analysis of 2016 round 1 school choice - denver public...
TRANSCRIPT
Analysis of 2016 Round 1 School Choice
June 2016
Denver Public Schools
Purpose & Table of Contents
2
Purpose
To provide a summary analysis of the result from the first round of School Choice. This includes
looking at participation rates, the number of seats offered, and the results in terms of students
matching with their preferred choices.
This document is intended to give audiences an overview of the process and helps guide district
leadership on programmatic or enrollment system decisions intended to improve family outcomes.
Table of Contents
Round 1 School Choice Participation Analysis: Slides 6 to 15
Seat Offer Analysis: Slides 16 to 22
Round 1 Choice Match Rates Analysis: Slides 23 to 39
Executive Summary
3
Participation
School Choice participation rates for Denver-resident transition students were strong:
- 88% participation for Kinder
- 87% for 6th grade
- 73% for 9th grade
Seat Offer
High quality seats are being utilized at a higher rate: 92% of the Blue/Green SPF rating seats were
filled versus 61% of the Yellow/Orange/Red seats
However, we still do not have enough high quality seats as 66% of participants selected a school with
a Blue or Green SPF rating as their first choice, while only 60% of the seats available met that criteria
Seat offer is more limited in regions like the Far Northeast. A more limited seat offer increases the
expected seat utilization, including utilization of lower quality seats (Yellow/Orange/Red)
Match Rates
The rates at which students were enrolled in their first choice of schools were up:
- 86% of kindergarteners were placed in their first-choice school (+3%)
- 80% of sixth-graders received their first choice (+7%)
- 87% of ninth-graders were enrolled their first choice (+9%)
There are two drivers of a high first choice placement rate: 1) larger offer of quality seats and 2) seat
demand diversification across different schools.
Definitions
Participant:= A participant is a student who submitted a choice form. An “Enrollment Zone Participant”
is a zone resident who selected at least one school choice within his enrollment zone.
Transition student/applicant:= A transition student is a student that does not rolls automatically to the
next grade in current or another school. Most commonly they are applying to Kinder, 6th, and 9th grade.
(ECE-4 applicants usually do not automatically from ECE-3, but they are not K-12). A transition
participant is a student/applicant that is both in transition and submitted a choice form.
Participation rate:= It is calculated by dividing the number of participants in transition, by the number of
transition participants plus the number of transition students within our line of sight who did not
participate. Transition students are usually applying to Kinder, 6th or 9th grade.
– Identifying kindergarten non-participants is challenging because DPS only has line of sight to
students who are currently enrolled in an ECE program in DPS to serve as the denominator for this
calculation. In contrast, 6th and 9th grade rates are easier due to students being in DPS already
for 5th and 8th grade.
Match rate:= Percentage of applicants (usually referring to transition students) that got their X preferred
choice. 1st choice match rate is the percentage that got their 1st choice., 1st and 2nd choice match rate is
the percentage that got their 1st or 2nd choice, etc.
Within-zone 1st choice placement rate:= The percentage of times, an enrollment zone student (usually
referring to transition students) got his/her first choice, when this choice was with-in the zone.
4
Overview of analysis
5
Participation Offer Match
First we analyze
the demand of
choice
1
Then, we
analyze the seat
supply
2
Finally, we analyze
how are we serving
our students’
choices
3
Overview of analysis
6
Participation Offer Match
First we analyze
the demand of
choice
1
Then, we
analyze the seat
supply
2
Finally, we analyze
how are we serving
our students’
choices
3
Kinder, 6th and 9th grades are the “traditional” transition grades that students
apply to, but there are exceptions…
7
Current
Grade
Applying to
GradeWho is a transition
student?Exceptions
EC-3 EC-4 Most of studentsEC-3 that roll automatically to EC-4. E.g., Valdez, Ana Maria Sandoval,
Denison, Gilpin, Hallet, Lincoln Elementary, Rocky Mountain Prep Creekside
EC-4 Kinder Most of studentsEC-4 that roll automatically to Kinder. E.g., the above, Academy 360, Highline
Academy, Rocky Mountain Prep Southwest, REACH.
Kinder 1st Almost none Some ADK Programs. E.g., Knight, Edison, Gust, Palmer, Stedman.
1st 2nd None
2nd 3rd None
3rd 4th None
4th 5th None
5th 6th Most of students
K-8/K-12 programs that roll automatically such as Denver Language School,
Wyatt, Omar Blair, Grant Ranch, Cesar Chavez Academy, etc.; EC-6
Montessori schools such as Denison and Gilpin; 5-8 KIPP schools like KIPP
Sunshine Peak Academy and KIPP Montbello College Prep; elementary
schools rolling automatically to a middle school like DCIS at Ford.
