an interim review of residential land availability and building/r... · an interim review of...
TRANSCRIPT
_________________________________________
An Interim Review
of
Residential Land Availability (8/30)
PLANNING AND ENVIRONMENT DEPARTMENT
February 2010
1
2
FOREWORD
This is an interim report on the housing land availability situation in the Island. It
looks to identify and quantify the likely supply of new housing over the next five
years or so and measure potential performance in meeting estimated housing
requirements. For this purpose, identified housing supply is compared with estimated
housing requirements derived from the latest „Housing Needs Survey‟ (2007) and the
Draft Island Plan. The Housing Needs Survey requirement estimates are based on
expressed housing aspirations and the Draft Island Plan estimates are based on
analysis of population projections and potential household formation. It is important
to note that the Housing Needs Survey was carried out in late 2007 and pre-dates the
recent economic difficulties, which have doubtless altered the realistic purchasing
potential of many aspiring buyers. These are likely to balance out over the lifetime of
the new Island Plan, and the five year projections of need have been adjusted
accordingly.
The primary reasons for preparing and releasing this report now, are to inform the
Island Plan Review Process and help ensure that the amount of supply derived from
the housing policies and proposals in the Draft Island Plan are sufficient to maintain a
five year supply.
Clearly, it will be important to ensure that the housing situation is kept under close
scrutiny, and this will be done in future as part of the planned annual monitoring for
the new Island Plan and through the development of the „Affordable Housing
Gateway‟. The Gateway was promoted as part of the Jersey Homebuy scheme and is
now to be adopted as the single access point for all affordable housing (both housing
to rent and to buy) as a key activity under Aim 14 of the States Strategic Plan. In the
meantime, data on housing completions during 2009 will be released shortly along
with an up-date on outstanding housing commitments.
The next Housing Needs Survey is not scheduled until the end of 2011 at the earliest,
but, in the interim, the Statistics Unit has used data from the 2009 Annual Social
Survey (JASS) to up-date some of the findings of the 2007 survey. However, a more
complete picture of the Island‟s housing situation will emerge as part of the next
Island-wide Census, which is planned for 2011.
Based on the information currently available, the housing land availability situation is
reasonably encouraging. In overall terms, the potential supply of new homes in the
qualified sector significantly exceeds identified requirements. However, this report
does reveal that requirements for Category A homes and notably first-time buyer
homes in the next 5 years or so are only likely to be met if those sites zoned for
residential development in 2008 (P75.2008) are actually developed and there is an
acceptance of certain assumptions underpinning demand estimates included in the
draft Island Plan.
It is of concern that progress with the land zoned as part of P75.2008 has, to-date been
relatively slow. However, as of February 2010 three sites have planning permission
and three are the subject of planning applications which are still pending.
Preliminary advice has been offered on another site and only one site has not
advanced significantly.
3
For the purposes of the draft Island Plan, previously identified latent demand for new
homes has been divided equally between the first and second five year Plan periods.
This reflects constraints on home ownership aspirations resulting from the prevailing
economic circumstances, including affordability issues and constraints on mortgage
finance. The full effects of the recession may not yet have been felt locally, but
restricted lending and reduced economic activity could lead to requirements to
increase the provision of social housing and provide more innovative affordable
housing schemes such as Jersey Homebuy.
This report serves to highlight the reliance being placed on sites proposed for
rezoning for Category A housing purposes in Policy H1 of the draft Island Plan, in
order to meet requirements for Category A and affordable homes in the first five years
of the Plan.
The Ministers for Housing and Planning and Environment have, on numerous
occasions, expressed their determination to ensure the community‟s housing needs are
properly addressed. This calls for regular monitoring and assessment of the housing
situation and perseverance with efforts to ensure the delivery of adequate housing in
the right place and at the right time.
Planning and Environment Department
4
CONTENTS
Page No.
FOREWORD
2
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS
7
1.
INTRODUCTION
14
2.
POLICY CONTEXT
15
2.1 Population Strategy 15
2.2 Strategic Policy 16
2.3 Housing Policy 17
2.4 Monitoring and Regulation of Migration 19
2.5 Land Use Planning Policy 20
3.
ASSESSMENT OF HOUSING REQUIREMENTS
21
3.1 Housing Needs Survey 21
3.2 Key Findings of 2007 Housing Needs Survey 22
3.3 Requirements for Homes based on Alternative Future Scenarios 22
3.4 Alternative Assessment of Housing Demand 27
3.5 Required Building Rates 27
3.6 Requirements by Type and Size – Qualified Sector 28
3.7 Category A Requirements 29
3.8 Requirements for Older Persons‟ Housing 31
4.
OTHER INFORMATION SOURCES ON HOUSING DEMAND
34
4.1 House Prices 34
4.2 Affordability 39
4.3 Key Workers 41
4.4 Private Sector Rents 43
4.5 States Rental Waiting List 43
4.6 An Industry View of the Private Sector Property Market 48
5.
ISLAND PLAN PROPOSALS FOR MEETING HOUSING
REQUIREMENTS / TARGETS
52
5.1 Qualified Sector 52
5.2 Unqualified Sector 52
6.
SUPPLY
53
6.1 Completion Rates in the Qualified Sector 53
6.2 Outstanding Commitments in the Qualified Sector 55
6.3 Outstanding Commitments for Older Persons‟ Housing 58
6.4 Completions and Outstanding Commitments in Unqualified Sector 58
7.
COMPARING KNOWN HOUSING SUPPLY WITH REQUIREMENTS
FOR HOMES
60
7.1 Qualified Sector 60
7.2 Unqualified Sector 69
5
Tables
1. Estimated Overall Requirements for New Homes, 2008 – 2012, under various
alternative future scenarios
23
2 -7 Requirements for New Homes, 2008 – 2012, (including Surplus/Shortfall) by
Tenure and Size, under various alternative scenarios
24-26
8. Total Demand for Housing over Period 2009-2018, as set out in Draft Island Plan 27
9. Average Building Rates Required for New Homes, based on Alternative
Assessments of Housing Demand
28
10. Realistic Aspiration for New Homes by Homes and Flats in the Qualified Sector,
2008-2012, based on „Nil Net Migration‟ and the old „12 Year Rule‟.
28
11. Estimated Shortfalls of Houses and Flats in the Qualified Sector, 2008-2012,
based on Net Inward Migration of +150 Households per Year and „11Year Rule‟
29
12. Estimated Shortfalls of Houses and Flats in the Qualified Sector, 2008-2012,
based on Net Inward Migration of +150 Households per Year and Reduction to
10 Year Qualification.
29
13. Comparison of 5-Year Demand for First-Time Buyer Homes with Total Demand
for Owner-Occupier Accommodation
30
14. Estimated First-Time Buyer and Category A Requirements, as a Proportion of
Overall Requirements in the Qualified Sector, 2008-2012
31
15. 5-Year Demand for Older Persons‟ Housing (supply-demand), by Tenure and
Size
32
16. Mix-Adjusted Average Dwelling Price and the Jersey House Price Index, since
start 2002
35
17. Mean Prices for Individual Property Types 36
18. Social Housing Stock in Jersey, by Landlord Type and Bed Size, end 2009 43
19. Composition of States Rental Stock, 2007 44
20. States Rental Waiting List, start 2004 to end 2009 46
21. Supply of Homes provided for in the Draft 2009 Island Plan, 2009-2013 52
22. Housing Completions in the Qualified Sector 53
23. Net Completions of New Homes in the Qualified Sector, by Parish, 2002 – end
2008
54
24. Completions of New Homes in Qualified Sector, by Type and Size, 2008 55
25. Outstanding Commitments for New Homes in Qualified Sector, at end 2008 56
26. Housing Commitments for New Homes in Qualified Sector, by Parish, @ end
2008
57
27. Outstanding Commitments for New Homes in the Qualified Sector, by Type and
Size, @ end 2008
58
28. Outstanding Commitments for Older Persons‟ Homes @ end 2008 58
29. Comparison between Overall Estimated Requirements for New Homes, 2008 –
2012 and Supply
61
30. Comparison of Estimated Requirements for New Homes, 2009-2013 and Supply 63
31. Comparison of Estimated Requirements and Supply Commitments in the
Qualified Sector, by Size and Type of Units, 2008-2012
64
32. Comparison of Estimated Requirements and Supply Commitments for Owner-
Occupied Homes, by Size and Type of Units, 2008-2012
65
33. Comparison of Estimated Requirements and Supply Commitments for Social
Rented Homes, by Size and Type of Units, 2008-2012
66
Figures
1. Summary of States Housing Waiting and Transfer List, Bed Size Need, 2004-
2009
33
2. Jersey House Price Index 35
3. Age Profile of Nursing Staff Employed by Health and Social Services in Jersey 42
4. States Rental Waiting and Transfer List (at year end), 1989 to 2009 45
6
APPENDICES
1. Schedule of Social Rented Housing Completions, since approval of Jersey Island
Plan 2002
70
2. Schedule of Purpose-Built First-Time Buyer Housing Completions, since
approval of Jersey Island Plan 2002
73
3. Schedule of Social Rented Housing Property Sales on the Open Market, by Type,
2004-2008
75
4. Schedule of Social Rented Housing Property Sales to Social Rented Tenants (as
First-Time Buyers), by Type, 2007 and 2008
76
5. Schedule of Known Completions due for Social Rented Housing, by Type, 2009
to end 2012
76
6. Schedule of Known Completions due for First-Time Buyer Housing, by Type,
2009 to end 2012
78
7. Schedule of Known Completions due for Open Market Lifelong Homes, by Type,
2009 to end 2012
79
8. Schedule of Known Completions due for Social Rented Lifelong Homes, by
Type, 2009 to end 2012
79
9. Schedule of Projected Sales of Housing Property to First-Time Buyers, by Type,
2009 to end 2012
80
10. Schedule of Projected Sales of Housing‟s Social Rented Property on the Open
Market, by Type, 2009 to end 2012
81
11. Status of Zoned Category A Sites @ February 2010 82
7
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS
Balancing identified requirements for new homes with a practical land availability supply
position is a complex problem, which the planning process must deal with. To this end, it is
important that the States continues to maintain and develop increasingly accurate and up-to-
date estimates of housing requirements and records of housing land availability. Such
information is critical to inform and underpin future decisions on planning and housing
policy. This report presents the findings of the latest in a series of residential land availability
reviews undertaken since the adoption of the Island Plan in July 2002 and has been prepared
in consultation with the Housing Department, the Population Office and the Statistics Unit.
The main aims are:
To establish the facts about the amount of land available for home-building over the
next 5 years or so; and
To find out whether enough land is available to meet identified housing requirements
for the period, including those put forward in the draft 2009 Island Plan.
In effect, this review offers a snapshot of the statistical position from the start of 2009,
although it does take into account relevant subsequent events.
The latest „Housing Needs Survey‟ (2007), provides the primary source of information on
housing requirements. This comprehensive survey provides estimates of requirements for
new homes, covering the period 2008 to 2012, based on the expressed housing aspirations of
existing householders.1 The other source of information on housing requirements is the draft
Island Plan. This identifies a five year requirement for new homes covering the period 2009
to 2013, which is based on an analysis of population projections and calculations of future
household formation. The information from both sources has regard to the States policies
relating to controlled net in-migration (i.e. average of +150 households per year).
The dramatic changes in economic conditions that have occurred since the 2007 Housing
Needs Survey are likely to have an impact on the estimated housing requirements included in
the survey report. For instance, one might expect that identified requirements for owner
occupied homes will have been stifled for the time being, with many potential purchasers
having to remain in the private rental sector. With this in mind, the Statistics Unit included a
number of questions on housing supply and demand in the latest 2009 Jersey Annual Social
Survey (JASS 2009).2 Although a new Housing Needs Survey is unlikely to be undertaken
until the end of 2011 at the earliest, the Unit has used the new housing information from
JASS 2009 to up-date some of the findings of the 2007 Housing Needs Survey. In particular,
this suggests that the potential demand for owner-occupied 2- and 3-bedroom properties
remains greater than the potential supply.
The main findings of this review are summarised as follows:
Overall Requirements
Based on the 2007 Housing Needs Survey, the estimated requirements for new homes
in the „qualified sector‟ for the period 2008 -2012, range from 2,600 homes under the
„11-Year Rule‟ to 2,700 homes if the housing qualification period is reduced to 10
years.
The equivalent identified requirements in the „non qualified sector‟ are very low and
range from 75 to 45 homes respectively.
1 This included a survey 4,500 households in States rental accommodation and a random sample of
5,500 households in all other tenures and the response rate was 55%. 2 Around 3,300 households were selected at random to complete the survey, to be filled in the
household member who next celebrated their birthday. Again the response rate was high, at over 54%.
8
The draft Island Plan estimates a requirement for 2,000 homes in the first 5 years of
the Plan (2009-2013). The difference between these estimates and those derived from
the 2007 Housing Needs Survey, can be largely explained by a decision to only
include half of the identified latent demand for new homes in the first 5 years of the
Plan (bearing in mind the potential constraints on first-time buyers in the current
economic circumstances).
Required Annual Building Rates
The estimated demand for homes based on the 2007 Housing Needs Survey requires
an average annual building rate of 520 to 540 homes between 2008 and 2012.
The estimated demand for homes in the draft Island Plan would only require an
average building rate of 400 homes per year between 2009 and 2013.
These required building rates compare favourably with average building rates
achieved since the approval of the current Island Plan in 2002 (584 homes per year).
Supply Commitments
At the start of 2009, there were good levels of outstanding commitments for new
homes, which numbered in excess of 2,200 homes. These comprised sites allocated in
the Island Plan and the Island Plan Review and/or sites with planning or building
permission.
Over half the outstanding commitments for new homes (1,200 homes) were under
construction at the start of 2009.
Of the outstanding commitments, about 30% (670 homes) were Category A and 70%
(1,570 homes) were Category B.
Most of the supply commitments are concentrated in the main urban parishes,
including St. Helier (44%) and St. Saviour (11%) and also St. Brelade (10%), which
includes the substantial urban settlement of „Les Quennevais/Red Houses‟.
Other Proposed Supply Sources
The draft Island Plan identifies a number of supply sources for meeting demand in the
next 5 years. From these, it is estimated that the residual yields not accounted for by
supply commitments could amount to over 900 homes. This includes: the Town of
St. Helier (about 540 homes); windfall developments elsewhere (about 150 homes);
Rural Centre development based on draft Island Plan Policy H5 (about 25 homes);
and proposed Category A housing sites in the draft Island Plan (about 200 homes).
Current Market Position
Local estate agents have pointed to a period of uncertainty and static prices in the
local housing market over the last year or so with a considerable fall off in property
transactions. This is largely put down to a loss of confidence among potential buyers
and constraints on mortgage lending, following the credit crunch and the downturn in
the local economy.
This change in circumstances is born out by data from the „House Price Index‟.
Home purchases made in the third quarter of 2009 were more than a third below the
long term average prior to mid-2008. Also the average price of dwellings sold in the
third quarter of 2009 (£497,000) was essentially the same as that recorded over the
preceding four quarters and also in the first six months of 2009.
Overall Land Availability Position
In overall terms, the current housing land availability situation for the period to the
end of 2012 / 2013 remains reasonably healthy.
In the „qualified sector‟, housing completions and potential yields from known
outstanding commitments (excluding Category B consents that had yet to commence
at the start of 2009) and other identified supply sources, significantly exceed
9
identified requirements based on the 2007 Housing Needs Survey for the period 2008
to 2012 (i.e. by 400 to 500 homes). Identified supply in the „qualified sector‟ also has
the potential to exceed the identified overall requirements in the draft Island Plan for
the period 2009 to 2013, by over 1,100 homes. This, however, masks some specific
areas of imbalance.
Category A Position
The evidence suggests that the outstanding commitments and other identified sources
for the supply of Category A homes (including sites zoned for residential purposes in
2008) will comfortably match overall potential requirements identified in the draft
Island Plan to the end of 2013, and could potentially exceed the target by about 300
homes. This position is helped by the decision to carry forward half the previously
identified latent demand for homes to the second five year period of the draft Plan
(2014-2018).
The identified supply of Category A homes is not sufficient, however, to meet
estimated requirements up to the end of 2012 based on the 2007 Housing Needs
Survey (i.e. a potential shortfall of between 170 and 230 homes). However, this
would not be problematic if, as in the draft Island Plan, there is an acceptance that the
identified requirements are overstated, because the challenging economic conditions
which now prevail have rendered many previously expressed aspirations for home
ownership unrealistic.
In her recently published report „A Review of Social Housing in Jersey‟, Professor
Christine Whitehead OBE, concludes that these estimates take account of
affordability only to the extent that households themselves have realistic expectations
about their capacity to purchase their own homes. However, the evidence on who is
in the private rented sector suggests that these may well not be realistic at least under
present conditions. Although there are a proportion of younger people who are living
in the private rented sector as a transition to owner occupation, a proportion may not
be able to afford to buy without some assistance and so renting without assistance
could be a life long tenure.
Social rented
Assessing the level of need for new social rented homes is difficult considering the
number of agencies providing Social Housing and the fact that they all operate their
own waiting lists, have differing eligibility criteria and allocation rules. The system
is generally uncoordinated and does little to ensure that the existing social rented
stock is used to best effect. Nor does it allow ready assessment of need as there is no
one complete list of prospective tenants seeking to be housed.
For some time the Housing and Planning Departments have highlighted this as a
problem and one which stifles effective policy development and planning decisions.
The Departments have promoted the creation of a „Gateway‟ for all affordable
housing to ensure that existing and future stock is targeted to deliver maximum
benefit. This has been set as a key objective of Aim 14 of the States Strategic Plan.
The Gateway would bring together the application, means testing and waiting list
processes from all of the disparate social housing providers. In this way there would
at least be consistency across the piece regarding who can access social housing. As
the „Gateway‟ would be the single access point for all affordable housing (affordable
housing to buy as well as to rent) there would always be a up to date list of those
requiring affordable housing, their circumstances and financial means that would
allow planners and policy makers access to good robust data.
Under the „Social Housing Property Plan‟, 2007-2016, it is planned to change the mix
of the State‟s rental stock to reflect the changing need of an increasingly aging
population. The planned sale of homes to tenants is also intended to help satisfy
pent-up demand for home ownership. The sales are restricted to existing States rental
10
tenants or the tenants of Housing Trusts who were previously States rental tenants.
There is statistical evidence that social renters do not become home owners other than
with significant assistance usually in the form of a discount, a view reinforced by
Professor Whitehead.
The 2007 Housing Needs Survey identifies relatively small estimated demand for
new social rented homes up to 2012 (65-75no. 2- and 3-bedroom homes), which is
reflected in continuing low States Rental Waiting List numbers (i.e. at the start of
2009 there were 300 families and individuals on the list compared to a peak
registration of 900 in 1989). However, those currently on the List represent the most
chronic need and the majority are older persons.
In Professor Whitehead‟s report, she concludes that the low demand is a direct
outcome of the current strict allocations rules. Based on evidence regarding incomes
and housing circumstances, she argues that there may be considerable unmet housing
needs among lower income working age but childless households who are currently
ineligible for social housing, as well as among those with incomes just under the
eligibility criterion for social housing.
The proposals in the Whitehead report on possible ways to reorganise States housing
have yet to be fully reviewed and debated and there remains some uncertainty about
the future policy direction of the States. The States will need to decide whether it
wants a social rented sector which will have to be larger and have much wider
allocations criteria, or whether it wants social housing to focus only on those in the
most chronic need.
In the interim, it is clear that the current identified needs (based on the existing very
restricted eligibility criteria) up to 2013 can be met by existing commitments (324
homes).
First-time buyer
Calculations based on the 2007 Housing Needs Survey indicate an estimated
requirement for between 1,265 and 1,320 first-time buyer homes for the period 2008-
2012. For the purposes of the draft Island Plan, these requirements are effectively
reduced by 500 homes for the period 2009-2013, because of the decision to only
include half the identified latent demand for new first-time buyer homes in the first
five year of the Plan (i.e. 765-820 homes).
The supply of first-time buyer homes from completions and outstanding
commitments (including sales of social rented stock) amounts to around 500 new
homes. In addition there is an anticipated yield of around 350 first-time buyer homes
from other sources of supply identified in the draft Island Plan, including the Town of
St. Helier (75 homes), windfall site elsewhere (50 homes), rural centres (25 homes)
and sites proposed for rezoning (200 homes).
The evidence points to a significant shortfall in the provision for first-time buyer
homes, against identified requirements, using calculations based on the 2007 Housing
Needs Survey. Supply will only be in balance with identified requirements up to the
end of 2012/13, if there is acceptance of the assumptions in the draft Island Plan
regarding latent demand for first-time buyer homes.
Assumptions on Supply of Category A Homes
The conclusions reached with regard to Category A land availability are reliant to
varying degrees on a number of underlying supply assumptions:
- All the sites zoned for Lifelong Homes and First-time Buyer Homes in
P.75/2008 will come forward for development (300 homes). In some
instances this will require renewed urgency to ensure delivery within the
required timeframe;3
3 The current status of these Category A sites is set out in Appendix 11.
11
- All the sites proposed for rezoning for Category A housing purposes in the
draft Island Plan will be approved and developed (200 homes);4
- In addition to known commitments, there will be further supply of Category
A homes from town regeneration developments and windfall developments
elsewhere (approx. 80 homes).
Category B Position
The supply from completions, outstanding commitments and other identified supply
sources is more than enough to meet identified requirements.
Size of Homes
This report includes a comparison between estimated requirements for new houses
and flats of different sizes (based on the aspirations in the 2007 Housing Needs
Survey) with known completions and commitments. The evidence points to:
- a proportionate over-provision of flats (55% compared to 35% of identified
demand);
- a proportionate under-provision of houses (45% compared to 65% of
identified demand);
- a proportionate over-provision of 1-bedroom flats (23% compared to 5%
identified demand);
- a good match between the proportionate supply of and demand for 2-
bedroom flats;
- a good match between the proportionate supply of and demand for 3-
bedroom family houses;
- a large proportionate under-provision of 2-bedroom houses (11% compared
to 33% of identified demand).
Older Persons’ Housing
The „Housing Needs Survey‟ identifies a requirement for some 400 dwelling units for
older persons over the 5 years to 2012 and this is reflected in the „Social Housing
Property Plan‟, 2007-2016.
The evidence suggests that these requirements will be met by recent completions and
sales and by outstanding commitments. However, this will rely on recently zoned
sites for Lifelong Homes (approx. 180 homes) coming forward in a timely manner
and, as previously inferred, progress to-date appears to have been relatively slow.
This area will need to be kept under particularly careful scrutiny, because demand for
older persons‟ housing is likely to increase dramatically over the next 20 years as the
numbers of residents over working age soars.
Affordability
The lack of affordable homes for people on average incomes who have aspirations to
purchase their home has become a particularly serious issue in the last 3 years or so,
despite the recent stabilisation in house prices. This is due to a number of factors,
including soaring property prices in 2006, 2007 and 2008, and restrictive (post
„Credit Crunch‟) mortgage lending requirements.
Jersey remains one of the most expensive places in Europe to buy a home and in mid-
2009 the average price of a 3-bedroom house was the equivalent of 16.5 times
average annual earning for full-time workers. This compares unfavourably with
4 To optimise the use and development of land, in accord with proposed policies on „Efficient Use of
Resources‟ and „Density of Development‟, these site should be developed at their optimum densities,
which would provide up to 300 new homes. Achieving optimum density of development on rezoned
sites has, however, proved difficult to achieve in the past and, for the purposes of estimating the supply
of homes for these sites, a conservative yield of 200 homes is used.
12
multiples of 5 times income which have been the maximum generally available from
local mortgage lenders in the post „Credit Crunch‟ world.
It is important to recognise that Jersey is not alone with its affordability problem. A
publication in 2007 by the National Housing Federation entitled “Home Truths”
reported that the average house price in England was nearly 11 times average
earnings and in London it was 13 times average incomes.
Among the conclusions from a recent review of social housing in Jersey are that:
- only those in the two upper income quintiles (above £40,000 per annum) can
hope to buy a house as a family home; and
- younger households, single people and those on lower incomes cannot afford
to become owner occupiers and will have to rent, unless they have access to
significant savings or loans from parents or others.
There is a recognised need for more regular and in-depth information on the
requirement for affordable housing in Jersey, which may in future be met by a
properly regulated and unified housing waiting list. A more immediate solution
which has been promoted by the Housing and Planning Departments, and is set as a
key activity under Aim 14 of the new States Strategic Plan, is the creation of a
„gateway‟ for all affordable housing to ensure that existing and future stock is
targeted to deliver maximum benefit. The nature and key advantages of the gateway
are set out earlier under the „Social Rented‟ heading on page 9.
In the absence of such clear information, Kelvin MacDonald, the author of a recently
commissioned report entitled „Affordable Housing as a Proportion of Private Housing
Development‟, proposes as an interim working hypothesis that “the demand for
affordable homes might equate to the mid-point between the numbers on the first-time
buyers list and the latent demand demonstrated in the 2007 Housing Needs Survey
(i.e. about 900 affordable homes).”
The evidence suggests that the requirement for 900 affordable homes could be
matched by existing commitments and development opportunities set out in the draft
Island Plan (including proposals for intermediate housing under the Jersey Homebuy
Scheme), but only if one takes into account provision for social rented homes (about
320 homes). Meeting these requirements would also rely, to a significant degree, on
the rezoning of land proposed in Policy H1 of the draft Island Plan.
The draft Plan introduces a new policy proposal which is intended to directly address
future requirements for affordable homes. This would require a proportion of
residential development above a certain threshold to be affordable accommodation. It
is not anticipated that this new policy, if approved, would have any significant impact
on housing yield in the next 5 years to 2013 given the time-frame for the Island Plan
Review and the normal lead in times before dwellings can be completed on sites.
Clearly, the issue of supply and demand of affordable homes will remain a priority
for the States and must be kept under close scrutiny. Any unsustainable distortions in
the market must be properly addressed (e.g. through more affordable housing
initiatives), if the aspirations of a generation of would-be home owners are not to be
dashed and we are to avoid a growth in the numbers of people living in unsuitable
and difficult housing circumstances.
Key Workers in the Public Sector
The plight of public sector key workers in Jersey is an emerging issue, which is
inextricably linked with the affordability of homes available locally. The Island relies
heavily on key workers migrating to the Island to provide public services which are
vital to its continued success. In recent times it has been increasingly difficult to
retain and recruit such workers, most notably in the Health Service, because of
difficulties associated with access to suitable and affordable homes.
Information on this issue is limited at present and further work is necessary to
quantify key worker requirements. The States will also need to decide how it wishes
13
to address the matter. The Kelvin MacDonald report suggests there will be “…the
need to consider key worker housing both in terms of public sector subsidies to
workers and in terms of possible links between Jersey‟s migration policy and
affordable housing…”.
Non-Qualified Sector
The 2007 Housing Needs Survey pointed to there being significant surpluses
throughout the non-qualified housing sector by 2012 and very modest shortfalls (i.e.
between 45 and 75 homes). This situation was driven by over 600 non-qualified
households who would be gaining their residential qualifications and were intending
to move into the qualified sector.
It has proved more difficult to judge likely performance in the „non-qualified‟
housing sector, because of the paucity of reliable and quantifiable information on the
supply of homes.
However, from the information available (much of it anecdotal), it seems clear that
the market has been generally successful in meeting demand in this sector.
Undoubtedly, this success has been assisted, in no small measure, by the more
challenging economic circumstances that have faced the Island in recent years and the
associated reduction in demand.
There is no reason to believe that the market cannot continue to meet requirements in
this sector, aided by the careful implementation of recently approved migration
control mechanisms.
