an introduction to feasibility analysis: an annotated presentation
DESCRIPTION
An Introduction to Feasibility Analysis: An Annotated Presentation. presented to ASU MRED Program by James R. DeLisle, Ph.D. February 10, 2010 (annotations modified 2.16.2010). Feasibility Process. Definition of Feasibility Problem General Problem Statement Client Perspective - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.
An Introduction to Feasibility Analysis:An Annotated Presentation
presented to ASU MRED Program
by James R. DeLisle, Ph.D.February 10, 2010
(annotations modified 2.16.2010)
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.
Feasibility Process• Definition of Feasibility Problem
– General Problem Statement– Client Perspective
• Strategic Evaluation– Positional Analysis– Selection and modification of Feasibility Model
• Data Selection and Collection– Capital Market Profile– Spatial Market Analysis: Macro and Micro
• Preliminary Analysis and Identification of Alternatives– Spatial Considerations– Financial Considerations
• Use Filtering and Selection of Most Likely Candidate– Goodness-of-fit criterion– Satisfaction of Client Goals
• Refinement of Alternative and Verification of Use– Product Specification– Risk Management and Due Diligence
• Implementation, Monitoring and Feedback
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.The Definition of Real Estate
Space-time
Money-time
Artificially delineated space over time with a fixed reference point to the earth…
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.
Dimensionality of Real Estate
What are the three key dimensions of Real Estate?
Linkages
Environment
Static
S…. E….. L ….
S…. E…. L….
For more info on using in Feasibility Studies, see Case 4: http://jrdelisle.com/cases_tutorials/
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.
Three Major Attributes of Real EstateThree major attributes of real
estate . . .
– L,– L,– L.
LL
L
. . . . . . . ulnerable,
. . . . . . . ulnerable,
. . . . . . . ulnerable.The 2009 regime of real estate . . .
– D– D– D
. . . . . . . istressed, . . . . . . . istressed, . . . . . . . istressed.
Three major attributes of real estate . . .
– L,– L,– L.
The 2010 + regime of real estate . . .
Liability, Litigation, Liquidity (NOT!)
L, L, L
Butt, what the “L”?
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.Types of Real Estate Feasibility Problems
• Site in search of a use– Profile site– Identify alternative uses and users– Match most probable user to site
• Use in search of a site– Profile user and establish real estate needs– Identify alternative sites– Match site to user
• Investor in search of involvement– Profile investor– Establish investment criteria– Identify alternatives– Match investor to alternatives
For more background, see Graaskamp: A Holistic Perspective at http://jrdelisle.com/research/
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.Site in search of a use
• Site in search of a use– Profile site– Identify alternative uses and users– Match most probable user to site
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.Use in search of a site
• Use in search of a site– Profile user and establish real estate needs– Identify alternative sites– Match site to user
Classify User: Assess Needs
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.Investor in search of involvement
• Investor in search of involvement– Profile investor– Establish investment criteria– Identify alternatives– Match investor to alternatives
0
100
200
300
400
500
'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
Private Investors
REITs
Pension Funds
Foreign InvestorsPublic Untraded FundsLife Insurers
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.
Ten Steps to Feasibility Site in Search of Use
1. Problem Statement2. Situational Analysis3. Legal-Political-Ethical4. Physical-technical5. Dynamic Location Attributes6. Market Trends and Needs7. Market Analysis8. Alternative Site Specification9. Alternative Site Analysis10. Project Strategy and Profile
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.
A Definition of Feasibility
A real estate project is “feasible” when the real estate analyst determines that there is a reasonable likelihood of satisfying explicit objectives when a selected course of action is tested for fit to a context of specific constraints and limited resources.
James A. Graaskamp
For more background, see Graaskamp on Real Estate
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.