6th 7th Almost noneEC-6 Montessori schools such as Denison, Gilpin, Maria Sandoval, Lincoln
Elementary
7th 8th None A closing school such as Pioneer Chapter in 2016-17
8th 9th Most of students*Middle schools rolling automatically to a high school. E.g., DSST middle
schools, West Leadership MS, Strive Prep – Lake, etc. K-12 programs like
Escuela Tlatelolco and RMSEL
9th 10th None
10th 11th Almost none A 8th-10th grade program like ACE Community School
11th 12th None
12th N/A None
Participation Offer Match
*About 84% of 5th graders and 65% of 8th graders in October 2015
22,419 23,066 22,729
24,98822,958
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
Total Number of Round 1 Participants by Year
8
There was a decline in participation by 8% (2,030 students) compared to last year
Decline in participation driven by two facts:
– Fewer students *had* to participate given simplified rules (all current students can remain, rolling rules)
– Fewer kids trying to trade up from non-transition grades
Key Observations
Participation Offer Match
The number of non-transition grade level students that participated in choice
dropped 23% (1,232 students)
9
GradeParticipants
2015-16
Participants
2016-17
Year Over
Year Change% Change
EC 4,443 4,281 -162 -4%
Kinder 5,392 5,440 48 1%
1st 1,144 757 -387 -34%
2nd 695 490 -205 -29%
3rd 677 486 -191 -28%
4th 579 388 -191 -33%
5th 569 459 -110 -19%
6th 5,365 5,560 195 4%
7th 684 532 -152 -22%
8th 574 383 -191 -33%
9th 3,957 3,562 -395 -10%
10th 484 333 -151 -31%
11th 292 192 -100 -34%
12th 133 95 -38 -29%
Total 24,988 22,958 -2,030 -8%
The Number of 2016-17 Participants Compared to 2015-16
The number of non-transition grade level students
submitting choice dropped back 23% (1,232 students)
towards prior levels, possibly due to increased
satisfaction and reduced confusion.
Online “unnecessary applicants” were automatically
screened out (students who do not need to apply
because they are already enrolled in or
automatically roll to their first choice program). This
reduced unnecessary applications from 2,998 to
2,917 (3% reduction).
There was a 10% reduction in the participants for 9th
grade because additional middle school programs
automatically rolled into high school programs,
decreasing the number of students who *had* to
participate in choice.
1
1
1
2
2
1
3
3
Participation Offer Match
We had fewer participants for 9th grade as roll rules are being simplified
Fewer 8th grade students *had* to apply as new roll rules were put in place:
This mirrors what we already do in many district-run schools (e.g., Denver School of the Arts MS,
Denver Center for International Studies MS)
Further opportunities exist to simplify roll rules:
– Martin Luther King Jr. Early College MS 8th grade 162* students rolling to Martin Luther King Jr.
Early College HS
– Bruce Randolph School MS 8th grade 137* students rolling to Bruce Randolph School HS
– 5th grade students in K-8 schools roll automatically, unless they have fewer middle school seats
10
*Number of students provided here are based on October Count 2015 for 8th graders at the current school
8th Grade Students From: Roll to 9th Grade at:Number of Affected
Students*
KIPP Montbello College Prep KIPP Montbello Collegiate HS 114
KIPP Sunshine Peak Academy KIPP Denver Collegiate HS 95
Strive Prep Lake and Sunnyside Strive Prep Excel 232
DSST Byers DSST Byers HS 150
Total: 591
Participation Offer Match
The overall 2016-17 participation of transition students for Kinder, 6th and 9th
grades was 84% vs. 81% in 2015-16
11
81%86%
75%81%
88% 87%
73%84%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Kinder 6th 9th Kinder, 6th and 9th
Choice Participation Rates for Transition Students by Transition Grade
2015-16 2016-17
Identifying kindergarten non-participants is challenging because DPS only has line of sight to students who are currently
enrolled in an ECE program in DPS.
Lower participation for 9th grade reflects the facts that there are only two high school enrollment zones and fewer choices
(as High School programs are larger).
Key Observations
Participation Offer Match
The overall participation for middle school enrollment zones was 92% vs.
74% for the boundary schools*
12
Far Northeast MS
EZ: 94%
Greater Park Hill
Stapleton MS EZ:
96%
Near
North
East
MS EZ:
93%
West
MS EZ:
92%
Northwe
st MS
EZ: 90%
Southwest
MS EZ:
87%
Lake
MS EZ:
86%
Near North East and Northwest middle school enrollment zones were implemented this year.
Participation in enrollment zones is higher as students and families do not have one boundary school with a guaranteed seat
but rather a guaranteed seat among a group of schools.
Key Observations
Morey:
88%
Grant:
87%
Merril:
81%
Hill: 75%
Hamilton:
51%
Enrollment Zone
Boundary School
Enrollment Zone
Implemented 2016-17
*Place, Grant Ranch and Denver Green School are K-8 schools, where 5th graders roll to 6th without
applying. Only students that want to leave the school apply. Therefore, the rates are not considered here
Participation Offer Match
Progress has been done reducing the number of non-participants for Kinder
13
1,111 Kinder Non-Participants in 2015-16
This only captures Kinder non-participants who are known to DPS because they attended or applied for an EC program.
– In October 2015, there were 7,126 Kinder students at DPS, and 1,646 (23%) were not known to DPS during Choice
Round 1 2015-16
The Southwest continues to be an area of opportunity, but progress has been made.
Key Observations
663 Kinder Non-Participants in 2016-17
*Non-participants are transition students that did not summited a choice form
Participation Offer Match
The new middle school enrollment zones have helped reducing the number of
non-participants for 6th grade
14
760 6th Grade Non-Participants in 2015-16
The implementation of the new Northwest and Near North East middle school enrollment zones increased the
participation of the region. The Southwest region also saw improvements.
Opportunities persist in the Southeast region. However, for families living in the Hampden neighborhood options are very
limited due to only Hamilton MS in the area.
