An Overview of Structured Decision Making Module C

Module Developed by:Jean Fitts Cochrane, IAP World Services, Patuxent Wildlife Research Center

Angela Matz, USFWS Fairbanks Field OfficeJennifer A. Szymanski, USFWS Midwest Region

James E. Lyons, USFWS Division of Migratory Bird ManagementSarah J. Converse & Michael C. Runge, USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center

Determining Determining ObjectivesObjectivesPrPrOOACTACT

Introduction to Structured Decision MakingUSGS & USFWS/NCTC

Module Developed by:Jean Fitts Cochrane, IAP World Services, Patuxent Wildlife Research

CenterAngela Matz, USFWS Fairbanks Field Office

Jennifer A. Szymanski, USFWS Midwest Region James E. Lyons, USFWS Division of Migratory Bird Management

Sarah J. Converse & Michael C. Runge, USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center

• Objectives are what you really care about• Well defined objectives are critical

o Create alternativeso Compare alternativeso Choose pertinent informationo Explain your decision to others

• All structured decision steps build from here

Determining ObjectivesDetermining Objectives

“If you don’t know where you’re going,Any road will get you there.” --Lewis Carroll

We will review the following:1.Articulate goals & concerns 2.Convert goals & concerns to objectives3.Structure objectives4.Create measurable attributes for each objective5.Repeat as needed

Setting ObjectivesSetting Objectives

Think about:• What is the problem?• Why is it hard to make this decision?• What are the critical concerns?• What’s wrong with the current situation?• What is the best possible outcome for me?•What would be the best possible outcome for others?•What is the worst thing that could happen?

1. Articulate goals & 1. Articulate goals & concernsconcerns

• If you don’t make a decision, what will happen?• What are you ultimately trying to achieve?• What does this issue look like from other

perspectives (e.g., other stakeholders)?• Think of possible solutions & ask “why”?

o How would you explain them to others?o What is good and bad about these solutions?o What constraints and guidelines are restricting

your choices?• Make concerns (and subsequent objectives)

distinct and independent

• Rephrase values statements as active, directional objectives

2. Convert values into 2. Convert values into objectivesobjectives

Hope to Achieve Potential Objective 

Improve fishing 

Maximize recreational fishing success

 

Reduce led consumption by loons

 

Maximize persistence of loon populations

 

Avoid release of invasive species and protect native species

Maintain native invertebrate and fish communities in lakes

 

Increased coordination Minimize redundancies

 

Reduce cost and manage within budget

 

Minimize cost

Sources of concerns and objectives•Government structure

o Congresso Current administrationo Judicial systemso Agency

•General & specific constituencieso The Publico Local stakeholderso Other interested parties

Setting Objectives in the Setting Objectives in the Public SectorPublic Sector

Government mandates•Broad outlines and direction, molded by legal and social constraints•Developed from:

o Resource management lawso Regulationso Guidance and policyo Legal precedent

•Should be used to set specific objectives

We’ll discuss how to:3a) Classify objectives3b) Distinguish types of objectives3c) Create an objectives hierarchy

Step 3. Structure Step 3. Structure ObjectivesObjectives

1. Fundamental o the basic reason for caring about the decision

(essential)2. Means

o influence the achievement of fundamental objectives (not necessarily essential)

3. Process o concern how the decision is made rather than what

decision is made4. Strategic

o higher level – objectives covering all decisions made by the organization or person

Step 3a. Classify Step 3a. Classify objectivesobjectives

• “…especially in public decisions made by government, both what is chosen and how the alternative is chosen are important. In other words, the process of decision-making in these situations matters…”

• Recognize differences between objectives for what decision to make and objectives for how to make it – the Process Objectives

• What examples have you encountered and how did you deal with these?