Project: Process Overview
Real Estate Process
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.Project Outline: Market Overview
• Macro-economic Situation– General economy and implication– Real Estate capital markets and capital flows
• Regional/Local Market– Overall state of economy and implications– Real estate market overview; cycle stage, conditions…. – Regulatory environment; political mindset– Growth and trends
• Market structure; overview• Major public projects of note (e.g., light rail, bridges)
Real Estate Process
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.Project Outline: Static Attributes
• A. Site Profile• Size, shape, topography• Utilities and infrastructure• B. Existing Improvements• C. Ingress/Egress• Existing and potential• Pedestrian circulation• D. Legal Profile• Ownership• Easements, if any• E. Controlling legal/political attributes• Zoning, Land Use Controls, Incentives…• Private Restrictions• Other Constituencies (e.g., neighborhood, environmental, planning,
political)• F. Implications
Real Estate Process
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.Project Outline: Alternative Uses
• Identification of alternative uses– General statement– Preliminary specifications– General Building Envelopes– TRC, FD/BD Analysis– Site allocation
• Filtering analysis: Evaluation of Alternative Uses– Goodness-of-fit– Stress Tests/Trade-offs
• Market• Legal/Political
Physical• Financial• Recommended Use
– Most likely use (s)– Development Strategy
Real Estate Process
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.Project Outline: Financial Analysis
• General parameters• Frontdoor/Backdoor• Discounted Cash Flow• Sources of capital• Risk/Return Analysis• Project timing
Real Estate Process
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.Project Outline: Neighborhood and Market
Delineation• Identify primary trade area; subareas• General Condition• Role in market; positioning Static/Structural Perspective
Land usesPhysical: age, conditionTenant mix: who’s in, who’s not
Strategic linkages• Existing and proposed transit• Pedestrian routes; volumesDynamic/Successional Perspective• Life cycle stage• Trends• Synergies Implications of Neighborhood/Submarket Analysis
Real Estate Process
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.Proposed Design
• Site Plan– Ingress/Egress/Parking– Building Package/Design– Elevations….
• Conclusion
Construction Costs per RSMeans
Project Name: Eric's Project Name: University District
Description: Apartments, Low Rise
Description: Retail Stores
Location: SEATTLE, WA Location: SEATTLE, WA 82.28571Size: 56,000 gross
square feet $62.14Size: 11,200 gross
square feet
COST BREAKDOWN Low Median High COST BREAKDOWN Low Median HighTotal Project Cost $2,761,000 $3,480,000 $4,659,000 Total Project Cost $542,000 $731,000 $963,000 Site work [Find products] $247,000 $345,000 $546,000 Plumbing [Find products] $19,000 $32,000 $56,000 Masonry [Find products] $54,000 $134,000 $219,000 HVAC [Find products] $42,000 $58,000 $87,000 Finishes [Find products] $290,000 $396,000 $497,000 Electrical [Find products] $48,000 $68,000 $96,000
Equipment [Find products] $89,000 $132,000 $200,000 Total Mechanical and Electrical $130,000 $167,000 $225,000
Plumbing [Find products] $212,000 $280,000 $350,000 HVAC [Find products] $136,000 $168,000 $247,000
Electrical [Find products] $159,000 $208,000 $284,000 Total Mechanical and Electrical $552,000 $701,000 $874,000 Per-Unit Cost $45,000 $68,000 $102,000 Per Unit Mechanical and Electrical $8,000 $13,000 $17,000
RSMeans® Preliminary Cost EstimateRSMeans® Preliminary Cost Estimate
BackDoor JustifiedBackdoor Step 4: Final TRCj Calculation
TRCj = (Gim * NIR)Wcc
=84,083*73.5%0.005642312
10,953,168$
Frontdoor/ Backdoor Reconciliation
Approach TRC Rent/sfFrontdoor Budget 10,897,719$ 12.90 Backdoor Justified 10,953,168$ 12.97 Gap to Rationalize -0.51%
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.Step 1: Problem Statement
• Strategic Overview• Nature of Decision• Goals and Objectives• Business Considerations• Constraints• Scope of Analysis
– Inclusive vs. exclusive approach– Dynamic vs. static approach– Stochastic vs. deterministic
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.
Context: Problem Statement
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.
Investor Profiles
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.Step 2: Situational Analysis
• Strategic Overview– Macro-economic Environment– Capital Market Environment– Spatial Environment– Space User Environment
• Preliminary Site Assessment– Situational Analysis: The Context– Positional Analysis
• Context in which it fits/operates• Draws on Structure, Succession and Situs Theory
– Opportunity Analysis: What it could be?
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.
Situational Overview
LOCATION:• Portage Bay
U-District• Brooklyn Ave NE and NE
Boat St• UW Campus north of site• Water to South
ZONING:• IC-45-US zone• 179,567 sf lot• 50,200 sf max over land• 39,584 sf max over water
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.
Competitive Analysis
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.Step 3: SEL-Physical/Technical Context
Static Attributes
• Size and shape• Topography• Drainage, water• Soils and subsoils• Utilities• Ingress/Egress
Dynamic Attributes
• Functional layout• Orientation• Scale & texture• Comfort• Security• Nuisances/Environmental Issues
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.