Key Observations
730 6th Grade Non-
Participants and
Enrollment Zones
Implemented in 2016-17
*Non-participants are transition students that did not summited a choice form
Nort-
west
MS EZ
NNE
MS EZ
Participation Offer Match
The number of non-participants for 9th grade is affected by the number of
choices students have
15
1,104 9th Grade Non-Participants in 2015-16
Progress was done in the Northwest region; however, there is only one large high school in the are (North)
There are still opportunities in the Southwest region; nevertheless, the majority of non-participants reside in the A.
Lincoln boundary.
Key Observations
1,091 9th Grade Non-
Participants in 2016-17
*Non-participants are transition students that did not summited a choice form
Participation Offer Match
Overview of analysis
16
Participation Offer Match
First we analyze
the demand of
choice
1
Then, we
analyze the seat
supply
2
Finally, we analyze
how are we serving
our students’
choices
3
92% of the Blue/Green seats were filled versus 61% of the Yellow/Orange/Red
seats
17
If we didn’t’ have choice, all different SPF seats would be 80% full (the overall utilization). However, blue seats are utilized
at a 99% and green seats at a 89%.
– Choice has let us move 1,300 students into green and blue seats.
Key Observations
*Schools that opened in 2014-15 or later do not have a SPF
**Seat filled by ANY student
3,123
7,530
3,1793,494
1,468 1,500
3,114
6,684
2,418 2,592
651 726
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Distinguished MeetsExpectations
No Rating* Accredited OnWatch
Accredited OnPriority Watch
Accredited OnProbation
2016-17 Seat Offer for Transition Students in Grades Kinder, 6th and 9th vs. Number of Filled Seats**
Seat Offer for Transition Students in GradesKinder, 6th and 9thNumber of Filled Seats**
99% Utilization
89% Utilization
76% Utilization
74% Utilization
44% Utilization
48% Utilization
Seat offer:
20,294
Filled seats:
16,185
80% Utilization
Participation Offer Match
Overall
There is a positive relationship between a higher SPF and the utilization of the
seat offer
18
The relationship between a the SPF color mid-point and the utilization of the seat offer is shown by the dotted line: the
higher the SPF, the higher the expected utilization of the seat offer.
Key Observations
Participation Offer Match
Distinguished (80-100%)Meets Expectations (51-79%)
Accredited on Watch (40-50%)
Accredited on Priority Watch (34-39%)
Accredited on Probation (up to 33%)
R² = 0.8419
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Tra
nsit
ion
Seat
Off
er
uti
lizati
on
SPF 2014 Points %
Utilization of Transition Seat Offers vs. SPF Mid Point %
R² = 0.4386
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Tra
ns
itio
n S
ea
t O
ffe
r U
tili
za
tio
n
SPF 2014 Points %
Utilization of Transition Seat Offers vs. School SPF* Points % 2014
Once we analyze this relationship at the school program level, deviations can
occur …
19
The dashed black line in the graph represents the “expected” utilization at a given SPF level (points %):
– Above the line we observe higher utilization than expected, and below the line lower utilization than expected.
Key Observations
*Schools that opened in 2014-15 or later do not have a SPF
Participation Offer Match
Higher
utilization,
lower SPFLower
utilization,
higher
SPF
Noel Community Arts School MS
Martin Luther King Jr. Early College MS
STRIVE Prep - Montbello
Florida Pitt-Waller ECE-8 School
DSST: Green Valley Ranch MS
STRIVE Prep - GVR
R² = 0.5529
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Tra
ns
itio
n S
ea
t O
ffe
r u
tili
za
tio
n
SPF 2014 Points %
Utilization of Transition Seat Offers vs. School SPF* Points % 2014: FNE MS
In the case of FNE Middle Schools, the utilization is higher than expected …
20
When offer is more constrained, as in the case of the middle schools in the Far Northeast (FNE) region, the expected
utilization line shifts up, i.e., higher utilization a given SPF level
The gap between the original All District line and the FNE MS line is a little more pronounced in lower SPF levels, with an
utilization about 8% higher than expected for a bad performing school.
Key Observations
*Schools that opened in 2014-15 or later do not have a SPF
Participation Offer Match
Shifted up
utilization in
about 8%
FNE MS
All district
In the case of SE Elementary Schools, some schools have less utilization than
expected …
21
The All District and Southeast (SE) expected utilization lines are closer in this case. McKinley-Thatcher and McMeen have
considerable lower utilization than expected as the offer of good seat is greater in the region.
