an update on grid parity - iea pvps · an update on grid parity ... since ~50%+ of conventional...

An update on Grid parity

Christian Breyer1 and Alexander Gerlach2

1 Professor for Solar Economy, LUT2 Market Research Expert, Hanwha Q Cells

IEA PVPES Task 1 Workshop on

Self-consumption business models – technical and economic challanges

Amsterdam, September 22, 2014

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5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

35.000

20

10

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ma

rke

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olu

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[T

Wh

]

RES COM IND

3 An Update on Grid-Parity

Christian Breyer ► [email protected]

Agenda

Market Development and Assumptions

Grid-Parity Events till 2030

Outlook

Summary



Global Installed PV Capacity: Growth Rates

enormous market growth ahead,

since ~50%+ of conventional power capacity base could be supplemented

by PV at least and there is only limited competition to wind power

source: Werner C., et al., 2014. Global Installed Photovoltaic Capacity and

Identification of Hidden Growth Markets, /EP.1.3 (Friday)



History of Grid-Parity

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

ma

rke

t v

olu

me

RE

S [

TW

h]

Asia Americas Africa Europe

150 countries

Sources: Hoffmann W., 1999; Milner A., 2008; Ossenbrink H., 2012; Breyer Ch.

and Gerlach A., 2012; EPIA, 2014

IT, GR, DE 2013



Global PV Market till 2020

Sources: Hanwha Q CELLS Market Intelligence, IHS, BSW, EuPD, Bank analysts

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

RoW

INDIA

CHINA

JAPAN

USA

RoE

UK

FRANCE

ITALY

GERMANY

19.5

28.030.8

38.2

45.8

52.4

61.8

68.5

76.2

83.4

90.5

Growth: 44% 10% 24% 20% 14% 18% 11% 11% 9% 9%

significant upside potential growth rates have been considerably

higher in the past

high economic market potential ahead



Historic and Future Market Growth

Sources: Hanwha Q CELLS Market Intelligence, Photon, GTM, EPIA, IHS, Analyst reports

On average PV showed a strong average 45% growth rate during the last 18 years

In recent years the growth has decreased; but still allows for more than 600 GWp till

2020 and therefore 3x doubling of cumulative installed capacity

0

60

120

180

240

300

360

420

480

540

600

660

720

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

past growth [%] future growth [%] cumulated market volume [GWp]



Development of System Cost

0

250

500

750

1.000

1.250

1.500

1.750

2.000

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

4.500

5.000

5.500

glo

ba

l in

sta

lled

PV

cap

acit

y [

GW

p]

PV

syste

m p

rice [

EU

R/k

Wp

]

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 installed capacity

In 2014 PV system cost decreased by -64% since 2007 and will decrease to -

74% and -80% by 2020 and 2030 respectively

Despite the strong focus on system price development recent publications

till 2012 have underestimated the speed of reduction

Further significant price reduction beyond this projection is possible

Sources: Hanwha Q CELLS Market Intelligence, IHS, BSW, EuPD

*Average global system prices [EUR/kWp]

YearsSystem Price

[EUR/kWp]*

2007 4.800 €

2008 4.200 €

2009 3.600 €

2010 2.700 €

2011 2.350 €

2012 2.000 €

2013 1.743 €

2014 1.485 €

2015 1.389 €

2016 1.309 €

2017 1.241 €

2018 1.185 €

2019 1.136 €

2020 1.094 €

2021 1.058 €

2022 1.026 €

2023 997 €

2024 972 €

2025 949 €

2026 928 €

2027 909 €

2028 892 €

2029 877 €

2030 863 €



National Interest Rates

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0 1 10 100 1000 10000

we

igh

ted

co

st o

f ca

pit

al [

%]

electricity consumption [TWh]

National interest rates vary significantly: 3.7% - Japan and 254% - Zimbabwe

The median is at 12.8% - higher than in previous publications assumed

Among other factors higher electricity demand indicates a lower WACC

A stable national finance situation and therefore a low WACC is one key driver for

countries with low irradiation to reach Grid-Parity even before Sunbelt countries

