analysis concerning the disaster of the forest: a theoretical and practical approach
DESCRIPTION
Analysis Concerning the Disaster of the Forest: A Theoretical and Practical Approach. Debra Larson JJ Smith Dean Howard Smith Northern Arizona University. Karen Wattenmaker. Support From. RODEO/CHEDISKI COMPLEX. 468,638 acres, or 732 square miles 426 structures - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Analysis Concerning the Disaster of the Forest: A Theoretical and
Practical Approach
Debra LarsonJJ Smith
Dean Howard SmithNorthern Arizona University
Karen Wattenmaker
Support From
RODEO/CHEDISKI COMPLEX
468,638 acres, or 732 square miles
426 structures
30,000 evacuees from 9 communities
Displaced families for 2 weeks
4,400 fire fighters
JD White
Rodeo/Chediski Costs
Navajo County $20 million lost property value
Property taxes for schools, fire, etc.
Cost of fighting it at $43 million
Hundreds of millions of dollars worth of timber
Flashflood potential increased
Business shutdowns
2001 Fire Season
Statistical Highlights 2001
Number of Fires 84,079 10 year Average (1991-2000) 106,400 Acres Burned 3,570,911 10-year Average (1991-2000) 4,083,347 Structures Burned 731
2000 Fire Season
Number of fires 122,82710-year Average (1990-1999) 106,393Acres Burned 8,422,237 10-year Average (1990-1999) 3,786,411Structures Burned 861Estimated Cost of Fire Suppression $1.3 billionMost large fires active in one day 86Number of people involved including firefighters and support personnel 30,000+
Rocky Mountain West
120 million acres of national forest39 million acres need restorationRestoration costs $150-$500+/acre$51 billion total costs2001 budget was $400 million125+ years of expenditures!Will likely never reach a reasonable level of success.
Stand Replacing Fires
Crown fires or Catastrophic Fires100 years of fire suppression
Not just the under story
Yellowstone in 1988
Yosemite
Glenwood Springs
Rodeo/Chediski 732 square miles
Flagstaff Forests
Pre settlement 20-30 trees/acre “Yellowbelly” old growth stands
Pre settlement 60-70 trees/acre typical
Today 200-300 trees/acre
Blackjack stands: 3000 trees/acre
Flagstaff Area
180,000 acres of wildland-urban interface at risk
$150-$1,200/acre for thinning
$90 Million for restoration of the Flagstaff region alone.
Karen Wattenmaker
Make A Choice
Kari Brown
Norgaard’s Coevolution Theory
(I)n the coevolutionary paradigm, the environment determines the fitness of how people behave as guided by alternative ways of knowing, forms of social organization, and types of technologies. Yet at the same time, how people know, organize and use tools determine the fitness characteristics of an evolving environment. At any point in time, each determines the other.
What is needed?
New ways of Knowing: ERI, SES
New ways of Organizing: policy and legal system
New ways of doing: extracting wood fiber
Current Forest Restoration
Thinning
Slash pile burning
Prescribed burning
Costs vary according to :
Concentration of stand
Pre-treatment condition
Access to roads
Commercial value of material
Type of disposal
Market conditions
Small Diameter Roundwood
Little engineering experience
Wood characteristics
Wood fiber characteristics
What can be produced?
Evaluation Criteria
Initial capital cost and flexibility of varying plant sizeWaste dischargesWater usageWood material propertiesSize and suitabilityRevenue potentialJobsMarket outlook
Product possibilities
Mechanical pulp and related paper and board products
Oriented Strand Board
Nonstructural particle board
Medium density fiberboard
Jane Jacobs
“differentiation emerging from generality”
“differentiations become generalities from which further differentiations emerge.”
“development depends on co-developments.”
not the “Thing Theory”
Small Roundwood Uses
Firewood
Hogan project
Post and pole
Vigas
Specialty items/furniture etc
Limited possibilities
Codevelopments
Entrepreneurial spirit (of the West)
New products and codevelopments
New uses and experiments
New jobs and opportunities
Increased tourism and activities due to fewer forest closures
Improved health
Lawsuits: 1 example
"This lawsuit can only harm our local forests and communities . . . These trees must be removed because we face a continual fire hazard. Dense vegetation still exists throughout the forest, and the potential this year for another Rodeo-Chediski-type fire in our area is very real…"
Lawsuits: a later example of the same salvage project
Although the plaintiffs did not get what they wanted from the District Court, they are winning the battle of time. If the legal process is spread out over a long enough time period, the dead timber will be unsalvageable. (Baeza, 2003b)
Necessary Co-Developments
Transportation
Processing
Developing Markets
Reinvesting in wood utilization industry
Governor’s Forest Health Oversight Council
all new or renovated state facilities to consider using commercially based wood pellets or wood chips for heating purposes (schools, universities, etc.).The legislature should provide a tax credit for homeowners that install and use wood pellet heat. develop recommendations for achieving greater contribution to energy generation in focusing on utilization of biomass materials
Permitting/Contracting Process
founded on the concepts of science-based forest management and ecological sustainability
Market prices between current cost of restoration (negative price) and current harvesting contracts (positive price.)
Interesting Market Question
Current restoration costs: $150-$1200/acre (negative price)
Current contracts on Centennial Forest $750/acre – an no market for the wood (Butler) (negative price)
Historical Sales $15/1000 board feet and $7.50/1000 cubic feet (positive prices) (8-10 years ago)
Or This
Debra Larson is Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Dean Howard Smith is Professor of Economics and Applied Indigenous Studies, and JJ Smith is Senior Research Associate, School of Forestry and the NAU Centennial Forest