Key Observations
*Schools that opened in 2014-15 or later do not have a SPF
Participation Offer Match
McKinley-ThatcherPlace Bridge Academy
Ellis
Denver Green School
McMeen
Samuels
Holm
Rocky Mountain Prep …Lowry
Southmoor Stephen Knight
C3
Steele
Bromwell
University Park
Carson
Highline Academy Southeast
Bradley International School
Lincoln
Asbury
Slavens K-8 School
Steck
R² = 0.3094
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Tra
ns
itio
n S
ea
t O
ffe
r u
tili
za
tio
n
SPF 2014 Points %
Utilization of Transition Seat Offers vs. School SPF* Points % 2014: SE ES
SE ES
All district
Lower
utilization than
expected
4% 4%3% 4%
13% 16%
14%15%
38%41%
28%19%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
% 1st Choice % of Seat OffersDistinguished Meets Expectations No Rating
Accredited On Watch Accredited On Priority Watch Accredited On Probation
However, we still do not have enough high quality seats…
22
*Schools that opened in 2014-15 or later do not have a SPF
** 1st Choice distribution ONLY for transition participants
1
2
66% of participants selected a school with a
blue or green SPF rating as their first choice
while only 60% of the seats available met
that criteria
1
2
About 14% of families are taking a chance
and selecting schools that do not have an
SPF rating*, with the hope that when these
schools are rated, they will be high
performing
Participation Offer Match
Overview of analysis
23
Participation Offer Match
First we analyze
the demand of
choice
1
Then, we
analyze the seat
supply
2
Finally, we analyze
how are we serving
our students’
choices
3
83%
73%
78% 78%
86%
80%
87%
84%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
Kinder 6th 9th Kinder, 6th and 9th
2016-17 vs 2015-16 First Choice Match Rate for Participant Transition Students (for Kinder, 6th and 9th grades)
2015-16 2016-17
84% of participant Denver students in transition received their top choice
school in transition grades K, 6th, and 9th
A higher percentages of transition participants were assigned their top choice than last year in Kinder, 6th and 9th grades.
– Additional supply of new schools with track records (Bear Valley, Strive Kepner, Kepner Beacon, DSST Henry,
McAuliffe @ Manual).
– DPS better assigning additional students in Round 1 instead of calling off the waitlist over the summer due to
analyses of matriculation.
24
Key Observations
Participation Offer Match
93% of participant Denver students in transition received their first or
second choice in transition grades K, 6th, and 9th
We include match rates for choices 1 to 5 (each participant can make up to 5 choices).
25
2016-17 Round 1 Results by Preference Selection for Transition
Participants, by Transition Grade
Grade1st
Choice
1st or 2nd
Choice
1st -3rd
Choice
1st -4th
Choice
1st -5th
Choice
Kinder 86% 93% 96% 97% 98%
6th 80% 91% 95% 96% 97%
9th 87% 95% 97% 98% 98%
Total 84% 93% 96% 97% 97%
Participation Offer Match
*See the Appendix for the corresponding rates in 2015-16
While 84% of transition participants for Kinder, 6th and 9th grades were assigned the their first choice, 93% of
participants were assigned to their first OR second choice. Only 3% did not get any of their 5 choices (and were
defaulted to their boundary school or enrollment zone).
For 9th grade, 87% of transition participants got their first choice and 95% got their first or second choices. Only
2% of 9th graders did not get any of their 5 choices.
1
1
2
2
3
3
For students in enrollment zones, we could measure a match rate with their
preferred school choices WITHIN THEIR ZONE…
26
The universe (denominator) would be a enrollment zone resident who chose a zone school for any
choice, i.e., enrollment zone participants
They could be assigned to schools outside their enrollment zone ONLY if it was a better choice to other
school in their zone
– First zone choice or better:= students who got into the best choice that was a zone school *or*
something they preferred.
Example: Joey lives in Stapleton and he made the following choices (in zone choice in blue)
– Choice 1: DSA
– Choice 2: McAuliffe Best in-zone choice
– Choice 3: DCIS
– Choice 4: Bill Roberts Second best in-zone choice
– Choice 5: Skinner
OUTCOME #1: If he gets into DSA or McAuliffe,
we would say he got into his first zone choice
or better.
OUTCOME #2: If he gets into DCIS or
Roberts, we say he got into his second zone
choice or better.
OUTCOME #3: If he gets into Skinner, we say he got into something better than his
third zone choice (because presumable, he liked Skinner better than any other school
in his zone, and his third zone choice would have come after Skinner)
OUTCOME #4: If he gets defaulted to the zone, we say he didn’t get any of his choices.
Participation Offer Match
85% of enrollment zone participant students in transition were placed in
their top school in the zone (or better) for Kinder
Far Southeast enrollment zone had a perfect in-zone first choice match, meaning that everyone got their top choice
within the enrollment zone (or better out of the zone).
27
2016-17 Round 1 Results by In-Zone (Or Better) Preference
Selection for Transition Enrollment Zone Participants, Kinder
Enrollment Zone1st
Choice
1st or 2nd
Choice
1st -3rd
Choice
1st -4th
Choice
1st -5th
Choice
Far Southeast 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Stapleton
Elementary79% 92% 97% 99% 99%
Elementary
Enrollment Zones85% 94% 98% 99% 99%
Participation Offer Match
1
79% of the students in the Stapleton Elementary enrollment zone were assigned to their top choice within
the zone (or better out of the zone), and 92% got their first or second top in-zone choices.
1
2
2
88% of enrollment zone participant students in transition were placed in
their top school in the zone (or better) for 6th grade
All the middle school enrollment zones, with the exception of Far Northeast and West, got a perfect (or almost
perfect ) first choice match within the zone (or better out of the zone).
28
2016-17 Round 1 Results by In-Zone (Or Better) Preference
Selection for Transition Enrollment Zone Participants, 6th Grade
Enrollment Zone1st
Choice
1st or 2nd
Choice
1st -3rd
Choice
1st -4th
Choice
1st -5th
Choice
Far Northeast MS 73% 88% 94% 96% 97%
Greater Park Hill
Stapleton MS100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Lake MS 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Near North East MS 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Northwest 99% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Southwest MS 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
West MS 81% 95% 97% 98% 98%
MS Enrollment Zones 88% 96% 98% 98% 99%
Participation Offer Match
1
However, whereas 95% of the participants in the West MS enrollment zone got their first or second
choices within the zone, only 88% did in the Far Northeast MS zone.
