analisis laporan keuangan subramanyam
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McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2009 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
FinancialStatement
Analysis
K R SubramanyamJ o h n J Wi ld
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Business Analysis
Evaluate Prospects Evaluate Risks
Business Decision Makers
Equity investors
Creditors
Managers
Merger and Acquisition Analysts
External Auditors
Directors
Regulators
Employees & Unions
Lawyers
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Information Sources for BusinessAnalysis
Trade reports
Regulatory filings
Economic Indicators
Industry Statistics
Financial Statements
Quantitative
Web sites
Vision/Mission Statement
Financial press
Press Releases
Chairpersons Letter
Management discussion & Analysis
Qualitative
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Types ofBusinessAnalysis
Credit Analysis Equity Analysis
Management &Control
Mergers, Acquisitions
& Divestitures
Director Oversight Regulation
External Auditing
Labor Negotiations
FinancialManagement
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Credit Analysis
TradeCreditors
Providegoods orservices
Most short-term
Usuallyimplicitinterest
Bear risk ofdefault
Non-tradeCreditors
Providemajor
financing
Most long-term
Usuallyexplicitinterest
Bear risk ofdefault
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Credit Analysis
LiquidityAbility to meet short-term obligations
Focus :
Current cash flows Make up of currentassets and liabilities
Liquidity of assets
SolvencyAbility to meet long-term obligations
Focus :
Long-term profitability Capital structure
Credit worthiness: Ability to honor credit obligations(downside risk)
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Equity Analysis
Technical analysis /
Charting Patterns in price or
volume history of astock
Predict future pricemovements
Fundamental AnalysisDetermine Intrinsic valuewithout reference toprice
Analyze and interpretkey factors
Economy
Industry
Company
Assessment of downside risk and upside potential
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ProspectiveAnalysis
AccountingAnalysis
BusinessEnvironment &
Strategy Analysis
IndustryAnalysis
StrategyAnalysis
FinancialAnalysis
Analysisof cash
flows Profitability
Analysis
RiskAnalysis
Cost of Capital Estimate Intrinsic Value
Component Processes ofBusiness Analysis
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Accounting Analysis
Comparability problems across firms and across time
Manager estimation error
Distortion problems Earnings management
Accounting Standards
AccountingRisk
Process to evaluate and adjust financialstatements to better reflect economic reality
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Prospective Analysis
Intrinsic Value
Business Environment
& Strategy Analysis
Accounting Analysis
Financial Analysis
Process to forecast future payoffs
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Dynamics of Business Activities
End of period
Beginning of period
Business Activities Time
Investing
Operating
Financing Planning
Planning Financing Investing
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Business Activities
PlanningActivities:
Goals& Objectives
Competition Pricing
Market demands Tactics
Promotion
Managerial performance
Opportunities
Projections
Distribution
Obstacles
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Business Activities
Financing
Financing activities
Owner (equity)
Nonowner (liabilities)
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Investing activities
Buying resources Selling resources
Investing = Financing
Business Activities
FinancingInvesting
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PlanningActivities Investing
Activities FinancialActivities
Operating ActivitiesRevenues and expenses from providing
goods and services
Business Activities
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Financial Statements Reflect Business Activities
Planning Investing
Current: Cash Accounts Receivable
Inventories Marketable SecuritiesNoncurrent: Land, Buildings, &
Equipment Patents Investments
Assets
Balance Sheet
Financing Current: Notes Payable Accounts Payable Salaries Payable Income Tax PayableNoncurrent: Bonds Payable Common Stock Retained Earnings
Liabilities & Equity
Balance Sheet
Statement of
Shareholders Equity
Operating Sales Cost of Goods Sold Selling Expense Administrative Expense Interest Expense Income Tax Expense
Net Income
Income statement
Cash Flow
Statement of
Cash Flows
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Financial Statements
Balance Sheet
Income Statement
Statement of ShareholdersEquity
Statement of Cash Flows
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Balance Sheet
Total Investing = Total Financing= Creditor Financing + Owner
Financing
Colgate Financing(in $billions)
$9.138 = $7.727 + $1.410
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Income Statement
Revenues Cost of goods sold = Gross ProfitGross profit Operating expenses = Operating Profit
Colgates Profitability (in $billions)
$12.238 - $5.536 = $6.701 Gross Profit
$6.701 - $4.5411 = $2.160 Operating profit
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Statement of Cash Flows
Net Cash Flows fromOperating Activities
Net Cash Flows fromInvesting Activities
Net Cash Flows fromFinancing Activities
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Additional Information (Beyond Financial Statements)
Managements Discussion & Analysis (MD&A)
Management Report
Auditor Report
Explanatory Notes to Financial Statements
Supplementary Information
Proxy Statement
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Analysis Preview
Purpose: Evaluation of consecutivefinancial statements
Output: Direction, speed, & extent of anytrend(s)
Types: Year-to-year Change Analysis Index-Number Trend Analysis
Comparative Analysis Yr2Yr1 Yr3
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Analysis Preview
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Analysis Preview
Purpose : Evaluation of internal makeupof financial statements
Evaluation of financial statementaccounts across companies
Output: Proportionate size of assets,liabilities, equity, revenues, &expenses
Common-Size Analysis
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Analysis Preview
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Analysis Preview
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Analysis Preview
Purpose : Evaluate relation between two or moreeconomically important items (onestarting point for further analysis)
Output: Mathematical expression of relationbetween two or more items
Cautions: Prior Accounting analysis is importantInterpretation is key - long vs shortterm & benchmarking
Ratio Analysis
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Analysis Preview
Purpose: Estimate intrinsic value of acompany (or stock)
Basis: Present value theory (time value ofmoney)
Valuation Valuation - an important goal of many types
of business analysis
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Analysis Preview
Debt (Bond) Valuation
Bt is the value of the bond at time t
It +n is the interest payment in period t+nF is the principal payment (usually the debt s face value)r is the investors required interest rate (yield to maturity )
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Analysis Preview
Equity Valuation
Vt is the value of an equity security at time tDt +n is the dividend in period t+nk is the cost of capitalE refers to expected dividends
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Analysis PreviewEquity Valuation - Free Cash Flow to Equity
Model
FCF t+n is the free cash flow in the period t + n [often
defined as cash flow from operations less capitalexpenditures]k is the cost of capitalE refers to an expectation
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Analysis Preview
Equity Valuation - Residual Income Model
BVt is the book value at the end of period tRi
t+nis the residual income in period t + n [defined as
net income, NI, minus a charge on beginningbook value, BV, or RI t = NI t - (k x BV t-1)]
k is the cost of capitalE refers to an expectation
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Analysis in an Efficient Market
Three assumed forms of market efficiency
Weak Form - prices reflect information inpast prices
Semi-strong - prices reflect all publicForm informationStrong Form - prices reflect all public and
private information
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Book Organization
Financial Statement Analysis
Part IIntroduction and Overview
Part IIIFinancial Analysis
Part IIAccounting Analysis
Chapter 1: Overview ofFinancial StatementAnalysis
Chapter 2: FinancialReporting andAnalysis
Chapter 3: AnalyzingFinancial Activities
Chapter 4: AnalyzingInvesting Activities
Chapter 5: AnalyzingInvesting Activities:Special topic
Chapter 6: AnalyzingOperating Activities
Chapter 7: Cash FlowAnalysis
Chapter 8: Return onInvested Capital
Chapter 9: ProfitabilityAnalysis
Chapter 10: ProspectiveAnalysis
Chapter 11: CreditAnalysis
Chapter 12: Equity