Process ObjectivesProcess Objectives

• Example: Organizational Mission• Influenced by other decisions but unlikely to be

achieved by them• Focus is on larger mission, mandate or image• Provides guidance for all decisions made

Strategic ObjectivesStrategic Objectives

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Conserve, restore, sustain

resources

Facilitate coordination

Identify shared

priorities

Leverage resources

How do you know what’s fundamental?•Must be controllable – alternatives appropriate to this context actually influence the degree to which this objective is achieved

o Not too broad or high level to be beyond control with alternatives available for this context

•Must be essential – relevant to every alternative o Not too narrow and can’t be substituted with

something else (e.g., not just one possible means)

•Thus, what is “fundamental” depends on the decision context

Fundamental ObjectivesFundamental Objectives

• Completeo Don’t leave out any areas of concern (objectives)

• Nonredundanto Redundant objectives can lead to “double-counting”

• Conciseo Focus on the core issues

• Specific o Consequences are clear; attributes can be readily

identified• Understandable

o The objectives do not suffer from linguistic uncertainty

Desired properties of Desired properties of objectivesobjectives

• Fundamental and means objectives must be separated to continue the SDM process. If not…o Leads to skewed weighting of your objectiveso Limits creative problem solving

3b. Distinguish 3b. Distinguish fundamental and means fundamental and means

objectivesobjectives

Fundamental objectives• What is the bottom line? Fundamental value?• What do you really care about in this decision?

Example: increase loon populations

Means objectives• What methods will get you to the “ends”? • How will you achieve the fundamental value?

Example: minimize lead in fishing tackle

• Ask, and keep asking, “Why Is That Important?” • When your answer is:

o “Just because” o “It’s the law”o “This is important”o “Inherent value”→You have reached a fundamental objective.

Getting to Fundamental Getting to Fundamental ObjectivesObjectives

• Ask, and keep asking, “How?”o How can I address this concern?o How can I measure success?o How can I make the stakeholders happy?

• The answers may help you find creative alternatives.

Getting to Means Getting to Means ObjectivesObjectives

FUNDAMENTAL

MEANS

Ask “How”Ask “Why”

• Fundamental objectives may be parts of a broader, more fundamental objective

• To sort out the hierarchy among fundamental objectives, ask: “Is this part of something larger?”

3c. Create Objectives 3c. Create Objectives HierarchiesHierarchies

Conserve Threatened Species

MaintainSpecies

Abundance

Maintain Species

Distribution

Maintain Genetic

Diversity

Conserve Threatened Species

• Another decision context may add fundamental objectives

MaintainSpecies

Abundance

Maintain Species

Distribution

Maintain Genetic

Diversity

Minimize Regulatory

Burden

Follow Agency Direction

3c. Create Objectives 3c. Create Objectives HierarchiesHierarchies

DRAFT - Objectives for moose

management

Effects of hunting on moose (& perception

of) (-)

Hunting

oppor-tunities (+)

Ecological

sustain-ability

(+)

Quality of moose habitat

(+)

Viewing opportu-nities

(+)

Fu

nd

am

en

tal

Mean

s

MN’s sense

of place (+)

Public acceptance of DNR mgt. of moose (+)

Abundance of moose (+)

Timber

produc-tion (+)

Bio-diversity (+)

“Wild-ness” (+)

Timber

products

industry (+)

Near-boreal forest (+)

Hunter

success (+)

Hunt quality (+)

Commercial use of natural

resources (+)

Effects of

disease (-)

Effects of predation

(-)

Cultural values

of tribal members (+)

Long-term popn.

viability of moose (+)

Continued below…

Communication with

public (+)

Integration of social sci.

& moose mgt. (+)

Provide outdoor recreation (+)

Forest sustainabilit

y (+)

Preserve MN

heritage (+)

Yellow = Strategic

Green = Fund.

Blue = Means

Example

• Attributes are how you measure performance• You need attributes for fundamental objectives

that are at the lowest level of the hierarchy• Attributes provide the evaluation criteria for how

well your alternatives serve your objectives. • units you use to measure the consequences

(outcomes) of decision alternatives

• Attribute = Performance Measure = Criterion

4. Create Measurable 4. Create Measurable AttributesAttributes

An attribute includes:•Content (what you’ll measure) •Preferred direction of the measured content

o increase or decreaseo The aspirationo maximize or minimize? a particular threshold

(absolute or relative)?

• Lunch• Reconvene (on time) at 1:15pm

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