1
2
2
2
73% of enrollment zone participant students in transition were placed in
their top school in the zone (or better) for 9th grade
29
2016-17 Round 1 Results by In-Zone (Or Better) Preference
Selection for Transition Enrollment Zone Participants, 9th Grade
Enrollment Zone1st
Choice
1st or 2nd
Choice
1st -3rd
Choice
1st -4th
Choice
1st -5th
Choice
Far Northeast HS 71% 90% 97% 98% 98%
West HS 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
HS Enrollment
Zones73% 91% 97% 98% 98%
Participation Offer Match
West HS enrollment zone had a perfect in-zone first choice match, meaning that everyone got their top choice within
their enrollment zone (or better out of the zone).
71% of the students in Far Northeast HS enrollment zone were assigned to their top choice within the zone
(or better out of the zone), and 90% got their first or second top in-zone choices.1
2
1
2
The ratio of seat offers to applicants and the diversification of school
program demand affect 1st choice placement rates
30
Participation Offer Match
First Choice Placement Rate
Ratio of seat
offers to
applicants
High quality
seats across
diverse
programs
The ratio of seat offers to applicants refers to how large is the offer. However, if the demand is concentrated in few seats,
a large aggregate offer may not be enough for everyone getting their top choice.
The perception of high quality across diverse programs helps to spread the demand.
Students who select their boundary school as first choice are always accepted (i.e., placed in their first choice). However,
students living in a enrollment zone may not be accepted to their first choice with-in their zone.
– Within-zone 1st choice placement rate:= The percentage of times, an enrollment zone student (usually referring to
transition students) got his/her first choice, when this choice was with-in the zone.
Key Observations
These are examples of how the ratio of seat offers to applicants and the
spread of demand affect 1st choice placement rates
31
Participation Offer Match
Plenty of seats and demand is
spread across many programs:
Best match
Diverse demand
Ratio o
f seats
Just enough seats and demand is
spread across many programs:
Good match
Just enough seats and demand
is concentrated in one or few
programs:
Poor match
Plenty of seats but demand is
concentrated in one or few
programs:
Good match
Ex. NW MS Ex. NNE MS
Ex. SW MSEx. FNE MS
+
+
-
-
In the Northwest MS Enrollment Zone, demand is concentrated in one
program, but they had a Within-Zone 1st Choice Placement Rate of 98%*
32
Participation Offer Match
From the 264 transition 6th grade participants residing in the Northwest MS zone, 135 (51% of
Northwest 6th grade participants and 74% of those choosing their 1st choice within the zone) chose
Skinner, whereas 44 chose Strive Prep – Sunnyside (17% and 24%, respectively).
However, everyone who applied to Skinner was accepted, since their seat offer is very large.
Within-Zone 1st Choice Placement Rate of 98%*.
Plenty of seats and demand is
spread across many programs:
Best match
Diverse demand
Ra
tio
of se
ats
Just enough seats and demand
is spread across many
programs:
Good match
Just enough seats and
demand is concentrated in
one or few programs:
Poor match
Plenty of seats but demand is
concentrated in one or few
programs:
Good match
Ex. NW MS Ex. NNE MS
Ex. SW MSEx. FNE MS
Higher ratio of
seats
Lower demand
diversity
Key Observations
+
+-
-
*Three students could not get into Bryant Webster (K-8), where 5th grade students roll to 6th grade.
Result
29% of transition 6th grade participants residing in Far Northeast MS zone
did not get their first choice even if it was within the zone
33
Participation Offer Match
From the 986 transition 6th grade participants residing in the Far Northeast MS zone, 801 (81%) chose a
program in the zone as their first choice. There are 10 different MS programs in the zone, the most
popular being DSST GVR with 291 zone students choosing it as their top choice or 36% of first choices
within the zone, followed by Strive Prep GVR (92 students and 11%, respectively).
However, the capacity at popular schools was not enough: in DSST GVR 168 FNE students that selected
the school as their first choice were waitlisted and 26 in Strive Prep GVR. Other programs in this group
are KIPP (21 first choice in-zone students waitlisted), Greenwood (14), Omar Blair (2), and DCIS (1).
Within-Zone 1st Choice Placement Rate of 71%.
Plenty of seats and demand is
spread across many programs:
Best match
Diverse demand
Ra
tio
of se
ats
Just enough seats and demand
is spread across many
programs:
Good match
Just enough seats and
demand is concentrated in
one or few programs:
Poor match
Plenty of seats but demand is
concentrated in one or few
programs:
Good match
Ex. NW MS Ex. NNE MS
Ex. SW MSEx. FNE MS
Lower ratio of
seats
Lower demand
diversity
Key Observations
+
+-
-
Result
All transition 6th grade participant residing in Near North East MS zone got
her/his first choice if within the zone
34
Participation Offer Match
From the 375 transition 6th grade participants residing in the Near North East MS zone, 261 (70%)
chose a program in the zone as their first choice. 94 of these students (36% of first choices within the
zone) selected Bruce Randolph, 93 (36%) selected DSST: Cole, and 69 selected McAuliffe at Manual
(26%). 5 students selected Whittier, which is a K-8 that rolls to MS.