The draft Island Plan contains flexible policies which will continue to allow new
proposals to come forward in response to changes in demand, as part of the day-to-
day planning process.
14
1. INTRODUCTION
The States of Jersey is fully committed to ensuring that an adequate supply of suitable
housing is and will continue to be available to meet the existing and projected needs of the
community. This fundamental aim runs consistently through a range of States‟ policies,
including the Strategic Plan 2009-14, the Island Plan 2002, the draft Island Plan and other
policy documents. The importance of a decent home for every member of the community
both in terms of the individual‟s quality of life and the success of the economy is set out in
earlier land availability reports and is widely documented elsewhere.
This is the latest in a series of documents on the availability of residential land in Jersey. It
has been prepared jointly by the Planning and Building Services in consultation with the
Housing Department and includes information from the Statistics Unit, the Population Office
and representatives of those directly involved in the local housing market. In essence, the
document reviews the availability of land to meet identified potential housing requirements.
The primary purposes of this review are to:
establish the facts about the amount of available land for construction of housing in
the next five years or so;
determine whether a sufficient supply of suitable housing land is genuinely available
in practical terms, at all times, to satisfy the Island‟s identified requirements;
to help inform the housing policies and proposals in the draft Island Plan and
highlight any need for adaptation, to ensure they provide sufficient land and
opportunities for housing purposes in the right place at the right time; and
help inform service providers of the likely extent of new development, so they are
better able to make decisions on investment for the future provision of services.
This document responds primarily to the latest „2007 Housing Needs Survey‟ conducted by
the Statistics Unit and its assessment of potential housing requirements covering the period
2008-2012. Although economic circumstances have changed dramatically in the interim, the
2007 „Housing Needs Survey‟ is still regarded, for the time-being, as a reasonably accurate
indication of short-term housing demand levels. However, it is recognised that much of the
identified aspirational demand will be affected by issues relating to affordability and
restrictions on mortgage finance, which is likely to push back some of the identified demand
(particularly from prospective first-time buyers) beyond the original timeframe.
This document also specifically compares potential housing supply with identified
requirements for new homes (2009-2013) as set out in the draft 2009 Island Plan. These
requirements are based primarily on an analysis of population projections and potential new
household formation, to which is added a proportion of the latent housing demand identified
in the 2007 Housing Needs Survey.
Like the current 2002 Island Plan, the draft Island Plan generally looks to promote a balanced
approach to housing provision, which helps to ensure sufficient sustainable housing
development for the community‟s needs, whilst conserving and enhancing the quality of the
environment and protecting the amenities of existing residents. However, in pursuing these
aims, the draft Island Plan is looking to impose greater constraints on the options for
developments outside the built-up area boundaries and place greater emphasis on urban
regeneration. For this approach to be realistic and responsible, it must be based on the best
information available.
It is possible that this will be the last document of this type on residential land availability for
the foreseeable future. The likelihood is that housing land availability will be addressed in a
simplified form as part of a proposed comprehensive annual monitoring report on the
performance of planning policies, following the approval of the new Island Plan.
15
2. POLICY CONTEXT
2.1 Population Strategy The States of Jersey has recently been engaged with the public in an extensive exercise to
develop a strategy for managing the Island‟s future population, having regard to the changing
makeup of the population over the next thirty years and potential economic, social and
environmental impacts and challenges.
In common with many developed economies throughout Northern Europe, Jersey‟s
population is changing. The number of elderly people is growing rapidly, whilst there is a
continuous reduction of younger people of working age. As a consequence, in the long term,
if nothing is done to combat this, there will be fewer people paying tax and contributing to the
cost of running public services in health, education and social care. What is more, those
public services will cost the Island more, because of increasing demands on health and
pensions. In a small Island like Jersey this poses particularly difficult challenges and it is
clear that without agreement to change, Jersey will be unable to maintain its strong economy,
when it emerges from the current recession.
The States of Jersey has examined a range of broad options, including:
further growth in the economy;
raising the States pension age;
resident population pays more;
allowing more people to live in Jersey.
The work also involved examining the implications (including those for housing provision) of
a number of different future population migration scenarios over the next 30 years, ranging
widely from nil net migration, to a net immigration figure of +650 economically active heads
of household (+1,400 new residents) per year. In so doing, the States of Jersey sought to
establish the choices for Jersey and the trade-offs between economic growth, population
growth, inward migration and the impact on the environment.
Following extensive consultation exercises, the States of Jersey has adopted a strategy to
respond to and best manage the demographic shift in the Island‟s population. The strategy
allows for an average inward migration figure of +150 heads of households / annum (325
people), which is regarded as essential to:
safeguard and improve the life of the Island for the next three decades; and
maintain a good standard of living, health and wellbeing.
This level of controlled immigration, therefore, needs to be taken into account in determining
potential future housing demand.
The above process has, in turn, informed the development of the new Strategic Plan 2009-14
and, more specifically, the development of a new „Population Policy‟. Within the context set
by the new Strategic Plan 2009-14, the Population Policy proposed by the Council of
Ministers sets out to:
maintain the level of the working age population in the Island;
ensure the total population does not exceed 100,000;
ensure population levels do not increase continuously in the longer term;
protect the countryside and green fields;
maintain inward migration within a range between 150 and 200 heads of household
per annum in the long term;
in the short term, allow maximum inward migration at a rolling five year average of
no more than 150 heads of household per annum (an overall increase of c.325
people per annum). This would be reviewed and reset every three years.
16
2.2 Strategic Policy The States Strategic Plan is the vehicle used to provide the overarching corporate policy
direction for Jersey. It defines the aspirations of the Council of Ministers and provides the
guiding framework for the development of all States initiatives, policies and strategies.
In June 2006, the States approved a Strategic Plan which covered the 5-year period 2006 to
2011. That Plan set out a vision for Jersey‟s future and underpinned it with six
„commitments‟ to the people of Jersey relating to the economy, quality of life, social
inclusion, social justice, the environment and the Island‟s infrastructure. It also called for:
implementation of the Migration Policy;
access to high quality affordable housing; and
maintaining and improving public housing stock.
The most relevant commitment was „To promote a safe, just and equitable society, by
providing a good standard of accommodation for all‟, which was to be reflected by:
increased levels of home ownership;5
reduction in the number of people waiting to be adequately housed;
a supply of homes that better meets the Island‟s housing requirements;
equity in access to the housing market;
stable housing market / prices;
building standards that are equal to those in the UK;
increase in the percentage of homes in public ownership at „Decent Homes Standard‟;
and
increase in provision of Island-wide sheltered housing.
The current Strategic Plan 2009-14 sets out the Council of Ministers‟ priorities for the next 5
years, having regard to the present economic uncertainty, and the longer-term direction for the
future of the Island. As such, it provides the principle policy context for this review. The Plan
addresses the social, environmental and economic challenges that face the Island and focuses
on a number of key areas, which include inter alia:
meeting our health, housing and education challenges;
preparing for the ageing society; and
protecting the countryside and our environment.
One of the key priorities of the new Strategic Plan is to “adequately house the population”. In
support of this priority, the plan states:
“Housing in Jersey is an expensive commodity and there is good evidence of a pent up
demand for homes to purchase, particularly from first time buyers. In common with
other western societies our population is changing and by 2031 assessments are that
30% of our population will be above working age. Providing adequate homes to meet
the aspirations of both these groups is a significant challenge, but one which we must get
right if our population is to be adequately housed in the medium to long term.
Jersey has a good stock of social rented accommodation across a number of providers
which ensures a safety net for the most disadvantaged in society. Ensuring that the stock
is used to best effect would be a significant step towards seeing that all residents are
adequately housed.”
5 The proportion of owner occupiers in Jersey was recorded in the 2001 Census as 51% of households
and is low compared to many other European countries.
17
The stated reasons underpinning this priority and the intended actions of the States are set
below:
The Strategic Plan 2009 to 2014
Priority 14: ‘To adequately house the population’
Why we must do this: All Island residents should be housed adequately;
Older people need to be housed in accommodation which support the principles of „life time homes‟
and which adapt over time to allow independence to be maintained;
Changing demographics and migration may put pressure on certain types of accommodation;
If we want to meet the aspirations of Islanders to own their own homes, then homes must be made
affordable;
The social rented stock should be targeted at only those who need the support.
What we will do: Introduce schemes to encourage more home ownership (Housing);
Identify sufficient appropriate development sites, without further rezoning of green areas, for
housing in the Island Plan ensuring that the unit mix and tenure types meet prevailing demand
(P&E);
Improve equity, tenure rights and living standards for accommodation accessible to migrants
(Housing);
Support the development of affordable housing (P&E);
Define a new „Jersey Standard‟ for social rented accommodation (Housing);
Continue to upgrade and improve older social housing property to meet the new „Jersey Standard‟
(Housing);
Implement proposals for the regulation of all social housing providers including common waiting
lists and allocation criteria and improve regulation relating to the wider rental market (Housing).
Source: Strategic Plan 2009 to 2014.
2.3 Housing Policy The Housing (Jersey) Law, 1949 and its attendant regulations currently impose a very high
degree of government control over the demand for housing and effectively seek to protect
access to the housing market for those with full residency rights (i.e. 79% of the adult
population and 88% of private households at the time of the 2001 Jersey Census). Details of
the current housing regulations and policies are readily available elsewhere and a fuller
explanation of what has become known as the “two-tier housing system” was set out in
„Planning for Homes‟ 2004. The main changes to occur since the previous Planning for
Homes in 2006 have been the States‟ decisions to reduce the housing qualification period
from 13 years continuous residence in the Island to 12 years and, more recently, 11 years.
These were the latest in a series of such reductions over the last few years. The reduction to
12 years lowered the number of non-qualified adults from 15,300 in 2001 (21% of the
resident adult population) when the residency period was 19 years, to about 8,500 at the end
of 2007 (around 12% of the resident adult population).6 In proposing the latest reduction to
11 years the Housing Minister recognised that, in the prevailing economic climate, the effect
on the housing market would be slightly less certain than had been experienced following
previous reductions (P.45/2009), but the likelihood was that it would only have a marginal
impact on the housing market. In any event, the Minister‟s primary objective in proposing the
latest reduction was to achieve greater equity and fairness, and slow market conditions
facilitated the reduction. Indeed, the Housing Minister will likely recommend a further
reduction to 10 years in line with the States approved Migration Policy, subject to favourable
market conditions.
Strategic housing policies for the Island were previously set out in the former Housing
Committee‟s Strategic Policy Report, 2002-2006. Though now out of date, the long term
6 Source: Stats Unit report „Jersey‟s Resident Population‟, 2007.
18
goal contained in the report for “an Island where all residents have access to good standard,
secure and affordable homes” is now reflected the current States Strategic Plan 2009 – 2014.
The Housing Department‟s current aim, as set out in its 2009 Business Plan, is “to ensure
that long-term, sustainable and affordable housing is provided to meet the needs of all
residents.” Among its stated objectives for achieving this aim are the following:
Objective 1: Management of the Department‟s „Social Housing Property Plan
2007-2016‟;
Objective 2: Supply and demand for property assessed so that there is an adequate
supply of homes;
Objective 3: A fundamental review of social housing.
The Housing Department has particular responsibility for meeting the needs of locally
qualified individuals or families who are unable to house themselves in the private sector on
financial, medical or social grounds. To this end, it manages the existing stock of publicly-
owned housing, initiates the development of new housing where necessary and oversees the
waiting list for these homes. In her recent report, Professor Christine Whitehead concludes
that “the current structure is not fit for purpose. It cannot operate effectively; it cannot
manage its portfolio; and it cannot invest where required. An organisation more at arms
length needs to be put in place.”
Historically, the Housing Department has only maintained a rental waiting list for its own
4,600 properties to target those in most need. More recently, it has taken on responsibility
for developing the “Affordable Housing Gateway” which will enable it to maintain waiting
lists for those wanting all forms of affordable housing. In addition to the Social Rented
Stock across all providers, the waiting lists will cover conventional first-time buyer homes,
Jersey Homebuy homes and other forms of „intermediate‟ housing.
The Department‟s „Social Housing Property Plan‟, 2007-2016 was approved by the States in
July 2007. This Plan addresses the need to re-invest in the social housing stock to bring it up
to and maintain it in an acceptable condition (fit for purpose), whilst at the same time
changing the size and mix of the rental stock to reflect the changing needs of an increasingly
aging population and helping to satisfy pent-up demand for home ownership. The Plan
includes, among other things, the following actions:
Offering for sale on the open market certain „non-core, prime location‟ properties;7
Enabling States rental tenants to buy specified properties on a shared equity basis or
at full value (with first-time buyer conditions attached in perpetuity);
Putting the receipts from sales, initially, towards the a planned programme of
property refurbishment and regeneration of key high-rise developments;
Creating additional sheltered housing, through conversion of existing stock and
acquisition where appropriate; and
Putting a stop to the policy of transferring worn out social rented sites to Housing
Trusts.
The Property Plan proposes the sale of a number of States rental homes over a ten year
period. Importantly, it requires that all of the sales be to existing States Tenants or the
Tenants of Housing Trusts who were previously States Tenants. In that respect, the disposal
of those social rented units represents a change in tenure and has little or no effect on the
social rented waiting list. The Plan also makes it clear that the programme of sales will be
carried out in a managed, sustainable way, without imposing unnecessary strains on the
wider housing market, and related at all times to current levels of supply and demand within
social housing. It is considered essential that decisions on sales to the open market and to
7 The majority of these will have been sold by the end of 2010.
19
tenants should be balanced against delivery of new social rented housing and the needs
reflected in the States Rental Waiting List.
Once the backlog of major repairs and improvements to the States rental stock has been
completed, the Plan proposes to use the capital receipts from sales to either:
Invest to produce an income to support the housing revenue budget; or
Acquire an additional 400 Lifelong homes for the over 55‟s.
2.4 Monitoring and Regulation of Migration In June 2005, the States approved in principle a set of proposals for monitoring and regulating
the factors that govern migration (P25/2005). This will allow the States to effectively control
the size of the working population and in so doing, exercise greater control over the size and
make up of the Island‟s population. The approved strategy involves an overhaul of the
current regulations governing housing qualifications and aims to achieve greater fairness and
equity in housing, by allowing more people the chance to achieve a residency status. The
Migration Policy and its associate new legislation is meant to come into effect in 2011,
subject to States approval, and will replace the Regulation of Undertakings Law which
governs jobs and businesses, and the Housing Law which governs residential qualifications
and access to housing.
Population control
Under Part 1 of the Policy (published in 2007), all persons entering the Island will have to
register with the Population Office and this data can be used for any statutory purpose. Part 2
of the Policy (published in 2009) sets out in detail how people will qualify under various
categories. Among other things, it explains the new rules regarding property classifications
and how access to housing will be improved. There will effectively be three categories of
resident: entitled, licensed and registered-only (instead of the existing 14 categories), and
the implications for each category are summarised below.
Registration Category Access to Employment Access to Accommodation
Entitled Anyone who has lived here for a
total of 10 years (Equivalent to
all of those currently A to H
qualified)
Full access to any employment.
Entitled to set up a business.
Able to buy or lease any
property.
Licensed Those who are not locally
qualified for employment but
who are appointed to a job with
a Licensed status (Similar to the
current “j” category status)
Access to any licenced job or
registered-only employment.
Able to buy or lease any
property for duration of
employment (with certain
exceptions).
Registered-only All newcomers unless they are
already “entitled” or “licensed”.
Access only to registered-only
jobs (The same as the current
“non-local” jobs) as granted to
individual businesses.
Access to registered
accommodation (lodging house,
private lodgings, or staff
accommodation).
Inward migration will only be supported where it offers key skills or more opportunities for
local people in the workplace. The new control mechanisms will include issuing licences to
businesses defining the numbers of people that they can employ in the various resident
categories outlined above. These will be applied in the best interests of the community and,
in addition to the needs of the economy, will take into account the situation in relation to
housing and other infrastructure and resources.
20
As a result of the above changes, no new Licensed posts will be created with immediate
access to the Housing market. As a consequence, and given the housing qualification period
has already been reduced to 11 years, no impact on the overall levels of housing demand in
Jersey is expected due to the Migration Policy. Rather, the new system will be simpler, more
effective and also fairer (i.e. as a result of the reduction in qualification periods).
Property classification
Presently, individual properties are classified under the Housing Law by the imposition of
occupancy conditions, when transactions are made. The conditions imposed can be a-h (local
only), a-j (local and approved j cats) and Regulation 1 (all categories, including k). In future,
this will no longer be the case. The Migration Policy envisages that all property in future will
be identified as being either „Qualified‟, or „Registered‟. The Qualified sector will be
available for locals (entitled) and essential employees (licensed) and the Registered sector
will be available for the remainder (registered). Within the Qualified sector it is also
envisaged that properties will be ring fenced solely for first-time buyers, social rental and
other „affordable‟/need categories.
The Housing Minister proposes to make the above changes forthwith, following the close of
Part 2 consultation. No impact on the overall levels of housing demand in Jersey is expected
as a result of this change, although it may have some positive benefits for supply in terms of
incentives for developers.
2.5 Land Use Planning Policy The planning system has a crucial role to play in providing an adequate supply of land to meet
the housing requirements of the community. The policies set out in the Jersey Island Plan,
which is currently under review, are the primary mechanism governing the availability of land
for housing. These policies include the allocation of land specifically for housing purposes,
in addition to providing opportunities for private developments (i.e. through the normal
operation of the day-to-day planning process).
The draft Island Plan aims to ensure that sufficient land and opportunities are made available
for homes to meet the requirements of all Island residents over the Plan Period. To this end, it
seeks to ensure that there will be appropriate and suitably balanced provision for both need
housing (i.e. social rented, Jersey Homebuy, conventional first-time buyer and lifelong
homes) and other demand housing (i.e. private rental, owner occupation, lodging
accommodation, staff housing and accommodation for people with special requirements).
In addition to providing the right type of homes, it is necessary to ensure they are in the right
place. In this regard, it is recognised that there is little public appetite for more housing on
greenfield land. The two key objectives of the emerging Island Plan relating to this issue are:
to lead the regeneration of the Island‟s urban areas, particularly St. Helier, through
new residential development; and
to sustain the viability of rural parish communities, where there is a justifiable need to
do so, through the provision of land and development opportunities for new
residential development.
As with previous Island Plans, the provision for new homes in the emerging Plan is heavily
reliant on „windfall‟ developments in the built-up area being brought forward by private
developers over the Plan period.
The emerging Plan seeks to achieve delivery of affordable housing initially (i.e. for the first 5
years) through the designation of land. During the second five year period of the Plan, it is
intended to meet affordable accommodation needs principally by requiring a proportion of all
new residential development, above a certain threshold, to be affordable. Like its
21
predecessors, the draft Island Plan also includes restrictive policies which seek to maintain a
tight balance between the requirements for new homes and the supply of land for the purpose.
The focus in the foreseeable future will remain firmly on preserving undeveloped land as far
as possible.
3. ASSESSMENT OF HOUSING REQUIREMENTS
3.1 Housing Needs Survey It has long been recognised that there is a need for a clear, unequivocal and accurate
assessment of likely future housing needs and demands for all sectors of the housing market
(qualified and unqualified), which is able to stand up to close scrutiny. To this end, the
Statistics Unit undertakes Housing Need Surveys, at regular intervals. The latest and most
up-to-date housing needs survey was conducted independently by the Statistics Unit on behalf
of the Planning and Environment and Housing Ministers near the end of 2007. This
represents the most rigorous survey to-date and the findings and full analyses are set out in
the document entitled “Jersey‟s Housing Assessment 2008-2012”, Statistics Unit.
The estimated requirements for homes are based on people‟s expressed aspirations in late
2007 and, as such, represent a snapshot of the situation facing the Island at that time.
Furthermore, the figures are based on the assumption that there will be near perfect movement
in the housing market, so that all those seeking to move will be free to do so.
It is acknowledged that economic and social circumstances have changed dramatically since
the 2007 Survey. The survey was conducted after two years of increased employment
(especially for locally-qualified people), average earnings increasing faster than inflation and
strong real term growth in the economy in 2006 and 2007. This contrasts sharply with the
current global economic crisis, the local economic downturn, less certainty about the Island‟s
future economic performance, concerns about job security and falling earnings and heavy
restrictions on mortgage lending. All this can be expected to reduce confidence among
potential buyers and stifle short term demand. Indeed, there is evidence (addressed later in
this report) that a significant proportion of identified requirements for owner occupied homes
will be constrained in the immediate term, because many households aspiring to home
ownership are unable to do so without significant assistance. As a consequence, many of
these will remain in private rented accommodation or in existing larger households. It might
also lead to an increase in the number of households requiring social rented homes in the
short term. Notwithstanding this, in the draft Island Plan, the findings of the 2007 Housing
Needs Survey are still considered to be reasonably robust as a measure of overall demand.
The draft Island Plan expounds the argument that it is not the demand levels that will have
changed significantly from 2007, but primarily the ability to afford those aspirations. A new
Housing Needs Survey will not now be undertaken until the end of 2011 at the earliest.
However, the preliminary results of the 2009 Jersey Annual Social Survey (JASS) suggest
that the potential demand for two- and three-bedroom owner-occupied properties remains
greater than the potential supply, whilst there is greater potential supply (compared with
demand) for owner-occupied properties of one- and five-bedrooms.
As with previous survey reports, the upper limit of potential future housing requirements
identified in the 2007 Housing Needs Survey is estimated by comparing the total demand for
dwellings expressed in all the household responses, with the potential supply of properties
freed up by those wishing to move, those who die and those who will go into care. However,
this latest survey attempts to distinguish more firmly-based need, which it refers to as
“realistic aspiration”, from less well-founded expectations. It does this by comparing the size
of each household expressing a desire to move with the size of the desired dwelling. To this
end, where the desired number of bedrooms exceeded the number of occupants +1, this was
not regarded as a realistic aspiration.
22
3.2 Key Findings of the 2007 Housing Needs Survey The key points to emerge from the 2007 Housing Needs Survey were:
A significant demand for new homes in the five years between 2008 and 2012.
The figures point to potential “upper limit” requirements for some 2700 new homes
in the qualified sector and very few requirements (only 35 homes) in the non-
qualified sector over the 5 years to the end of 2012 (i.e. based on nil net migration
and the then 12 year ruling for housing qualification). However, based on additional
analysis, it estimated this demand in the qualified sector to be more “realistically” in
the region of 2,450 homes between 2008 and 2012.
Notable potential shortfalls in 2-, 3- and 4-bedroom owner-occupied family
accommodation, driven by: existing owner-occupiers wishing to increase or decrease
their dwelling size; „concealed‟ / new forming households (first-time buyers) wanting
their own accommodation; demand from households in the private rented sector; and
demand from in-migrant households who have or are set to gain housing
qualifications. The total potential shortfalls in the owner-occupier sector amounts to
more than 700 flats and 1,800 houses. The vast majority of 3- and 4-bedroom
dwelling requirements are for houses (i.e. 90% and 98% respectively);
Potential surpluses of some 1,400 x 1-bedroom dwellings, principally in private
rental accommodation and the non-qualified sector and driven by households wanting
to purchase property (i.e. this is dependent on the complementary availability of
larger accommodation so that households can move);
A potential shortfall of up to 400 x 1- and 2-bedroom older persons’ housing
units (i.e. for people aged 55 and over to live in independently, whilst also being able
to receive assistance from agencies such as Family Nursing and Home Care);
Significant potential surpluses throughout the private rented sector and notably
in 1- and 2-bedroom accommodation, as some 1,900 households then renting looked
to purchase. The total potential surplus can be divided into approximately 1,350 flats
(mainly 1- and 2-bedroom) and 700 houses (mainly 2- and 3-bedroom);
A relatively small potential overall surplus of 1-bedroom accommodation in the
social rental sector. (N.B. Larger potential surpluses of 1- and 2-bedroom States
rental homes are offset by shortfalls in the Housing Trust / Parish rental sector); 8
A relatively small potential shortfall of 55 x 3-bedroom family sized houses in the
social rented sector;
Significant potential surpluses throughout the non-qualified sector and very few
shortfalls, driven by non-qualified households gaining residential qualifications and
intending to move into the qualified sector (N.B. 660 such households were planning
to move in the following 5 years).
It is interesting to note that the early findings of JASS 2009 suggest similar distributions of
size and tenure of properties for potential supply and demand to those indicated in the 2007
Housing Needs Survey. In particular, these new findings suggest that the shortfall in 2-, 3-
and 4-bedroom owner-occupied accommodation is at a similar level to that seen in 2007 and
there remains a greater potential supply (compared to demand) for rental homes of all sizes.
3.3 Requirements for Homes based on Alternative Future Scenarios A useful feature of the “Jersey‟s Housing Assessment 2008 – 2012” report is that it provides
modelling tools to enable projected requirements to be established for a range of alternative
future scenarios, based on any profile of net migration and on any housing qualification
period. Table 1 shows comparative overall estimated requirements for new homes (i.e. the
sum of the net demand) for a range of six future scenarios, based on the „realistic aspirations‟
8 Looking beyond the numbers, it is important to bear in mind that many of the surplus one-bedroom
flats are not suitable for older persons on the States Rental Waiting List, because they are not
accessible and/or life time compliant.
23
included in the “Jersey‟s Housing Assessment 2008 – 2012” report.9 The scenarios show the
effect of both continuing the current „11-Year Rule‟ and of reducing the qualifying period to
10 years, using the following 3 alternative migration assumptions / options:
„nil net migration‟;
net annual immigration of +150 active heads of household (c.325 new residents);
net annual immigration of +200 active heads of household (c.430 new residents).
As alluded to earlier, the current approved short-term inward migration level over the next
five years, as set out in the new Strategic Plan and the associated Population Policy, is for an
average of no more than +150 heads of households per annum (c.325 people per annum). The
other two scenarios are provided for comparative purposes.
Table 1: Estimated Overall Requirements for New Homes, 2008–2012 under alternative future
scenarios Future Scenario Options Total Homes Required
Qualified Unqualified
11 YEAR RULE
Nil Net Migration (2,435) (-)
Net Inward Migration +150 households (2,600) (75)
Net Inward Migration +200 households (2,660) (95)
10 YEAR QUALIFICATION PERIOD
Nil Net Migration (2,550) (-)
Net Inward Migration +150 households (2,715) (45)
Net Inward Migration +200 household (2,775) (60)
The figures in Table 1 (and the tables which follow) take no account of dwellings completed
since the beginning of 2008, or known outstanding commitments. They serve to highlight that
reducing the qualifying period by a further year to 10 years will increase requirements in the
qualified sector for each migration assumption by around 115 homes, whilst reducing further
the relatively low requirements in the non-qualified sector. They also demonstrate the limited
increase in overall requirements for new homes in response to increases in the levels of
assumed net immigration, ranging from 165 to 225 homes over the 5-year period.
Potential requirements for new homes in the qualified sector between 2008 and 2012, based
upon immigration of +150 heads of household per year, range from 2,600 homes if the
existing 11 year housing qualification period is maintained to 2,715 if the qualification period
is reduced to 10 years. The estimated potential requirements in the non-qualified sector are at
a much lower level and are unlikely to be problematic. This, no doubt, reflects in part the
continual reduction in the housing qualification period over recent years.