Sources: Ondraczek J., et al., 2013. Wacc the dog: The effect of financing costs on levelized cost of solar power

Median – 12.8% WACC

Trend – higher electricity

consumption indicates

lower WACC

Runaways – high

WACC w/ significant

impact on Grid-parity:

+5 – 10 years later

compared to peers



Assumptions

Capex is based on regional data (Europe, Americas, Africa, Asia-Pacific) by segment:

Capex (average):

RESidential:

COMmercial:

INDustrial:

Opex:

RES 2.00%; COM 1.75% and IND 1.50% of Capex

Performance Ratio:

RESidential: 76.5% (2010) – 85.0% (2030)

COMmercial: 79.0% (2010) – 87.5% (2030)

INDustrial: 81.5% (2010) – 90.0% (2030)

WACC: National Interest Rates & 30/70 – Equity/Debt

Lifetime 25 years (2010) – 32 years (2030)

System Learning Rate: 15.0% (2010) – 7.5% (2030)

Market Growth: 85% (2010) – 10% (2030)

Electricity Price Increase: 1.0 - 5.0% (depending on absolute level)

15% of the electricity price is attributed to fixed charges and excluded

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

3.540 € 1.830 € 1.430 € 1.220 € 1.110 €

2.800 € 1.520 € 1.150 € 980 € 890 €

2.170 € 1.100 € 840 € 720 € 650 €



Agenda



Outlook

Summary



RES – Grid-Parity – top 30 Countries

Sources: Hanwha Q CELLS Market Intelligence, Eurostat, EIA, utility feedback

RESidential RESidential beyond Grid-Parity

UnitedStates

ChinaJapan

Russia

Germany

Canada

India

France

Brazil

UnitedKingdom

Italy

SpainAustralia

MexicoSouthAfrica

Korea

Taiwan

Iran

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

Sweden

Ukraine

Thailand

Indonesia

Norway

Netherlands

Poland

Argentina

Malaysia

Egypt

1.000

1.100

1.200

1.300

1.400

1.500

1.600

1.700

1.800

1.900

2.000

2.100

2.200

2.300

2.400

0,000 0,025 0,050 0,075 0,100 0,125 0,150 0,175 0,200 0,225 0,250 0,275 0,300 0,325 0,350 0,375 0,400

an

nu

al ir

rad

iati

on

on

mo

du

le le

ve

l [k

Wh

/m²a

]

average cost of electricity [EUR/kWh]

2010

Demand beyond

Grid-Parity

0.000 TWh

(00%)






UnitedStates

ChinaJapan

Russia

Germany

Canada

India

France

Brazil

UnitedKingdom

Italy

SpainAustralia

MexicoSouthAfrica

Korea

Taiwan

Iran

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

Sweden

Ukraine

Thailand

Indonesia

Norway

Netherlands

Poland

Argentina

Malaysia

Egypt

1.000

1.100

1.200

1.300

1.400

1.500

1.600

1.700

1.800

1.900

2.000

2.100

2.200

2.300

2.400

0,000 0,025 0,050 0,075 0,100 0,125 0,150 0,175 0,200 0,225 0,250 0,275 0,300 0,325 0,350 0,375 0,400

an

nu

al ir

rad

iati

on

on

mo

du

le le

ve

l [k

Wh

/m²a

]


2015

Demand beyond

Grid-Parity

1.194 TWh

(20%)






UnitedStates

ChinaJapan

Russia

Germany

Canada

India

France

Brazil

UnitedKingdom

Italy

SpainAustralia

MexicoSouthAfrica

Korea

Taiwan

Iran

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

Sweden

Ukraine

Thailand

Indonesia

Norway

Netherlands

Poland

Argentina

Malaysia

Egypt

1.000

1.100

1.200

1.300

1.400

1.500

1.600

1.700

1.800

1.900

2.000

2.100

2.200

2.300

2.400

0,000 0,025 0,050 0,075 0,100 0,125 0,150 0,175 0,200 0,225 0,250 0,275 0,300 0,325 0,350 0,375 0,400

an

nu

al ir

rad

iati

on

on

mo

du

le le

ve

l [k

Wh

/m²a

]


