analyst briefing half year review june‘19 · 2019-08-09 · disclaimer this briefing has been...
TRANSCRIPT
Analyst Briefing Half year review June‘19
August 07, 2019 Confidential and Proprietary Information © FrieslandCampina Engro Pakistan Limited
DisclaimerThis briefing has been prepared by FrieslandCampina Engro Pakistan Limited (“FCEPL”) solely for information purposes. No representation or warranty express or implied is made thereto, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, sufficiency, completeness or correctness of the information or any opinion contained herein or any opinion rendered thereto. The information contained in this briefing should be considered in the context of the circumstances prevailing at the time and will not be updated to reflect any developments that may occur after the date of the briefing. Neither FCEPL nor any of its respective affiliates, officials, advisors, associates, employees or any person working for, under or on behalf, shall have any responsibility and/or liability of any nature whatsoever (in contract or otherwise) for any loss whatsoever arising from any use of this briefing or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with this briefing.
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Table of content
Business highlights
Financial highlights
Business Highlights
Dairy Category offers tremendous opportunity to GROW!
Source: Tetra Milk Tree / HHP / U&A 2015
Annual Milk Consumption: 22.5 billion liters
Household penetration: 100% High usage incidence in multiple formats
96%81%
58%
31%
Avg Household Spend on Food & Beverages
40%Avg Household F&B Spend on
milk
23%
90%Loose Milk
Formalin
Caustic Soda
Detergent
Vanaspati Oil
Ammonium
Sulphate
Starch
Urea
AFLATOXIN
10%Packaged Milk
15%
PKR 40 bn Opportunity size for EFL if only 5% of loose milk users are
converted to packaged milk
Current Opportunity
Industry in Negative Growth Cycle Due to False Consumer Perceptions
Industry Volumes(Mln Liters)
981
1079
1176
1279
1420
1370
1299
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
….Engaging with industry stakeholders to promote packaged milk
..and directly influencing the Government
9
“Nourishing by Nature” Focus on purity & naturalness of Olper’s
Milk leading to happy mornings
“The Best Tea for All Occasions” Leverage new product and packaging to build taste
credentials; “Tastes so good your heart wants to dance”
Dairy SegmentStrengthening the core to drive conversion from Loose milk
Elaborate branded content built and
leveraged on digital platforms
OLPER’S PROCAL
• High-protein, high-calcium, low-fat milk for an active lifestyle
• Launched: October 2018
Dairy SegmentStrong innovations further fueling business growth
OLPER’S FULL CREAM MILK POWDER • Made with 100% dairy &
fortified with additional vitamins, calcium and protein to make children Tall & Strong
• Launched: November 2018
Dairy SegmentStrong innovations further fueling business growth
OLPER’S CREAM• 100% dairy cream made from
fresh milk for rosy glow of nourishment at every breakfast occasion
• Launched: March 2019
Dairy SegmentStrong innovations further fueling business growth
Dairy SegmentStrong innovations further fueling business growth
TARANG ELAICHIMade with just the right quantity of real cardamom flavour for perfectly balanced taste and aroma
Launched: February 2019
17.5%
18.3%
19.9%
19.3%
20.4%20.0%
21.4%
22.2%22.6%
37.0%
40.1%
40.1%40.6%
42.4%
43.1% 43.2%
42.0%
42.4%
Winning in the market
18%
30% Q4’18 Vs Q4’17
Q1’19 Vs Q1‘18
Market Share improving month on MonthReversing the negative growth cycle
Tarang510bps share gain
Olpers540bps share gain
20%
Q2’19 Vs Q2‘18
-12%
Q3’18 Vs Q3’17
16
EVER Highest on
Secondary
18.8 mn liters
(Jun’19)
24% value growth
TarangBecomes Most
Distributed STC Brand
36.7%of UHT Universe
+3% VOLUME SHARE
GAIN
20% 23.1%
DEC’18 JUN’19
H1’2019 Big Wins
2%+ Market Share Gain
Vs. Exit’18
24% volume growth 16K+ outlets increased
(Source: Tetra Dispatches 3m rolling forecast) (Source: AC Nielsen)
OMORE BUSINESS HIGHLIGHTS
+4500 in 2018
+2500 in Q1 2019
+800 in 2018
+250 in Q1 2019
Asset Investment in the business Driving Mental Availability
+3344 in Q2 2019
+423 in Q2 2019
OMORE - Innovations
Expanding the brand footprint by leveraging “novelty & variety”
2018 vs 2017
+6%
5 innovations in
20188 innovations in
2019
Revenue growth
2018 vs 2017
+2%HY1’19 vs HY1’18
+9%HY1’19 vs HY1’18
+10%
Volume growth
+24% vs. SPLY
Primary Sales Volume
+10%YTD vs. LY
Primary Sales Volume
Highest ever
EID
3.05 Mn Ltrs
+22% vs. SPLY
Highest ever
QUARTER (Q2)
9.3 Mn Ltrs
Highest ever
MONTH (JUN)
3.95 Mn Ltrs
+24% vs. SPLY
Q2 RECORD BREAKING FOR OMORE
Q2’2019 Big Wins
Positive Social Impact Made Along The Way
European Union recognition of EFL Dairy Development program
EFL Wins Commonwealth Company of the year award
3 NFEH Awards Received in 2019
Financial Highlights
24
Economic Overview
2.5 3.1 2.8
4.9
12.6
19.0
13.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Current Account Deficit ($Bln)19.4
17.6
11.4
9.3
2016 2017 2018 2019
FX Reserves ($Bln)
Reasons for entering an IMF Program:
• Increase in trade deficit and dwindling Foreign Exchange reserves
• Increasing government borrowing (Interest payments > 25% of government revenue)
• Ballooning public deficits and losses in SOEs
• Inflation increase, growth skewed toward consumption, competitive loss, low investment and job creation.