Static and Environmental Attributes
Jones ◊ Rappe ◊ Chang Consulting, LLC
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.
Environmental Attributes
2006 Team B1
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.
Dynamic Location Attributes
• Geographic Location– Orientation– Linkages– Tributary analysis: connection
• Transportation Access– Mode– Physical Access: Walkability– Travel anxiety or aggravation
• Exposure– Visual– Ingress/egress
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.
23
Location and General Linkages
Site
Site
South Lake Union
Fremont
Jones ◊ Rappe ◊ Chang Consulting, LLC
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.Linkages and Connectivity
• Easy vehicle, bus, bicycle access to University District via Eastlake Ave E.• Easy vehicle, bus, bicycle access to Downtown, Capitol Hill, S. Lake Union, Queen Anne.• Eastlake Ave: heavy traffic commuting between Downtown and U. District. 30,000 vehicle trips/day.
University Village
University of Washington
UW Med Center/Husky Stadium
Project Site
Downtown Seattle
Project Site
Capitol Hill
S. Lake Union
Queen Anne
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.
Micro-Linkages: Ingress/Egress
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.Step 4: Legal-Political-Ethical Constraints
• Legal-Political-Ethical Tie– Constraints by law: Legal
• Site constraints• Enterprise constraints (users)
– Constraints by Market• Capital Market & Investor Constraints• Community constraints
– Ethical/Political Constraints• Sustainability and the irretrievable resource commitment• Goodness of Fit
• Dynamic Nature– Many constraints are subject to change/negotiation– Final binding constraints involve trade-offs of legal/political/ethical
For more info on implications, see: Case 1: Building Envelope Calculations.
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.
Parcel Data Search
http://www.metrokc.gov/gis/Mapportal/iMAP_main.htm#
For info on parcel data, see: Tutorial 2: Parcel Tutorial.
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.
Change Rationale: Zoning, Traffic
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.Step 6: Trade Area Delineation
• Micro: Region/City/Sub-market– Spatial trends
• Community or regional growth, spatial skewing, scale and timing• Structure: Sub-market relationship to broader economic base
– Economic Base • Employment: composition, drivers, growth• Elasticity: sensitivity of growth to economic conditions
• Market Segments– Current Market Segments– Projected Growth by Market Segment
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.
Trade Area Delineation: Rings are Out
Is this the Trade Area?
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.
Trade Area Delineation
5 Minute drive
15 Minute drive
10 Minute drive
SITE
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.
Step 7: Competitive Market & Demographics
• Competitive Analysis– Supply– Mix/Pricing
• Market trends and opportunity areas– Aggregate data on local population, employment, income, etc.– Industry trends relevant to the project– Significant popular attitudes and trends in location market
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.
Delineate/Analyze Customized Area
To develop customized trade areas, see: Tutorial 4(b): STDBonline. or Business Analyst Online
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.
Competitive Analysis
To learn how to identify competitors and land uses, see: Tutorial 3: Reverse Directory.
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.
Market Analysis and Synergy
2006 Team F
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.Step 8: Alternative Uses/Users’ Profiles
• Identify Preliminary Uses– Major property types: retail, office, warehouse– Secondary Property sub-types
• Profile preliminary users– Internal Analysis
• Entities & packets of functions• Drivers of Value• Trends & Life cycle stage
– Real Estate Elements• Spatial needs & internal vs. external orientation• Approach to real estate solutions
For a guide to free demographic data, see: Tutorial 4(a): Easi-Demographics.
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.
Target Market
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.
Target Market Analyis
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.
In the End, It’s All About the Numbers
2006 Team E2
For more info on making numbers “easy to crunch,” see: Case 3: Frontdoor/Backdoor Analysis.
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.
Step 9: Alternative Uses and Scenarios
For more info, see: The Interactive Design-Marketing Model in Determining Highest and Best Use
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.
Design Concepts
2006 Team A2
2006 Team C1
2006 Team B1
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.
Alternative Use: Numbers and More Numbers
2006 Team C1
To get your costs in line, see: Case 2: Total Replacement Cost Analysis.
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.
Most Fitting Use: An Integrated Approach
For more info, see: Case 6: Most Fitting Use.
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.
Alternative Use Recommendation
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.
Step 10: Final Use Specification & Packaging
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.
Final Design and Financials
For info on fine-tuning DCF, see: Case 5: Discounted Cash Flow Analysis.
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.Implementation Timeline, Risk Mgmt. and Marketing
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Real Estate Market Analysis
© JR DeLisle, Ph. D.
Exit Strategy and Conclusion