Every transition 6th grade participant residing in the zone got hers/his first choice if it was within the
zone. Popular top-choice programs outside the zone include STRIVE Prep - Sunnyside (22 students),
DSST: Stapleton (14), and Moore (10).
Within-Zone 1st Choice Placement Rate of 100%.
Plenty of seats and demand is
spread across many programs:
Best match
Diverse demand
Ra
tio
of se
ats
Just enough seats and demand
is spread across many
programs:
Good match
Just enough seats and
demand is concentrated in
one or few programs:
Poor match
Plenty of seats but demand is
concentrated in one or few
programs:
Good match
Ex. NW MS Ex. NNE MS
Ex. SW MSEx. FNE MS
Higher ratio of
seats
Higher demand
diversity
Key Observations
+
+-
-
Result
All the transition 6th grade participants residing in the Southwest MS zone
choosing a program in the zone as their first choice were successfully placed
35
Participation Offer Match
From the 399 transition 6th grade participants residing in the Southwest MS zone, only 174 (44%) chose a
program in the zone as their first choice. The most popular being Bear Valley (102 students, 59% first
choice in zone), followed by DSST: Henry (50, 29%), and STRIVE Prep – Federal (22, 13%). Also popular
is Kunsmiller (51 students).
All the Southwest MS zone students choosing one of the programs above as their first choice were placed
successfully. Popular top-choice programs outside the zone include: DSST: College View (115 students),
Grant Ranch (13), and STRIVE Prep – Westwood (10).
Within-Zone 1st Choice Placement Rate of 100%.
Plenty of seats and demand is
spread across many programs:
Best match
Diverse demand
Ra
tio
of se
ats
Just enough seats and demand
is spread across many
programs:
Good match
Plenty of seats but demand is
concentrated in one or few
programs:
Good match
Ex. NW MS Ex. NNE MS
Ex. SW MS
Lower ratio of
seats
Higher demand
diversity
Key Observations
+
+-
-
Just enough seats and
demand is concentrated in
one or few programs:
Poor match
Ex. FNE MS
Result
In aggregate, there are enough seats for the transition applicants for EC,
Kinder, 6th and 9th grades
A ratio of seats to applicants greater than 1.0 means that there are more seats available than there are students. Note
that in all grades DPS has adequate aggregate capacity to meet enrollment needs.
36
Key Observations
*Includes non-participant transition students
4,805
7,961
6,4215,912
3,987
5,467 5,700
3,953
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
EC Kinder 6th 9th
2016-17 Transition Seat Offer vs. Number of Denver Applicants* in EC and Transition Grades Kinder, 6th and 9th
Seat Offers Denver Transition Applicants
1.2 seats
for every
transition
applicant*
1.4 seats
for every
transition
applicant*
1.1 seats
for every
transition
applicant*
1.4 seats
for every
transition
applicant*
Ratio of seats Participation Offer Match
Transition seat offers and zone applicants ratio, and Within-Zone 1st Choice
Placement Rate vary across enrollment zones for transition 6th grade students
West MS EZ has a ratio closer to 1; however, 133 zone students making 1st choice to: DSST College View MS (9), KIPP
Sunshine Peak MS (50, school starts at 5th grade), and STRIVE Prep – Westwood (74) were waitlisted
37
Far Northeast MS EZ: 0.82
/ 71% placement
Greater Park Hill
Stapleton MS EZ: 1.36
/100% placement
Near North
East MS EZ:
1.10 / 100%
placement
West MS EZ: 0.92 /
77% placement
Northwest
MS EZ: 1.19
/ 98%
placement
Southwest MS
EZ: 1.00 /
100%
placement
Lake MS
EZ: 0.75 /
100%
placement
Name of EZ: Seats to
Zone Transition
Applicants Ratio /
Within-zone 1st Choice
Placements Rate
Ratio of seats Participation Offer Match
*See the Appendix for the corresponding maps for elementary and high school enrollment zones
1
2
3
Lake MS EZ has a low ratio; however, more than half of the zone transition 6th grade students applied to a first choice out of
the zone (most commonly to Skinner, DCIS, GALS, West Generation and West Leadership Academy).
Far Northeast has a low seats/applicants ratio and 29% of the zone transition 6th grade students that applied to their 1st
choice in the zone, did not get it.
1
2
3
We could answer the question: What percentage of first choices (of a given grade level) is concentrated in
the most demanded X programs?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Cu
mu
lati
ve
% o
f F
irs
t C
ho
ice
s
Number of School Programs
Cumulative Percentage of First Choice Selections vs. Number of Programs (From Highest to Lowest Demand) – 9th Grade
We could measure if the demand of seats has diversified by analyzing the
concentration of top choices
38
44%
5
In the graph above, 44% of participants applying to 9th grade had their first choice concentrated in just 5 programs
during 2016-17 Choice Round 1.
Key Observations
Diverse Demand Participation Offer Match
Top school program choices for 6th and 9th grades applicants have diversified
39
Diversification of choices improves match rates, as fewer students are “competing” for the same seats.
Note that the match rate is also affected by the ratio between the seat offer and number of applicants.
Key Observations
Half of the 1st choices were
concentrated in the top 14 programs
(out of 58**) in 2016-17 vs. in the top
12 programs in 2015-17.