A breakdown of the estimated requirements for new homes under the various scenarios by
size and tenure is set out in Table 2 to 7. These tables are organised in the „qualified sector‟
by aspiration of tenure, with perceived desirability increasing from right to left. Often, in
practical terms, the total shortfall of homes shown in the tables for the qualified and non-
qualified sectors is less than the aggregate of all the shortfalls. This is because a shortfall in
one tenure category might reasonably be expected to be eased by a surplus in another
category (i.e. another category immediately to its left in the „qualified sector‟ part of the table,
or one of the other categories in the „unqualified sector‟ part). For example, in the
unqualified sector, some of the projected surplus of 1-, 2- and 3-bed bedroom units in the
private rental and registered lodging sectors could be used to offset shortfalls of similar sized
staff accommodation.
9 The estimates in the report have been determined by superimposing directly onto the numbers in
Table 10 („Realistic Aspiration‟), the numbers in Tables 17 (modified to reflect the recent reduction in
the housing qualification period to 11 years) and relevant multiples of the numbers in Table 18.
24
Table2-7: Requirements for New Homes 2008–2012 (showing Surplus/Shortfall) by Tenure and
Size, under various scenarios
Table 2: SCENARIO OPTION 1 - Nil Net Migration / Maintain current ‘11-Year Rule’
QUALIFIED SECTOR UNQUALIFIED SECTOR
Siz
e
Ow
ner O
ccu
pie
d
So
cia
l R
en
ted
Sta
tes
/ P
ari
sh/
Ho
usi
ng T
ru
st
Priv
ate
Ren
tal
Ag
greg
ate
of
all
Sh
ortf
all
s
QU
AL
IFIE
D S
EC
TO
R
Practi
cal
To
tal
of
Sh
ortf
all
s
QU
AL
IFIE
D S
EC
TO
R
Pri
va
te R
enta
l (N
Q)
No
n-q
ual
ifie
d
occ
up
ier
of
pri
vat
e ac
com
mo
dat
ion
Reg
iste
red
Lo
dg
ing
No
n-q
ual
. lo
dg
er
in
Reg
iste
red
Lod
gin
g H
ou
se
Sta
ff
/ S
erv
ice
non
-qual
ifie
d o
ccup
ier
of
tied
(i.
e.
staf
f) a
cco
mm
odat
ion
Priv
ate
Lo
dg
ing
No
n-q
ual
. lo
dger
in
pri
vat
e
dw
elli
ng
Ag
greg
ate
of
all
Sh
ortf
all
s
UN
QU
AL
IFIE
D S
EC
TO
R
Practi
cal
To
tal
of
Sh
ortf
all
s
UN
QU
AL
IFIE
D S
EC
TO
R
1 bed (70) 70 820 (70) (70) 300 120 5 60 (-) (-)
2 bed (1,425) (15) 780 (1,440) (1440) 90 20 (15) - (15) (-)
3 bed (800) (40) 275 (840) (840) 115 5 (25) - (25) (-)
4 bed (175) - 30 (175) (85) 30 - - - (-) (-)
5 bed 90 - 25 (-) (-) - - - - (-) (-)
Total (2,380) 15 1930 (2,525) (2435) 535 145 (35) 60 (40) (-)
Notes: Assumes surplus in 5-bed Owner Occupied units could be used to address shortfall in 4-bed Owner Occupied units.
Assumes shortfalls in 2- and 3-bed staff / service accommodation could be met by surpluses of 2- and 3-bed
accommodation elsewhere in the unqualified sector (N.B. If not site specific).
Table 3: SCENARIO OPTION 2 - Nil Net Migration / Reduction to 10 Year Qualification
QUALIFIED SECTOR UNQUALIFIED SECTOR
Siz
e
Ow
ner O
ccu
pie
d
So
cia
l R
en
ted
Sta
tes
/ P
ari
sh/
Ho
usi
ng T
ru
st
Priv
ate
Ren
tal
Ag
greg
ate
of
all
Sh
ortf
all
s
QU
AL
IFIE
D S
EC
TO
R
Practi
cal
To
tal
of
Sh
ortf
all
s
QU
AL
IFIE
D S
EC
TO
R
Pri
va
te R
enta
l (N
Q)
No
n-q
ual
ifie
d
occ
up
ier
of
pri
vat
e ac
com
mo
dat
ion
Reg
iste
red
Lo
dg
ing
No
n-q
ual
. lo
dg
er
in
Reg
iste
red
Lod
gin
g H
ou
se
Sta
ff
/ S
erv
ice
non
-qual
ifie
d o
ccup
ier
of
tied
(i.
e.
staf
f) a
cco
mm
odat
ion
Priv
ate
Lo
dg
ing
No
n-q
ual
. lo
dger
in
pri
vat
e
dw
elli
ng
Ag
greg
ate
of
all
Sh
ortf
all
s
UN
QU
AL
IFIE
D S
EC
TO
R
Practi
cal
To
tal
of
Sh
ortf
all
s
UN
QU
AL
IFIE
D S
EC
TO
R
1 bed (70) 60 810 (70) (70) 345 130 5 65 (-) (-)
2 bed (1,460) (20) 770 (1,480) (1480) 130 30 (15) - (15) (-)
3 bed (855) (40) 270 (895) (895) 160 5 (25) - (25) (-)
4 bed (195) - 30 (195) (105) 30 - - - (-) (-)
5 bed 90 - 25 (-) (-) - - - - (-) (-)
Total (2,490) - 1905 (2640) (2550) 665 165 (35) 65 (40) (-)
Notes: Assumes surplus in5-bed Owner Occupied units could be used to address shortfall in 4-bed Owner Occupied Units;
Assumes shortfalls in 2- and 3-bed staff / service accommodation could be met by surpluses of 2- and 3-bed
accommodation elsewhere in the unqualified sector (N.B. If not site specific).
25
Table 4: SCENARIO OPTION 3 - Net Inward Migration +150 / Maintain current ‘11-Year Rule’
QUALIFIED SECTOR UNQUALIFIED SECTOR S
ize
Ow
ner O
ccu
pie
d
So
cia
l R
en
ted
Sta
tes
/ P
ari
sh/
Ho
usi
ng T
ru
st
Priv
ate
Ren
tal
Ag
greg
ate
of
all
Sh
ortf
all
s
QU
AL
IFIE
D S
EC
TO
R
Practi
cal
To
tal
of
Sh
ortf
all
s
QU
AL
IFIE
D S
EC
TO
R
Pri
va
te R
enta
l (N
Q)
No
n-q
ual
ifie
d
occ
up
ier
of
pri
vat
e ac
com
mo
dat
ion
Reg
iste
red
Lo
dg
ing
No
n-q
ual
. lo
dg
er
in
Reg
iste
red
Lod
gin
g H
ou
se
Sta
ff
/ S
erv
ice
non
-qual
ifie
d o
ccup
ier
of
tied
(i.
e.
staf
f) a
cco
mm
odat
ion
Priv
ate
Lo
dg
ing
No
n-q
ual
. lo
dger
in
pri
vat
e
dw
elli
ng
Ag
greg
ate
of
all
Sh
ortf
all
s
UN
QU
AL
IFIE
D S
EC
TO
R
Practi
cal
To
tal
of
Sh
ortf
all
s
UN
QU
AL
IFIE
D S
EC
TO
R
1 bed (100) 55 790 (100) (100) 210 120 (10) 60 (10) (-)
2 bed (1,440) (25) 615 (1,465) (1465) 45 5 (45) - (45) (45)
3 bed (860) (45) 185 (905) (905) 70 (10) (40) - (50) (30)
4 bed (205) - 15 (205) (130) 15 - - - (-) (-)
5 bed 75 - 10 (-) (-) - - - - (-) (-)
Total (2,530) (15) 1615 (2,675) (2600) 340 115 (95) 60 (105) (75)
Notes: Assumes surplus in5-bed Owner Occupied units could be used to address shortfall in 4-bed Owner Occupied Units;
Assumes shortfalls in 1-bed staff / service accommodation could be met by surpluses of 1-bed accommodation
elsewhere in the unqualified sector (N.B. If not site specific);
Assumes half shortfalls in 3-bed staff / service accommodation could be met by surpluses of 3- and 4-bed
accommodation elsewhere in the unqualified sector.
Table 5: SCENARIO OPTION 4 - Net Inward Migration +150 / Reduction to 10 Year
Qualification
QUALIFIED SECTOR UNQUALIFIED SECTOR
Siz
e
Ow
ner O
ccu
pie
d
So
cia
l R
en
ted
Sta
tes
/ P
ari
sh/
Ho
usi
ng T
ru
st
Priv
ate
Ren
tal
Ag
greg
ate
of
all
Sh
ortf
all
s
QU
AL
IFIE
D S
EC
TO
R
Practi
cal
To
tal
of
Sh
ortf
all
s
QU
AL
IFIE
D S
EC
TO
R
Pri
va
te R
enta
l (N
Q)
No
n-q
ual
ifie
d
occ
up
ier
of
pri
vat
e ac
com
mo
dat
ion
Reg
iste
red
Lo
dg
ing
No
n-q
ual
. lo
dg
er
in
Reg
iste
red
Lod
gin
g H
ou
se
Sta
ff
/ S
erv
ice
non
-qual
ifie
d o
ccup
ier
of
tied
(i.
e.
staf
f) a
cco
mm
odat
ion
Priv
ate
Lo
dg
ing
No
n-q
ual
. lo
dger
in
pri
vat
e
dw
elli
ng
Ag
greg
ate
of
all
Sh
ortf
all
s
UN
QU
AL
IFIE
D S
EC
TO
R
Practi
cal
To
tal
of
Sh
ortf
all
s
UN
QU
AL
IFIE
D S
EC
TO
R
1 bed (100) 45 780 (100) (100) 255 130 (10) 65 (10) (-)
2 bed (1,475) (30) 605 (1,505) (1505) 85 15 (45) - (45) (15)
3 bed (915) (45) 180 (960) (960) 115 (10) (40) - (50) (30)
4 bed (225) - 15 (225) (150) 15 - - - (-) (-)
5 bed 75 - 10 (-) (-) - - - - (-) (-)
Total (2,640) (30) 1590 (2,790) (2715) 470 135 (95) 65 (105) (45)
Notes: Assumes surplus in5-bed Owner Occupied units could be used to address shortfall in 4-bedOwner Occupied units;
Assumes shortfalls in 1-bed staff / service accommodation could be met by surpluses of 1-bed accommodation
elsewhere in the unqualified sector (N.B. If not site specific);
Assumes two thirds of shortfall in 2-bed staff / service accommodation could be met by surpluses of 2--bed
accommodation elsewhere in the unqualified sector.
Assumes half of shortfall of 3-bed staff / service accommodation could be met by surpluses of 3-bed
accommodation elsewhere in the unqualified sector.
26
Table 6: SCENARIO OPTION 5 - Net Inward Migration +200 / Maintain current ‘11-Year Rule’
QUALIFIED SECTOR UNQUALIFIED SECTOR S
ize
Ow
ner O
ccu
pie
d
So
cia
l R
en
ted
Sta
tes
/ P
ari
sh/
Ho
usi
ng T
ru
st
Priv
ate
Ren
tal
Ag
greg
ate
of
all
Sh
ortf
all
s
QU
AL
IFIE
D S
EC
TO
R
Practi
cal
To
tal
of
Sh
ortf
all
s
QU
AL
IFIE
D S
EC
TO
R
Pri
va
te R
enta
l (N
Q)
No
n-q
ual
ifie
d
occ
upie
r o
f
pri
vat
e ac
com
mo
dat
ion
Reg
iste
red
Lo
dg
ing
No
n-q
ual
. lo
dg
er
in
Reg
iste
red
Lod
gin
g H
ou
se
Sta
ff
/ S
erv
ice
non
-qual
ifie
d o
ccup
ier
of
tied
(i.
e.
staf
f) a
cco
mm
odat
ion
Priv
ate
Lo
dg
ing
No
n-q
ual
. lo
dger
in
pri
vat
e
dw
elli
ng
Ag
greg
ate
of
all
Sh
ortf
all
s
UN
QU
AL
IFIE
D S
EC
TO
R
Practi
cal
To
tal
of
Sh
ortf
all
s
UN
QU
AL
IFIE
D S
EC
TO
R
1 bed (110) 55 780 (110) (110) 180 120 (15) 60 (15) (-)
2 bed (1,445) (30) 560 (1,475) (1475) 30 (-) (55) - (55) (55)
3 bed (880) (50) 155 (930) (930) 55 (15) (45) - (60) (40)
4 bed (215) - 10 (215) (145) 10 - - - (-) (-)
5 bed 70 - 5 (-) (-) - - - - (-) (-)
Total (2,580) (25) 1505 (2,730) (2660) 275 105 (115) 60 (130) (95)
Notes: Assumes surplus in 5-bed Owner Occupied units could be used to address shortfall in 4-bed Owner Occupied units.
Assumes shortfalls in 1-bed staff / service accommodation could be met by surpluses of 1-bed accommodation
elsewhere in the unqualified sector (N.B. If not site specific);
Assumes half shortfalls in 3-bed staff / service accommodation could be met by surpluses in 3- and 4-bed
accommodation elsewhere in the unqualified sector.
Table 7: SCENARIO OPTION 6 - Net Inward Migration +200 / reduction to 10 Year
Qualification
QUALIFIED SECTOR UNQUALIFIED SECTOR
Siz
e
Ow
ner O
ccu
pie
d
So
cia
l R
en
ted
Sta
tes
/ P
ari
sh/
Ho
usi
ng T
ru
st
Priv
ate
Ren
tal
Ag
greg
ate
of
all
Sh
ortf
all
s
QU
AL
IFIE
D S
EC
TO
R
Practi
cal
To
tal
of
Sh
ortf
all
s
QU
AL
IFIE
D S
EC
TO
R
Pri
va
te R
enta
l (N
Q)
No
n-q
ual
ifie
d
occ
up
ier
of
pri
vat
e ac
com
mo
dat
ion
Reg
iste
red
Lo
dg
ing
No
n-q
ual
. lo
dger
in
R
egis
tere
d
Lod
gin
g H
ou
se
Sta
ff
/ S
erv
ice
non
-qual
ifie
d o
ccup
ier
of
tied
(i.e
. st
aff)
acc
om
mod
atio
n
Priv
ate
Lo
dg
ing
No
n-q
ual
. lo
dger
in
pri
vat
e
dw
elli
ng
Ag
greg
ate
of
all
Sh
ortf
all
s
UN
QU
AL
IFIE
D S
EC
TO
R
Practi
cal
To
tal
of
Sh
ortf
all
s
UN
QU
AL
IFIE
D S
EC
TO
R
1 bed (110) 45 770 (110) (110) 225 130 (15) 65 (15) (-)
2 bed (1,480) (35) 550 (1,515) (1515) 70 10 (55) - (55) (25)
3 bed (935) (50) 150 (985) (985) 100 (15) (45) - (60) (35)
4 bed (235) - 10 (235) (165) 10 - - - (-) (-)
5 bed 70 - 5 (-) (-) - - - - (-) (-)
Total (2,690) (140) 1485 (2,845) (2775) 405 125 (115) 65 (130) (60)
Notes: Assumes surplus in 5-bed Owner Occupied units could be used to address shortfall in 4-bed Owner Occupier
units;
Assumes shortfalls in 1-bed staff / service accommodation could be met by surpluses of 1-bed accommodation
elsewhere in the unqualified sector (N.B. If not site specific);
Assumes approx. half shortfall in 2-bed and 3-bed staff / service accommodation could be met by surpluses of 2--
bed and 3-bed accommodation elsewhere in the unqualified sector.
Source: „Jersey‟s Housing Assessment 2008-2012: Report on the 2007 Housing Needs Survey‟, Tables 10, 17 and 18, Statistics
Unit, April 2008.
27
3.4 Alternative Assessment of Housing Demand To inform the current Island Plan review process, the Statistics Unit has recently helped to
generate estimations of demand for homes for the 10 year Plan Period 2009-2018. These are
based on a combination of:
population modelling - to generate estimates of the Island‟s future population,
assuming an inward migration scenario of +150 heads of household per annum; and
average household size modelling. For the purposes of this work, potential future private household numbers (i.e. excluding
households living in communal establishments) are taken literally as an expression of demand
for homes, by assuming that each additional household represents an increase in demand for a
housing unit. However, allowances are made for „vacancy rates‟ and homes requiring
replacement. Provision has also been made for „latent‟ demand for homes, using base
information from the 2007 Housing Needs Survey, in order to establish total demand. The
broad findings of the exercise reflect earlier work undertaken by the Planning Department in
connection with the development of the Population Strategy and are set out in Table 8.
Table 8: Total Demand for Housing over the Period 2009-2018, as set out in the Draft Island Plan
Demand Element Dwellings Required
2009-2013 2014-2018 Estimated additional dwelling requirements
from population modelling based on net
immigration of +150 heads of household per
year.
1,500 1,500
2007 Housing Needs Survey (additional latent
demand not discounted by population
modelling).
500 500
Total 2,000 2,000
Source: States of Jersey – White Paper – Draft Island Plan, 2009
Table 8 indicates a requirement for some 4,000 new homes over the next 10 years to 2018.
This is divided equally over two five-year periods. There is a significant difference between
the identified demand for 2,000 homes in the first 5 years of the new Plan (2009-2013) and
the estimated 5-year requirements for 2,600 homes based on the 2007 Housing Needs Survey
(2008-2012) as reflected by early findings from the JASS 2009. This difference can largely
be explained by the decision to only include half of the identified latent demand for new
homes in the first 5 years of the Plan, bearing in mind the constraints imposed on potential
buyers in the current economic circumstances. It would appear, therefore, that the two
alternative methods of calculating short-term housing demand are mutually supportive.
3.5 Required Building Rates Table 9 shows the average annual building rates required in the short-term to deliver the
estimated requirements for new homes in the „qualified sector‟, assuming net in-migration of
+150 heads of household per annum. The estimated demand for homes based on the 2007
Housing Needs Study suggests a required average building rate of 520 to 540 homes per year
between 2008 and 2012, depending on whether the housing qualification period is maintained
or reduced to 10 years. It can be seen from Section 6, Table 23 that this rate of building is
higher than the average (366) achieved in the 16 years between the last two Island Plans (i.e.
between 1987 and 2002), but is below the average building rate (584) achieved in the 7 years
since the start of 2002. The housing demand estimates identified for the Island Plan review
would only require an average building rate of 400 dwellings per year, between 2009 and
2013. Based on past performance, this should be relatively easy to sustain.
28
Table 9: Average Building Rates Required for New Homes based on Alternative Assessments of
Housing Demand Assessments of Demand Estimated
Homes Required in
Qualified Sector
Average
Building Rates
Required
(homes / year)
Based on 2007 Housing Needs Survey (2008-2012) 11 Year Rule
Net Inward Migration +150 households
(2,600) 520
10 Year Qualification Period
Net Inward Migration +200 households
(2,715) 543
Based on Population and Household Modelling (2009-2013) Net Inward Migration +150 households (2,000) 400
3.6 Requirements by Type and Size – Qualified Sector The Housing Needs Survey report includes a breakdown of potential shortfalls and surpluses
by tenure and size in the „qualified sector‟ in terms of houses and flats. Table 10 shows these
potential shortfalls and surpluses, using „realistic aspirations‟ and assuming both „nil net
migration‟ and continuation of the previous 12 year qualification period. Unfortunately, the
Housing Needs Survey does not show the effect on these figures of reducing the qualification
period to 11 years or 10 years, or the effects of the preferred net migration scenario of +150
heads of household per annum. However, the information in Table 10 is useful in flagging up
potential shortfalls and over-provision in houses and flats of different sizes and tenures.
Table10: Realistic Aspiration for New Homes by Houses and Flats in the Qualified Sector, 2008 –
2012, based on ‘Nil Net Migration’ and the old 12 Year Rule’. Tenure
/
Size
Owner-occupied States Rental Housing Trust /
Parish Rental
Private Rental
Flat House Flat House Flat House Flat House
1 bed (95) 30 160 (20) (45) (10) 790 45
2 bed (625) (765) 125 (20) (55) (55) 385 410
3 bed (90) (650) 25 (35) 30 (55) 80 205
4 bed (10) (150) - (10) - 10 20 10
5+ bed - 90 - + - - - 25
Total (825) (1,445) 305 (80) (75) (110) 1,275 700
Source: States of Jersey Statistics Unit – Jersey Housing Needs Assessment, 2008-2012 (Table 11)
As alluded to earlier, the main potential shortfall in the qualified sector is predominantly in
owner-occupier accommodation. Demand for such properties is driven by:
Current owner-occupiers looking to up-size or down-size;
New forming households / concealed households, presently in existing larger
households;
Qualified households in the private rental sector wishing to purchase; and
In-migrant households wishing to move into the owner-occupier sector.
This estimated five-year demand for owner occupied accommodation comprises more than
800 flats (36%) and approximately 1,450 are houses (64%). The distribution of the shortfalls
in 2-bedroom owner-occupier dwellings indicates that approximately two-fifths (43%) of the
shortfall is for flats and three-fifths (57%) for houses. However, as property sizes increase the
demand for houses increasingly supersedes that for flats, with for example 88% of the
potential shortfall for 3-bedroom units being for houses.
The social rented sector shows a combined requirement for just 200 homes. It would appear
that the shortfall of 1- and 2-bedroom flats in the housing trust sector could potentially be met
by surpluses elsewhere in the social rented sector. However, it is important to recognise that
the projected shortfall of 1-bed flats in the social rented sector could be significantly
29
underestimated, because many 1-bed flats in the social rented sector are unsuitable for
occupation by older persons in need. The private rental sector, on the other hand, shows large
surpluses in 1- and 2-bedroom flats (1,175 units) and in 2- and 3-bedroom houses (615 units).
As it states in the Housing Needs Survey report, “if tenure were not an issue, these large
potential shortfalls could potentially satisfy some of the demand in the owner-occupied
sector”.
The proportionate shortfalls set out above have been used to estimate shortfalls of flats and
houses for the period 2008-2012 for each of the +150 Net Migration Scenarios (see Tables 11
and 12). The figures suggest that 35% of the demand for homes during this period is for flats
(mostly 2-bedroom owner-occupied) and 65% of the demand is for houses (mostly 2- and 3-
bedroom owner-occupied).
Table11: Estimated Shortfalls of Houses and Flats in the Qualified Sector, 2008 – 2012, based on
Net Inward Migration of +150Households per Year and ‘11 Year Rule’. Tenure/
Size
Owner-occupied Social Rental Private Rental Net Total
Homes
Flats Houses Flats Houses Flats Houses Flats Houses
1 bed (105) - (12) (8) - - (117) (8)
2 bed (688) (844) (6) (20) - - (694) (864)
3 bed (99) (718) - (21) - - (99) (739)
4 bed (11) (65) - (3) - - (11) (68)
5+ bed - - - - - - - -
Total (903) (1,627) (18) (52) - - (921) (1,679)
(2,530) (70) - (2,600)
Table12: Estimated Shortfalls of Houses and Flats in the Qualified Sector, 2008 – 2012, based on
Net Inward Migration of +150 Households per Year and Reduction to 10 Year Qualification. Tenure/
Size
Owner-occupied Social Rental Private Rental Net Total
Homes
Flats Houses Flats Houses Flats Houses Flats Houses
1 bed (109) - (13) (8) - - (122) (8)
2 bed (718) (881) (7) (21) - - (725) (902)
3 bed (104) (749) - (23) - - (104) (772)
4 bed (11) (68) - (3) - - (11) (71)
5+ bed - - - - - - - -
Total (942) (1,698) (20) (55) - - (962) (1,753)
(2,640) (75) - (2,715)
3.7 Category ‘A’ Requirements The terms „Category A‟ and „Category B‟ have been in common usage in the Jersey planning
and housing sectors since it was first introduced in the 1987 Island Plan. Category A is
intended to denote affordable/„need‟ housing and has become synonymous with social rented
housing provided by the States, Parish or a Housing Trust (including sheltered housing) and
purpose-built homes for first-time buyers. More recently, the States has decided to widen the
definition to incorporate:
„lifelong homes‟ designed to accommodate both fit and less able people over the age
of 55; and
„Jersey Homebuy Housing‟.
Jersey Homebuy is a new form of affordable housing, which is aimed at those whose incomes
are too great to be eligible for social rented houses, but who are unable to afford to buy the
cheapest first-time buyer home. It enables people who fall within this group to buy first-time
buyer properties without paying the full first-time buyer market price. The level of deferred
payment for these homes against market value is determined by the Minister for Planning and
Environment and early schemes have seen deferred payments of between 35% and 45%,
30
which have been registered as second charges on the property. Under the scheme, the
purchaser will own 100% of the property, even though he may pay only 65% of the first-time
buyer market price. However, in such circumstances, the not-for-profit provider will get a
35%-45% share of the value of the house in order to repay the second charge if the owner
sells it or dies.10
In all circumstances, the property must remain in the first-time buyer market
in perpetuity.
Category B is intended to denote other private sector „demand‟ housing and covers all other
housing not included in the Category A definition.
Unlike earlier versions, the 2007 Housing Needs Survey makes it possible to estimate the
total number of homes required for Category A purposes. This is because, in addition to
assessing the potential requirements for social rented homes between 2008 and 2012, the
survey looks to distinguish first-time buyer requirements from the overall requirements for
owner occupied accommodation. The survey reveals that half of all the households which
expressed a desire to purchase a property in the next five years were first-time buyers (i.e.
equivalent to some 3,100 households. Of these, almost two-thirds are existing households
(1,970) and the remainder are „concealed households‟ (1,145).11
By comparing identified first
time buyer demand with total demand for owner occupied homes it is possible to establish the
proportional split between demand from first-time buyers and other buyers, which can then in
turn be used to estimate the proportional split between Category A and Category B
requirements in the „qualified sector‟.
Table 13: Comparison of 5-Year Demand for First-Time Buyer Homes with Total Demand for
Owner-Occupier Accommodation*1
Type and Size
of Home
Required
Estimated First-Time Buyer Demand *1 Total Demand for
Owner/Occupied
accommodation*4
F-T-B Demand
as percentage of
O/O Demand Existing
Households
*3
Concealed
Households
*2
Total %
1-bedroom
- flats
- houses
- sub-total
124
191
295
20
315
10%
1%
11%
485
65%
2-bedroom
- flats
- houses
- sub-total
688
657
720
625
1,345
23%
20%
43%
2,290
59%
3-bedroom
- flats
- houses
- sub-total
900
250
110
1,040
1,150
3%
33%
36%
2,330
49%
4-bedroom+
- flats
- houses
- sub-total
258
47
-
305
305
-
10%
10%
1,150
27%
TOTAL 1,970 1,145 3,115 100% 6,255 50% Notes: *1 Shown in Report on the 2007 Housing Needs Survey, Tables 15 and 16.;
*2 Uses same proportional split of demand for property types shown in Report on the 2007 Housing Needs
Survey, Table 5.
*3 Difference between total estimated first-time buyer demand and estimated ‘concealed’ households.
*4 Report on 2007 Housing Needs Survey, Table 5.
Source: „Jersey‟s Housing Assessment 2008-2012‟, Tables 5, 15 and 16
10
It should be noted that the economic circumstances have changed since the gateway and deferred
payment parameters were set, when mortgage lenders were offering 5 times income multiples. It is a
cause for concern that mortgage funding is now much more restricted, particularly for first-time buyers. 11
Report on the 2007 Housing Needs Survey, Table 15, p 20.
31
The figures suggest that 50% of the total demand for owner occupied homes in the five year
period 2008-2012 is likely to be from first-time buyers (including 65% of 1-bedroom, 59% of
2-bedroom, 49% of 3-bedroom and 27% of 4-bedroom properties). If the relevant proportions
are applied to the identified requirements for owner/occupied homes between 2008 and 2012,
under the various scenarios described earlier (see Tables 2 - 7), it is possible to calculate
(albeit roughly) what the requirements might be for first-time buyer homes and Category A
homes.