2020

Demand beyond

Grid-Parity

4.440 TWh

(63%)






UnitedStates

ChinaJapan

Russia

Germany

Canada

India

France

Brazil

UnitedKingdom

Italy

SpainAustralia

MexicoSouthAfrica

Korea

Taiwan

Iran

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

Sweden

Ukraine

Thailand

Indonesia

Norway

Netherlands

Poland

Argentina

Malaysia

Egypt

1.000

1.100

1.200

1.300

1.400

1.500

1.600

1.700

1.800

1.900

2.000

2.100

2.200

2.300

2.400

0,000 0,025 0,050 0,075 0,100 0,125 0,150 0,175 0,200 0,225 0,250 0,275 0,300 0,325 0,350 0,375 0,400

an

nu

al ir

rad

iati

on

on

mo

du

le le

ve

l [k

Wh

/m²a

]


2025

Demand beyond

Grid-Parity

6.737 TWh

(81%)






UnitedStates

ChinaJapan

Russia

Germany

Canada

India

France

Brazil

UnitedKingdom

Italy

SpainAustralia

MexicoSouthAfrica

Korea

Taiwan

Iran

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

Sweden

Ukraine

Thailand

Indonesia

Norway

Netherlands

Poland

Argentina

Malaysia

Egypt

1.000

1.100

1.200

1.300

1.400

1.500

1.600

1.700

1.800

1.900

2.000

2.100

2.200

2.300

2.400

0,000 0,025 0,050 0,075 0,100 0,125 0,150 0,175 0,200 0,225 0,250 0,275 0,300 0,325 0,350 0,375 0,400

an

nu

al ir

rad

iati

on

on

mo

du

le le

ve

l [k

Wh

/m²a

]


2030

Demand beyond

Grid-Parity

8.594 TWh

(87%)



COM – Grid-Parity – top 30 Countries

COMmercial COMmercial beyond Grid-Parity


ChinaJapan

Russia

Germany

Canada

India

France

Brazil

United Kingdom

Italy

SpainAustralia

MexicoSouth Africa

Korea

Taiwan

Iran

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

Sweden

Ukraine

Thailand

Indonesia

Norway

Netherlands

Poland

Argentina

Malaysia

Egypt

UnitedStates

1.000

1.100

1.200

1.300

1.400

1.500

1.600

1.700

1.800

1.900

2.000

2.100

2.200

2.300

2.400

0,000 0,025 0,050 0,075 0,100 0,125 0,150 0,175 0,200 0,225 0,250 0,275 0,300 0,325 0,350

an

nu

al ir

rad

iati

on

on

mo

du

le le

ve

l [k

Wh

/m²a

]


2010

Demand beyond

Grid-Parity

110 TWh

(2%)






ChinaJapan

Russia

Germany

Canada

India

France

Brazil

United Kingdom

Italy

SpainAustralia

MexicoSouth Africa

Korea

Taiwan

Iran

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

Sweden

Ukraine

Thailand

Indonesia

Norway

Netherlands

Poland

Argentina

Malaysia

Egypt

UnitedStates

1.000

1.100

1.200

1.300

1.400

1.500

1.600

1.700

1.800

1.900

2.000

2.100

2.200

2.300

2.400

0,000 0,025 0,050 0,075 0,100 0,125 0,150 0,175 0,200 0,225 0,250 0,275 0,300 0,325 0,350

an

nu

al ir

rad

iati

on

on

mo

du

le le

ve

l [k

Wh

/m²a

]


2015

Demand beyond

Grid-Parity

1.523 TWh

(25%)






ChinaJapan

Russia

Germany

Canada

India

France

Brazil

United Kingdom

Italy

SpainAustralia

MexicoSouth Africa

Korea

Taiwan

Iran

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

Sweden

Ukraine

Thailand

Indonesia

Norway

Netherlands

Poland

Argentina

Malaysia

Egypt

UnitedStates

1.000

1.100

1.200

1.300

1.400

1.500

1.600

1.700

1.800

1.900

2.000

2.100

2.200

2.300

2.400

0,000 0,025 0,050 0,075 0,100 0,125 0,150 0,175 0,200 0,225 0,250 0,275 0,300 0,325 0,350

an

nu

al ir

rad

iati

on

on

mo

du

le le

ve

l [k

Wh

/m²a

]


