of these export related emissions could be based in products consumed in are for the United States. As Zhi Ning, a Professor at City University of Hong Kongs School of Energy says, Air pollution doesnt have boundaries. Thus, all of the factory emissions not only cause an immense concentration of soot to form in China, but also carries over to other nations such as well. [4: US Embassy in Beijing ] [5: Bloomberg]

Section 3.3 Diesel as source of emissions Globally, diesel accounts for about 25% of all black carbon emission, most coming from on-road vehicles[footnoteRef:6]. Although there has been a shift towards black carbon reduction, 53% of US black carbon emissions yearly still comes from diesel engines in the transport industry. In Asian countries the shift towards reducing black carbon in transport industries is lagging even more. China, for example, still has over 15 million diesel vehicles that produce 600,000 tons of particulate matter, of which 80% is purely black carbon emission[footnoteRef:7]. [6: Diesel Form ] [7: China Carbon]

Section 4: Effects of Black Carbon The effects of black carbon are disparate and have immense implications. The biggest impacts however are on glaciers, weather cycle and health issues. Section 4. 1 Effects of Black Carbon on GlaciersSection 4. 1. 1: Black Carbon and the Albedo EffectThe albedo effect is the phenomenon that occurs when a fraction of solar energy is reflected from the Earth back into space. The more energy that is reflected back into space, the less UV radiation is absorbed. The ice albedo effect, specifically geared towards climate change, occurs when the suns rays hit the white surface of a glacier. If a snow- covered area warms and the snow melts, albedo decreases and more sunlight is absorbed. However, when black carbon is present on a glacier, the ice albedo effect is negated. Essentially, the emissions reduce the area of the albedo and absorb the UV radiation from the sun. Instead of reflecting, the black-carbon snow melts the glacier and runs off into the ocean, raising global sea levels. Even a small increase can have a devastating effect on coastal habitats- inland seawater can cause erosion, flooding, and contamination of aquifers. [footnoteRef:8] Furthermore, millions of people who live in low elevation areas become more prone to effects of flooding. Higher sea levels would force refugees to relocate to new areas and abandon their livestyles.5 Furthermore, experts claim that at the rate glaciers are melting, the oceans would rise between 2.5 and 6.5 feet, enough to swamp many United States East Coast cities. Black carbon emissions will have immense impacts on geography unless it is controlled. [8: National Geographic]

Fig 3[footnoteRef:9] [9: Polar Husky. The Albedo Effect]

Section 4.1.2 History of Black Carbon and GlaciersA NASA team recently uncovered that soot from the industrialization of Europe created irreparable damage to glaciers by forcing them into retreat. The Little Ice Age, defined as the cool period between 14th and 19th century, was the time when the temperature of Europe dropped by 1.8 degrees. However, even as temperatures continued to drop, glaciers were still retreating by an average of .6 miles.[footnoteRef:10] Thomas Painter, a snow and ice scientist at NASA who led the study claimed that, [Glacial Retreat] suggests that human influence on glaciers extends back to well before the industrial temperature increases. To ascertain how glaciers were being affected, ice cores were drilled from European glaciers and black carbon concentration was measured. Using computer models and simulations and prior weather conditions, the effect of black carbon was found to have been related to the economic and industrialization in Europe during the 1850s. The use of coal to heat homes and power transportation released immense quantities of black carbon into the atmosphere. As a result, glaciers were affected by these emissions and retreated instead of increasing as expected. The effects of black carbon may prove to be permanent; a phenomenon scientists have yet to analyze more. Although black carbon washes out quickly out of the atmosphere, some of the effects still are residual.[footnoteRef:11] [10: NASA] [11: Yale]

Section 4.1.3: Himalayas and Black CarbonSpecifically in isolated examples, clack carbons deposits on Tibetan glaciers have posed a significant threat to the Himalayan Mountains. In the past thirty years, temperatures have risen by 1C almost twice the rate of observed global temperature increases. NASAs Goddard Institute for Space studies (GISS) has attributed this phenomenon to the increasing presence of black carbon in the region. A researcher at Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing found that black carbon concentrations have increased two-three fold in the region since 1975. In fact, GISS has found that almost 95% of the Himalayan glaciers are currently in retreat[footnoteRef:12]. According to current climate models, if the trend continues, the glaciers are retreating so quickly that they could disappear by the mid-century.11 However, the destruction of the glaciers also poses a significant threat to the life in the region. Natives in the region are very dependent on the melt water of the glaciers, the primary source of the Ganges and Indus River. Although there are alternative methods to accrue water, the melt water from glaciers allows for stability during droughts and seasonal weather changes. As black carbon emissions are left unregulated in developing countries such as China and India, the effect of this particulate matter may become global. A study by the National Academy of Sciences found that the black carbon emissions from China are carried across the Pacific Ocean and contribute to the air pollution in the Western United States.[footnoteRef:13] The paper cites that the movement of pollutants with production of cheaper goods has caused a decline in air quality in western countries. The idea that black carbon emissions have only a local effect is simply fallacious- as trends indicate, black carbon can threaten countries that may not be heavy emitters. [12: NASA GISS ] [13: National Academy of Sciences]

Fig 4[footnoteRef:14] [14: Project Surya Glacial Retreat of Gangotri over 221 years]

Section 4.2 Black Carbons and Drought in China A joint study between Columbia University and NASA Goddard Institute for Space studies took the task to analyze the reason behind Chinas changing weather patterns.[footnoteRef:15] The study utilized climate computer models and monitored the effects of black carbon on the hydrologic cycle over China and India. In four separate simulations, the study isolated specific factors and analyzed whether changes in the factor caused an alteration in the hydrological cycle. The study found that increased black carbon was the cause behind the increasing drought in North China and the flooding in South China. Scientists on the study explained the phenomenon that when soot absorbs sunlight, it heats the air and reduces the amount of sunlight reaching the ground. As a result, the heated air generated makes an unstable atmosphere and creates clouds in heavily polluted area. Meanwhile, the rising air in South China is balanced by an increase in sinking air in North China, leading to a severe drought. The study concluded that excessive anthropogenic black carbon emissions are responsible for the change in weather patterns in China. [15: Menon et al.]

