analyzing hybrid track configurations through design of experiments techniques

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Analyzing Hybrid Track Configurations Through Design of Experiments Techniques INFORMS 2012 Samuel L. Sogin, C. Tyler Dick, Yung-Cheng Lai, & Christopher P.L. Barkan

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Analyzing Hybrid Track Configurations Through Design of Experiments Techniques. INFORMS 2012 Samuel L. Sogin, C. Tyler Dick, Yung-Cheng Lai, & Christopher P.L. Barkan. Outline. Overview Previous Findings Design of experiments (DOE) Hybrid track capacity factors Response surface model - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Analyzing Hybrid Track Configurations Through Design of Experiments Techniques

Analyzing Hybrid Track Configurations Through Design of Experiments Techniques

INFORMS 2012Samuel L. Sogin, C. Tyler Dick,

Yung-Cheng Lai, & Christopher P.L. Barkan

Page 2: Analyzing Hybrid Track Configurations Through Design of Experiments Techniques

Outline

Overview

Previous Findings

Design of experiments (DOE)

Hybrid track capacity factors

Response surface model

Preliminary findings

Questions

Railroad Capacity Analysis – 2

Page 3: Analyzing Hybrid Track Configurations Through Design of Experiments Techniques

Capacity Upgrade Map

One track baseline

Siding extensions

Fill-in Sidings

Full Two-Mainline-Track

Incr

ease

d C

apac

ity

Incr

ease

d C

ost

Connect Sidings

Railroad Capacity Analysis – 3

Page 4: Analyzing Hybrid Track Configurations Through Design of Experiments Techniques

Siding Extension

Fill-in Sidings

Second Track

A B

A B

A B

Single Track Sequence

Single Track BaselineA B

Partial Second TrackA B

Railroad Capacity Analysis - 4

Page 5: Analyzing Hybrid Track Configurations Through Design of Experiments Techniques

5

Comparing Single Track & Double Track

Single Track Most delays are caused

by trains taking turns using the single track bottleneck sections

Very unlikely that trains will perform close to the minimum run time

Delays can follow a log-normal distribution

Speed of the passenger train is not a major factor

Double Track Most delays are caused

by overtaking trains or by crossovers movements

Likely that trains will perform close to the minimum run time

Delays can follow a exponential distribution

Speed differential between trains is a major factor by causing more overtaking situations

Page 6: Analyzing Hybrid Track Configurations Through Design of Experiments Techniques

Freight Train Delay Distributions

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1600.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

Freight Train Delay Per 100 Train Miles (min)

Cum

ulati

ve F

requ

ency

Double Track

Single Track

Railroad Capacity Analysis – 6

Freight trains interacting with 79 mph passenger trains

Page 7: Analyzing Hybrid Track Configurations Through Design of Experiments Techniques

Freight Delay Distributions

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1600.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

Freight Train Delay Per 100 Train Miles (min)

Cum

ulati

ve F

requ

ency

Double Track

Single Track

Railroad Capacity Analysis – 7

Freight trains interacting with 79 mph passenger trains

Freight trains interacting with 110 mph passenger trains

Page 8: Analyzing Hybrid Track Configurations Through Design of Experiments Techniques

Railroad Capacity Analysis - 8

DOE – More Information From Less Data

Design of Experiments (DOE): Statistical tool to systematically determine runs in a

experiment design matrix Gain more information than simply varying 1 factor

at a time Consider 3 factors at low, medium, and high levels 27 () runs are needed to cover all permutations

(Full Factorial) Could we gain knowledge of the key drivers of the

process without doing all 27 runs? (Partial Factorial – 16 runs)

Could be used to analyze more factors effecting train performance than typical 2-3 factor analyses

Page 9: Analyzing Hybrid Track Configurations Through Design of Experiments Techniques

Hybrid Track Response Surface Design

Factor Low Medium HighTotal Trains Per Day 40 48 56

% Slow Trains 0.25 0.5 0.75

% Double Track 0.325 0.528 0.730

Freight Speed (mph) 30 50 70

Passenger Speed (mph) 79 90 110

Double Track Grouping Siding ExtensionAlternateSplitGroup

Railroad Capacity Analysis - 9

50 runs to test all interactions and curvature factors

Page 10: Analyzing Hybrid Track Configurations Through Design of Experiments Techniques

Hybrid Track Configurations DOE

Railroad Capacity Analysis - 10

Full Factorial: 952 Runs JMP Partial Factorial: 50 Runs

Page 11: Analyzing Hybrid Track Configurations Through Design of Experiments Techniques

Alternate Double Track Sections (Alternate)

Double Track Progression

Railroad Capacity Analysis - 11

Extend Sidings

Build In (Split)

Build Out (Grouped)

Page 12: Analyzing Hybrid Track Configurations Through Design of Experiments Techniques

Turnout & Crossover Management

Railroad Capacity Analysis – 12

Page 13: Analyzing Hybrid Track Configurations Through Design of Experiments Techniques