2020

Demand beyond

Grid-Parity

3.111 TWh

(44%)






ChinaJapan

Russia

Germany

Canada

India

France

Brazil

United Kingdom

Italy

SpainAustralia

MexicoSouth Africa

Korea

Taiwan

Iran

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

Sweden

Ukraine

Thailand

Indonesia

Norway

Netherlands

Poland

Argentina

Malaysia

Egypt

UnitedStates

1.000

1.100

1.200

1.300

1.400

1.500

1.600

1.700

1.800

1.900

2.000

2.100

2.200

2.300

2.400

0,000 0,025 0,050 0,075 0,100 0,125 0,150 0,175 0,200 0,225 0,250 0,275 0,300 0,325 0,350

an

nu

al ir

rad

iati

on

on

mo

du

le le

ve

l [k

Wh

/m²a

]


2025

Demand beyond

Grid-Parity

7.148 TWh

(85%)






ChinaJapan

Russia

Germany

Canada

India

France

Brazil

United Kingdom

Italy

SpainAustralia

MexicoSouth Africa

Korea

Taiwan

Iran

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

Sweden

Ukraine

Thailand

Indonesia

Norway

Netherlands

Poland

Argentina

Malaysia

Egypt

UnitedStates

1.000

1.100

1.200

1.300

1.400

1.500

1.600

1.700

1.800

1.900

2.000

2.100

2.200

2.300

2.400

0,000 0,025 0,050 0,075 0,100 0,125 0,150 0,175 0,200 0,225 0,250 0,275 0,300 0,325 0,350

an

nu

al ir

rad

iati

on

on

mo

du

le le

ve

l [k

Wh

/m²a

]


2030

Demand beyond

Grid-Parity

9.075 TWh

(90%)



Impression for (Commercial) End-User Profitability

source: REC Solar, 2014. Study on the Profitability of Commercial

Self-Consumption Solar Installations in Germany; Italy and

Turkey (only in German available)

Lappeenranta University of Technology

• both systems on the right are part of a 220 kWp

commercial solar PV system

• it is financially beneficial for the university

source: Kosonen A., Ahola J., Breyer Ch., Albó A., 2014. Large Scale Solar

Power Plant in Nordic Conditions, 16th EU Conference on Power

Electronics and Applications, August 26-28



IND – Grid-Parity – top 30 Countries

INDustrial INDustrial beyond Grid-Parity


UnitedStates

ChinaJapan

Russia

Germany

Canada

India

France

Brazil

United Kingdom

Italy

SpainAustralia

MexicoSouth Africa

Korea

Taiwan

Iran

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

Sweden

Ukraine

ThailandIndonesia

Norway

NetherlandsPoland

Argentina

Malaysia

Egypt

1.000

1.100

1.200

1.300

1.400

1.500

1.600

1.700

1.800

1.900

2.000

2.100

2.200

2.300

2.400

0,000 0,025 0,050 0,075 0,100 0,125 0,150 0,175 0,200 0,225 0,250 0,275 0,300

an

nu

al ir

rad

iati

on

on

mo

du

le le

ve

l [k

Wh

/m²a

]


2010

Demand beyond

Grid-Parity

376 TWh

(5%)






UnitedStates

ChinaJapan

Russia

Germany

Canada

India

France

Brazil

United Kingdom

Italy

SpainAustralia

MexicoSouth Africa

Korea

Taiwan

Iran

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

Sweden

Ukraine

ThailandIndonesia

Norway

NetherlandsPoland

Argentina

Malaysia

Egypt

1.000

1.100

1.200

1.300

1.400

1.500

1.600

1.700

1.800

1.900

2.000

2.100

2.200

2.300

2.400

0,000 0,025 0,050 0,075 0,100 0,125 0,150 0,175 0,200 0,225 0,250 0,275 0,300

an

nu

al ir

rad

iati

on

on

mo

du

le le

ve

l [k

Wh

/m²a

]