Pre-IMF Economic Conditions
A. Reducing Fiscal Deficits
B. Tightening Monetary Policy
C. Market determined Exchange rate
Pakistan entered into its 18th IMF Program – Salient Features
A. Reducing Fiscal Deficits
B. Tightening Monetary Policy
C. Market determined Exchange rate
Pakistan entered into its 18th IMF Program – Salient Features
Increase in Corporate Tax Rates
Corporate Tax fixed at 29%
Sales Tax @ 10% on Dairy portfolio (except UHT)
Elimination of tax exemptions
Stricter Tax enforcement and widening of tax base
Economic activity unrest as Trade is resisting new
compliance requirements
A. Reducing Fiscal Deficits
B. Tightening Monetary Policy
C. Market determined Exchange rate
Pakistan entered into its 18th IMF Program – Salient Features
750bps increase in Policy rate since Jan’18
6.5%
7.5%
10.0%10.8%
12.3%
13.3%
Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19
SBP Policy Rate
2x Finance cost to the Company
Distributor ROIs becoming relatively uncompetitive vs risk
free returns ➔ impeding further expansion
A. Reducing Fiscal Deficits
B. Tightening Monetary Policy
C. Market determined Exchange rate
Pakistan entered into its 18th IMF Program – Salient Features
Sharp Pak Rupee devaluation resulting in increase in cost of doing
business
Diminishing consumer purchasing power due to rising inflation
116
122 124
140 141
163 PKR/USD Exchane Rate
4.2%
5.1%
6.2%
9.4%8.9%
Inflation
Financial Highlights
8,202 8,596 8,497 8,683
10,007
5%
-1%
2%
15%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019
Revenue
Revenue (PKR in million) Growth (%age)
Financial Highlights of the Company
Revenue +15% vs Q1’19
1,617
1,277
742
1,555 1,497
20%
15%
9%
18%
15%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
-100
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019
Gross Profit
Gross Profit (PKR in million) Gross Margin (%age)
210
2
(449)
83
(322)
3% 0%
-5%
1%
-3%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
(500)
(400)
(300)
(200)
(100)
-
100
200
300
Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019
Profit After Tax
Profit After Tax (PKR in million) Profit After Tax (%age)
Gross Profit -4% vs Q1’19Profit After Tax Rs.-322mn in
Q2’19
Financial Highlights - Dairy
Revenue +1% vs Q1’19Profit After Tax Rs. -472mn in
Q2’19
6,803 7,401
8,302 8,184 8,276
9%
12%
-1% 1%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019
Revenue
Revenue (PKR in million) Growth (%age)
14
(119)
(348)
177
(472)
0%
-2%
-4%
2%
-6%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
(600)
(500)
(400)
(300)
(200)
(100)
-
100
200
300
Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019
Profit After Tax
Profit After Tax (PKR in million) Profit After Tax (%age)
Financial Highlights – Ice Cream
Revenue +248% vs
Q1’19
Profit After Tax Rs. +184mn
in Q2’19
1,399
1,195
195 498
1,732
-15%
-84%
155%
248%
-150%
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019
Revenue
Revenue (PKR in million) Growth (%age)
197
129
(149)(125)
184
14%
11%
-76%
-25%
11%
-90%
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
(200)
(150)
(100)
(50)
-
50
100
150
200
250
Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019
Profit After Tax
Profit After Tax (PKR in million) Profit After Tax (%age)
Thank you