ANALYZING SOCIAL India’s 2011 A ti rr ti

MEDIA MOMENTUMAnticorruption Movement

By:

Sasha Bong

Prepared for:

The U S Office Sasha BongKenneth Chung

Karen ParkinsonAndrew Peppard

The U.S. Office of South Asia Policy

ppJustin Rabbach

Nicole Thiher

RESEARCH QUESTIONSRESEARCH QUESTIONS

Explore role of social media in social movements

? How did India’s anticorruption movement use Facebook? How is user activity on Facebook related to type of content?

How do real-world protest events and government actions affect user activity?

SOCIAL MEDIA IN INDIA AND THE 2011

Lokpal arose as a possible solution to India’s ongoing

ANTI-CORRUPTION MOVEMENT

Lokpal arose as a possible solution to India s ongoing corruption problem Lokpal would create ombudsman

Versions proposed since 1968Versions proposed since 1968

Exclusion of key officials (especially Prime Minister) is a lingering issue

Key events: April, August, and December

DATA COLLECTION

Narrowed our focus to Facebook

DATA COLLECTION

Narrowed our focus to Facebook India Against Corruption (official page), Anna Hazare (fan page)

Facebook provides easily identifiable measures of interactions Facebook provides easily identifiable measures of interactions with post content Likes: positive and supportive of content, unique users

Comments: positive or negative unique or repeat users Comments: positive or negative, unique or repeat users

We used levels of user interaction with post content as a measurement of social engagementmeasurement of social engagement

FACEBOOK INTERACTIONSFACEBOOK INTERACTIONS

SOCIAL AND TRADITIONAL MEDIA COMPARISON

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MARCH 25 – APRIL 4

The movement begins following a failed March 28th meeting:

MARCH 25 APRIL 4

The movement begins following a failed March 28 meeting:

The sub-committee… met colleagues of Hazare "but the interactions proved fruitless as the activists were insisting on the government accepting their draft in full.” Times of India news article, April 4

“After meeting with PM ended inconclusively there is no point in After meeting with PM ended inconclusively, there is no point in meeting more ministers and committees –we demand Jan Lokpaland we will have it!!!!” IAC Facebook post, March 25

“Delhi / NCR Volunteer Meet on Sunday 27th March – to mobilisemaximum people for Anna Hazare’s fast. Lets create a Tahrir Chowkat Jantar Mantar. All Delhi volunteers, please join us.” at Ja ta a ta e o u tee s, p ease jo usIAC Facebook post, March 25

DECEMBER 22 – JANUARY 5

How did the movement end? Where is the movement today?

DECEMBER 22 JANUARY 5

How did the movement end? Where is the movement today?

“Due to what is happening in the Parliament, the Anshan will finish today and our aim for now will be voter awareness and the elections today and our aim for now will be voter awareness and the elections in the five states,” Anna. IAC Facebook post, December 28, 4:49 a.m. CST

“The anti-corruption movement is at the crossroads today. Where do we go from here? …. If we do not go for the tour of election-bound states, what should we do? Should Anna go for another fast? But the government has already indicated that if people participating in the movement don’t translate into votes, they don’t care. Some have suggested we should form our own party. But we neither have the will nor the capacity.” nor the capacity. IAC Facebook post, January 5, 2012, 9:21 p.m. CST

ANALYTICAL GOALS

Correlation between Facebook user activity news media

ANALYTICAL GOALS

Correlation between Facebook user activity, news media coverage, and movement activity on the ground

Used regression analysis to determine the following: Used regression analysis to determine the following:

Which themes were important in what phases?

Did their importance change over time?

Are real world events one of the main drivers of Facebook interaction?

INDEPENDENT VARIABLES

Real World Events

INDEPENDENT VARIABLES

Government actions; Protests; Parliamentary Sessions

Days of the week

Phases Protests (2, 4, 6); Lulls (1, 3, 5, 7)

Themes Corruption, Lokpal, Anna Hazare, Hunger Strike, Demonstration, and

Government

Theme/Phase Interactions

Post Characteristics Video, Photos, News Articles, Blog Posts

PARLIAMENTARY SESSIONSPARLIAMENTARY SESSIONS

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DEPENDENT VARIABLES

DEPENDENT VARIABLES

BASIC MODEL OUTPUTBASIC MODEL OUTPUT

Basic Model 

Explanatory VariablesPercentage Change in 

Likes on a Post

Percentage Change in Comments on a 

Likes on a PostPost

Hazare ‐4.3% ‐4.2%Hunger Strike 4.4%RW Protest Event 7.7% ‐8.7%RW Positive Gov't Act 14.1% 15.2%RW Negative Gov't Act 15.0%RW Parliament Session 21.2%Video 4.5% 7.4%Wednesday 8.8% 15.0%Th d 13 1% 16 5%Thursday 13.1% 16.5%Friday 10.9% 16.1%

INTERACTION MODEL OUTPUTINTERACTION MODEL OUTPUT

Interaction Model Interaction Model

Explanatory Variables

Percentage Change in Likes on a 

Post

Percentage Change in Comments on a Post

Explanatory Variables

Percentage Change in Likes on a 

Post

Percentage Change in Comments on a Post

Corruption Phase 5 7.0%

Demonstration Phase 4 10.0%

Government Phase 6 29.8%

Lokpal Phase 2 9.6%

Lokpal Phase 3 8.8%

Lokpal Phase 6 28.9%

Lokpal Phase 7 10.9%Hazare ‐60.6% ‐56.7%

Hazare Phase 2 ‐9.4% ‐0.9%

Hazare Phase 3 ‐9.5% ‐5.6%

Hazare Phase 4 2 7% ‐2 3%

Lokpal Phase 7 10.9%

RW Protest Event 14.4%

RW Positive Gov't Act 13.3% 14.2%

RW Negative Gov't Act 15.0%Hazare Phase 4 2.7% 2.3%

Hazare Phase 5 3.8% 9.2%

Hazare Phase 6 4.8% 3.1%

Hazare Phase 7 8.4% 0.1%

RW Parliament Session 7.8% ‐16.0%Video 5.3% 7.9%Wednesday 9.1% 15.3%Thursday 14.0% 17.8%

Hunger Strike Phase 5 ‐20.9%

Hunger Strike Phase 6 ‐34.8%

yFriday 11.0% 16.5%

POST THEMES BY PHASEPOST THEMES BY PHASE

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Corruption Lokpal Hazare

Hunger Strike Demonstration Government

RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS

Not able to determine causal relationships between social

RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS

Not able to determine causal relationships between social media content and effect on “real world action”

Predictive ability in understanding how a movement may Predictive ability in understanding how a movement may respond to a specific government action or in a certain situation

Implications for the use of social media in movements for governments or organizers

Potential for greater real time data collection and broader source collection to inform conclusions

Thank YoQUESTIONS? Thank YouQUESTIONS?

For further informationContact the La Follette School’s publications office at (608)-263-7657 or publications@lafollette.wisc.edu

Or see www.lafollette.wisc.edu/publications/workshops.html

DAY-OF-THE-WEEK ACTIVITYDAY OF THE WEEK ACTIVITY

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FACEBOOK VS REAL WORLD PROTESTSFACEBOOK VS. REAL WORLD PROTESTS

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