Rail Traffic Controller

Developed by Eric Wilson from Berkeley Simulation

Software

Emulates a dispatcher controlling train movements across

a network based on train priority

Integrated train performance calculator

Inputs: track, signals, trains, and schedule

Output: delay, average velocity, on time performance

Page 14: Analyzing Hybrid Track Configurations Through Design of Experiments Techniques

Route Characteristics

245 miles long

10,000 ft. sidings

10 miles between siding centers

(8 miles between turnouts)

2.0 miles between signals

2-block, 3-aspect signaling

1 Origin-Destination Pair

0% grade & curvature

Railroad Capacity Analysis -14

Page 15: Analyzing Hybrid Track Configurations Through Design of Experiments Techniques

Train Characteristics

  Freight Train 1 Freight Train 2 Passenger TrainPower x3 SD70 Locomotives x5 SD70 Locomotives x2 P42 LocomotivesNo. of Cars 115 hopper cars 75 cars 7 Horizon CarsLength (ft.) 6,325 5,659 740Weight (tons) 16,445 5,900 800Max Speed (mph) 30-50 51-70 79-110

  30 milesbetween stops

Train schedules are randomized over the 24 hour period All delays are due to mainline train interactions

Railroad Capacity Analysis -15

Page 16: Analyzing Hybrid Track Configurations Through Design of Experiments Techniques

Analysis Guide

The subsequent analysis shows snapshots of the profiles from the response surface models for both freight and passenger delay

Each panel shows the change in delay for each variable

12 panels total Steeper lines indicate the trains are more sensitive to

a change in the factor level Parallel lines indicate independent effects Non-parallel lines indicate interaction effects

Railroad Capacity Analysis -16

Tyler.Dick
...freight and passenger delay
Tyler.Dick
...change in delay...
Page 17: Analyzing Hybrid Track Configurations Through Design of Experiments Techniques

Pass

enge

r D

elay

Frei

ght

Del

ayGrouping

% Double Track

Traffic Level

Freight Speed

Passenger Speed % Freight

Alternate 50% 48TPD 50 mph 110 mph 75 %

73%

Page 18: Analyzing Hybrid Track Configurations Through Design of Experiments Techniques

Pass

enge

r D

elay

Frei

ght

Del

ayGrouping

% Double Track

Traffic Level

Freight Speed

Passenger Speed % Freight

Alternate 50% 40 TPD 45 mph 110 mph 75 %

60 mph

Page 19: Analyzing Hybrid Track Configurations Through Design of Experiments Techniques

Pass

enge

r D

elay

Frei

ght

Del

ayGrouping

% Double Track

Traffic Level

Freight Speed

Passenger Speed % Freight

Extend 75% 48 TPD 45 mph 110 mph 75 %

Alternate

Page 20: Analyzing Hybrid Track Configurations Through Design of Experiments Techniques

Pass

enge

r D

elay

Frei

ght

Del

ayGrouping

% Double Track

Traffic Level

Freight Speed

Passenger Speed % Freight

Extend 75% 48 TPD 45 mph 110 mph 75 %

Split

Tyler.Dick
Extend
Page 21: Analyzing Hybrid Track Configurations Through Design of Experiments Techniques

Pass

enge

r D

elay

Frei

ght

Del

ayGrouping

% Double Track

Traffic Level

Freight Speed

Passenger Speed % Freight

Extend 75% 48 TPD 45 mph 110 mph 75 %

Group

Tyler.Dick
Extend
Page 22: Analyzing Hybrid Track Configurations Through Design of Experiments Techniques

Preliminary Findings

Major Effects Traffic Level % Double Track Freight Train Speed

Minor Effects Progression strategy Passenger Train

Speed Traffic Composition

Interesting Results By being the high priority train, the passenger trains

are less sensitive to the identified factors than freight trains

Adding double track improves train delay in a near-linear manner

Progression strategy effect is modest Priority trains can see significant delay reductions by

improving non-priority train speeds

Tyler.Dick
-Priority (passenger) trains are less sensitive to the identified factors-Adding double track improves train delay in a near-linear manner-Progression strategy effect is modest-Priority trains can see significant delay reductions by improving non-priority train speeds
Page 23: Analyzing Hybrid Track Configurations Through Design of Experiments Techniques

Future Work Refine the response surface model to incorporate only

significant terms Validate the model against data not used in fitting the

model Analyze the delay distributions to explore the transition

from Lognormal to Exponential Expand the ranges covered in the identified factors to

improve confidence limits Add resolution to the progression from single to double

track while holding some minor variables constant

Rairoad Capacity Analysis – 23 23

Soginator
-Refine the response surface model to incorporate only significant terms-Validate the model against data not used in fitting the model-Analyse the delay distributions to explore the transition from Lognormal to Exponential-Expand the ranges covered by the identified factor levels to improve the confidence limits-Add resolution to the progression from single to double track while holding some minor variables constant
Page 24: Analyzing Hybrid Track Configurations Through Design of Experiments Techniques

Questions?

Samuel L. Sogin847-899-2711

[email protected]

Railroad Capacity Analysis – 24