An Evaluation of the Potential for Commercial Navigation to Further

Facilitate Freight Transportation in the Tennessee River Valley

Larry G. Bray, Ph.D.Center for Transportation Research

University of Tennessee

Study funded by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers-Nashville District and the

Tennessee Department of Transportation

Study Scope

• What commodities have potential for diversion to barge transportation?

• Truck• Rail

• What policy alternatives might encourage or facilitate the diversions?

• What environmental and economic externalities might be associated with the diversions?

Data and Information Sources

• 2007 Global Insight TranSearch for truck freight–All Tennessee counties–Entrance-exit counties ringing Tennessee–Larger groupings for less proximate areas

• 2007 Freight Waybill Sample data for rail freightage

• 2008 USACE Waterborne Statistical Center for waterborne traffic

• Field interviews

Analytical Methods Employed

• We examined databases to identify large quantities of goods moving within Tennessee, in and out of major metropolitan areas, or between waterway subregions

• We estimated potential rail and truck-to-barge diversion quantities for waterway subregions by 4-digit STCC codes – Examined shipping patterns that followed the course

of the navigable streams and originated and terminated in or near river counties.

– Calculated diversion potentials

Tennessee Freight Traffic Mix

Mode Tons (000) Percent

Truck 573,289 62.9%

Rail 278,376 30.5%

Barge 60,038 6.6%

From here forward this presentation focuses on potential

truck diversions and longer distance movements (>50 miles)

Truck Tonnages by O-D Type(Movements >50 miles)

Origin-Destination Tons Percent

Tennessee destination only 69,662,964 14%

Tennessee origin only 80,932,855 16%

Tennessee origin and destination 42,507,671 8%

Through Tennessee 308,488,649 62%

Total 501,592,140 100%

Top 10 Tennessee Truck Freight Flows(For Movements >50 Miles)

Warehouse & distribution center

Chemicals or allied products

Food and kindred productsNonmetallic ores, minerals,

excluding fuelsFarm products

Primary metal productsLumber or wood products,

excluding furnitureClay, concrete, glass, or

stone productsRubber or miscellaneous

plastics productsFabricated metal products

0.0 20,000,000.0 40,000,000.0 60,000,000.0 80,000,000.0

TN Destination

TN Origin

TN O-D

TN-Thru

Top Four Tennessee Truck Tonnages(For Movements >50 Miles)

Commodity(STCC2 Codes)

TN Origin

TN Dest.

TN Origin

and Dest.

TN Thru Total

Warehouse & Distribution 10.8 11.2 14.5 36.2 72.6

Chemicals 2.4 8.9 0.5 43.7 55.4

Food 4.8 6.3 1.6 42.3 55.0

Nonmetallic ores and minerals 12.3 13.8 9.5 6.7 42.4

84% of nonmetallic ores/minerals is TN origin or destination

Millions of Tons

Analytical Project: Estimate Potential Truck-to-Barge Diversion Tonnages

• Identify all counties on navigable waterways and define county subregions within 30 and 50-mile radii

• Identify freight totals for 4-digit STCC commodities for those movements having an origin and destination county on or near a waterway county (within 30 or 50 miles)

• Weight the tons for port to port distance (longer more likely to divert) and distance to the river (shorter more likely to divert)

• Sum the total of the weighted movements for the waterway county subregions

• Examine and eliminate overlapping county subregions

• Retain movements with high weighted values for further examination

Navigable Waterway Counties

Largest Truck Diversion Potentials for 50-Mile Radii Subregions

Commodity Aggregate Tons

Warehousing and Distribution 5,875,357

Broken Stone or Riprap 2,104,270

Portland Cement 1,011,084

Metallic Ores 886,509

Gravel or Sand 731,500

Primary Forest Products 244,357

Miscellaneous Field Crops 194,470

Nonmetallic Minerals Processed 181,494

Treated wood Products 167,081

Misc. Nonmetallic Minerals 138,739

Total 12,051,872

Further Investigation

Field interviews with shippers verified warehouse and distribution center shipments were highly unlikely to divert to barge.

Generally, the heavier and more heterogeneous the commodity group composition, the less likely are movements to divert.

Heavier, more homogenous commodities such as stone, gravel, sand, gravel, and cement are more likely. These are prime candidates to be explored further.

Will the shipping costs by barge be lower than by all truck? It depends.

• We rated 266,511 tons of stone material (we think it was paving stone) from an on river quarry to a construction site in Wilson County

• The shipper savings was estimated to be $7.03 per ton– It is assumed that the batch plant is located

adjacent to the river– Also, the Global Insight file gives annual numbers

and we had to assume the daily value

What about Externalities?

• Scenario 1: A diversion to barge of I24 truck traffic carrying various commodities from Nashville to the Clarksville area.– 1.6 million tons per year/28 trucks per hour in

daylight

• Scenario 2: A diversion of broken stone truck traffic to barge from downtown Clarksville along I24 to Nashville.– Same scenario we rated (266,511 tons)

Scenario 1 Social CostsDelays, Accidents, Fuel Costs, Air Pollution

Traffic growth rate Present value social cost

1% $0.149 billion

2% $0.344 billion

3% $1.218 billion

Scenario 2 Social CostsDelays, Accidents, Fuel Costs, Air Pollution

Traffic growth rate Present value social cost

1% $0.037 billion

2% $0.085 billion

3% $1.443 billion

Open Communication

• Long-distance stone movements passing in, out, or through multiple states can best be understood or addressed when the state and federal governments have open communication lines.

• Long truck hauls from Tennessee into Mississippi are most likely destined for MDOT construction projects, and it would have to be MDOT that addresses the transportation issue. TDOT would have no information about the movement.

Options for Federal and State Government

• Examine contracts to determine if water transportation is an option

• Make modal preference integral to contract-making• Advertise: alert shippers to the potential benefits of

water transportation• Develop partnerships between shippers and carriers• Investigate a multi-state corridor study to determine

the benefits of using the navigable waterways as a transportation corridor.

Conclusion

The study yields evidence for significant land freight diversion to water possibilities, such that a multi-state consortium could lower the cost of operating all of the DOTs, make better use of the transportation infrastructure, improve air quality, lessen congestion, and make our highways safer.