2015

Demand beyond

Grid-Parity

4.654 TWh

(52%)






UnitedStates

ChinaJapan

Russia

Germany

Canada

India

France

Brazil

United Kingdom

Italy

SpainAustralia

MexicoSouth Africa

Korea

Taiwan

Iran

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

Sweden

Ukraine

ThailandIndonesia

Norway

NetherlandsPoland

Argentina

Malaysia

Egypt

1.000

1.100

1.200

1.300

1.400

1.500

1.600

1.700

1.800

1.900

2.000

2.100

2.200

2.300

2.400

0,000 0,025 0,050 0,075 0,100 0,125 0,150 0,175 0,200 0,225 0,250 0,275 0,300

an

nu

al ir

rad

iati

on

on

mo

du

le le

ve

l [k

Wh

/m²a

]


2020

Demand beyond

Grid-Parity

7.162 TWh

(68%)






UnitedStates

ChinaJapan

Russia

Germany

Canada

India

France

Brazil

United Kingdom

Italy

SpainAustralia

MexicoSouth Africa

Korea

Taiwan

Iran

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

Sweden

Ukraine

ThailandIndonesia

Norway

NetherlandsPoland

Argentina

Malaysia

Egypt

1.000

1.100

1.200

1.300

1.400

1.500

1.600

1.700

1.800

1.900

2.000

2.100

2.200

2.300

2.400

0,000 0,025 0,050 0,075 0,100 0,125 0,150 0,175 0,200 0,225 0,250 0,275 0,300

an

nu

al ir

rad

iati

on

on

mo

du

le le

ve

l [k

Wh

/m²a

]


2025

Demand beyond

Grid-Parity

11.199 TWh

(89%)






UnitedStates

ChinaJapan

Russia

Germany

Canada

India

France

Brazil

United Kingdom

Italy

SpainAustralia

MexicoSouth Africa

Korea

Taiwan

Iran

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

Sweden

Ukraine

ThailandIndonesia

Norway

NetherlandsPoland

Argentina

Malaysia

Egypt

1.000

1.100

1.200

1.300

1.400

1.500

1.600

1.700

1.800

1.900

2.000

2.100

2.200

2.300

2.400

0,000 0,025 0,050 0,075 0,100 0,125 0,150 0,175 0,200 0,225 0,250 0,275 0,300

an

nu

al ir

rad

iati

on

on

mo

du

le le

ve

l [k

Wh

/m²a

]


2030

Demand beyond

Grid-Parity

14.647 TWh

(98%)



Interest Rates – Impact on Grid-Parity

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%ele

ctr

icit

y m

ark

et

beyo

nd

g

rid

-pari

ty

national - interest rates [%] international - interest rates [%]

Adding national country based interest rates has several effects on Grid-Parity:

1: The developed countries like JP and DE reach Grid-Parity faster during the 2010s

2: Transitioning & less developed countries are delayed due to higher WACC

3: Till the end of 2020s PV has become cheap enough despite higher WACC

Sources: Ondraczek J., et al., 2013. Wacc the dog: The effect of financing costs on levelized cost of solar power

1.

2.

3.



Global Grid-Parity Volume

GLOBAL MARKET VOLUME [TWh] GLOBAL MARKET VOLUME [% of total volume]

Years 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

RES 2 3 15 24 34 44 54 66 71 79 94 100 106 116 120 121 128 131 133 138 141

COM 11 11 26 31 40 49 64 80 85 99 105 113 122 127 134 138 142 143 144 148 150

IND 17 19 31 38 56 71 89 99 104 110 117 126 133 141 143 145 147 149 150 154 157


NUMBER OF MARKETS BEYOND GRID-PARITY BY SEGMENT

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

20

23

20

24

20

25

20

26

20

27

20

28

20

29

20

30m

ark

et

vo

lum

e [

% o

f to

tal v

olu

me]