The estimates are shown in Table 14 and suggest that between 1,265 and 1,320 new first-time
buyer homes might be required over the period 2008-2012, based on the preferred future in-
migration scenario (+150 heads of household per year). Over the same period, using the same
scenario, the figures suggest a possible requirement for between 1,335 and 1,395 new
Category A homes overall. This represents an average of 51-53% of the overall identified
requirements in the qualified sector, and compares with an average of 35% over the last 23
years (1986 to 2008).
Table 14: Estimated First-Time Buyer and Category A Requirements as a Proportion of Overall
Requirements in the Qualified Sector, 2008-2012
Future
Scenario
Options
Requirements in Qualified Sector Category A
Requirements
F-T-B (50% of
O/O)
(a)
Other
O/O
(b)
Total
O/O
(c)
Social
Rented
(d)
Private
Rented
(e)
TOTAL
(f)
Number
(a) + (d)
%
TOTAL
11 YEAR RULE Nil Net
Migration
1190 1190 2380 55 - 2435 1245 51%
+ 150 h/hs 1265
1265 2530 70 - 2600 1335 51%
+200 h/hs
1290 1290 2580 80 - 2660 1370 52%
10 YEAR QUALIFICATION PERIOD Nil Net
Migration
1245 1245 2490 60 - 2550 1305 51%
+ 150 h/hs
1320 1320 2640 75 - 2715 1395 53%
+200 h/hs
1345 1345 2690 85 - 2775 1430 52%
The relatively low social rented element of the Category A requirement in „Housing Needs
Surveys‟ reflects the fact that access to States rented stock (i.e. three-quarters of the social
housing stock) is tightly controlled and rationed. Access to the States housing waiting list is
only available to residentially qualified households, who must either have young children, or
be over 50 years of age, or have medical, physical or mental disabilities and need special
types of housing. In addition, applications are restricted to households with incomes less than
defined maximum limits, which roughly equate to the bottom two quintiles of the income
distribution in Jersey and, effectively, below the level at which a household qualifies for
Income Support. Restrictions in the range of household types eligible for States housing
mean that roughly half of all households are ineligible and this is reduced to only 20% once
means test restrictions have been taken into account.
3.8 Requirements for Older Persons’ Housing The „2007 Housing Needs Survey‟ identifies a potential shortfall of up to 400 dwellings units
for older persons over the 5 years to the end of 2012. For the purposes of that survey, “older
person‟s housing” is defined as follows:
32
“Housing designed for people aged 55 or over to live in a socially supportive
environment which enables them to live somewhat independently, whilst also
being able to receive assistance from agencies such as Family Nursing and Home
Care.”
At the time, it was recognised that such homes could comprise houses, bungalows and flats
and could include Parish elderly persons‟ homes, retirement homes, life-long homes and
varying degrees of „sheltered accommodation‟. In other words, accommodation that enables
people who might not otherwise be able to do so, to live and remain independently in their
own homes and in the wider community, through suitable building design and support (N.B.
as opposed to being placed in an institutional / communal type of care setting, such as a
nursing home, or a long-stay hospital bed).
The identified shortfall of 400 such dwellings over the next five years represented an „upper
bound‟ and was made up of:
the identified overall shortfall arising from the difference between demand
created by households planning to move and the potential supply of units
released by those movers, and occupants who will either die or move into
extended care facilities (i.e. 180 dwellings);
the identified additional latent need of households wishing to move if such
accommodation were available (i.e. some 160 dwellings); and
certain known reductions in current supply.
The size and tenure requirements for older persons‟ homes are only identified in the survey
report for the shortfall of 180 dwellings arising as the difference between supply and demand.
These are set out in Table 15 below and indicate that some two-thirds of the shortfall is for 1-
bedroom units, with the remainder being for 2-bedroom units).
Table 15: 5-Year Demand for Older Persons’ Housing (supply-demand), by Tenure and Size
Tenure /
Size
Owner
Occupier
States
Rental
Housing
Trust / Parish
Rental
Private
Rental
Total
1-bed (40) (55) (25) (+) (120)
2-bed (40) (40) (10) 30 (60)
Total (85) (90) (35) 25 (180)
As part of the Housing Needs Survey, households were asked which facilities they would
require for older persons‟ housing. The most popular facilities selected by respondents were:
a small garden (69%); a lift (56%); and a warden (37%). More than a quarter (28%) of
respondents wishing to move to older person‟s housing within 5 years, expressed a preference
to live in the urban area of St. Helier. The next most popular choices were the west of the
Island (22%) and no specific preference (18%). Of those interested in moving to older
persons‟ housing in the next 10 years, nearly half (46%) were owner-occupiers and a third
(33%) were in qualified private rental accommodation.
Looking beyond 2012, it is clear that requirements for older persons‟ housing will continue to
grow at an increasingly rapid pace over the next 20 years or so. In common with many
developed economies in Northern Europe, Jersey‟s population is ageing as life expectancy
increases and over the next few decades there will be a long-term shift in the composition of
the population. This issue was brought into sharp focus in the 2004 Island-wide Strategy for
an Aging Society (ISAS) Report and highlighted in previous „Planning for Homes‟
documents. At the time of the 2001 census, some 17% of the Island‟s population was of
retirement age. This is projected to rise to 20% by 2015, to 26% by 2025 and to a massive
32% by 2031, based on a nil net migration scenario. As a consequence, without remedial
action, there will be more and more retired people with reduced incomes owning and
33
occupying larger family homes…homes that are not suited to their needs and which will often
involve overheads that are beyond their financial means. The implications for housing
provision will become increasingly significant after 2010, when the „baby boomers‟ (born
between 1946 and 1965) start to enter their retirement years. This has the potential to pose a
considerable challenge for future Island Plans in terms of increased demand for older person‟s
housing. Interestingly, in this regard, JASS 2009 points to an increase in the proportion of
households who would be looking to downsize locally upon retirement (17%), compared with
JASS 2006 (10%).
The Housing Department has previously expressed the view that people beyond working age
represent the biggest and most immediate housing / planning challenge in terms of increased
demand. In 2007, the average age of States‟ tenants was 55 (40% over the age of 60) and
there were nearly 1,800 pensioners living in States rental accommodation. The potential
shortfall of older persons‟ housing units over the 5 years to 2012, which was identified in the
latest Housing Needs Survey, reflects that identified in the Housing Department‟s „Social
Housing Property Plan‟ 2007-2016. That Plan also suggests there may be a requirement for
up to 400 „sheltered‟ / last-time buyer homes within the next 5 years, to allow elderly people
to downsize to more manageable / affordable accommodation and cater for their housing
needs throughout the remainder of their independent lives. Some may be able to purchase
suitable properties and others could be accommodated by existing or converted States‟ rental
stock, but, as the Property Plan suggests, there is a need to create new social rented
accommodation, particularly accommodation designed as Lifelong homes for older persons.
The Housing Department‟s Waiting and Transfer lists provide another source of information
on demand for older persons‟ housing. Figure 1 shows a breakdown in one, two and three
bedroom size need for those on the lists from 2004 to 2009. These figures represent real
individuals, all of whom have been means tested and all of whom meet the very stringent
allocations criteria. The graph cannot demonstrate overall need across all social housing
providers at this time, however, one of the very clear benefits of the affordable housing
gateway becoming the single route of access for affordable housing will be the more
comprehensive data on need that it will provide access to.
Figure 1: Summary of States Housing Waiting and Transfer List bed Size Need 2004-2009
Year End Bed Size Need Figures 2004 - 2009
322 326
370360
314 312
148
208
164
194207
126
154
10791 94
106
276
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Year
One Bed Two Bed Three Bed
These figures clearly show the greatest demand to be that of one bedroom accommodation. It
is also known that, of the 312 individuals/couples waiting for one bedroom accommodation at
the end of 2009, 62 are currently under-occupying larger units within the stock, which has the
34
effect of blocking these units for others waiting on the list for 2, 3 and 4 bedroom homes.
Simply put, if the required 312 one bedroom units were provided 62 two and three bedroom
units would become available reducing the waiting lists for these categories of home to 322
overall.
Further evidence of current requirements for older persons‟ housing has been provided in the
last two years or so by approaches to the Planning and Building Services Department from a
number of Parish Constables, wishing to develop their own schemes. As a consequence, in
July 2008, the States approved a proposition to rezone some 60 vergees of land in seven
parishes primarily intended to provide around 300 „lifelong‟ homes for fit and less able
people over the age of 55. The homes will be designed to allow people to live independently
in the community for as long as possible. It is clearly important, as alluded earlier, to ensure
that these homes are brought forward in a timely manner. The Housing Department, in
particular, is concerned that a lack of such accommodation becoming available in the near
future would lead to more blocking of units in the States rental sector and would start to delay
the refurbishment programme for States rental stock.
4. OTHER INFORMATION SOURCES ON HOUSING DEMAND
4.1 House Prices
Average House Prices
House prices in the private sector are a reasonable indicator of supply and demand pressures
in the housing market and of the general direction in which the market is headed. Evidence of
trends in house prices is provided by the „Jersey House Price Index‟, which is compiled
quarterly by the Statistics Unit and is based on the average sale prices of a fairly broad range
of property types and sizes (including 1- and 2-bedroom flats and 2-, 3- and 4-bedroom
houses).
Historically, there was a year-on-year escalation in property values (with the exception of the
mid 90‟s recession when prices were relatively static) between 1985 and 2001, during which
time house prices rose by almost a factor of 5. The property market was especially buoyant in
the late 1980‟s and late 1990‟s, when house prices increased rapidly. These were periods
when the economy was thriving, there was low unemployment and increased demand for new
homes outstripped supply. Following a peak in house price inflation in 1998, increases in
property prices began to slow and during 2000 and 2001 began stabilise at much lower levels
as the economic climate began to appear less certain. From the most recently published reports on the Jersey House Price Index, it is possible to
plot the trends in average house prices on a quarterly basis since 2002. Table 16 shows the
average dwelling prices and corresponding House Price Index (based to 100 for calendar year
2002) for the last 7 years or so. The figures show that, despite quarterly fluctuations, prices
levelled off and remained essentially flat during 2002 and 2003, before undergoing a small
rate of increase (3%) in both 2004 and 2005. There followed a rapid and exponential growth
rate in average prices from 7% in 2006 to 13% in 2007 and a massive 26% in 2008.
However, the figure for the third quarter of 2009 shows a mix-adjusted average house price of
£497,000, which was the same as the average recorded over the preceding 4 quarters
(£496,000) and also for the first 6 months of 2009 (£497,000). In fact, compared to 12
months ago, average house prices have fallen by 2%. To all intents and purposes over the last
fifteen months the house price index has remained substantially flat.
35
Table 16: Mix-adjusted Average Dwelling Price and Jersey House Price Index, since start 2002
Year Period Average Price (£) Index (2002 = 100)
2002 Average 317,000 100.0
2003 Average 317,000 100.0
2004 Average 328,000 103.2
2005 Average 337,000 106.0
2006 Q1 355,000 111.8
Q2 346,000 109.0
Q3 372,000 117.2
Q4 360,000 113.5
Average 358,000 112.9
2007 Q1 371,000 116.8
Q2 388,000 122.2
Q3 421,000 132.7
Q4 435,000 137.0
Average 405,000 127.2
2008 Q1 474,000 149.5
Q2 480,000 151.3
Q3 508,000 160.0
Q4 480,000 151.3
Average 486,000 153.0
2009 Q1 507,000 159.8
Q2 488,000 153.6
Q3 497,000 156.6
It is clear that house prices were continuing to increase considerably faster than inflation (as
measured by the Retail Price Index (RPI) up until last year, when the gap reduced
significantly. For comparative purposes, in the 12 months to December 2007 and to
December 2008, the RPI for Jersey (including housing costs) rose by 3.9% and 3.3%
respectively. However, in the 12 months to September 2009, the RPI decreased by 0.6%.
Trends in the Jersey House Price Index since 2002 are plotted in Figure 2. This graphically
illustrates the substantially flat Index and generally stable housing market for the period up to
2006 and the following steady and significant rise in prices, which have effectively reached a
plateau (notwithstanding quarterly fluctuations) in the last 15 months or so.
Figure 2: Jersey House Price Index
(Average for 2002 = 100)
Source: Jersey House Price Index, Statistics Unit
36
In the past, certain prominent developers and local estate agents that have called into question
the accuracy and credibility of the official House Price Index, arguing in particular that the
recorded price rises are misleading because they do not include new-build share transfer
transactions which have been estimated to make up three-fifths of all sales of flats since the
beginning of 2002. The Statistics Unit is, however, of the view that the Index provides a
robust indicator of the state of the overall market for flats in the Island. Not least because the
prices of share transfer properties are governed by the same economic forces as other
comparable properties in the Jersey housing market.
Prices by type and size
The House Price Index report for the third quarter of 2009 also provides information on the
mean prices for different types of dwelling over the period from 2002, as shown in Table 17.
Table 17: Mean Prices (£,000) for Individual Property Types
TIME PERIOD FLATS HOUSES
1-bed 2-bed 2-bed 3-bed 4-bed 2002 Average 157 249 280 328 448
2003 Average 157 223 274 334 458
2004 Average 159 235 264 345 478
2005 Average 154 234 286 356 474
2006 Average 167 255 297 381 493
2007 Average 180 251 340 435 571
2008 Q1 255 327 391 510 638
Q2 226 323 378 506 704
Q3 229 322 447 541 706
Q4 229 333 407 524 628
Average 234 325 400 518 677
2009 Q1 237 321 408 528 758
Q2 225 321 380 516 712
Q3 222 303 414 538 692
Whilst recognising the degree of volatility that can occur quarter-on-quarter in the mean
prices of individual property types, the most recent House Price Index report goes on to
describe apparent themes/trends, as follows:
1-bedroom flats: the mean price of 1-bedroom flats was essentially stable
throughout 2008 and the first six months of 2009. The mean price of 1-bedroom flats
sold in Q3 2009, at £222,000, was slightly below that seen during the preceding
twelve months but was based on low turnover of such properties.
2-bedroom flats: Similar to the behaviour of 1-bedroom flats, the mean price of 2-
bedroom flats remained essentially stable during 2008 and the first 6 months of 2009.
The mean price recorded in Q3 2009, £303,000, was also slightly lower than that seen
over the preceding twelve months, but as for 1-bedroom flats, was based on low
turnover.
2-bedroom houses: The mean price in Q3 2009 (£414,000) was at a similar level to
the mean seen over the preceding four quarters.
3-bedroom houses: This category of property accounts for almost half of all
transactions in Jersey. Following a period of on-going increases from 2006 to mid-
2008, the last 15 months have seen stable prices, with the most recent quarter, Q3
2009, recording a mean price (£538,000), which was essentially the same as a year
previously, Q3 2008 (£541,000).
4-bedroom houses: Q3 2009 recorded a mean price of £692,000, which was
marginally below (-1%) that seen over the preceding four quarters (£701,000).
37
First Time Buyer Prices
The House Price Index report for the third quarter of 2009 also provides generalised
information for the average prices of flats and houses in the first-time buyer market on an
annual basis. This indicates that from 2004 to 2007 the average price of first-time buyer flats
remained relatively stable at around £200,000. By 2008, the average price was recorded as
being in excess of £300,000 in 2008 (due in large part to the comparatively very small
proportion of 1-bedroom flats sold), before falling again in 2009 to £257,000. The annual
average price of first-time buyer houses exceeded £300,000 in 2007, was approaching
£400,000 in 2008 and surpassed £425,000 in 2009.
Factors affecting House Prices House prices are affected by numerous factors which change over time.
2001-2004
This was a time of stable property prices. The main factors underlying this were the more
challenging economic situation facing the Island between 2001 and 2004, combined with a
healthy increase in the supply of new homes (in particular a large number of new apartments),
which effectively addressed the previous imbalance in supply and demand. Other
contributory factors at that time probably included:
Increased public awareness and concerns about the future of the economy and a
subsequent reduction of confidence among potential buyers;
the weakening labour market in 2002 and 2003 and concerns about future job
security;
a reduction in job opportunities;
lower rates of growth in average earnings during 2002-2004 as compared with the
previous six years;
frozen income tax allowances, rising income tax and the prospects of further
significant increases in taxation;
problems of affordability, whereby house prices had outpaced the growth in earnings
for many potential buyers;
rises in interest rates and the cost of borrowing (albeit from an historically low base);
lower expectations of house price appreciation;
increased flexibility and opportunity in the planning system, following the adoption
of the Jersey Island Plan 2002.
2004-mid 2008
It is clear that the dynamics of the housing market began changing from 2004 when different
factors came into play. This is reflected by a more buoyant market which began to move
forward with a small steady rate of increase in 2004 and 2005 and then increasingly strong
and seemingly inexorable price rises in 2006, 2007 and the first 6 months of 2008. The
extremely active market and rampant house price inflation during the last 18 months of this
period represented the biggest property boom for 10 years. It saw more people chasing
property in the market place, more buyers than sellers, a large increase in property
transactions for all home categories, over-heated property prices across the board and asking
prices met within hours. Indeed, demand was so strong that sealed bids were regularly
necessary (where asking prices were being offered by more than one buyer) to establish the
best price for the vendor. Many properties were also being sold by informal tender and/or by
advertising for offers “in excess of” a certain price.
This changed situation was caused / underpinned by a combination of factors, albeit to
varying degrees, including:
38
the rapid and healthy growth in the economy, aided by co-ordinated States policy
initiatives aimed specifically at sustainable economic growth, and driven primarily by
an increasingly successful, profitable and confident finance industry;12
increasing confidence in the workforce throughout the period about the future of the
economy, future job security and future prosperity;
a growth in the numbers of people employed in the Island and, in particular, in the
finance sector;
a growth in net immigration, coupled with the granting of more J-Category licences
for essential employees;
the rise in the number of J-Category residents coming to the market to buy property;
a relatively low underlying rate of inflation (excluding housing costs) as measured by
RPI(x);
a relaxation of the housing qualification period to 12 years;
a buoyant „buy-to-let‟ market, which saw many people seeking to acquire rental
properties as an investment and often as a form of retirement fund, rather than relying
on low performance pensions;
high salaries, principally in the finance sector, and a general increase in average
earnings throughout the period, which for all but the last 12 months was at a faster
rate than prices;
the availability of increasingly attractive, relaxed and abnormally generous mortgage
products from lenders to assist borrowers, including 100% mortgages;
an increase in the numbers of parents and relatives providing deposits for first-time
buyers;
changing attitudes among first-time buyers who might have been reluctant to
purchase previously, when property prices were flat;
greedy sellers asking unrealistic and over-inflated prices; and
tight controls on the supply of new housing and a general shortage of housing stock
arriving in the market.
Changes since mid-2008
Over the last few months since the middle of 2008, the situation has changed once again and
we have witnessed stabilisation and flattening of property values leading to the current
relatively depressed property market. This has been marked by the general unaffordability of
homes, restricted availability of mortgage funding, a considerable decrease in property
transactions compared with previous years and relatively few first-time buyers entering the
market. There can be little doubt that these have been and will continue to be challenging
times for people wishing to buy property.
There are numerous factors which have contributed to this change in circumstances in the
housing market, including:
economic uncertainty in the wake of the „Credit Crunch‟. This is reflected in a fragile
global economic situation, the UK in recession and an economic downturn locally.
All this has served to lower consumer confidence locally and raise people‟s fears for
the future;
an increasing possibility of unemployment and limitations on salaries and wages;
the over-priced housing market caused by the earlier rapid rises in house prices which
has made properties increasingly unaffordable and pushed them out of the price range
of many Islanders (despite recent downward re-adjustments to over-inflated prices);
many homeowners not wishing to sell in a falling market;
12
The finance industry is the Island‟s principal industry, is responsible for over half the Island‟s total
economic output and employs nearly a quarter of the workforce. The industry, during that time,
emerged from a period of rapid change and adjustment and saw profits, salaries and employment rise
significantly.
39
prospective buyers holding back expecting to see market prices fall further;
restrictions on the availability of mortgage products from lenders, as a direct outcome
of the „Credit Crunch‟ and the associated World financial crisis - in particular, the
drying up of affordable mortgage funding for first-time buyers and those without
substantial equity;13
and
Other high costs associated with moving home, including legal fees.
4.2 Affordability
It is generally accepted that every household in the Island should have a decent home that
meets their requirements at a price within their means. However, the lack of affordable
homes in Jersey for people on modest incomes has become a serious concern in recent times.
Over the last three years, homes in Jersey have become less and less affordable, as average
property prices soared and rises in average earnings lagged behind. As a consequence of this
and more restrictive mortgage lending requirements, most people wishing to purchase there
first home have been and are unable to fulfil their aspirations. Reduced affordability is also
reflected by a marked reduction in turnover of properties compared with previous years.14
It
is also interesting to note from JASS 2009 that the most frequently identified reason given for
household members planning to move away from the Island in the next 2 year was “Unable
to buy property” (48%).
The overall (mix-adjusted) average price of dwellings sold in Jersey (£497,000) during the
third quarter of 2009 means that the Island remains one of the most expensive places in
Europe to buy homes. Although the gap between prices here and in the UK had been
narrowing significantly up to 2007, this trend was then reversed (assisted by falls in the price
of dwellings sold in the UK up until the last few quarters). In mid-2009 the Jersey average
price was about 2½ times that in the UK overall (£197,000) and just over 1½ times higher
than in Greater London (£308,000).
It is important to recognise that Jersey is not alone with its affordability problem. A
publication in 2007 by the National Housing Federation entitled “Home Truths” reported that
the average house price in England was nearly 11 times average earnings and in London it
was 13 times average incomes.
Despite a recent stabilisation in house prices, the average price of a 3-bedroom house
recorded in Jersey in mid-2009 (£516,000) was the equivalent of 16.5 times average annual
earnings for full-time workers (i.e. £31,000 @ June 2008). This represents a significant
change from the situation in June 2006, when the average price of a 3-bedroom house was
only £364,000 and the equivalent of 13 times average annual earnings of approximately
£28,000. The equivalent figures for a 1-bedroom flat in mid-2009 (£225,000) and mid 2006
(£176,000) would represent 7.2 times and 6.3 times average annual earnings. Clearly, this
shows that buying a home for many in Jersey would involve borrowing very high multiples of
income.
The situation in respect of affordable homes in Jersey was addressed in the report on the 2007
Housing Needs Survey and the findings were reviewed in the previous „Planning for Homes‟,
13
Increasingly tight credit conditions from mortgage lenders who are unwilling to take risks, have
included lower salary income multiples (typically 5-times salary), demands for substantial deposits in
order to secure favourable / competitive lending rates, and stringent checks on the creditworthiness of
customers. This has meant that many people wishing to enter the market have been unable to secure
mortgages and/or have seen their aspirations disappear, although there have been some recent
successes under the Jersey Homebuy shared equity scheme. 14
The seasonally adjusted turnover in the third quarter of 2009 was more than a third below the long-
term average prior to mid-2008.
40
November 2006. More recently, the topic has been covered in a published report
commissioned by the Minister for Planning and Environment entitled: “Affordable Housing
as a Proportion of Private Housing Development”, Kelvin MacDonald, June 2009. The report
looks at two ways of defining affordability, based on:
The relationship between earnings and house prices; and
The proportion of household income to be spent on rent and/or mortgage payments.
In the post „Credit Crunch‟ world up to mid-2009, multiples of five times income have been
the maximum generally available from mortgage lenders in Jersey with higher multiples
generally regarded as too much of a risk. In addition to this, mortgage lenders have typically
required deposits of 15-20%. The Kelvin MacDonald report provides evidence to suggest
that no properties are affordable in Jersey at standard income: debt ratios (i.e. 1:5) for those
on average incomes. It also suggests that if 50% is taken as the maximum proportion of net
income that should go on housing, then average income households cannot afford the price of
a 1-bedroom flat or any other housing type.
The Review of Social Housing in Jersey, July 2009 commissioned by the Housing Minister
(The Whitehead report) also tackles the question of worsening affordability. It provides
evidence of the position for households in different income ranges at the end of 2008 which
suggests that:
Households in the lowest income quintile (under £17,500 per annum) could not afford
to purchase;
Households in the second income quintile (£17,500 - £28,000 per annum) could only
afford a 1-bedroom flat in the lowest house price quartile;
Households in the third income quintile (£28,000 - £40,000 per annum) could
(barely) afford the average 1-bedroom flat and could only afford a home with two
bedrooms by buying a flat in the lowest quintile of prices;
Only those in the two upper income quintiles (above £40,000 per annum) can hope to
buy a house as a family home.
The conclusion drawn in the Review is that younger households, single people and those on
lower incomes cannot afford to become owner occupiers and will have to rent, unless they
have access to significant savings or loans from parents or others.
The Kelvin MacDonald report highlights a requirement for more regular and in-depth
information on the need for affordable housing in Jersey (e.g. a properly regulated and unified
housing waiting list). Notwithstanding the lack of clear information currently available, it
suggests that, as a working hypothesis, a mid-point between the numbers on the first-time
buyers list and the latent demand demonstrated in the 2007 Housing Needs Survey (800-1,000
homes) could be used to indicate demand for affordable homes. In doing so, it puts forward
as an interim indication a need for about 900 affordable homes. This represents
approximately 33% of the overall requirements for 2,715 new homes (2008-2012) identified
in the Housing Needs Survey (i.e. based on a 10-Year Qualification Period and average net
annual in-migration of +150 households). It also represents approximately 45% of the
identified overall requirements for 2,000 new homes (2009-2013) included in the draft 2009
Island Plan.
Clearly, the issue of supply and demand of affordable homes will remain a priority for the
States and must be kept under close scrutiny. Any unsustainable distortions in the market
must be properly addressed (e.g. through more affordable housing initiatives, extra public
spending and faster delivery of land), if the aspirations of a generation of would-be home
owners are not to be dashed and we are to avoid a growth in the numbers of people living in
unsuitable and difficult housing circumstances.
41
4.3 Key Workers
The plight of public sector key workers in Jersey is an emerging issue, which is inextricably
linked with the affordability of homes available locally.
The term „key worker‟ is used to describe a public sector employee who is considered to
provide an essential service. It is often used in the United Kingdom in the context of those
essential workers who may find it difficult to buy property in the area where they work. In
particular, it has become more prominent as escalating house prices resulted in a gap between
household income and the cost of housing. Many local authorities and other public sector
bodies (especially in London and the South East, where a "Key worker living scheme"
operates) face major problems recruiting and retaining their workers. Many of these workers
are on lower levels of pay than the private sector and in most cases the social rented sector is
unable to provide low cost housing for rent or shared ownership. The response to these
concerns has been the development of initiatives designed to house key workers, including
low-cost loans and shared ownership schemes.
In the UK, those defined as key workers generally include:
Clinical National Health Service staff
Teachers and nursery nurses
Police officers, Community Support Officers and some civilian
police staff
Prison officers and some other Prison staff
Probation Service staff
Social workers, educational psychologists and therapists
Local Authority Planners
Firefighters
Connexions Personal Advisers
Some Ministry of Defence personnel
Environmental Health Officers
Highway Agency Traffic Officers
The definition is sometimes extended to include those support staff without whom the above
roles may struggle to function. The term was also initially used in mental health services to
identify the health professionals responsible for the coordination of care under CPA (Care
Programme Approach), but has since been replaced in 1999 by the term Care Co–ordinator.
The above definition would seem to fit Jersey‟s circumstances well. As an Island economy,
Jersey has a significant reliance on specialist labour migrating to the Island to provide public
services, which are vital to its continued success. Nowhere is this more apparent than in our
Health Service, where large proportions of our medical staff are migrants to the Island.