6th Grade
Half of the 1st choices were
concentrated in the top 6 programs
(out of 36**) in 2016-17 vs. in the top 5
programs in 2015-17.
9th Grade
1stC
ho
ice
Ma
tch
Ra
teD
ive
rsif
ica
tio
n o
f
Ch
oic
e
*Showing difference in percent points between Choice 2016-17 and 2015-16
**Programs with a least one first choice
First choice
match rate was
up +7%*
Diverse Demand Participation Offer Match
First choice
match rate was
up +9%*
Appendix
40
Families are choosing higher performing schools
The proportion of applicants selecting a blue/green/unrated school increased to 80% in 2015 versus 76% in 2014.
Very few families list a low performing school #1, though families are assigned to those schools because of lack of
capacity in higher-performing schools.
41
29%
29%
28%
41%
38%
38%
3%
10%
14%
18%
15%
13%
4%
3%
3%
5%
5%
4%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
1st Choice of Transition Participants in Kinder, 6th and 9th grades, by SPF Rating
Distinguished Meets No Rating Accredited on Watch Accredited on Priority Watch Accredited on Probation
Key Observations
89% of participant Denver students in transition received their first or
second choice in transition grades K, 6th, and 9th in 2015-16
We include match rates for choices 1 to 5 (each participant can make up to 5 choices).
While 78% of transition participants for Kinder, 6th and 9th grades were assigned the their first choice, 89% of
participants were assigned to their first OR second choice. 5% did not get any of their 5 choices (and were defaulted to
their boundary school or enrollment zone).
42
2015-16 Round 1 Results by Preference Selection for Transition
Participants, by Transition Grade
Key Observations
Grade1st
Choice
1st or 2nd
Choice
1st -3rd
Choice
1st -4th
Choice
1st -5th
Choice
Kinder 83% 91% 94% 95% 96%
6th 73% 86% 91% 93% 94%
9th 78% 91% 94% 96% 96%
Total 78% 89% 93% 94% 95%
The ratio of seat offer to applicants* varies by region
In aggregate, there are enough seats to meet district needs but when location is considered constraints are identified,
particularly in the Far Northeast
ECE seats tend to be more dispersed along the west side of the city.
43
ECE: 1.6
Kinder: 1.7
6th: 1.6
9tth: 1.2
ECE: 1.1
Kinder: 1.5
6th: 1.5
9th: 2.2
ECE: 1.1 Kinder 1.5
6th : 0.8 9th: 0.9
ECE: 0.9
Kinder: 1.2
6th: 0.9
9th: 1.4
ECE: 1.4
Kinder: 1.5
6th: 1.0
9th: 1.7
NorthwestNear Northeast
Far Northeast
SoutheastSouthwest
Key Observations
*Includes non-participant transition students
Ratio of Seats: Denver Applicants (ECE and in Transition Grade) by Region
How does transition seat offers and zone applicants ratio relate to Within-
Zone 1st Choice Placement Rate, for transition Kinder students?
Stapleton Elementary EZ has a ratio of seats/applicants of about 1; however, more than half of the 1st choices are
concentrated in Swigert (33%) and William Roberts (23%)
44
Stapleton
Elementary
EZ:1.0 / 80%
placement
Far Southeast
Elementary:
0.72 / 100%
placement
Name of EZ: Seats to
Zone Transition
Applicants Ratio /
Within-zone 1st Choice
Placements Rate
1
2
Southeast Elementary EZ has a low seats ratio; however, about 40% of the zone transition Kinder students applied to a
first choice out of the zone (most commonly to Bradley, Southmoor, and Highline).
1
2
How does transition seat offers and zone applicants ratio relate to Within-
Zone 1st Choice Placement Rate, for transition 9th grade students?
Far Northeast HS EZ has a ratio of seats/applicants just below 1. In addition, more than 50% applied as 1st choice to DSST:
GVR HS or Strive Prep – Rise HS
45
Far Northeast HS
EZ:0.9 / 65%
placement
West HS EZ:
0.48 / 100%
placement
Name of EZ: Seats to
Zone Transition
Applicants Ratio /
Within-zone 1st Choice
Placements Rate
1
2
West HS EZ has a low ratio; however, almost all zone transition 9th grade students had their 1st choice out of the zone (as
these students already opted out from West Leadership Academy MS and West Generations Academy MS, whose 8 th grade
students roll to the high schools)
1
2
Highest Demand Schools: Kindergarten
46
School NameSPF
Rating
Number of students
who listed each school
as their 1st preference
2016-17
Rank
2015-14
Rank
2014-13
Rank
Swigert International School 188 1 1 2
William (Bill) Roberts K-8 School 158 2 3 10
Escalante-Biggs Academy 143 3 2 1
Denver Language School 107 4 13 4
Odyssey School of Denver 105 5 17 26
Highline Academy Northeast 103 6 5 80
Isabella Bird Community School 98 7 6 21
High Tech Elementary School 97 8 29 76
Park Hill School 95 9 27 23
Stephen Knight Center for Early Education 94 10 4 6
Brown International Academy 94 10 10 7
Top 10 Requested Programs for 2015-2016:
School NameSPF
Rating
Non-boundary
students who listed
each school as their
1st preference and got