RES COM IND

-

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

35.000

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

20

23

20

24

20

25

20

26

20

27

20

28

20

29

20

30

mark

et

vo

lum

e [

TW

h]

RES COM IND



Global Grid-Parity Volume

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

9.000

10.000

Europe Africa Americas Asia-Pacific

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

9.000

10.000



RE

SID

EN

TIA

L [

TW

h]

CO

MM

ER

CIA

L [

TW

h]

IND

US

TR

IAL

[T

Wh

]

RE

SID

EN

TIA

L [

%]

CO

MM

ER

CIA

L [

%]

IND

US

TR

IAL

[%

]GL

OB

AL

GR

ID-P

AR

ITY

BY

VO

LU

ME

GL

OB

AL

GR

ID-P

AR

ITY

BY

VO

LU

ME

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


215 countries

215 countries

215 countries

215 countries

215 countries

0

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215 countries



Agenda



Outlook

Summary



Do not forget Fuel-Parity

* oil production cost 4 $/barrel, world market price for opportunity cost today

80 $/barrel and in future 160 $/barrel, PV Capex 2000 €/kWp (2010) and 1000

€/kWp (2020), 5% WACC

source: Breyer Ch., Görig M., et al., 2011. Economics of Hybrid PV-Fossil Power Plants, 26th

EU PVSEC, Hamburg, September 5–9

Breyer Ch. and Reiß A., 2014. Hybrid PV Power Plants: Least Cost Power Options for

the MENA Region, 7AV.6.23 (Monday 17:00-18:30)

Macroeconomic implications for MENA

• MENA among first fuel-parity markets in

the world

• 1 GW PV saves 2.0 - 2.5m bbl oil per year

• Investment in PV results in 20% IRR for

MENA region due to higher oil export

revenues

Reality in the year 2014

• Oil LCOE about 19 $ct/kWh

• PV LCOE about 8 $ct/kWh



100% RE in Ireland – Aalborg University, DK

source:

Connolly D. and Mathiesen V., 2014. A technical and economic

analysis of one potential pathway to a 100% renewable energy

system, Int. J. Sustain Energy Planning and Mgm

Key characteristics:

• 100% RE system for all sector

• hourly resolved simulation

• solar PV ‚forgotten‘

• well balanced RE-heat and RE-mobility

• focus on energy flows and system costs

• no grid, no import/ export, not fully optimised




Key insights:

• 7 step approach feasible

• significant increase in power demand (~ +350%)

• BUT, no change in total primary energy demand (TPED)

• highly efficient power-based RE system enables power-

to-gas/liquid pathways




Key insights:

• 2020 system cost only 30% higher than reference (neglecting: cost

of climate change, cancer deaths, negative trade balance effects,

lower level of employment in energy sector, less tax income)

• 2050 system cost identical to reference

• simplified standard economic consideration, neglecting the full

view on total societal cost

• otherwise, maybe 30% less in cost (personal estimate)

• significant increase in employment (> 100 000 jobs)



Agora Energiewende – Role of Electricity

Key insights:

• mobility will be powered by

electricity (batteries and PtG)

• chemistry will change the resource

basis towards ‚electricity‘

source:

Agora Energiewende, 2014. Stromspeicher in der Energiwende



Agenda



Outlook

Summary



Summary

We expect strong PV market growth during the 2010s and PV eventually

reaching a 600+ GWp cumulated installed capacity

Very good economics of PV push the growth ahead

Cumulated installations by YE 2014 represent a marginal 10% of 2030

market potential

Annual installations may grow 2x till 2020 and 3.5x till 2030

PV can successfully compete with grid electricity

Adaptations in this model:

fixed charges of the electricity bill are excluded (~15% of total cost)

national WACC levels are applied

system cost assumptions rather conservative

Nevertheless PV becomes more competitive in more than 150 countries and

their respective market segments; reaching 60% and 94% of global

electricity demand in 2020 and 2030; respectively

Thanks for your attention!

an update on grid parity - iea pvps · an update on grid parity ... since ~50%+ of conventional...

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