Key workers generally fall within the classification of essentially employed and are afforded
the opportunity to rent and in some cases purchase residential accommodation classified for
occupation by persons qualifying by virtue of Regulation 1(1)(a – j) of the Housing General
Provisions (Jersey) Regulations 1970, as amended. Nurses are given an additional concession
(reflecting the generally lower salaries) of being able to occupy residential accommodation
suitable for their needs which normally would be reserved for persons qualifying under
Regulation 1(1)(a – h) of the aforementioned regulations. However, they cannot qualify for
social housing, nor can they access affordable housing such as those properties restricted to
first time buyers or Jersey Homebuy.
As a consequence of the difficulties associated with access to suitable and affordable homes,
Health & Social services are experiencing significant difficulties in recruiting and retaining
nursing staff. This is reflected to an extent in the age of the workforce, which is shown in
42
Figure 3.15
The problems are also compounded by the increase in people leaving the nursing
profession and predicted shortages of nursing staff in the UK over the next twenty years.16
The majority of staff leaving the profession in Jersey do so in their mid to late 40‟s. To-date,
the reasons given for leaving have proven difficult to quantify accurately. However, it is
expected that they relate to a desire to make a final career move which allows them to make
more permanent provision for their housing.
Figure 3: Age Profile of Nursing Staff Employed by Health and Social Services in Jersey.
% HSS Registered Nurses by 5 year age range
under 25
26-30
31-35
36-40
41-45
46-50
51-55
56-60
61-65
over 65
0.1%
7%
14%
17%
18%
19%
14%
8%2%
Health & Social Services operate approximately 200 units of residential accommodation. The
vast majority of these (160) are single-room units and most of them are in shared houses (85
units) and bedsits (65 units). There are only 10 purpose-built 1 bedroom flats in the stock.
Anecdotal evidence points to a stock which is out of kilter with the needs of nursing staff, the
demographic make up which has changed over the years. This lack of „in house‟
accommodation suitable for the workforce means that nursing staff must source
accommodation from the private rented sector. The annual rates of pay for Senior Staff
Nurses in Jersey presently range from approximately £33,500 to £35,550 (Grades 4/1 to 4/4)
and nurses transferring from the UK commence at the bottom of this scale and progress
through the grades on an annual basis. As a consequence, newcomers will, certainly on single
incomes, find it almost impossible to purchase property other than the very smallest units at
the bottom end of the market.
Unfortunately, information on the key worker accommodation issue is limited at present and
further work is necessary to quantify housing requirements. The States will also need to
decide how it wishes to address the matter. The Kelvin MacDonald report suggests there will
be “…the need to consider key worker housing both in terms of public sector subsidies to
workers and in terms of possible links between Jersey‟s migration policy and affordable
housing…”.
15
Figures produced by Health & Social Services shows that over half of the almost 800 strong nursing
workforce are over 40 years of age (average 44 yrs). Only 1% of the nursing workforce is under 25
years of age. 16
There are presently more people leaving the nursing profession than there are joining and it is
predicted that the shortage in nursing staff will grow from 2011 peaking at 2030. It is predicted that by
2011 there will be up to 14,000 nursing vacancies in the UK National Health Service.
43
4.4 Private Sector Rents Landlords in the private rented sector provide accommodation for younger people, single
people and those on lower incomes who cannot afford to become owner occupiers (i.e.
approximately 34% of households). In the last Census (2001), this tenure group represented
approximately 22% of private households and 60% of those who rent. The Private Sector
Rental Index, which measures average rents granted during each quarter in the private sector,
has recently been introduced into the Jersey House Price Index Reports. This shows that
average rents increased by about 4% between 2002 and 2003 and then remained relatively
stable up to 2006. However, the annual rate of increase rose to 8% in 2007 and 10% in 2008.
The latest figures for the third quarter of 2009 indicate that average rents (from new consents)
were about 2% higher than the corresponding quarter in 2008 (and 6% lower than the
previous quarter), which suggests a reasonable balance in the rental market may have been
reached. The rises in 2008 and 2009 were probably a reflection of the private market coming
under increased pressure, because few first-time buyers were entering the property market and
more people who could not afford to buy were leasing accommodation. Over this last year to
September 2009, the average rent of houses has remained the same, whereas that for flats has
increased at a modest rate (about 4.5%).
Although the Housing Needs Survey indicates there will be surpluses throughout the private
rented sector over the 5 years to 2012, this is likely to be offset to some extent if the price of
first-time buyer accommodation remains high and prevents aspiring home owners from
purchasing.17
4.5 States Rental Waiting List The Housing Department is the largest provider of social rented homes on the Island and
currently administers over 4,500 such properties (74%) and has responsibility for
approximately 13,000 people. Table 18 provides a comparison of the current States rental
stock and the stock owned by other social housing landlords. The other major players in the
social housing market are Housing Trusts, which are now responsible for 20% of all social
rented dwellings (1,260 homes).
Table 18: Social Housing Stock in Jersey, by Landlord Type and Bed Size, end 2009
Landlord Bedsit 1-Bed 2-Bed 3-Bed 4+-Bed Total
Parishes 20 90 32 - - 142
Charities 108 54 4 15 11 192
Trusts 16 492 433 293 26 1,260
States 348 1,746 1,511 839 132 4,576
Total 492 2,382 1,980 1,147 169 6,170
8.0% 38.6% 32.1% 18.6% 2.7% 100.0% Source: States of Jersey Housing Department
Table 19 gives a breakdown of States rental stock in 2007, when the total stock was virtually
identical to that of today. It can be seen that there are a high number of flats relative to
family houses. It could be argued that this mix appears generally appropriate, given the
increasing numbers of retired people who are likely to require social rented accommodation
in the years to come. However, it must be borne in mind that many flats have access
problems (e.g. few are on the ground floor, in many cases there is no lift access, and where
there are lifts some are becoming increasingly unreliable). Furthermore, the majority of flats
are 1-bedroom and it could be argued that many elderly people who will require flats in
future would be better served by 2-bedroom flats to allow for visitors and carers to stay.
17
The Housing Needs Survey estimates that 50% of first-time buyer demand over the 5 years to 2012
will come from households currently in the private rented sector.
44
Table 19: Composition of States Rental Stock, 2007 Accommodation Size Number of Units
(Ground Floor or Lift
serviced)
Percentage of total units
(Ground floor or lift
serviced)
Bedsit 369 (87) 8% (1.9%)
1-Bedroom Flats 1,593 (521) 34.6% (11.3%)
2-Bedroom Flats 1,158 (294) 25.2% (6.4%)
3-Bedroom Flats 123 2.7%
1-Bedroom Houses 86 1.9%
2-bedroom Houses 388 8.4%
3-Bedroom Houses 752 16.3%
4-Bedroom Houses 120 2.6%
5+ Bedroom Houses 13 0.3%
Total 4602
Source: Housing Department, Social Housing Property Plan, 2007 - 2016
The Housing Department‟s main aim is to provide long-term, sustainable and affordable
housing to those who are least able to secure suitable accommodation through rental or
purchase in the open market. These include lower income and vulnerable residentially
qualified households who require income subsidies (approx. 64%) and subsidies in the form
of below market rents to afford a decent home and standard of living. The vast majority of its
tenants are likely to be lifelong renters. The Housing Department maintains a rental waiting
list for its properties and access to social rental stock is tightly controlled. The allocation
criteria are targeted at those in most need, including:
People with medical, physical or mental disabilities, who need special types of
housing, but who cannot afford such accommodation in the private sector;
Families with dependent children on relatively low incomes; and
People aged 50 or over on relatively low incomes.
As alluded to earlier, restrictions on eligibility and financial means testing (which restricts
eligible households to the lower 40% of incomes), effectively reduce the proportion of
households eligible for States rental housing (or nomination to Housing Trusts) to about 20%
of the population.
In general terms, then, the „States Rental Waiting List‟ reflects the demand for housing by
those in greatest need. However, the List has also long been regarded as a good „barometer‟
of the overall housing market and as a general indicator of relative pressure on the housing
market. Whilst an argument might be made for this, it is important to recognise that numbers
coming onto the list will reflect / be influenced by a range of factors, including:
eligibility restrictions;
the level of rents;
the differential between States rents and private sector rents;
the price of local housing on the open market;
the availability of suitable affordable homes in the Private Sector to rent and
purchase;
the future planned supply of States rental and housing trust homes;
the development of first-time buyer homes;
improved health and longevity;
reductions in the residential qualifying period for in-migrants;
unemployment levels and the associated emigration of lower income families; and
the actual size of the waiting list (a shorter list will encourage more to apply).
45
The level of rents is particularly significant, because the size of the waiting list will always be
boosted where States rents are artificially held below market values. With this in mind,
former Housing Committees sought for many years to set States rents at a reasonable but not
excessive discount to the open market of about 10%. However, rises in property values
combined with concerns about inflationary pressures and the Income Support bill have seen
differentials increase with average States rents drifting down to perhaps 20% (and in some
cases below 30%) of market levels.18
Figure 4: States Rental Waiting & Transfer List (at year end), 2004 to 2009.
Year End Waiting List and Transfer List totals 2004 - 2009
192
265
233 234
292
385
433
461
430440
343 335
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Year
Nu
mb
er
of
Ap
plicati
on
s
Waiting List Transfer List
Source: Housing Department Records
The year end statistics for the rental waiting and transfer lists between 2004 and 2009 are set
out in Figure 4. The figures show a substantial decrease in waiting list levels from the peak
registration of 900 families and individuals at the beginning of the 1990‟s. A dramatic
improvement between 1990 and 1996 coincided with an extensive rental and first-time buyer
building programme (see Section 6.1, Table 23) and the introduction of the „Private Sector
Rent Rebate Scheme‟, which enabled many households to remain in private sector rented
accommodation. Between 1996 and 1999 there was once again a rise in waiting list numbers
as the Category A building programme reduced and more attention was given to
refurbishing/redeveloping outworn estates of social rented housing. From the start of 2000 the
situation again improved significantly and demand for social rented housing (on the waiting
list) declined to a new historic low of 192 individuals and families at the end of 2004.
Although the waiting list has been higher since then, it remained relatively stable and at
historically low levels over the next 3 years to the start of 2008. However, since then, it has
risen significantly by 25% during 2008 and a further 32% by the end of 2009 when there were
385 individuals and families on the List. Table 20 gives details of how the waiting list has
progressed over the last 6 years and shows how the number of people being found homes to
rent via the States‟ waiting list has been at slightly lower levels in 2007, 2008 and 2009. This
is a result of a number of factors, including the large scale regeneration projects at Le Squez
and Le Marais, the loss of 76 homes at Ann Court (linked to the realisation of the Town Park
and, more recently, the North of St. Helier Master Plan).
18
Source: Housing Department
46
Table 20: States Rental Waiting List, start 2004 to end 2009
Year Waiting List
at Year Start
New Applications Housed through
Existing Stock, or
nominated to
Housing Trusts, or
cancelled *1 (families / individuals
housed from waiting list)
Waiting List
at Year End
2004 275 345 428 (307) 192
2005 192 354 281 (263) 265
2006 265 443 475 (270) 233
2007 233 421 420 (207) 234
2008 234 349 291 (235)*3 292*2
2009 292 640 547 (254) 385 Notes:
*1 People may later be cancelled from the list where they, for example, are adequately housed, leave the
Island of are found to no longer qualify.
*2 The former Housing Committee took the view that a reasonable medium term target waiting list should
be between 100-200 families and individuals
*3 In 2008, 38 individuals and families on the States Rental Waiting List were housed by Housing Trusts.
Source: Housing Department Records
Breakdown of Waiting List Information
Of the 385 families and individuals on the Waiting List at the end of 2009, 23 (6%) were
considered to be in urgent need of re-housing (i.e. group 1). There are a variety of reasons for
this, including ill health, sub-standard accommodation and overcrowding. The waiting list of
existing tenants needing to move to alternative accommodation stood at 335 individuals or
families at the end of 2009.
Evidence from the current „Waiting List‟ and „Tenant Transfer List‟ at the end of 2009
suggests that the largest net demand in the social rented sector (45%) is for 312 one-bedroom
units. Of those waiting for such accommodation, 62 individuals/couples were under-
occupying larger units within the stock, so blocking units for others on the waiting list or
seeking a transfer. In its latest Property Plan Update Report for 2009, which was published as
part of the 2009 Annual Performance Report, the Housing Department makes it clear that the
greatest demand by far remains for ground floor or lift-serviced units. At the time, net
demand for 2-bedroom units represented 40% of the total net demand and the net requirement
for 3- and 4-bedroom family homes was relatively low (106 homes or 15% of total demand).
Of course, these figures represent a snapshot in time and are not necessarily sufficient to
provide a true/accurate indication of the type of dwelling units required over the period up to
the end of 2012.
A prime target of the former Housing Committee, as set out in the 2002 Housing Strategy was
to “reduce the States Rental Waiting List to below 100 by 2006 with a waiting period of less
than 6 months for all urgent cases”. Clearly, this has not been achieved, but as alluded to
earlier, the waiting list did remain relatively stable and at low levels up to the start of 2008.
Although there has been a significant increase in the size of the List from 2008, this has been
matched with a corresponding reduction in the level of the transfer list, as demonstrated
earlier in Figure 2. As a consequence, the overall level of demand fell by around 5% during
2008, before rising again by 13% in 2009. Of particular concern is the significant increase in
the level of overall demand created as a result of the loss of 76 homes at Ann Court and the
worsening economic climate.
Previous „Planning for Homes‟ documents have included 5-year projections of the waiting
list, but this is not considered appropriate at the present time, given the many variables and
assumptions involved, the current uncertainty in the housing market and the on-going
47
fundamental review of the role of social rented housing. It is the case, however, that many of
the decisions in recent years relating to the States rental stock (including the proposed sale of
social rented homes to fund refurbishment; the acquisition of 400 new lifelong homes to
realign the stock and the proposals for Jersey Homebuy) were made on the understanding that
a significant number of new homes would be delivered from the sites zoned for Category A
housing purposes in 2008 (P75. 2008). As alluded to earlier, progress with these sites has
been slower than anticipated and this has naturally raised concerns. However, the position in
January 2009 was more encouraging, because 2 sites had planning permission (31 homes), 5
sites were the subject of planning applications (approx 137 homes) and 1 site had received
preliminary advice prior to onward sale (approximately 178 homes). Clearly, it is necessary
to assist / encourage the satisfactory completion of these homes in the expected timeframe.
The Waiting List and Requirements for New Homes Using the information from the States Rental Waiting List to determine future requirements
for new social rented homes is fraught with difficulties. It can be argued, for example, that
the Rental Waiting List requirement might represent something of a conservative figure,
given that an increasingly high proportion of social rented accommodation is provided by the
Island‟s housing trusts and associations who operate their own lists. In addition and perhaps
more importantly, it should be recognised that the Rental Waiting List takes no account of:
the size and nature of the existing public sector stock; the mix of existing tenants;
demographic changes and the future plans of the Housing Minister.
In any event, it is also important to note that the current States rental waiting list, with its very
stringent allocations criteria, is too constrained to be able to give an accurate estimate of the
true level of need for affordable rental housing. As alluded to earlier, restrictions in the range
of household types eligible for States housing mean that roughly half of all households in
Jersey are ineligible. The means test further restricts eligible households to the lower 40% of
incomes. In effect, only about 20% of the population is eligible to be considered for States
housing (or nomination to a Housing Trust) and, within this group, vacancies are only
allocated to those in the greatest housing need.
Consequently, the overwhelming majority of social housing tenants are likely to be lifelong
renters. Even among those tenants who leave States housing every year, nearly 80% continue
to rent by moving into care, to the Cottage Homes, to Housing Trust accommodation, or to
the private rented sector. Only 20 or so tenants who move each year (approx. 10%) move to
owner occupation. The relatively static population in social housing inevitably means that
turnover is limited, particularly in the types of accommodation which are in greatest demand
(i.e. 1- and 2-bedroom homes for older persons). Added to this, demographic changes mean
that there is no longer the right mix of stock to meet predicted patterns of future need,
particularly for the older and aging population, in the medium to long term. As highlighted
earlier in section 3.8, the Housing Department considers, and has evidence to confirm, that
the housing needs of people beyond normal working age represent the biggest and most
immediate planning challenge. Meeting this need was one of the fundamental drivers for the
States rezoning land for Category A housing in July 2008 (P.75.2008). As referred to earlier,
there are concerns about the delays in bringing forward schemes for lifelong homes on many
of the sites in question. It is imperative, therefore, that every effort is made to encourage and
assist progress throughout the planning process, if the current concerns are to be allayed and
the developments are to be realised in the required timeframe.
In view of the above, the urgent need to reinvest in the existing States social rented housing
stock and the strategic aim of encouraging increased levels of home ownership, the Property
Plan provides for the sale of properties over the next 10 years. These include 27
„mismatched‟ rental housing units to be sold on the open market and some 800 rental units to
48
be sold to social housing tenants on a deferred payment basis, or at full value, with first-time
buyer conditions attached.
The net effect of the proposed sales of mainly family homes combined with the proposed
acquisition of 400 Lifelong homes for the over 55‟s will be to shift the mix of units, by
reducing the proportion of family units and increasing the number of smaller units for
childless and older households.
The recently published report by the Cambridge Centre for Housing and Planning Research,
„A Review of Social Housing in Jersey‟, was commissioned inter alia to establish the nature
and extent of the need for social housing in the Island and determine the levels of currently
unmet need and known future need. It found that the majority of households who are eligible
to apply for social housing do so and are actually accommodated. It goes on to conclude that
“it is an outcome of the allocations rules that there appears to be little current unmet
demand, as reflected in waiting lists and the estimates of future requirements” (i.e. those
requirements identified in the 2007 Housing Needs Survey). However, the Review also
found, based on evidence regarding incomes and housing circumstances, that there may be
considerable unmet housing needs among lower income working age but childless households
who are currently ineligible for social housing, as well as among those with incomes just
under the eligibility criterion for social housing. As a consequence, it expresses concern
about current housing policy, which envisages a decline in the social rented sector and
increasing emphasis on the provision of accommodation for older households.
4.6 An Industry View on the Private Sector Property Market In an effort to obtain a better understanding of the characteristics and general state of the local
housing market, discussions took place with several leading estate agents in November 2009.
The general consistency in the views expressed during these discussions would suggest they
were reasonably representative of the opinions held throughout the estate agency sector.
However, it is accepted that some of the views expressed here may not be universally held by
all the Island‟s estate agents and others closely involved in the housing market.
In general terms, the agents contacted described the market variously as “flat”, “slow”
“recessionary”, “difficult” and “tough”. They acknowledge that prices have generally been
static and have fallen in real terms over the last 15 months or so (after significant price rises
between 2006 and mid 2008) and that the market is going through a difficult period with low
levels of activity. However, some agents have suggested that turnover is better than the same
time in the previous year and that there are still a considerable number of people interested in
and/or intent on buying property. This interest tends to be concentrated at properties in the
middle to higher price range.
The current low number of property transactions is primarily put down to restrictions on the
availability of mortgage finance and the cost of borrowing (including a requirement for large
deposits). Some agents also pointed to the lack of affordable homes and said that the price of
property is beyond the means of many with aspirations to buy. A few agents have suggested
that the situation is compounded by a lack of confidence and nervousness among potential
buyers, because of the challenging economic climate and on-going concerns about the future
of the Island‟s economy and local employment prospects (including job security, job
opportunities and salaries/wages). Others have pointed to a restricted supply of homes in the
market and/or the lack of any oversupply. However, one area that appears to have been doing
a little better is the „Buy-to-Let‟ market. It seems that there are still a significant number of
mostly „money-rich‟ local people who have been investing in the property market for a source
of income (i.e. 4 -5% return) and as an alternative to banking their money, or investing in
stock market based products. The majority of this investment appears to have been in
apartments.
49
Most agents acknowledge that they are having to work harder and invest more on marketing
and, as one put it, on “old fashioned agency work”. The market is generally seen as a price
sensitive buyer‟s market, because the relatively small pool of buyers is able to negotiate on
price. It is generally acknowledged that the slowing of the market has resulted in more
realistic pricing of properties for sale and it is clear that any overtly over-priced properties
will not attract offers.
The residential property market can be divided into a number of distinct sectors, which are
addressed below:
Old Conversion Flat Market (£150,000 - £280,000) These include converted period buildings both in town and out-of-town. There seems to be a
general consensus that this part of the market has been particularly badly hit and the majority
of conversions are increasingly difficult to sell, especially where they are without parking or
outdoor amenity space and/or are poorly located. A major reason for this, cited by the agents,
is the continuing reluctance of lenders to offer mortgages to first-time buyers. However, it is
also acknowledged that conversions have become generally less attractive in recent times
because of the range of purpose-built flats that have and are continuing to come onto the
market, which are the preferred option for those who can afford them (especially where prices
are not too dissimilar).
Properties at this bottom end of the market will still sell and this is an area where investors are
looking at buying to let. However, conversions remain the most price-sensitive and sales are
price-driven. One agent even suggested that, in the present market, if 20% was knocked off
the price of some conversions it would still not guarantee a sale. However, it seems that
higher standard good quality conversions which are priced right will continue to attract
purchasers.
Lower-Priced One-Bedroom Accommodation (£200,000 - £350,000) This includes the modern studio flat market such as the Spectrum development (£150,000 -
£250,000), the modern 1-bedroom flat market (£220,000 - £290,000), the modern 2-bedroom
apartment market (£240,000 - £350,000) and small town cottages/houses with limited
amenities (£270,000 - £300,000). Traditionally, demand for these properties has been driven
by a range of smaller household types including:
first-time buyers (as a stepping stone onto the housing ladder);
young single people wishing to set up their own home (rather than remain with their
family or share with friends);
divorcees;
older people (looking to downsize to smaller low-maintenance accommodation);
parents whose children have left home (again looking to downsize); and
local and UK investors seeking to purchase on a buy-to-let basis.
As with conversions, this market is suffering badly from the funding issues facing first-time
buyers. However, some agents have pointed to noticeable / continuing interest shown by
people seeking buy-to-let properties as a medium to long-term investment. Of course, the
price of the properties remains a primary concern of prospective purchasers who are
negotiating hard in this respect. One agent has suggested that this has led to a fall in prices
and a greater sense of realism among vendors.
There is a general agreement among the agents that the market for small flats has been subject
to changing perceptions among prospective buyers in recent years and that there is generally
less resistance now to living in flats. The agents acknowledge that many first-time buyers
continue to harbour preferences for buying houses with a garage and garden. However, they
also point out that first-time buyers are generally realistic about what they can afford in the
50
current market and many are resigned to the idea of purchasing a flat as a first step on the
housing ladder.
Mid-High Price Homes (£450,000 to £1million+) This is the Island‟s biggest market sector and, historically, the lower end of this sector
(£450,000 to £500,000) has been the busiest market with the most turn-around. It generally
comprises 2- and 3-bedroom houses (including ex-States loan properties and proposed new-
build first-time buyer houses) and good quality well-located apartments. The agents have
reported that this part of the market has been struggling and one agent went as far as saying it
is now “stagnant”. Prices have stabilised in the last 15 months or so, after several years of
run-away price rises, and although they are starting to find a more acceptable level to
purchasers, some agents believe that there is still an element of over-pricing. Good property
in this category will sell, but the market is price sensitive. As a consequence, there is not a
large amount of property on the market and, it seems, people who do not have to sell are not
selling.
The main reason put forward for the lack of activity in this category is that the price of the
properties is out of reach of the target buyers. Most aspiring first-time buyers (including
those that would be coming out of apartments) have not been able to get affordable mortgage
funding and could not hope to realise the deposits and fees required to secure a purchase in
this price range. Indeed, it can be argued that the aspirations of most first-time buyers to
purchase a house (other than through Jersey Homebuy) have disappeared in the last year or
so, leaving flats / apartments as the only purchase option for many in the foreseeable future.
It seems that the limited numbers of transactions at the current time are principally by
investors who are buying for let.
Most of the agents have reported that the middle market for properties in the £650,000 to
£775,000 price range is where the majority of the activity is at present, albeit at relatively low
levels. This is generally the preserve of 2nd
and 3rd
time purchasers, but has increasingly
attracted investors. Some agents implied that this market is hampered by a lack of supply,
and that if more vendors come forward with houses and apartments which are priced right,
they will sell.
There are mixed messages coming from agents regarding activity in the top end of this part of
the market (currently £800,000 to £1,500,000). One agent suggests that these high-value
properties are where the activity is, and are mostly being bought with large mortgages by new
J-Category essential employees (who have been given dispensation to purchase) and local
residents in the professional sectors. Other agents talk of a market that used to be buoyant,
but which is now suffering from much reduced demand, as a consequence of the recession,
which is discouraging potential buyers from moving up the property ladder and resulting in
“Banks not recruiting”.
Most Expensive Properties (£1½million+) The luxury end of the Island‟s housing market has traditionally been the slowest sector. It is a
low volume market and properties generally take the longest to sell. Most of the agents have
reported that there has been plenty of interest in this part of the market over the last 12
months or so from wealthy people looking to come into the Island (11k‟s), in addition to
existing residents (including lawyers and accountants).
Private Rental Most agents report that the private rental market has been pretty strong with increased interest
shown over the last year. This has been fuelled by an increase in the number of younger
people wishing to set up their own home, including aspiring first-time buyers who are unable
to secure mortgage finance at this time. It is also assisted by a growth in the supply of private
51
rented accommodation as a result of private individuals investing in apartments, which are
then let. After strong rises in 2007 and 2008, rents have stabilised, albeit at lower levels than
some agents had anticipated. One agent reported that the market had slowed down in the last
month and there was a general consensus that there is currently enough supply.
Non-Qualified Accommodation The agents generally take the view that the market has and will continue to look after demand
in this sector. There seems to be a general consensus that supply is more than sufficient at
present and that this has been assisted by reductions in the residential qualification period and
a net loss of unskilled economic migrants in response to the challenging economic conditions.
It is recognised that there is still some poor quality accommodation at the bottom end of the
sector, but this has become more difficult to let, because of the level of choice now available
to tenants. The agents point to the improvements in the stock of accommodation over recent
years, which one agent claims is now comparable with private rental stock in the qualified
sector.
Future of the Residential Property Market The future of the market is very much a confidence issue and will ultimately depend on the
future of the economy. The agents are mostly adopting a wait and see attitude, although they
do not appear particularly positive about the immediate future of the property market. This
view seems to stem largely from uncertainty about the timing and extent of economic
recovery in the Island, the future prosperity of the finance industry, and the future actions of
mortgage lenders. The majority of agents believe that the market will remain very difficult
throughout 2010 and some believe it will slowly start to lift and show signs of recovery in
2011. They suggest that banks and finance companies will begin looking to find ways of
making mortgages easier to obtain for potential buyers, although they will also remain much
more cautious than they have been in the past.
All the agents contacted are of the view that the local property market is fundamentally sound
and sustainable in the long term and homes in Jersey will remain a safe asset, for as long as
the Island retains its status as a major off-shore finance centre.