Section 5: Is Black Carbon even a problem?Since the Kyoto Protocol of 1997[footnoteRef:16], black carbon has been seen as a greater catalyst in the climate change that is occurring. However, black carbon may not necessarily be having only a heating effect. [16: The Kyoto Protocol is the UN treaty that sets binding obligations on total emissions of green house gases]

Section 5.1: Black Carbon and Net Cooling EffectBlack carbon can have multifarious effects on clouds, leading to both a cooling and heating effect. The effect that black carbon has on cloud covers [footnoteRef:17] varies based on the altitude of the black carbon. Black carbon may reduce cloud cover if it is embedded in the cloud; however, if located below, it instead enhances convection and therefore, cloud coverage. Similarly, black carbon located above the cloud layer stabilizes the layers underneath and tend to enhance stratocumulus clouds. The creation of more clouds blocks out more UV radiation [footnoteRef:18]from the sun and instead promotes a net cooling effect. Reports indicate that this phenomenon counteracts all the warming caused by black carbon and thus shows that black carbon does not have any effect on climate. [17: Mass of cloud covering all or most of the sky.] [18: Koch]

Fig 5[footnoteRef:19] [19: IPCC, Page 14 Black Carbon effects are almost negated by cloud absorption]

Section 5.2 Black Carbon Abatement Technology: Cost-benefit analysisBlack carbon, as established before, is mostly caused by ineffective burning methods such as wood and coal. In order to fix this problem, alternate technologies would need to be implemented. A cost-benefit analysis [footnoteRef:20]looked at the cost of abatement technology from inefficient combustion and found that only few viable economic options were available. For example, a wood stove worth $3 could economically be replaced with a cleaner stove worth between $10-100. However, the abatement technology of inefficient diesel trucks proves to be far more costly. To create a particle trap on trucks to reduce the amount of black carbon emission it would require a one-time expense of $5,000 -$10,000 with several thousands in repairs. Black carbon abatement technologies investments would only prove to be economically beneficial after 100 years. Therefore, simply waiting for better technologies to be developed would prove to be a more efficient plan of action rather than introducing reduction policies or technologies. [20: Bond et al ]

Section 6: Is black carbon reduction the answer?With United Nations reports stating the 50% of the emissions causing global warming, scientists have turned to black carbon as a quick method to reduce the effects of climate change.[footnoteRef:21] A study led by Dr. Mark Jacobson of Stanford University decided to test the benefits of cutting black carbon emissions and found that reductions could lower Artic temperatures by 1.7 C within fifteen years.[footnoteRef:22] A similar study by the United Nations found that the effects of reducing black carbon, which contributes 100-2000 times to warming than carbon dioxide, could easily reduce global warming by .5 C.[footnoteRef:23] To drastically reduce human black carbon emissions, one alternative offered is to simply replace inefficient wood fireplaces and stoves as well as to educate wood burners. In fact, Aprovecho Research Center found that cooking with well-made ethanol or kerosene stove would decrease particle emissions by 99%. 24 Similarly, making the switch to better technologies seemed to also increase revenue in certain cases. In third world countries such as India, where brick-making accounts for 15% of the black carbon emissions, choosing to adopt a different style of kiln would not only reduce emissions by 80% but would also generate a profit of $20,000 per year. [footnoteRef:24] Another method to hamper black carbon emissions is to make cars more efficient. By educating drivers about the importance of maintaining constant speed, accelerating gently, and using low-rolling resistance tires, fuel economy could reduce emissions by as much as 7%. 24 Reducing emissions requires a simple change from one person- the collective motion of everyone together is strong enough to make a significant change [21: United Nations] [22: Stanford University] [23: United Nations] [24: EPA]

Section 7 Conclusion: Black Carbon affecting our climate is an established fact that science has proven. However, the issue boils down to a series of ethical question. As much as science provides one with evidence, the solution resides in the values that society embraces. An important question that needs to be asked is: Is it ones obligation to help out the countries being affected? Developing countries China and India are large black carbon emitters, and without much regulation enforcement to limit emissions, they will continue to put out black carbon into the atmosphere. Rising sea levels threaten countries with low elevation such as Bangladesh, which ranks as the nation most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In fact, Black carbon already affects the lives of people daily in China through soot and smog, and has become the number two contributors to global warming. [footnoteRef:25] A Chinese study found a correlation between high black carbon particles concentration and low birth weights as well as preterm births.[footnoteRef:26] Another important question to ask that arises is whether or not black carbon is a relevant issue in perspective. Although the effects of black carbon may not be seen in the current generations lifespan, it will become a prevalent issue as time progresses. With less land available for agriculture in agrarian societies, crop output would significantly. For example, in 2008, the Mississippi River flood caused an estimated $8 billion in damages to farmer- the damages to crop production would be higher if sea levels continue to rise. [footnoteRef:27] Finally, if black carbon is an immediate issue, what solutions are available currently? Would enact new legislation make a difference? Would the introduction of new technologies to reduce the emissions be beneficial? All of these questions come down to the ethical values of society- is it possible that only a massive global paradigm shift would galvanize action? [25: IPCC] [26: National Institute of Health] [27: Environmental Protection Agency]

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