analyzing crises and planning for development: the example of south sudan
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Analyzing crises and planning for development: the example of South
SudanLeonora MacEwen
IIEP-UNESCOCIES
9 March 2016
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Overview
• Analytic framework of an ESA
• Developing a crisis-sensitive ESA in South Sudan: process and findings
• Next steps for the crisis-sensitive ESA in South Sudan
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Analytical framework for an ESA
ESA
Context analysis
Analysis of existing policies
Analysis of the education
system performance
Analysis of the
management capacity
Analysis of costs and financing
•Macro-economic•Demographic •Socio-cultural •Politico-institutional •Geographic and climatic
•National development plans•MDGs, EFA,
SDGs
•Access • Internal efficiency•Quality•Equity
•Teachers•Textbook
distribution•Coordination
•By level and type of education •Based on
different funding sources
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Developing a Crisis-Sensitive Education Analysis in South Sudan
Step One: Identify and map various the risks
Step Two: Analyze the potential effects of these risks on the education system Step Three: Assess the capacity of the education system to reduce and mitigate the effects of the risks and promote social cohesion
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Step One: Identify and Map the Risks
Highest risk High risk Low risk Lowest risk
• Risk index based on:• conflict affected
civilians• death, injury and
disease• food insecurity
and livelihoods• widespread
malnutrition
Source: OCHA composite risk index 2014 and 2015
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Step Two: Analyse the effects of these risks on the education system
1. Access - enrolment, school ownership, reasons for non-enrolment
2. Quality –school classroom type, school facilities, curriculum
3. Management – teacher type, PTR, textbook distribution
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EMIS coverage in Greater Upper Nile (GUPN) States, 2015
Jonglei Unity Upper Nile
Akobo Covered Abiemnhom Covered Baliet Unsafe
Ayod Covered Guit Unsafe Fashoda Unsafe
Ayod Covered Koch Unsafe Longochuck Unsafe
Bor South Covered Leer Unsafe Maban CoveredCanal No time Mayendit Unsafe Maiwut No timeDuk Covered Mayom Covered Malakal UnsafeFangak Unsafe Panyijiar No time Mayo No timeNyrol Covered Pariang Covered Melut UnsafePibor Covered Rubkona Covered Nasir UnsafePochalla Covered Panyikang UnsafeTwic East Covered Renk CoveredUror No time Ulang Unsafe
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ACCESS : GER by sector, in South Sudan, 2009 & 2015
2009 2015 Growth Rate 2009-2015
National with GUPN
GER Primary 72% 57% -21%
GER Secondary (incl Tech) 6% 7% 11%
Without GUPN
GER Primary 64% 72% 13%
GER Secondary (incl Tech) 7% 9% 32%
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ACCESS: Distribution of primary pupils, by school ownership and level of risk, 2015
Government Community Religious NGO Private Other/NK
Lowest risk 66% 13% 13% 1% 3% 4%
Low 78% 11% 6% 0% 2% 3%
High 69% 9% 10% 4% 5% 3%
Highest risk 67% 6% 12% 11% 2% 1%
National 72% 10% 9% 2% 3% 3%
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ACCESS: Reasons provided by households for non-enrolment of their children, September 2014
Help with household Lack of money Conflict School is closed Insecurity0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
1%
19% 19% 21%
77%
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MANAGEMENT : Share of volunteer teachers (%) by sector and by level of risk in Government schools, 2015
Pre-primary Primary Secondary AES0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
33% 31%
17%
34%41%
16%
44%
22%
42%
55%
64%
Lowest Low High Highest
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MANAGEMENT: Pupil-teacher ratio by sector and level of risk, 2015
Pre-primary Primary Secondary AES -
10
20
30
40
50
60
40 36
16 21
34
49
17
28
35
45
23
31
-
46
35
Lowest Low High Highest
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MANAGEMENT: Primary pupils per English textbook, by State and level of risk, 2015
Nb of pupils per
Engl textbook CEQ 2.3 EEQ 2.2 JON* 5.8 LAK 2.3 NBG 2.4 UNI* 7.1 UPN* 3.1 WAR 3.1 WBG 2.6 WEQ 2.3 South Sudan 2.7 WO GUN 2.5
Lowest risk
Low High Highest0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2 3 3
7
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Step 3: Assess the capacity of the education system to reduce the effects of the risks and
promote social cohesion
Food Secu-rity and
Livelihoods30%
Not specified14%WASH
9%
Nutrition 8%
Logistics8%
Health 8%
Multi-Sector7%
Protection 4%
Education 3%
Funding Allocation per Cluster, 2015Capacities for risk reduction
• Organizational arrangements• Resource mobilization • School management policies for safety,
resilience, and social cohesion • Infrastructure and equipment • Teacher training• Curricula
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New South Sudanese curriculum framework addresses safety and social cohesion
• Key aims – Good citizens, environmentally responsible• Values and principles – commitment to
human rights and gender equity, respect and integrity, peace and tolerance, democracy and national pride• Competencies, including co-operation
and cultural identity• Cross-cutting issues
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Next steps for the crisis-sensitive ESA in South Sudan
1. Documenting process used to develop the ESA: •Good stakeholder participation•Availability of data : EMIS, DfID, OCHA, UNHCR,
UNICEF
2. Developing the Education Sector Plan: •Programmes: access, quality, management, post-
secondary •Wider participatory process than ESA•Opportunity for innovative programming