Interestingly, one leading commentator on the mortgage scene in Jersey has recently reported
a more positive attitude among prospective buyers in the middle and upper areas of the
market since September and considers that the Island‟s property market “will return to a
certain degree of normality…”.19
He has pointed to some encouraging signs for the future of
the market, which he believes should begin to make an impact in 2010, including:
more upbeat commentary in the media on the economy;
more realistic prices being asked by vendors;
improvements to the existing mortgage lender product range;
a choice of very competitive mortgage rates for prospective purchasers with deposits
of 15-40% or more;
the reintroduction of 90% mortgage offers by leading lenders in the Island (albeit
with restrictive lending criteria that militates against most first-time buyers);
the introduction of extended mortgage terms up to the age of 70;
the introduction of a 100% guarantor mortgage (up to a maximum of £350,000);20
an improved buy-to-let mortgage option;
the return of private finance to the market, aimed at those who cannot obtain funds
from a bank or building society;
19
JEP Home Life, Property Review, Peter Seymour, December 2009 and January 2010 issues. 20
This is where borrowers are required to provide a property owning guarantor in Jersey, against
whose property lenders will register a charge equivalent to an agreed percentage of the mortgage that is
being guaranteed.
52
new mortgage lenders “on the horizon”, which will help produce a more competitive
mortgage market;
opportunities to negotiate competitive rates for legal fees;
the availability of huge reductions on stamp duty charged to first-time buyers; and
the increased likelihood of activity from wealthy immigrants from the UK.
This more positive outlook is reflected in the views of the Island‟s predominant property
developer. It remains more upbeat about future sales of its range of new quality products
(backed up by incentives) across the various parts of the market in which it has an interest.
5. ISLAND PLAN PROPOSALS FOR MEETING HOUSING
REQUIREMENTS / TARGETS
5.1 Qualified Sector Like the current Island Plan, the draft Island Plan concentrates on addressing the requirements
for new homes in the „qualified sector‟. In doing so, it makes provision for the supply of
2,550 new homes over the five year period 2009-2013, comprising 550 Category A and 2,000
Category B homes. The provision is made from a range of sources, as set out in Table 21
and relies heavily on opportunities presented by the St. Helier Waterfront, town regeneration
and private windfall developments elsewhere in the built-up area.
Table 21: Supply of Homes provided for in the Draft 2009 Island Plan, 2009-2013.
Supply Source Estimated Number of Units
Category A Category B Total 2002 Island Plan Category
A housing sites
125 - 125
2002 Island Plan
amendment: Lifelong and
first-time buyer homes
300 - 300
St. Helier Waterfront - 600 600
Town of St. Helier
regeneration
100 650 750
Windfall developments
elsewhere
100 750 850
Housing in Rural Centres
(Draft IP Policy H5)
25 - 25
Draft Island Plan Category
A Housing Sites
200 - 200
Less outworn sites (-300) - (-300)
Total 550 2,000 2,550
Source: States of Jersey – White Paper – Draft Island Plan, 2009
5.2 Unqualified Sector The 2001 Census suggests that 13% of private households in Jersey live in non-qualified
accommodation, which is split fairly evenly between tied (staff) accommodation, private
lodgings and registered lodging house accommodation. The draft Island Plan assumes that
the requirements in the „unqualified sector‟ will be provided for by development or
redevelopment, predominantly within the built-up area, as part of the day-to-day development
process. Such developments will be in accordance with the following draft policies:
Policy H6: „Housing Development within the Built-up Area‟;
Policy H8: „Registered Lodging Accommodation‟; and
Policy H9: „Staff and Key Agricultural Worker Accommodation‟.
53
6. SUPPLY
6.1 Completion Rates in the Qualified Sector Table 22 shows the number of completions of new homes in the qualified sector since 2002
and allows a comparison with past trends. The years 2002 and 2003 witnessed a boom in
residential construction work and impressive numbers of new homes were completed. Since
then, the number of completions has generally remained impressive, despite fluctuations in
purpose-built Category A completions. Although, there was a significant reduction in net
completions during 2008, this is offset by the large number of Category „A‟ homes which are
currently under construction and/or due to be completed during 2009 and 2010. The average
building rate during the last 7 years of approximately 580 new homes per year is very healthy.
Table 22: Housing Completions in Qualified Sector Completed Dwellings (net)
Year Purpose built
First-time
Buyer
Homes*5
Purpose built
Social
Rented
Homes
Purpose built
Category A
Completions
Other
Demand
Housing
(Category B)
Total
Completions
1986 107 40 147 232 379
1987 23 225 248 106 354
1988 108 136 244 103 347
1989 - 147 147 128 275
1990 17 130 147 289 436
1991 76 75 151 325 476
1992 139 130 269 159 428
1993 187 86 273 243 516
1994 81 197 278 175 453
1995 165 50 215 199 414
1996 15 70 85 224 309
1997 12 (137) (125) 142 17
1998 - 51 51 186 237
1999 79 78 157 240 397
2000 - 60 60 312 372
2001 59 26 85 367 452
Sub-total 1068 1364 2432 3430 5862
Ave. annual
completions
1986-2001
67
85
152
214*3
366*3
2002 92*2 290*1 382 483 865
2003 161*2 30*1 191 464 655
2004 52*2 59*1 111 349 460
2005 40*2 26*1 66 513 579
2006 80*2 207*1 287 435 722
2007 184*2 77*1 261 316 577
2008 68*2 (-14)*1 54 160 214
Sub-total 677 675 1,352 2,720 4,072
Ave. annual
completions
2002-2008
193
389*4
582*4
*1 see Appendix 1 for details
*2 see Appendix 2 for details *3 includes lodging and staff accommodation
*4 excludes lodging and staff accommodation
*5 now includes Jersey Homebuy
54
The average rate for purpose-built Category A and Category B homes during the 7 years to
the end of 2008 was 193 and 389 homes per year respectfully. However, the figures take no
account of the proportion of the completions currently included in Category B private
developments, which will have contributed to meeting identified Category A requirements.
Following investigations undertaken by officers of the Population Office and the Planning
Department, it is estimated that around 400 Category B homes completed over the same 7
years will have met identified needs for first-time buyer homes.21
The most recent of these
investigations estimated that 23 private Category B home completions met identified needs
for first-time buyer homes (i.e. 14%). The figures would suggest a revised average annual rate
of 250 or so Category A home completions in total over the 7 year period in question.
Most of the net increase in homes over this 7 year period (64%) was in the urban parishes of
St. Helier (43%), St. Saviour (9%) and St. Clement (12%), as indicated in Table 23 below.
This is very much in line with the „spatial strategy‟ for new development set out in the current
Island Plan, which promotes more sustainable development concentrated in urban areas.
Table 23: Net Completions of New Homes in the Qualified Sector, by Parish, 2002 – end 2008
Parish New Homes by Category Total Homes
Completed
%
Purpose Built
Category A*1
Category B
St. Brelade - 219 219 5.4
St. Clement 236 259 495 12.1
Grouville 17 90 107 2.6
St. Helier 687 1,063 1,750 43.0
St. John 40 81 121 3.0
St. Lawrence 33 262 295 7.2
St. Martin 64 66 130 3.2
St. Mary - 52 52 1.3
St. Ouen 42 88 130 3.2
St. Peter 82 232 314 7.7
St. Saviour 141 208 349 8.6
Trinity 10 100 110 2.7
TOTAL 1,352 2,720 4,072 100.0 *1 excluding contribution from private Category B developments.
Completions by Type and Size Table 24 gives an indication of the types and sizes of the homes which have been completed
for Category A and Category B purposes in 2008. The completions shown in Table 24 cover
a range of dwelling types and the net total figure of 214 homes is almost entirely due to house
completions. This continues a trend started in 2007 when 76% of completions in the qualified
sector were houses and is quite different from the years immediately preceding 2007 when the
majority of units completed were flats. There were very few retirement homes completed in
the period, with a notable exception being the retirement flats at the former Aquila Youth
Centre. Although completions were low in 2008, the figures do suggest a limited spread of
accommodation sizes and a heavy proportional concentration on 3-bedroom family homes.
21
The estimates take no account of small developments of less than 5 units, some of which might well
contribute to meeting first-time buyer demand. In calculating yield from individual sites, account
was taken of the location, the nature of the scheme and the potential price, and this was weighed
against broad assumptions about the range of prices which would allow for servicing the first-time
buyer market. In some cases prices were known, as schemes were either sold or in the process of
being sold. For each such investigation, background work has been undertaken on various sites that
have recently changed hands, to inform the process.
55
Table 24: Completions of New Homes in Qualified Sector, by Type and Size, 2008 Type of Home Size of Home Total
1-bed 2-bed 3-bed 4-bed 5-bed
+
Unspecified
Size
Category B Completions
Flats *1
23 16 (4) 1 - - 36
Houses *2
7 18 69 27 3 - 124
Unspecified
Dwellings / Units
- - - - - - -
Sub-Total 30 34 65 28 3 - 160
% 18.8 21.2 40.6 17.5 1.9 100.0
Category A Completions
Flats *1
(-1) (-38) (-3) - - - (-42)
Houses *2
- (-2) 93 5 - - 96
Unspecified
Dwellings / Units
- - - - - - -
Sub-Total (-1) (-40) 90 5 - - 54
% (1.9) (74.1) 166.7 9.3 - 100.0
TOTAL
29
(-6)
155
33
3
-
214
% 13.6 (2.8) 72.4 15.4 1.4 100.0 *1 includes apartments, studios, bedsits and maisonettes
*2 includes bungalows and cottages
6.2 Outstanding Commitments in the Qualified Sector Table 25 provides details of outstanding commitments for new homes in the „qualified sector‟
at the end of 2008 and illustrates that these are at good levels. One would expect that the
1,062 Category B homes under construction at the end of 2008 will all be complete well
before the end of 2012.22
The yield in this sector will also be supplemented by a proportion
of both the 508 homes which had existing consents (but had yet to start) and an unknown
number of proposed homes which will be granted consent during the four year period 2009 to
2012. It is not possible to accurately predict the likely yield of new homes by the end of 2012
from approved proposals that have yet to commence.
In contrast, one might reasonably expect that virtually all the 178 outstanding commitments
for first time buyer homes could be completed by the end of 2012, whether or not they were
under construction. This should also be true for the commitments for Lifelong homes
(approx. 350 homes) and other social rented homes (159 homes). However, as alluded to
elsewhere, there are some concerns about delays in bringing forward developments on
specifically zoned sites. As can be seen from Appendices 3, 4 and 5, the commitment figures
for Category A homes:
rely to a significant degree on the remnants of development sites rezoned for the
purpose under Policy H2 of the current Island Plan; and
the fields zoned by the States in July 2008, primarily for Lifelong Homes
(P.75/2008).
The current status of these sites is outlined in Appendix 11.
22
Recent investigations undertaken by officers of the Population Office and Planning Departments of
larger development proposals (+5 units) suggest that, if built, over 110 of these units are likely to meet
first-time buyer demand.
56
Table 25: Outstanding Commitments for New Homes in Qualified Sector, at end 2008
(N.B. Due to yield before end of 2012) Outstanding Planning Permissions Homes
under
construction
(Net) (b)
Other commitments which
may yield or involve loss
of units before the end of
2012
Total
(a+b+c)
Type of
Housing
No. of New Homes (Net) Definite,
Probable
and/or
Highly
possible
( c )
Other
possibles in
the time
frame
(d)
Planning
in
Principle
Permits
Planning,
Building or
Planning &
Building
Permits
Total No.
with
consent
(a)
Purpose built
conventional
first time
buyer (inc.
Homebuy)
- 40 40 81 57 - 178*2
Lifelong
Homes
(open market)
- - - 5 161 - 166*3
Lifelong
Homes
(social
rented)
- - - - 185 - 185*4
Other Social
Rented
housing
- 6 6 59 94 - 159*5
Total
Category A
- 46 46 145 497 - 688
Other demand
housing
(Cat B)*6
84 424 508*1 1,062 - - 1,570
Total (all
housing)
84 470 554 1,207 497 - 2,258
*1 net of permissions which have not been advanced for 4 years or more.
*2 see Appendix 6 for details.
*3 see Appendix 7 for details.
*4 see Appendix 8 for details.
*5 see Appendix 5 for details.
*6 These figures take no account of the potential 166 or so owner occupied homes which would be released when
the owners downsize to open market Lifelong homes.
Table 26 illustrates the availability of housing commitments by parish. As with completions
over the last 7 years, most of the residential commitments in the Island are concentrated in the
main urban parishes, including St. Helier (44%) and St. Saviour (11%). The relatively low
level of commitments in St. Clement (5%) is due, in part, to losses of homes associated with
redevelopment and refurbishment of outworn housing.
57
Table 26: Housing Commitments for New Homes in Qualified Sector, by Parish @ end 2008
Parish House
Type
Outstanding
Permissions
Homes under
construction
Other
Commitments
Total Commitments
No. %
St. Brelade
Cat B
F-t-b
Lifelong Homes
Social Rental
29
26
-
-
114
-
-
-
-
-
60
-
143
26
60
-
10.1
St. Clement
Cat B
F-t-b
Lifelong Homes
Social Rental
23
-
-
(19)
26
-
-
47
-
-
34
-
49
-
34
28
4.9
Grouville
Cat B
F-t-b
Lifelong Homes
Social rental
70
-
-
-
33
-
-
-
-
-
20
-
103
-
20
-
5.4
St. Helier
Cat B
F-t-b
Lifelong Homes
Social Rental
238
14
-
26
609
-
-
12
-
-
-
94
847
14
-
132
44.0
St. John
Cat B
F-t-b
Lifelong Homes
Social Rental
25
-
-
-
6
-
-
-
-
-
17
-
31
-
17
-
2.1
St. Lawrence
Cat B
F-t-b
Lifelong Homes
Social Rental
18
-
-
-
10
81
5
-
-
12
-
-
28
93
5
-
5.6
St. Martin
Cat B
F-t-b
Lifelong Homes
Social Rental
8
-
-
-
47
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
55
-
-
-
2.4
St. Mary
Cat B
F-t-b
Lifelong Homes
Social Rental
4
-
-
-
29
-
-
-
-
15
17
-
33
15
17
-
2.9
St. Ouen
Cat B
F-t-b
Lifelong Homes
Social Rental
31
-
-
-
47
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
78
-
-
-
3.5
St. Peter
Cat B
F-t-b
Lifelong Homes
Social Rental
23
-
-
-
46
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
69
-
-
-
3.1
St. Saviour
Cat B
F-t-b
Lifelong Homes
Social Rental
27
-
-
(1)
36
-
-
-
-
-
178
-
63
-
178
(1)
10.6
Trinity
Cat B
F-t-b
Lifelong Homes
Social Rental
12
-
-
-
59
-
-
-
-
30
20
-
71
30
20
-
5.4
TOTALS
Cat B
F-t-b
Lifelong Homes
Social Rental
GRAND TOTAL
508
40
-
6
554
1,062
81
5
59
1207
-
57
346
94
497
1,570
178
351
159
2,258
100.0
Commitments by Type and Size Table 27 gives an indication of the types and sizes of the homes to be provided from known
Category A commitments and from Category B developments under construction at the end
of 2008. The commitments cover a range of dwelling types and include about 1,300 flats and
about 960 houses. They also suggest that currently in the pipeline, there are significant
additional supplies of 1- and 2-bedroom accommodation (predominantly flats) and very
healthy supplies of 3- and 4-bedroom family homes (predominantly houses).
58
Table 27: Outstanding Commitments for New Homes in Qualified Sector, by Type and Size, at end
2008 Type of Home Size of Home Total
1-bed 2-bed 3-bed 4-bed 5-bed
+
Unspecified
Size Category B Homes with Permission and/or Under Construction
Flats *1 450 491 37 1 - 1 980
Houses *2 48 125 233 141 32 11 590
Sub-Total 498 616 270 142 32 12 1,570
Known Social Rented Commitments (excluding Lifelong Homes)
Flats *1 77 31 - - - - 108
Houses *2 (19) 10 47 12 1 - 51
Sub-total 58 41 47 12 1 - 159
Known First-time Buyer Commitments
Flats*1 - - - - - - -
Houses*2 - - 160 18 - - 178
Sub-total - - 160 18 - - 178
Known Lifelong Homes Commitments
Flats*1 - 214 - - - - 214
Houses*2 - 137 - - - - 137
Sub-Total - 351 - - - - 351
TOTAL 539 1,008 477 172 33 12 2,258 *1 includes apartments, studios, bedsits and maisonettes
*2 includes bungalows and cottages
6.3 Outstanding Commitments for Older Persons’ Housing At the end of 2008 there were outstanding commitments for approximately 350 homes aimed
at the older members of the community. These might be variously described as Lifelong
Homes, retirement homes, sheltered units and „homes for the elderly‟ and they are either for
sale in the private sector or provided in the social rented sector (i.e. by Parishes, Trusts and
the States). The homes in question are set out in Table 28.
Table 28: Outstanding Commitments for Older Persons’ Housing @ end 2008 Address Number
Of Homes
Description
La Providence, Bel Royal, St. Lawrence 5 over 55‟s units / lifetime
homes
Victoria Cottage Homes, St. Saviour‟s Hill, St.
Saviour 1
(2)
retirement homes
Field 274, La Lourderie, St. Clement 34 est. Lifelong Homes
Fields 516, 516A, 517 and 518, St. Saviour 178 est. Lifelong Homes
Lesquende, Les Quennevais, St. Brelade 60 est. Lifelong Homes
Field 578, Trinity 6 est. Lifelong Homes
Fields 818 and part Field 873, Trinity 14 Lifelong Homes
Field 148, Rue des Maltieres, Grouville 20 est. Lifelong Homes
Fields 561 and 562, St. Mary 17 Lifelong Homes
Field 605, St. John 17 est. Lifelong Homes
TOTAL 350
In addition to the commitments listed in Table 28, a further 27No. retirement flats were
completed in 2008 at the site of the former Aquila Youth Centre and 46No. new over 55‟s
properties were sold in 2008 and 2009 at the L‟Hermitage development, Beaumont, St. Peter.
6.4 Completions and Outstanding Commitments in Unqualified Sector There is currently a lack of good, comprehensive data on the supply of non-qualified
accommodation. However, when the new system for monitoring and regulating migration is
put in place, there will be much better information available.
59
Registered Lodging Accommodation All Registered Lodging Houses, bank and tourism related staff accommodation are the subject
of inspections, to comply with the Lodging Houses (Registration) (Jersey) Law, 1962, as
amended. This is followed up by a report from the Lodging House Inspector, who comments
on the condition of the stock and any changes in circumstances. Historically, over the last 20
years, the number of registered lodging houses in Jersey has grown as a direct response to
increases in demand, in periods when the growth in jobs has led to an influx of migrants,
putting pressure on the non-qualified sector of the housing market. In mid-2009, there were
256 privately owner registered Lodging Houses, 6 bank staff hostels and 15 tourism related
staff hostels. The Lodging Houses provides accommodation for 4,322 adults and 1,082
children in the open market sector. The current number of Registered Lodging Houses
represents a 6% growth from the 241 registered in 2004/5 when the local economy was just
about to embark on its previous boom. Interestingly, during the same period, the number of
lodging house beds only increased by 124 (2%). This no doubt reflects a continuation of the
process of property refurbishment and modernisation aimed at improving the quality of
accommodation on offer.
Since 2004/5 bank staff hostels have been closing (i.e. falling from 14 to the present 6 and is
expected to reduce to 3 shortly) and many of these have also been upgraded to full lodging
houses. This was initially due to a surge in outsourcing „back office‟ functions to other
jurisdictions and the more recent switches have occurred as banks again look to cut costs due
to the uncertain economic climate. In the last couple of years, a number of tourism related
staff hostels have also been converted to full lodging houses as the associated restaurants and
hotels have closed (e.g. Picardy – Hotel Normandy; 17, Royal Crescent; and Don Road –
Bistro Frere). Examples of other recent conversions to Registered Lodging Houses over the
last two years (excluding former registered bank staff hostels and tourism related staff
hostels) include:
Cranworth Nursing Home;
Roslyn Guest House;
L‟Etacquerel Beach apartments;
Linga Longa Guest House;
Grosvenor House (Office Space);
Burlington House, St. Saviour‟s Road (office space);
Talana Guest House, Le Mont du Gouray, St. Martin;
Ingleby, Bellozanne Road (old person‟s residential home);
Brise de Mer (unregistered bank accommodation).
There are also several proposals in the pipeline to convert properties to registered Lodging
Houses, including:
Grantez Farm, St. Ouen (self catering apartments);
Caverna Guest House, Simon Place;
Almorah Hotel (guest house);
Crown Lodge, Water‟s Edge Hotel, Trinity (planning advice given in July 2009);
Marina Hotel, Havre des Pas – subject to planning approval;
The Coach House, Washington Hotel, Palmyra Road – subject to planning approval.
On the other side of the equation, there are a small number of Registered Lodging Houses
which are due to be converted to 1(1)(a-h) accommodation, although only one such
conversion occurred in 2008 (i.e. Bouley Bay Apartments).
Information from the latest Lodging House Inspector‟s report (2009) points to: a busy lodging
house market which is fully let; more high standard properties in the market; generally
improving standards of registered premises; and a growing market for high standard
accommodation. However, towards the end of 2009 the overall demand picture appeared to
60
be changing slightly, with more vacant units available and keener pricing apparent. It is
likely that this is a result of the changing economic climate and reduced job opportunities for
newer migrants. Despite this, it is clear from the above list that new, quality accommodation
continues to come on stream.
Overall, it would appear that much of the lodging house sector consists of good quality, self-
contained accommodation, operated by private house owners. However, the Inspector also
acknowledges that, despite lifting standards, there are still many places in St. Helier with
shared toilets and bathrooms, and where it would be desirable to improve living conditions
(i.e. in terms of space, amenities and configuration) without pricing occupants out of the
market. This is reflected to some extent by the early findings of the JASS 2009, which
suggest that while 90% of people are satisfied at some level with their accommodation, 15%
of people in non-qualified accommodation are very dissatisfied. Notwithstanding the on-
going difficulties, there remains a reasonable demand for the cheaper units of
accommodation.
Private Lodgings Private lodgings with 5 or less lodgers are not required to register under the Lodging Houses
(Registration) (Jersey) Law, 1962, or to meet minimum standards of space and amenities.
The census is the only way presently available to monitor how many people are living in
lodgings and the report on the 2001 Census states there were 1,539 private households living
in private lodgings in March of that year. There are no accurate figures on the current
position. It is generally held that the market should be able to address any outstanding
mismatch there may be between the type of accommodation required and what is available.
Staff Accommodation As with private lodgings, the only readily available information on private households living
in staff accommodation is provided by the census. According to the report on the 2001
Census, there were 1700 private households living in staff accommodation. Unfortunately the
current position is not known. Once again, it is generally held that this sector of the non-
qualified market tends to look after itself. Planning policies are not unduly restrictive and
opportunities are taken to create new accommodation as and when the demand arises.
7. COMPARING KNOWN HOUSING SUPPLY WITH REQUIREMENTS
FOR HOMES
7.1 Qualified Sector The great majority of households in Jersey are well housed, but there is evidence to show
there will be pressure to expand the supply of homes in various tenure groups throughout the
„qualified‟ sector over the next five years and beyond to meet identified requirements. Of
course, identifying requirements for new homes in the „qualified‟ sector and determining
whether sufficient provision is being made to meet those requirements is not and will never be
an exact science. Any such calculations must, of necessity, be based on numerous
assumptions. However, an attempt has been made to summarise the current position, on the
basis of the best information currently available.
Overall Position
The figures in Table 29 look to apply known and likely housing supply to estimated
requirements arising from the 2007 Housing Needs Survey using an assumed immigration
scenario of +150 households per year.
61
Table 29: Comparison between Overall Estimated Requirements for New Homes, 2008 – 2012 (based on Housing Needs Survey) and Supply Housing Requirements and Supply
11 Year Rule Reduction to 10 Year
Qualification Period
Assumed Migration
+150 h/hs per annum Assumed Migration
+150 h/hs per annum
Identified requirements for homes 2008-2012:
Category A*1
Category B
Total
1,335
1,265
2,600
1,395
1,320
2,715
Less Category A completions, 2008:
- Lifelong Homes (Open Market or Social Rent)
- Other Social Rented (purpose-built)
- First-time buyer (purpose-built)
- Proportion of Cat. B meeting f-t-b need
Less remaining Cat.B completions, 2008
Less lodging units sold into A-H Market for Cat. B
Less Social Rented Sold on Open Market for Cat. B
-
14 net loss
(68)
(23) (137)
(10)
(3)
-
14 net loss
(68)
(23)
(137)
(10)
(3) Outstanding requirement @ start 2009:
Category A
Category B
Total
1,258
1,115
2,373
1,318
1,170
2,488
Less known outstanding Category A commitments
(likely / capable of yielding before end 2012):
- Lifelong Homes (Open Market)
- Lifelong Homes (Social Rented)
- Other Social Rented (purpose built)
- First-time Buyer (purpose built) incl. Homebuy
- Est. contribution of Cat B homes under
construction, to meeting f-t-b requirements *3
(166)
(185)
(159)
(178)
(114)
(166)
(185)
(159)
(178)
(114)
Less - Remaining outstanding Category B
commitments under construction only; *2
- Known lodging Units to be sold for Cat. B
- Social Rented to be sold for Cat. B
- Owner occupied homes released by
downsizing to Open Market Lifelong Homes
(948)
(24)
(20)
(166)
(948)
(24)
(20)
(166)
Requirements Less Known Commitments:
Category A
Category B
Total
456
(43)
413
516
(12)
504
Less Supply Sources identified in Draft 2009 Island
Plan and not accounted for above:
Town of St. Helier *4
Windfall Sites Elsewhere *5
Rural Centres (Draft Policy H5)
2009 Island Plan Cat A Housing Sites
(55) Cat A
(481) Cat B
(25) Cat A
(125) Cat B
(25) Cat A
(200) Cat A
(55) Cat A
(481) Cat B
(25) Cat A
(125) Cat B
(25) Cat A
(200) Cat A
Projected Remaining Requirements to end 2012
Category A
Category B
Total
151 shortfall
(649) above target
498 above target
211 shortfall
(618) above target
407 above target
Notes: *1. Estimate of Category A requirements is based on the calculation made in Section 3.7, Table 14.
*2. This takes no account of:
Cat B consents not yet started at end of 2012 (i.e. a proportion of some 500 proposed homes)
Cat B consents which will be granted and could complete in the period.
*3. Based on investigations carried out by officers of the Population and Planning Departments of larger development proposals. *4. These are pro-rata figures for the 4 years to end 2012. 64 units are already accounted for as being under construction at
Hotel Rex (25 x first-time buyer and 39 x Cat. B)
*5 The estimated yield is for 600 units over the 4 years to 2012 @ 150 homes/annum. 450 units are already accounted for as
being under construction outside St. Helier, thus leaving 150 units not accounted for. The draft Island Plan affordable
housing policy (e.g. requiring 40% affordable housing) is unlikely to have much impact in the timeframe. However, it is
likely that a proportion will contribute to first-time buyer homes (say 25).
62
It can be seen from Table 29 that, in broad terms, the housing completions to-date combined
with known outstanding commitments and identified supply sources will more than match the
identified total requirements up to the end of 2012. In fact, they will exceed identified total
requirements by between 400 and 500 homes, depending on whether the current „11-Year
Rule‟ is maintained or the qualification period is further reduced to 10 years.
Perhaps more importantly, however, the figures point to mismatch between supply and
demand for Category A and Category B housing. They show a potential shortfall of between
150 and 210 Category A homes and an overprovision of between 620 and 650 Category B
homes. As alluded to earlier, there are arguments to suggest that the Category A requirements
identified using the 2007 Housing Needs Survey are overstated given the challenging
economic circumstances which now prevail. These circumstances combined with high
property prices, restrictions on mortgage lending and numerous other factors addressed
earlier, will, it is thought, serve to stifle many previously stated (and previously realistic)
aspirations for home ownership. If, as suggested in the draft Island Plan, this means it is
reasonable for half of the identified latent demand for first-time buyer homes to be rolled
forward into the second 5 years of the new Plan Period (2014-2018), identified Category A
requirements would be more than met by identified supply.