waitlisted
Non-boundary
students who listed
each school as their
1st preference and got
accepted
% Accepted
Highline Academy Northeast 31 72 70%
Polaris at Ebert Elementary School 30 20 40%
Denison Montessori School 30 55 65%
Downtown Denver Expeditionary School 26 42 62%
Stephen Knight Center for Early Education 24 67 74%
Carson Elementary School 24 2 8%
Academia Ana Maria Sandoval 22 46 68%
High Tech Elementary School 21 1 5%
Brown International Academy 20 18 47%
Southmoor Elementary School 20 0 0%
Kinder programs with most non-boundary students waitlisted, who listed the school as their 1st preference:
Highest Demand Schools: 6th Grade
47
Top 10 Requested Programs for 2015-2016:
School NameSPF
Rating
Number of students
who listed each school
as their 1st preference
2016-17
Rank
2015-14
Rank
2014-13
Rank
McAuliffe at Smiley 401 1 1 1
DSST: Green Valley Ranch MS 351 2 2 2
DSST: College View Middle School 245 3 6 7
Denver School of the Arts MS 203 4 5 4
DSST: Byers Middle School 199 5 7 11
Skinner Middle School 198 6 9 8
STRIVE Prep - Westwood 191 7 3 5
DSST: Stapleton Middle School 191 7 4 3
Kunsmiller Creative Arts MS 160 9 12 10
Hamilton Middle School 155 10 8 6
School NameSPF
Rating
Non-boundary
students who listed
each school as their
1st preference and got
waitlisted
Non-boundary
students who listed
each school as their
1st preference and got
accepted
% Accepted
DSST: College View Middle School 104 35 25%
Slavens K-8 School 60 77 56%
DSST: Byers Middle School 53 146 73%
McAuliffe at Smiley 45 20 31%
Farrell B. Howell ECE-8 School 41 13 24%
Denver Center for International Studies MS 34 117 77%
STRIVE Prep - Federal 32 46 59%
Merrill Middle School 31 43 58%
KIPP Sunshine Peak Academy 19 1 5%
STRIVE Prep - Westwood 18 8 31%
6th grade programs with most non-boundary students waitlisted, who listed the school as their 1st preference:
Highest Demand Schools: 9th Grade
48
Top 10 Requested Programs for 2015-2016:
School NameSPF
Rating
Number of students
who listed each school
as their 1st preference
2016-17
Rank
2015-14
Rank
2014-13
Rank
East High School 649 1 1 1
South High School 295 2 3 2
CEC Middle College of Denver 202 3 7 5
Northfield High School 197 4 2 N/A
Thomas Jefferson High School 184 5 4 5
George Washington High School 174 6 10 3
DSST: Green Valley Ranch High School 155 7 6 7
STRIVE Prep - SMART Academy 148 8 5 4
Martin Luther King Jr. Early College 145 9 8 9
John F. Kennedy High School 129 10 13 10
School NameSPF
Rating
Non-boundary
students who listed
each school as their
1st preference and got
waitlisted
Non-boundary
students who listed
each school as their
1st preference and got
accepted
% Accepted
CEC Middle College of Denver 83 119 59%
Northfield High School 50 89 64%
STRIVE Prep - SMART Academy 21 127 86%
East High School 18 393 96%
KIPP Denver Collegiate High School 16 38 70%
Denver Montessori Junior/Senior School 2 1 33%
DCIS at Montbello 1 0 0%
Noel Community Arts School 1 0 0%
Martin Luther King Jr. Early College 1 2 67%
9th grade programs with most non-boundary students waitlisted, who listed the school as their 1st preference:
Where did Pioneer Charter students selected and assign to?
49
SPF and School Name# 1st Preference
Requests
DSST: Cole Middle School 38
Bruce Randolph School MS 12
DSST: Cole High School 9
McAuliffe at Manual 8
East High School 8
DSST: Stapleton Middle School 4
Manual High School 4
Northfield High School 3
KIPP Montbello College Prep 2
Bruce Randolph School 2
*Totals only included for applicants to 6th to 9th grade. Rest rolls to University Prep – Steele.
SPF School Name#
Assigned
DSST: Cole Middle School 40
Bruce Randolph School MS 12
East High School 9
DSST: Cole High School 9
McAuliffe at Manual 8
Manual High School 6
DSST: Stapleton Middle School 2
Bruce Randolph School 2
Venture Prep High School 2
STRIVE PREP - Excel 2
Top 10 Assigned SchoolsTop 10 First Choice Schools
Where did Barret students selected and assign to?
50
SPF and School Name# 1st Preference
Requests
Bruce Randolph School MS 6
DSST: Cole Middle School 6
Stedman Elementary School 3
Columbine Elementary School 2
University Prep - Steele 2
McAuliffe at Manual 2
University Prep - Arapahoe 1
Bryant Webster Dual Language
ECE-8 School 1
Gilpin Montessori Public School 1
Teller Elementary 1
*Totals only included for applicants to Kinder and 6th grade. Rest rolls to Columbine.
SPF and School Name#
Assigned
Columbine Elementary School 7
Bruce Randolph School MS 7
DSST: Cole Middle School 6
Stedman Elementary School 5
University Prep - Steele 2
McAuliffe at Manual 2
Smith Renaissance School 1
University Prep - Arapahoe 1
Bryant Webster Dual Language
ECE-8 School 1
Gilpin Montessori Public School 1
Top 10 Assigned SchoolsTop 10 First Choice Schools