A similar exercise has been carried out to compare estimated housing supply with identified
requirements set out in the draft Island Plan for the period 2009 to 2013 (i.e. which only
includes half the previously identified latent demand for 1,000 first-time buyer homes). Table
30 shows that the estimated overall requirements are greatly exceeded by identified supply,
with the potential for over-provision of over 1,000 homes. The figures also show that, in such
circumstances, Category A demand is likely to be more than met from existing commitments
and identified supply sources (i.e. by almost 400 units).
It is important to emphasise that the conclusions reached from Tables 29 and 30 rely heavily
on the following housing yield assumptions:
new homes will arise in good numbers from town regeneration (750 homes);
there will be a continuation of a healthy supply of other windfalls arising from
private developments elsewhere in the built-up area (600-750 homes);
all the sites zoned for Lifelong Homes and First-time Buyer homes in P.75/2008 will
come forward for development (300 homes); and
all the sites proposed for rezoning for Category A housing purposes in the Draft
2009 Island Plan will be approved and developed (200 homes).
The timely provision of homes on the P.75/2008 sites may yet prove problematic, because, as
of February 2010, only one was underway and only two had planning permission. However,
three more had planning applications pending and one had received preliminary advice.
Indeed, only one site had not advanced significantly (see Appendix 11). Reliance on
proposed sites in the draft Island Plan is also a potential risk, because it pre-supposes that the
States will agree to rezone the land and because of the lengthy lead-in times experienced in
recent years for similar sites before permissions were granted and dwellings completed. It is
also acknowledged that the reliance placed by the States on private developers to provide
need housing on zoned sites does run the risk of potential problems relating to delivery times.
It means that the decision about when to develop sites is a matter for the land owner and the
developer and this can be affected by all manner of influences, including availability of
development funding, views on the market, availability of resources to undertake
development and constraints imposed by planning policies and obligation agreements.
Notwithstanding the potential problems outlined above, the evidence at this time generally
points to a fairly healthy housing land availability situation and suggests that the existing
housing stock, combined with known commitments and other identified supply sources will
63
be sufficient to meet estimated overall requirements for new homes over the next 5 years,
including requirements for both Category A and Category B homes. However, in view of the
numerous assumptions involved and the planned update of housing need figures, it will be
necessary to keep the situation under regular close scrutiny. If the identified requirements for
new homes for the period up to 2012/2013 should prove to be less than presently estimated, it
will simply mean that the identified supply of dwellings to be constructed in response, will
cover requirements for a slightly longer period. If, on the other hand, it becomes clear that
anticipated supply is insufficient to satisfy demand over the next 5 years, the outstanding
demand can be rolled forward into the next 5 year period of the new Island Plan, or
consideration can be given to modifying planning policies and other options for remedial
action to ensure an adequate supply of land is available at all times.
Table 30: Comparison between Estimated Requirements for New Homes, 2009 – 2013 (based on
Draft 2009 Island Plan) and Supply Housing Requirements and Supply
Assumed Migration
+150 h/hs
Identified requirements for homes 2009-2013
(based primarily on population and household modelling):
2,000
(est. Cat A = 835)
Less known outstanding Category A commitments (likely / capable of
yielding before end 2013):
- Lifelong Homes (Open Market)
- Lifelong Homes (Social Rented)
- Other Social Rented (purpose built)
- First-time Buyer (purpose built) (including Homebuy)
- Est. likely contribution of Cat B homes currently under
construction, to meeting First-time Buyer requirements *2
(166)
(185)
(159)
(178)
(114)
(802)
Less - Remaining outstanding Category B commitments under
construction only; *1
- Known lodging Units to be sold into A-H Market for Cat. B
- Social Rented to be sold on Open Market for Cat. B
- Owner occupied homes released by downsizing to Open Market
Lifelong Homes
(948)
(24)
(20)
(166)
(1,158)
Requirements Less Known Commitments:
40
(est. Cat A = 33)
Less Supply sources identified in Draft 2009 Island Plan and not accounted
for above:
Town of St. Helier *3
Windfall Sites Elsewhere *4
Rural Centres (Policy H5 – Housing in Rural Areas)
2009 Island Plan Cat A Housing Sites
(75) Cat A
(611) Cat B
(50) Cat A
(250) Cat B
(25) Cat A
(200) Cat A
(1,211)
Projected Remaining Requirements to 2013
Provision above target
1,171
(est. Cat A = 383 above target)
Notes: *1. This takes no account of:
Cat B consents not commenced at start 2009 but which will complete by end of 2013;
Cat B consents which will be granted and could complete in the period.
*2. Based on investigations carried out by officers of the Population and Planning Departments of larger development proposals. *3. The draft Island Plan estimated a potential yield of 100 Category A homes and 650 Category B homes. 64 homes are
already accounted for as being under construction at Hotel Rex (25 x first-time buyer and 39 x Cat. B)
*4 The estimated yield is for 750 units over the 5 years to 2013 @ 150 homes/annum. 450 units are already accounted for as being under construction outside St. Helier, thus leaving 300 units not accounted for. The draft Island Plan affordable
housing policy (e.g. requiring 40% affordable housing) is unlikely to have much impact in the timeframe. However, it is
likely that a proportion will contribute to first-time buyer homes (say 50).
64
Size and Type of Homes Table 31 looks to compare estimated requirements for new houses and flats of different sizes
with known supply commitments. The commitments do not allow for existing Category B
consents which had not commenced by the start of 2009, or which will be granted consent in
the next 1 or 2 years, nor do they take into account much of the supply source identified in the
draft Island Plan, including a significant amount of expected / potential supply from town
regeneration, windfall developments elsewhere and proposed Category A housing sites.
Notwithstanding these limitations, the table is useful in providing indications of where
surpluses and shortfalls might occur.
Table 31: Comparison of Estimated Requirements and Supply Commitments in the Qualified
Sector, by Size and Type of Units, 2008 – 2012 Flats Houses Totals 1
bed
2
bed
3
bed
4
bed
Don’t
know
1
bed
2
bed
3
bed
4
bed
5
bed
Don’t
know
Flats Houses Total
TOTAL
REQUIREMENTS
11 Year Rule +
In-migration
+150h/h per year
(117) (694) (99) (11) - (8) (864) (739) (68) - - (921) (1679) (2600)
% 4.5 26.7 3.8 0.4 0.3 33.3 28.4 2.6 35.4 64.6 100.0
SUPPLY Completions 2008:
F-T-B - - - - - - - 63 5 - - - 68 68
Social Rented (1) (40) (3) - - - - 31 - (1) - (44) 30 (14)
Cat. B 23 16 (4) 1 - 7 18 69 27 3 - 36 124 160
Lodging Houses
Sold for Cat. B
6 4 - - - - - - - - - 10 - 10
Sub-total 28 (20) (7) 1 - 7 18 163 32 2 - 2 222 224
Commitments @
start 2009:
Lifelong Homes - 214 - - - - 137 - - - - 214 137 351
F-T-B
(inc. Homebuy)
- - - - - - - 160 18 - - - 178 178
Other Social Rented 77 31 - - - (19) 10 47 12 1 - 108 51 159
Cat B. u/c 356 375 28 - 1 24 48 117 99 13 1 760 302 1062
Lodging Houses to
be sold for Cat. B
6 15 1 - - - - 2 - - - 22 2 24
Sub-total 439 635 29 - 1 5 195 326 129 14 1 1104 670 1774
TOTAL KNOWN
COMPLETIONS &
COMMITMENTS
467 615 22 1 1 12 213 489 161 16 1 1106 892 1998
% 23.4 30.8 1.1 <0.1 <0.1 0.6 10.7 24.5 8.0 0.8 <0.1 55.4 44.6 100.0
The figures show that the proportion of flats completed and committed (55%) is well above
that identified as being required based on the latest Housing Needs Study (35%). Conversely,
the proportion of houses completed and committed (45%) is significantly below identified
requirements (65%). Leaving aside additional potential housing yields identified in the draft
2009 Island Plan for the period up to the end of 2012, from town regeneration, private
windfall developments and proposed Category A housing sites, Table 31 also serves to
illustrate that:
The proportion of 1-bedroom flats among outstanding commitments (23%) is far in
excess of the identified required proportions (5%).
Commitments for 1-bedroom flats greatly exceed identified overall requirements;
Identified requirements for 2-bedroom flats are generally matched both
proportionately and numerically by existing commitments;
65
there is an outstanding potential requirement for around 90 larger 3- and 4-bedroom
family flats which will need to be met by other identified supply sources;
the proportion of commitments for 3-bedroom family houses (25%) is in line with
identified overall requirements (28%);
there is a very large mismatch between the proportion of commitments for 2-bedroom
houses (11%) and identified overall requirements (33%).
there are major shortfalls in the provision of 2- and 3-bedroom houses of around 650
homes and 250 homes respectfully, which will need to be met by other supply
sources.
This situation is largely mirrored when applied to the owner-occupied sector, as shown in
Table 32.
Table 32: Comparison of Estimated Requirements and Supply Commitments for Owner-Occupied
Homes, by Size and Type of Units, 2008 – 2012 Flats Houses Totals 1
bed
2
bed
3
bed
4
bed
Don’t
know
1
bed
2
bed
3
bed
4
bed
5
bed
Don’t
know
Flats Houses Total
TOTAL
REQUIREMENTS
11 Year Rule +
In-migration
+150h/h per year
(105) (688) (99) (11) - - (844) (718) (65) - - (903) (1627) (2530)
% 4.2 27.2 3.9 0.4 - - 33.3 28.4 2.6 35.7 64.3 100.0
SUPPLY Completions 2008:
F-T-B - - - - - - - 63 5 - - - 68 68
Cat. B 23 16 (4) 1 - 7 18 69 27 3 - 36 124 160
Lodging Houses
Sold for Cat. B
6 4 - - - - - - - - - 10 - 10
Sub-total 29 20 (4) 1 - 7 18 132 32 3 - 46 192 238
Commitments @
start 2009:
Lifelong Homes
(Open Market)
- 98 - - - - 68 - - - - 98 68 166
F-T-B
(inc. Homebuy)
- - - - - - - 160 18 - - - 178 178
Cat B. u/c 356 375 28 - 1 24 48 117 99 13 1 760 302 1062
Lodging Houses to
be sold for Cat. B
6 15 1 - - - - 2 - - - 22 2 24
Social Rented Units
to be sold on open
market
4 - - - - - 7 5 2 2 - 4 16 20
Social Rented Units
to be sold to F-T-
Bs*
2 7 2 - - - 13 69 2 - - 11 84 95
Sub-total 368 495 31 - 1 24 136 353 121 15 1 895 650 1545
TOTAL KNOWN
COMPLETIONS &
COMMITMENTS
397 515 27 1 1 31 154 485 153 18 1 941 842 1783
% 22.3 28.9 1.5 <0.1 <0.1 1.7 8.6 27.2 8.6 1.0 <0.1 52.8 47.2 100.0
* Proportional estimate based on sites likely to come forward
Clearly, the other supply sources identified in the draft Island Plan could, with an appropriate
mix of development, help to redress the balance in provision of new homes, so that it more
nearly meets identified requirements. However, it should also be born in mind that the
provision of smaller units can help to enable the rising number of older property owners to
downsize to accommodation more suited to their needs. This could help considerably in
66
providing opportunities to enhance the supply of larger family homes into the market for sale
to families who can occupy them more appropriately, and so reduce the need for new build.
In addressing the shortfall of 2- and 3-bedroom houses, it will also be necessary to have
regard to the apparent mismatch between the expectations of first-time buyers for a
conventional house and garden and what it might be reasonable to expect / realise as a first
home, having regard to:
restrictions on mortgage lending;
environmental constraints relating to the capacity of the Island to accept new
development;
the arguments for more sustainable forms and patterns of development;
public opposition to green field development; and
States‟ policies which are geared towards urban regeneration and away from the
unnecessary development of green fields.
Table 33 looks to compare the relatively low estimated requirements for new social rented
houses and flats of different sizes with known supply commitments. It shows that, as with the
owner occupied sector, the proportion and number of commitments for flats is beyond
identified requirements. Conversely, the proportion of houses completed and committed is
well below that of identified requirements. However, there is only a very slight shortfall in
the provision of houses overall, with the most significant shortfall (40 homes) being for 3-
bedroom family houses.
Table 33: Comparison of Estimated Requirements and Supply Commitments for Social Rented
Homes, by Size and Type of Units, 2008 – 2012 FLATS HOUSES TOTAL
1
bed
2
bed
3
bed
1
bed
2
bed
3
bed
4
bed
5
bed
Flats Houses Total
TOTAL
REQUIREMENTS
11 Year Rule +
In-migration
+150h/h per year
(12) (6) - (8) (20) (21) (3) - (18) (52) (70)
% 17.1 8.6 - 11.4 28.6 30.0 4.3 - 25.7 74.3 100.0
SUPPLY Completions 2008:
Social Rented (1) (40) (3) - - 31 - (1) (44) 30 (14)
Sub-total (1) (40) (3) - - 31 - (1) (44) 30 (14)
Commitments @
start 2009:
Lifelong Homes
(social rented)
- 116 - - 69 - - - 116 69 185
Other Social Rented 77 31 - (19) 10 47 12 1 108 51 159
Social Rented to be
sold on Open
Market
(4) - - - (7) (5) (2) (2) (4) (16) (20)
Social Rented to be
sold to F-T-Bs*
(2) (7) (2) - (13) (69) (2) - (11) (84) (95)
Sub-total 71 140 (2) (19) 59 (27) 8 (1) 209 20 229
TOTAL KNOWN
COMPLETIONS &
COMMITMENTS
70 100 (5) (19) 59 4 8 (2) 165 50 215
% 32.6 46.5 (2.2) (8.8) 27.4 (1.9) 3.7 (0.9) 76.7 23.3 100.0
* Proportional estimate based on sites likely to come forward
67
It is important to bear in mind that land availability in the social rented housing situation is
not likely to be as favourable as it is portrayed in Table 33. Estimated requirements (based on
aspirations in 2007) do not take into account the unsuitability of many existing smaller units
in meeting the requirements of older persons, who need accessible and life time compliant
homes. They also take no account of arguments put forward in the recent Whitehead report
for making the social rented sector larger with much wider allocations criteria (i.e. reflecting
the prevailing economic circumstances and the considerable unmet housing needs among
lower income households who are and will continue to face difficulties in finding decent,
affordable / low cost homes).
Affordable Homes If one assumes that the requirement for affordable homes for the 5-year period 2009-2013
equates approximately to the interim figure set out in the Kelvin MacDonald report (i.e. 900
homes), then it would seem that this could be matched by existing commitments and
development opportunities set out in the draft Island Plan, as follows:
Existing Commitments (@start 2009):
Purpose Built First-time Buyer (Incl. Homebuy) 178 homes
Est. contribution of Category B developments to
First-time Buyer requirements 114 homes
Lifelong Homes (Social Rented) 185 homes
Other Purpose-built Social Rented Homes 159 homes
Social Rented Homes sold on Open Market (20)homes
616
Potential Category A Housing Proposals in Draft Island Plan
Proposed Category A Housing Sites (Draft Policy H1) 200 homes
Opportunities for Housing in Rural Centres 25 homes
225
Additional Potential Supply Sources in Draft Island Plan
A Proportion of Town Regeneration Schemes
(Net of existing commitments) 75 homes
A Proportion of Windfall Developments elsewhere
(net of existing commitments) 50 homes
125
TOTAL 966
It should be noted that meeting estimated requirements for affordable homes, as shown, relies
to a significant degree on further rezoning of land. It is recognised that the Strategic Plan
2009-14 tasks the new Island Plan to deliver sufficient land and development opportunities to
meet housing demand without further rezoning of green field land. Furthermore, it requires
the identified supply of new first-time buyer homes (whether purpose-built or from windfalls)
to come forward at the right price with sufficiently large subsidies to enable households to
buy. Notwithstanding this, a small amount of rezoning of „brown field‟ land (i.e. previously
developed land) is considered necessary to contribute towards overall need for homes and
particularly affordable homes in the shorter term (i.e. the first five years of the Plan).
In order to address future requirements for affordable homes, the draft Island Plan proposes
the introduction of a new policy and mechanism for delivering such accommodation. Draft
Policy H3 requires a proportion of private residential development above a certain threshold
to be affordable accommodation. It is currently envisaged that the new policy will apply to
developments of 2 or more homes. Developers of sites with a capacity of six or more housing
units will be required to provide affordable housing on the site or a suitable alternative site or,
where appropriate, to provide a commuted sum to enable the purchase of housing for
68
affordable housing purposes. For sites with a capacity of 2-5 homes, it is proposed that the
affordable housing contribution sought will be in the form of a commuted sum.
If the States approve the new policy, it will take time to establish and bear fruit and it would
be unlikely to have any significant impact on housing yields in the five year period to 2013.
Of course, the affordability situation could be improved and prices reduced, if planning
controls on the building of new homes are relaxed to ease restrictions on supply and enable a
surplus of homes to be provided. Indeed, in its recent review of social housing, the
Cambridge Centre for Housing and Planning Research concluded that this would be “the only
practical way to increase owner occupation in Jersey”. For reasons set out earlier, there
seems little likelihood that the planning system and planning policies will move in this
direction.
Older Persons’ Housing It would seem that the estimated requirements for 400 older people‟s homes between 2008
and 2012, as identified in the latest „Housing Needs Survey‟, could be addressed by
completions and outstanding commitments, which are variously described in Section 6.3 and
summarised below:
Completions during 2008 (former Aquila Youth Centre) 26 homes
Sales of new units in 2008 and 2009 (L‟Hermitage Site) 46 homes
Outstanding Commitments at start 2009
(including sites recently zoned for Lifelong Homes) 350 homes
422 homes
Despite the encouraging figures, it is important not to be complacent. The figures rely
heavily on the development of the sites zoned specifically for the provision of Lifelong
Homes (P.75/2008) in July 2008. To-date progress with these sites has been relatively slow
and it is only recently that we have seen any significant movement. As of February 2010,
three sites had planning permission, three had planning applications pending and preliminary
advice had been offered on another site. This remains a potential concern when one considers
that there is a normal lead in time of two to three years before homes can be completed on
even the most straightforward of specified sites. Therefore, it seems likely that these homes
will not be completed in significant numbers before the beginning of 2013 (N.B. The current
status of the sites is outlined in Appendix 11).
Furthermore, as the Island‟s population ages, it will result in a significant increase in demand
for such accommodation from 2013 onwards, which is due to peak in 2031. The extent of this
future demand will be difficult to judge, but the JASS 2009 reveals that one in five (18%) of
those aged 65 and over had a preference for downsizing (i.e. to a „lifelong‟ home), whilst
three-fifths (58%) were looking to stay in their own home, with suitable modifications.
Any continuing delays in bringing forward sites zoned for Lifelong Homes will present some
serious difficulties for the current States Housing refurbishment programme. The Housing
Department alone has a relatively stable demand on its means tested waiting and transfer lists
for 312 older person‟s homes at this time. The sites zoned in P.75.2008 were identified as the
means of meeting that need, whilst allowing existing tenants to shuffle through the stock into
accommodation more suited to their medical and social needs. This in turn allowed the
Housing Department to target certain sites for wholesale decanting to enable major
refurbishment or regeneration projects to be undertaken. The Department has made it clear
that without significant numbers of new (particularly older person‟s) homes coming forward,
many of its planned regeneration projects cannot be carried out, including schemes for
Convent and Caesarea Court, Hampshire Gardens, Phases 3, 4 and 5 of Le Squez, De
Quetteville Court and La Collette. As a consequence, if the sites in question continue to be
69
slow to materialise, it may be necessary for the States to give serious consideration to
alternative options for producing the homes which the Island needs, either as a separate
exercise, or as part of the Island Plan review process.
In any event, there would be merit in planning now for the looming increase in demand for
older persons homes between 2013 and 2031, including the securing of sites where necessary.
As part of this planning, it may be necessary to introduce a range of incentives and
mechanisms to encourage people to downsize and release valuable larger family homes. It is
envisaged that the redevelopment of „brownfield‟ sites which become vacant in the town of
St. Helier, will provide valuable potential opportunities for the development of smaller homes
to meet the future needs of older households.
7.2 Unqualified Sector The limitation of available data on the supply of new homes across the whole „unqualified
sector‟, makes it impossible to carry out a numerical exercise similar to those above for the
„qualified sector‟. However, as alluded to earlier, the evidence suggests that estimated
requirements for new homes in the „unqualified sector‟ over the five years to the end of 2012
will be modest, ranging from only 45 homes (if the qualifying period is reduced to 10 years)
to 75 homes (if the current „11-Year Rule‟ is maintained). The anecdotal evidence provided
by estate agents (see Section 4.4) and the findings in the Lodging House Inspector‟s report
also suggest that requirements in the non-qualified sector have been and will continue to be
largely met by the market in the foreseeable future. There appears to be a good level of
supply, aided by reductions in the housing qualification period and the uncertain economic
climate. Despite this, the Population Office would support more new build supply into the
unqualified market, which could then be combined with a tougher regulatory regime to raise
standards at the bottom end of the market.
From a land use planning perspective, it is considered that the policies in the Island Plan will
continue to allow the provision of such accommodation in response to existing demand and
changes in that demand. There seems no reason, therefore, to suspect that the market cannot
continue to be successful in meeting estimated requirements. Furthermore, the recently
approved mechanisms for monitoring and regulating migration should help to ensure that the
States‟ policy of „controlled economic growth‟ is achieved, whilst avoiding the pressures on
non-qualified accommodation which have historically resulted from short-term economic
change (i.e. due to uncontrolled immigration).
70
Appendix 1:
SCHEDULE OF SOCIAL RENTED HOUSING COMPLETIONS, SINCE
APPROVAL OF JERSEY ISLAND PLAN 2002 Ref. Site Units by Type
1 bed 2 bed 3 bed 4 bed 5 bed Total
Completions 2002 16774/A/D
Florence Boot Cottages (Phases
III & IV), St. Clement
18
(-10)
3 21
(-10)
19337/A
PB/2001/0432
5, St. Clement‟s Road,
St. Helier
9 1 10
7215/N
PB/1998/1041
Le Champ des Fleurs (Le Jardin
Fleuri ?), (former La Motte Ford
site), La Rue a Don, Grouville
4 12 16
424/N
PB/1999/2574
Oak Tree Gardens (Elysee Estate
Phase III), Trinity Hill, St. Helier
7 22 5 34
2916/P
PB/2000/0892
Former Berkshire Hotel Site, 33-
35, La Motte Street, St. Helier
113 113
3855/O/T
PB/1998/2609
Former Postal Headquarters site,
Mont Millais, St. Helier
4 14 27 45
6107/B
B/2000/1777
Field 413 (Parish Elderly
Persons), La Longue Rue, St.
Martin
20 1 21
11550/E/1/1
PB/1998/2606
Le Geyt Flats Estate (Refurb. &
Redevelopment) (Phases V &
V1), St. Saviour.
18 12 30
7671/F/G
PB/1999/1613
Field 818 (Parish Elderly
Persons), Trinity
10 10
Sub-total (net) 163 60 64 3 290
COMPLETIONS 2003 424
PB/2001/0477
Elysee Estate, Trinity Hill, St.
Helier
1 1
2543
B/2002/0209
Parkside (former Town Park
Hotel site), Pierson Road, St.
Helier
1 6 8 2 2 19
2404/I
B/2000/1628
Sandybrook Hospital, St. Peter 8 2 10
Sub-total (net) 9 8 8 3 2 30
COMPLETIONS 2004 20067
PB/2000/1345
Victoria Place, Albert Pier, The
Waterfront (Phase 1), St. Helier
23 51 4 1 79
NONE
P/2003/0627
Le Squez Estate (Phase 1A),
St. Clement
(8) (12) (20)
Sub-total (net) 23 43 (8) 1 59
COMPLETIONS 2005 11150/E
PB/1999/0188
John Wesley Apartments (11,13
& 13A, Lempriere Street and 1-3,
Canon Street), St. Helier
17 23 1 41
3764/Y
PB/2000/2134
Clement Court, Ann Street,
(former Cleveland Garage / St.
Helier Garages ), (Phase 1), St.
Helier
Jersey Homes Trust
21 5 26
71
4628
B/2004/0302
Le Marais, Low Rise (Phase 1),
St. Clement
(-21) (-15) (-36)
2884
B/2003/2646
Le Squez Estate (Phase 1A), St.
Clement
1 1
4374
B/2003/1156
Victoria Cottage Homes (K
Block), St. Saviour‟s Hill, St.
Saviour
3
(6)
3
(6)
4374
B/2004/1257
61 and 62, Victoria Cottage
Homes, St. Saviour‟s Hill, St.
Saviour
1
(-2)
1
(-2)
4374
B/2004/1256
48 and 49, Victoria Cottage
Homes, St. Saviour‟s Hill, St.
Saviour
1
(-2)
1
(-2)
4374
B/2005/0541
33, Victoria Cottage Homes, St.
Saviour‟s Hill, St. Saviour
1
(-2)
1
(-2)
Sub-total (net) 11 9 6 26
COMPLETIONS 2006 1537
B/2003/0228
Phillips House, Victoria Street,
St. Helier
Les Vaux Housing Trust
15 3 18
179/G
B/2002/1833
La Folie Estate,
Parkinson Drive,
St. Lawrence
3 14 17
4628
B/2004/0302
Le Marais Low Rise (Phase 1),
St. Clement
14 14
8871
B/2004/0259
Fields 786 and 787 (Westview
Farm), La Rue des Cosnets,
St. Ouen (H2 site)
Community Homes
6 6
11097
P/2006/2648
Le Coin, Ann Street / Charles
Street, St. Helier
Unoccupied since 2006 –
approved as temp. car park
(16) (16)
15836
B/2004/0090
Le Benefice, (extension to former
Hodge Nurseries),
Fields 89, 89A, 90, 92A & 93,
St. Clement (H2 site)
CTJ Housing Trust
64 9 73
100/JA
B/2002/1292
Le Coie Hotel Site, Janvrin Road,
St. Helier
Jersey Homes Trust
44 51 1 96
1380
B/2006/0605
33-34, Grassett Park,
St. Saviour
(2)
1 1
(2)
Sub-total (net) 82 52 62 9 2 207
COMPLETIONS 2007 1365
B/2003/0288
B/2004/0655
Le Grand Clos
Field 1218, Mont a l‟Abbe, St.
Helier (H2 site)
Jersey Homes Trust
14
(ret)
6
28
6
14
flats
40
houses
2884
P/2003/2646
Le Squez Estate (Phase 1B),
Les Cloches,
St. Clement
15 3
5
2
18
flats
7
houses
2884
B/2005/0346
Le Squez Estate
(Day Centre and Flats),
St. Clement
2 2
flats
72
4628
P/2006/0718
Le Marais Estate Low Rise
(Phase 2), St. Clement
(-28) (-20) (-48)
flats
P/2005/1998
tenure swap
with Bagot
Manor site
Clos Le Gallais,
Field 1370, La Rue de Mont
Sejour, St. Helier (H2 site)
Jersey Homes Trust
2 11 13
houses
16320
B/2004/1283
U/C
Clos Des Charmes,
Fields 181, 182 & 183, La Route
de la Pointe, St. Peter (H2 site)
CTJ Housing Trust
12
3
16
12
flats
19
houses
Sub total (net) 15 (-6) 60 8 77
COMPLETIONS 2008 3289/7514
Field 40, La Rue du Maupertuis,
St. Clement (H2 site)
Les Vaux Housing Trust
10 10
houses
1380
B/2008/0839
33-34, Grasett Park, St. Saviour 2
(-1) 2
(-1)
houses
P/2006/0048
Field 690A, Maufant, St. Martin
(H2 site)
Jersey Homes Trust
19 19
houses
3764/Y
PB/2000/2134
Clement Court, Ann Street
(former Cleveland Garage / St.
Helier Garages), (Phase 2), St.
Helier.
6 6
flats
3636
P/2005/1424
B/2006/0152
Aquila Youth Centre,
Great Union Road, St. Helier
(over 65‟s)
Les Vaux Housing Trust
26
ret
26
ret
flats
3511
P/2008/2409
Ann Court,
Ann Place, St. Helier
(Properties empty late 2008)
(-33) (-34) (-3) (-70)
flats
33, 35, 37 & 39, Ann Street and
1 & 2, Clifton Place, St. Helier
(Properties empty late 2008)
(-4)
(-2)
(-4)
flats
(-2)
houses
Sub total (net) (-1) (-40) 28 (-1) (-14)
TOTAL COMPLETIONS 302 126 220 23 4 675
73
Appendix 2:
SCHEDULE OF PURPOSE-BUILT FIRST TIME BUYER HOUSING
COMPLETIONS, SINCE APPROVAL OF JERSEY ISLAND PLAN 2002 Ref. Site Units by Type
1
bed
2
bed
3
bed
4
bed
5
bed
Total
Completions 2002 6262/S
B/2000/!907
L‟Abri, (Former Hodge
Nurseries), La Grande Route de
la Cote, St. Clement
34 34
houses
7215
Le Champ des Fleurs, (former
La Motte Ford site), La Rue a
Don, Grouville
1 1
house
4169/K
B/2000/5010
Field 1078, Sion, La Rue des
Houguettes, St. John
1 39 40
houses
16840/C
PB/2000/1974
Field 615, La Rue de Patier, St.
Saviour
17 17
houses
Sub-total 1 91 92
COMPLETIONS 2003 1377/X
P/1998/2042
Woodville Hotel, St. Saviour‟s
Road, St. Helier
4 55 59
flats
20067
PB/2000/1345
Albert Place, Albert Pier, The
Waterfront (Phase 1), St. Helier
29 37 4 70
flats
18961
PB/2002/0338
Fields 378 & 379 & Field
Cottage, La Rue a la Dame, Five
Oaks, St. Saviour
22 10 32
houses
Sub-total (net) 33 92 26 10 161
COMPLETIONS 2004 14060
PB/2002/0709
Bagot Manor Farm,
Bagot Manor Road,
St. Saviour
21 21
houses
18961
PB/2002/1321
Fields 378 and 379 and Field
Cottage, La Rue a la Dame,
St. Saviour
20 11 31
houses
Sub-total (net) - - 41 11 52
COMPLETIONS 2005 NONE
B/2003/1384
Le Squez (Phase 1A), „La
Gambrette‟, St. Clement
14 4 18
houses
sold
2007
8871
B/2004/0259
Fields 786 and 787 (Westview
Farm), La Rue des Cosnets,
St. Ouen (H2 site)
22 22
houses
Sub-total (net) 36 4 40
COMPLETIONS 2006 4628
B/2004/0302
Le Marais Low Rise (phase 1),
„La Selliere‟,
St. Clement
23 23
houses
sold
2007
74
8871
B/2004/0259
Fields 786 and 787 (Westview
Farm), La Rue des Cosnets,
St. Ouen (H2 site)
14 14
house
5025
B/2004/0615
Field 203 (Le Clos Corvez), part
204 & 252, Jambart Lane, St.
Clement
(H2 site)
30 13 43
houses
Sub-total (net) 67 13 80
COMPLETIONS 2007 1365
B/2003/0228
U/C
Le Clos Vaze,
Field 1218, Mont a l‟Abbe, St.
Helier (H2 site)
26 43 69
houses
2884
P/2003/2646
Les Cloches
Le Squez (Phase 1B), St.
Clement
5 31 4 40
houses
sold
2007
4677
5025
B/2004/0615
Le Clos Corvez,
Field 203, part 204 & 252,
Jambart Lane, St. Clement
(H2 site)
33 33
houses
16320
B/2004/1283
Clos Des Charmes,
Fields 181, 182 & 183, La Route
de la Pointe, St. Peter (H2 site)
9
2
30 30
houses
11
flats
14060
PB/2002/0709
Field 812A, Bagot Manor Farm,
St. Saviour
1 1
house
Sub-total (net) 9 33 138 4 184
COMPLETIONS 2008 14060
B/2005/0506
Tenure swap
with F. 1370, St.
Helier
Field 812A, Bagot Manor Farm,
St. Saviour
15 15
houses
3289
B/2006/1217
Field 40, La Rue de Maupertuis,
St. Clement (H2 site)
13 13
houses
None
P/2006/2489
La Providence,
Fields 848, 851, 853 & 854, Bel
Royal, St. Lawrence (H2 site)
11 5 16
houses
None
P/2006/0048
Field 690A, Maufant, St. Martin
(H2 site)
24 24
houses
Sub-total 63 5 68
TOTAL COMPLETIONS 42 126 462 47 - 677
75
Appendix 3: SCHEDULE OF SOCIAL RENTED HOUSING PROPERTY SALES ON THE OPEN
MARKET, BY TYPE, 2004-2008 Ref. Site Units by Type
1
bed
2
bed
3
bed
4
bed
5
bed
Total
COMPLETIONS 2004 101, Don Road,
St. Helier
1 1 2
flats
Sub-total (net) - - 1 1 2
COMPLETIONS 2005 Amy‟s House, La Route de St.
Catherine Fief de la Reine,
St. Martin
1 1
house
Winchester House,
Winchester Street,
St. Helier
3 3
flats
Old Eastern Telephone
Exchange & Cottage, La Rue de
la Hambie Sous La Hougue,
St. Saviour
1 1
house
Old Station House, Corbiere,
St. Brelade
1 1
house
Caledonia Close,
St. Helier
8 8
flats
L‟Hopital, La Route de St.
Catherine De Rozel,
St. Martin
1 1
house
Sub-total (net) 11 2 1 1 15
COMPLETIONS 2006 La Falaise, La Rue du Flicquet,
St. Martin
1 1
house
Sub-total (net) 1 1
COMPLETIONS 2007 17, Devonshire Place,
St. Helier
1 1
house
19, Devonshire Place,
St. Helier
1 1
house
4, Boulevard Avenue,
La Route de St. Aubin,
St. Helier
1 1
house
39, Midvale Road,
St. Helier
1 1
house
Sub-total (net) 1 1 2 4
COMPLETIONS 2008 Medina, Seale Street,
St. Helier
3 3
flats
Sub-total 3 3
TOTAL SALES 14 4 3 2 2 25
Note: The States „Social Housing Property Plan, 2007-2016‟ provides for the sale of 27 houses on the open
market.
76
Appendix 4: SCHEDULE OF SOCIAL RENTED HOUSING PROPERTY SALES TO SOCIAL
RENTED TENANTS (as first-time buyers), BY TYPE, 2007 and 2008. Ref. Site Units by Type
1
bed
2
bed
3
bed
4
bed
5
bed
Total
2007 La Cambrette,
(Le Squez Phase 1A),
St. Clement
14 4 18
houses
Le Selliere,
(Le Marais Low Rise Phase 1),
St. Clement
23 23
houses
Les Cloches,
(Le Squez Phase 1B),
St. Clement
5 31 4 40
houses
Sub-total 28 45 8 81
2008 Clos Des Sables,
St. Brelade
2 2
houses
Grasett Park,
St. Saviour
4 1 5
houses
Les Houmets,
Grouville
1 1
house
Le Bel Collas, Gorey Village,
Grouville
1 1
house
Sub-total 8 1 9
TOTAL SALES 28 53 9 90 Note: The States „Social Housing Property Plan, 2007-2016‟ provides for the sale of some 773 houses and flats on
a shared equity basis.
Appendix 5:
SCHEDULE OF KNOWN COMPLETIONS DUE FOR SOCIAL RENTED
HOUSING, BY TYPE, 2009 TO END 2012
Ref. Site Units by Type
1 bed 2 bed 3
bed
4
bed
5
bed
Total
COMPLETIONS DUE 2009 2884
P/2007/2849
Permit
Le Squez Estate (bungalows),
Le Squez, St. Clement
(-19) (-19) bungalows
4628
P/2006/0718
U/C
Le Marais Estate (Low Rise),
Phase 2, St. Clement
18
2 dis
1 dis
24
4
19
flats
28
houses
4374
P/2006/1345
Permit
Victoria Cottage Homes, St.
Saviour‟s Hill, St. Saviour
(-2)
1 1
house
(-2)
flats
Sub-total (net) (-3) 2 24 4 27
COMPLETIONS DUE 2010 1365
P/2007/1213
Permit
Units 17 & 18, Le Grand Clos,
St. Helier
(-2)
1 (-2)
1
houses
Sub-total (net) (-2) 1 (-1)
COMPLETIONS DUE 2011
77
4867
P/2008/1677
B/2009/0930
Permit
Clos du Paradis,
La Pouquelaye, St. Helier
29
(-24)
1 30
(-24)
houses
13439
P/2001/2087
B/2003/0592
B/2007/12
Permit+12U/C
Salisbury Crescent, La Rue Le
Masurier, St. Helier
24
12u/c
2
7
24
flats
9
houses
Definite 1-3, Journeaux Street, St.
Helier
10 10
flats
Sub-total (net) 34 7 8 49
COMPLETIONS DUE 2012 2884
P/2009/0780
Le Squez Estate (Phase 2),
Le Squez, St. Clement
27
9
30
18 27
houses
57
flats
P.75/2008
7172
P/2009/2388
Planning App.
Field 274, La Lourderie,
St. Clement
(LIFELONG HOMES)
15
est.
15 bungalows
P.75/2008
8053
Prelim. Advice
Fields 516, 516A, 517 and 518,
St. Saviour
(LIFELONG HOMES)
80
est.
80
flats
P.75/2008
P/2009/2419
Planning App.
Lesquende, Les Quennevais,
St. Brelade
(LIFELONG HOMES)
36
est.
36
flats
P.75/2008
App. not yet
submitted
Field 578, Trinity
(LIFELONG HOMES)
6
est.
6 bungalows
P.75/2008
7671
P/2008/2471
B/2009/0304
B/2009/0331
B/2009/0337
Permit
Fields 818 and part Field 873,
Trinity
(LIFELONG HOMES)
14
14 bungalows
P.75/2008
P/2010/0126
Planning App.
Field 148, Rue des Maltieres,
Grouville
(LIFELONG HOMES)
20
est.
20 bungalows
P.75/2008
8053
P/2009/1600
Permit
Fields 561 and 562, St. Mary
(LIFELONG HOMES)
14
14 bungalows
Sub-total (Net) 27 224 18 269
TOTAL COMPLETIONS DUE (net)
2009 to end 2012
58 226 47 12 1 344
Other Known Completions Due 2013 and 2014 Due 2013 Hampshire Gardens - Convert
bedsits, Aquila Road,
St. Helier
(-39)
22
(-39)
22
flats
2884
P/2007/2848
Permit
Le Squez (flats),
Le Squez, St. Clement
(-16) (-54) (-30) (-100)
flats
2884
P/2007/2849
Permit
Le Squez Estate (houses),
Le Squez, St. Clement
(-25) (-18) (-4) (-47)
houses
Sub-total (Net) (-43) (-79) (-48) (-4) (-164)
78
Appendix 6: SCHEDULE OF KNOWN COMPLETIONS DUE FOR FIRST TIME BUYER
HOUSING, BY TYPE, 2009 TO END 2012
Ref. Site Units by Type
1
bed
2
bed
3
bed
4
bed
5
bed
Total
COMPLETIONS DUE BY END 2009 TO END 2012 None
P/2006/2489
U/C
La Providence,
Fields 848, 851, 853 & 854, Bel
Royal, St. Lawrence (H2 site)
17 18 35
houses
None
P/2006/2489
U/C
La Providence,
Fields 848, 851, 853 & 854, Bel
Royal, St. Lawrence (H2 site)
HOMEBUY
46 46
houses
P/2007/0223
B/2007/0654
B/2009/0397
Permit
Fields 190, 191 & 192, La Rue
de la Sergente, St. Brelade
(H2 site)
14 14
houses
P/2007/0223
B/2007/0654
B/2009/0397
Permit
Fields 190, 191 & 192, La Rue
de la Sergente, St. Brelade
(H2 site)
HOMEBUY
12 12
houses
Prelim. Advice
App. due
Field 873, Bel Royal, St.
Lawrence (H2 site)
7 7
houses
Prelim. Advice
App. due
Field 873, Bel Royal, St.
Lawrence (H2 site)
HOMEBUY
5 5
houses
2206 / 1365
B/2009/0038
Permit
Field 1218,
Mont-a-l‟Abbe, St. Helier
HOMEBUY on 6 units
14 14
houses
(P.75/2008)
App. not yet
submitted
Field 578, Trinity
30 30
houses
(P.75/2008)
8053
P/2009/1600
Permit
Fields 561 and 562, St. Mary
15 15
houses
TOTAL COMPLETIONS DUE 160 18 178
79
Appendix 7: SCHEDULE OF KNOWN COMPLETIONS DUE FOR OPEN MARKET LIFELONG
HOMES, BY TYPE, 2009 TO END 2012 Ref. Site Units by Type
1
bed
2
bed
3
bed
4
bed
5
bed
Total
COMPLETIONS DUE BY END 2009 TO END 2012 None
P/2006/2489
U/C
La Providence,
Fields 848, 851, 853 & 854,
Bel Royal, St. Lawrence (H2
site)
5(ret) 5
houses
8053
P/2009/1600
Permit
Fields 561 and 562, St. Mary
(P.75/2008)
3 3 bungalows
P/2010/0112
Planning App.
Field 605, St. John
(P.75/2008)
17 17 bungalows
7172
P/2009/2388
Planning App.
Field 274, La Lourderie, St.
Clement
(P.75/2008)
19 19 bungalows
Prelim. Advice Fields 516, 516A, 517 and
518, St. Saviour
(P.75/2008) *
98 98
flats
1270
P/2009/2419
Planning App.
Field 91A, Belle Vue,
(Lesquende), Les Quennevais,
St. Brelade
24 24
houses
TOTAL COMPLETIONS DUE 166 166
* Plus 75-bed residential care home
Appendix 8: SCHEDULE OF KNOWN COMPLETIONS DUE FOR SOCIAL RENTED
LIFELONG HOMES, BY TYPE, 2009 TO END 2012 Ref. Site Units by Type
1
bed
2
bed
3
bed
4
bed
5
bed
Total
Completions due by end 2009 to end 2012 App. not yet
submitted
Field 578, Trinity
(P.75/2008)
6 6 bungalows
7671
P/2008/2471
B/2009/0304
B/2009/0331
B/2009/0337
Permit
Fields 818 and part Field 873,
Trinity
(P.75/2008)
14 14 bungalows
P/2010/0126
Planning App.
Field 148, Rue des Maltières,
Grouville
(P.75/2008)
20 20 bungalows
8053
P/2009/1600
Permit
Fields 561 and 562, St. Mary
(P.75/2008)
14 14 bungalows
7172
P/2009/2388
Planning App.
Field 274, La Lourderie, St.
Clement
(P.75/2008)
15 15 bungalows
Prelim. Advice Fields 516, 516A, 517 and
518, St. Saviour
(P.75/2008)
80 80
flats
80
1270
P/2009/2419
Planning App.
Field 91A, Belle Vue,
(Lesquende), Les Quennevais,
St. Brelade
36 36
flats
TOTAL COMPLETIONS DUE 185 185 N.B. Land northeast of Maison St. Brelade zoned in (P.75/2008) for extension to nursing home
(22 single bed units)
Appendix 9: SCHEDULE OF PROJECTED SALES OF HOUSING PROPERTY TO FIRST-TIME
BUYERS, BY TYPE, 2009 TO END 2012 Ref. Site Units by Type
1
bed
2
bed
3
bed
4
bed
5
bed
Total
2010
Up to 25 sales predominantly
on the following sites:
Grasett Park, St. Saviour
Oak Tree Gardens, St. Helier
Gorey Village, Grouville
Bashfords, St. Saviour
36½, Belmont Road, St. Helier
Les Cinq Chenes, St. Saviour
Clos de Roncier, St. Clement
25
2011
Up to 30 sales predominantly
on the following sites:
Grasett Park, St. Saviour
Oak Tree Gardens, St. Helier
Gorey Village, Grouville
Bashfords, St. Saviour
36½, Belmont Road, St. Helier
Les Cinq Chenes, St. Saviour
Clos Du Roncier, St. Clement
30
2012
Up to 40 sales predominantly
on the following sites:
Grasett Park, St. Saviour
Oak Tree Gardens, St. Helier
Gorey Village, Grouville
Bashfords, St. Saviour
Les Cinq Chenes, St. Saviour
Clos Du Roncier, St. Clement
40
TOTAL SALES DUE 95
81
Appendix 10: SCHEDULE OF PROJECTED SALES OF HOUSING SOCIAL RENTED PROPERTY
ON THE OPEN MARKET, BY TYPE, 2009 TO END 2012 Ref. Site Units by Type
1
bed
2
bed
3
bed
4
bed
5
bed
Total
2010
La Grande Maison 2 & 3, Le
Grand Cotil, St. Martin
1 1 2
30, Clos Des Sables,
St. Brelade
1 1
Britannia House, La Rue de la
Mare des Pres, St. John
1 1 1 3
St. Lawrence Arsenal, La
Grande Route de St Laurens,
St. Lawrence
4
flats
1 5
Archirondel Cottage, La Route
de la Cote, St. Martin
1 1
Belleville, La Rue Du
Crocquet, St. Brelade
1 1
97, Don Road, St. Helier 1 1
Modena, Clarence Road,
St. Helier
1 1
8, Belmont Road, St. Helier 1 1
La Grande Maison Cottages
1&2, Le Grand Cotil, St.
Martin
2 2
Sub-total 4 6 4 2 2 18
2011
Britannia House, La Rue de la
Mare des Pres, St. John
1 1 2
Sub-total 1 1 2
TOTAL SALES DUE 4 7 5 2 2 20 Note: The States „Social Housing Property Plan, 2007-2016‟ provides for the sale of 27 houses on the open
market.
82
Appendix 11: STATUS OF ZONED CATEGORY A SITES (@ February 2010)
REMAINING H2 SITES APPROVED AS PART OF THE 2002 ISLAND PLAN On 11 July 2002, the States of Jersey approved the 2002 Island Plan which rezoned 11 sites
throughout the Island for Category A housing. Out of those eleven sites, only the following
two sites remain to be developed.
H2 (8) Field 190 – 192, La Rue Sergente, St Brelade (indicative yield: 27 homes) A planning application (P/2007/0223) was received from a private developer on 26 January
2007 for 26 homes. The application was approved on 11th February 2008, subject to a
planning obligation agreement being entered into, which is in the process of being drawn up.
A building application (B/2007/0654) was submitted for 27 homes on 28th January 2007 and
approved on 19th December 2008. A revised building application (B/2009/0397) for 26
homes was submitted on 1st May 2009 and approved on 3
rd December 2009. Work started on
some preliminary site works on 2nd
July 2009.
The developers are looking to start construction work in the early summer and estimates that
the development will take 15-18 months to complete. They are currently envisaging
completion around the end of 2011. Delays to-date are largely put down to the impact of the
Credit Crunch, including increased difficulties in obtaining development finance and the lack
of available / affordable mortgage finance for prospective purchasers.
H2 (10) Field 873, St Lawrence (indicative yield: 14 homes) More recently, the Department took the view that this site can accommodate a Category A
housing development for 10 dwellings, providing 5 first time buyer and 5 Jersey Homebuy
dwellings.
Recent discussions and correspondence have taken place with the landowner‟s architect, who
is currently investigating the feasibility of developing the site. The architect wrote in to the
Planning Department at the end of November 2009 seeking preliminary advice for an initial
scheme of 12 dwellings and this is still pending.
Delays to-date have largely been down to the unwillingness of the former land owner to see
the site developed. However, the land has recently been inherited and active attempts are now
being made to progress the development.
P.75/2008 SITES APPROVED BY THE STATES OF JERSEY IN 2008 On 16 July 2008, the States of Jersey approved Projet 75/2008, which rezoned 8 sites
throughout the Island for Category A housing.
On 25 February 2009, the Minister approved the Planning Briefs and interested parties were
invited to submit applications.
The planning department has held discussions on all of the sites, which are being progressed
and are at different stages of advancement.
83
Fields 818 and part of Field 873, Trinity (indicative yield: 12 x Social Rented
Lifelong Homes) A planning application (P/2008/2471) was received from the Parish of Trinity on 25
November 2008 for 14 lifelong dwellings. The application was approved on 18 February
2009.
Three building applications for the 14 units (B/2009/0304, B/2009/0331 and B/2009/0337)
were subsequently approved on 3rd
July 2009. Work started on-site on 14th October 2009.
Land north east of Maison St. Brelade (indicative yield: extension to form 8 units
of accommodation) A planning application was received from the Parish of St Brelade (P/2008/2065) on 19
September 2008 for a 21 bedroom extension to Maison St Brelade. The application was
approved on 18 February 2009. The building consent (B/2009/1208) followed on 3rd
February 2010.
The project is currently out to tender for a 6 to 7 month period. It will then need to be costed
out, so the Parish can consider how best to fund the development before taking it to a Parish
Assembly. It is hoped that the project will commence early next year and it looks likely that
there will be a series of phased stages over the next 4 or 5 years.
Fields 561 and 562, St. Mary (indicative yield: 33 homes – a mix of f-t-b and both
social rented and open market Lifelong homes) A planning application was received from a private developer (P/2009/1600) on 21 August
2009 for 33 dwellings, providing a mix of first-time buyer, open market lifelong dwellings for
the over-55s and lifelong dwellings for social rent. The application was approved, subject to
a planning obligation being entered into, on 12th November 2009.
The developer is currently looking to obtain Byelaw approval and envisages starting as soon
as that has been granted. It is envisaged that the project, from commencement, will take 15 to
18 months to complete. The developer has alluded to a certain amount of delay whilst efforts
were made to resolve drainage issues at the site.
Field 274, La Lourderie, St. Clement (indicative yield: 34 Lifelong homes) Access to the site is dependent on the developer acquiring the property „Highworth‟.
Following the issue of the development brief in February 2009, an initial design meeting took
place on 12 June 2009 between the developers architect and the planning officer to provide a
mix of approximately 34 lifelong dwellings for older people (over 55). An application for
preliminary planning advice was received from a private developer on 18 August 2009 and a
response provided on 12 October 2009.
More recently, a planning application for 34 homes (P/2009/2388) was received from a
private developer on 23 December 2009 and is currently pending.
Field 605, St. John (indicative yield: 16 Lifelong homes) A planning application (P/2010/0112) was received from a private developer on 1 February
2010 for 17 open market lifelong dwellings for older people (over 55) and is currently
pending.
The development of this site is linked with the development of Field 148 Grouville (see
comments for next site) and it has been necessary for the developer to obtain agreements with
the Parish Constables in question and negotiate necessary land swaps. The developer remains
keen to progress the scheme at the earliest opportunity. As soon as he gets planning
84
permission, he will make an application for building consent. It is anticipated that, following
commencement, the scheme will take 15 months to complete.
Field 148, Rue des Maltières, Grouville (indicative yield: 20 Lifelong homes) A planning application (P/2010/0126) was received from a private developer on 1 February
2010 for 20 social rent lifelong dwellings for the Parish of Grouville and is currently pending.
Field 605, St. John and Field 148, Grouville will be tied together with a planning obligation
agreement which will deliver a 45% open market life-long homes on Field 605 and 55%
social rent homes on Field 148 (reflecting the wish of the owner to offer all the homes built
on Field 148 to the Parish).
The developer is keen to progress the scheme and will apply for building consent as soon as
he get planning permission. It is anticipated that, following commencement, the scheme will
take 15 months to complete.
Fields 516, 516A, 517 and 518, St. Saviour (indicative yield: 98 open market
Lifelong homes and 80 social rented Lifelong homes) Discussions have been underway with the developer, for several years, to develop a mixed
tenure retirement village of approximately 98 no. open market and 80 no. social rent lifelong
dwellings (for people over 55). In that time the developer has also reached an agreement with
the Parish of St Saviour to provide them with thirty social rent lifelong dwellings free of
charge.
The proposals also include a residential care and dementia home, guardian accommodation,
indoor and outdoor recreational facilities, shop, surgery, car parking and amenity space. A
public car park to relieve potential on-street parking in Chasse Brunet and amenity open space
will also be provided as part of the development.
In July 2009, the Minister for Planning and Environment introduced a requirement for
Environmental Impact Assessments to be carried out on large residential schemes and
because of the size of this development an EIA has been requested.
Following the release of the planning briefs in February 2009, the developer and his architect
held an initial design meeting with planning officers (4 March 2009) and several more
meetings have taken place since to resolve the design issues. A planning application is
expected in the near future, but, in view of the financing difficulties arising from the „Credit
Crunch‟, the developer has decided to make significant changes to the “style” of the
development. He would be disappointed if his finalised plans were not approved this year
and he anticipates that the scheme will be developed before the end of the first five year
period of the draft Island Plan.
Field 578, Trinity (indicative yield: 36 homes - a mix of f-t-b and social rented
Lifelong homes) It is anticipated that this site could accommodate approximately 30 no. first-time buyer and 6
no. one-bedroom lifelong dwellings.
An application has yet to be submitted. However, the Parish has had initial discussions with
begun the Housing Department at the end of February 2010 to discuss the way forward
regarding the financing of the scheme and the purchasing of the proposed properties. The
Constable considers that there may merit a review of the housing mix for the site, but remains
hopeful that the development will be completed in the first five year period of the draft Island
Plan.
85
OTHER RECENT CATEGORY A PROPOSALS
Le Squez Estate Redevelopment (Phase 2) A planning application was received from the Minister for Housing (P/2009/0780) on 8 April
2009 for redevelopment to provide 76 Category A dwellings. The application was approved 9
July 2009.
Uplands Hotel (Field 1218) Planning permission was granted (P/2006/2648) for 14 homes on 15
th January 2009, to
comprise 8 first-time buyer homes and 6 Jersey Homebuy homes. A building application
(B/2009/0038) was subsequently approved on 4th February 2009 and work started on-site on
17th November 2009.
An additional planning application was received from a private developer (P/2009/1092) for
the northern part of the Field on 29 May 2009 for a Category A housing development for 10
dwellings, providing 5 first time buyer and 5 Jersey Homebuy dwellings. This is currently
pending.
Field 91A Belle Vue, A planning application was received from Jersey Property Holdings (P/2009/2419) on 31
December 2009 for a mix of approximately 36 apartments and 24 dwellings for older people
(over 55) and is currently pending.
H3 (8) Field 1248, La Pouquelaye, St Helier On 17 September 2008, a planning application was submitted (P2008/2063) for Field 1248 to
develop 28 first time buyer homes and 26 social rent life-long flats. The application was
considered by the Planning Application Panel who subsequently referred it to the Minister for
P&E for determination. The Minister for P&E refused the application on 9 October 2009 on
the basis that he considered States Members had an expectation that the site would be referred
back to the States for debate and that the Draft Island Plan did not recommend the site for
development. An appeal against that decision is currently before the Courts.