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An Evaluation of Poverty Reduction Support Credits:

World BankBudget Support toIDA CountriesAnjali KumarIndependent Evaluation Group, World Bank

Presentation to the American Evaluation Association

November 11th 2010www.worldbank.org/ieg/prsc

A Budget Support Lending Instrument

► Mode of aid that disburses directly into a country’s budget – in contrast to project aid

► PRSCs were intended to help responsible IDA countries to implement their Poverty Reduction Strategies, in a results-based framework

► Provide harmonized, predictable aid commitments

► Strengthen budget processes and public finance

Evaluation Objectives: ► Assess the extent to which PRSCs were

able to meet their core objectives► Examine their relevance and

effectiveness in supporting growth and alleviating poverty

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From 2001 to 2009, there were 99 PRSCs in 27 countries worth $8 billion. PRSCs were intended to…

Building Blocks: Data Sources

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► Sources of information:• Desk review: objectives, design, effectiveness, results

framework of 88 PRSC projects• Field evaluations: 7 country case studies covering 31

PRSC operations, 8 completed PRSC series, 4 four ongoing series, and 33 percent of PRSC disbursements over FY01-FY08. Available at the IEG website.

• Surveys: Task team leaders, Sector specialists, Government stakeholders

• Relevant databases, including: WB evaluative data, ALCID, POVCAL, CPIA,

ROSCs, OECD Aid Aggregates, Monitoring of Paris

Declaration, IMF IFS► Extensive literature including other case studies

Evaluation Methods

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► Triangulate data to establish plausible causality• Establish a Results chain• Account for other determinants

► Compare ‘before and after’ changes in performance of PRSC beneficiaries • But: ‘before’ and ‘after’ comparisons of

outcomes are limited by problems of identification due to the endogeneity of policy responses within each country

► Compare changes in PRSC countries to changes experienced by IDA countries that have not benefited from PRSCs • “Difference in difference” approach• Add controls for ‘better performing’ IDA

countries

Evaluation Questions and Results Chain

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Inputs

• Appropriate program design and analytical underpinning

• Aligning resource flow with domestic processes and timetable

• Enhancing donor collaboration

Outputs

• Implementation of a strategic subset of the PRSP• More predictable resource flows and resource use

aligned with PRS • Harmonization of donor programs• Improved domestic accountability

Outcomes

• Improved climate for growth and improved pro-poor service delivery

• More effective public administration

Impact

• Sustained growth• Reduction of income and non-income poverty

Challenges and Caveats

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► Parallel changes affecting all World Bank Development Policy Lending occurred over the period of analysis• New Bank guidelines in August 2004 for all

DPLs; • PRSC Interim Guidelines were not formalized

though PRSC operations continued • Analysis adds a filter for two sub-periods,

2001 to 2004 and 2005 to 2008 ► PRSC is usually one part of a larger basket of

donor funded general budget support ► Both the Bank and other donor partners use a

range of instruments to support country development programs. • Account for role of other donors and other

instruments

1. PRSCs improved aid processes• Eased, flexible,

conditionality• Better predictability -

volume, frequency and budget alignment

• Enhanced country ownership

• More pro-poor service delivery

2. Growth and poverty outcomes are unclear

• Weak Results frameworks• Partial Support to Sectors

3. Other Policy Based Lending converged to a similar design

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Evaluation Findings - Three Key Messages

Evaluating Conditionality

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► Did conditionality ease with PRSCs? Was conditionality more flexibly applied? • Compare numbers of prior actions (legally

binding) and program benchmarks (not legally binding) in PRSCs compared to non-PRSC policy based loans during FY80-00 period – prior adjustment

lending during the PRSC period FY01-08 during PRSC subperiods FY01-04 and FY05-08

► Triangulate with Client Perceptions of Conditionality• Nature and numbers of Conditions• Program Implementation and Political Change• Recognition of Implementation Constraints

1219

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

080

10

20

30

40

50

Conditions in Bank adjustment loans, FY1980 -- FY2008

Ave

rage

# o

f con

ditio

ns p

er o

pera

tion

28 383336303842 3228 23483629292727 323032322931 23161699 144

2 1916171072 15

PRSC legal conditions

Non-PRSC legal conditions

…but conditionality declined in all policy lending

Eased conditionality -

Evaluating the Predictability of PRSCs

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► Predictability measured by:• Likelihood, based on past frequencies, of a PRSC

recipient country receiving a PRSC in a given year, compared to previous adjustment loans.

• Likelihood, based on observed past frequencies, of a PRSC country receiving any policy-based budget support, compared to previous adjustment lending.

• Stability of volumes of budget support received via PRSCs compared to previous adjustment lending, in absolute terms and as a proportion of total IDA/IBRD flows received

► Comparison of PRSC lending projections envisaged in country strategy documents vs. actual disbursements

► Other studies measured predictability by comparing:• Actual budget vs. predicted budget support

disbursements• Commitments vs. disbursements

Evaluating the regularity and timing of PRSC disbursements

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► Alignment of budget support relative to the budget needs: • Timing of disbursements

relative to country budget year: • Percentage of operations that

disbursed in last quarter of the preceding fiscal year

• Or in the first quarter of the current fiscal year

► Regularity of disbursements measured by:• Percentage of operations in a

series that disbursed in the same quarter, in each successive year

Burkina Faso is a good example…

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1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

0

10000000

20000000

30000000

40000000

50000000

60000000

70000000

80000000

90000000

100000000

Q4

Q3

Q2

Q1

PRSC 1

PRSC 2

PRSC 3

PRSC 4

PRSC 7

PRSC 6

PRSC 5

PRSC 1

PRSC 2

PRSC 3

PRSC 4

PRSC 7

PRSC 6

PRSC 5

PRSC 1

PRSC 2

PRSC 3

PRSC 4

PRSC 7

PRSC 6

PRSC 5

PRSC 1

PRSC 2

PRSC 3

PRSC 4

PRSC 7

PRSC 6

PRSC 5

PRSC 1

PRSC 2

PRSC 3

PRSC 4

PRSC 7

PRSC 6

PRSC 5

PRSC 1

PRSC 2

PRSC 3

PRSC 4

PRSC 7

PRSC 6

PRSC 5

PRSC 1

PRSC 2

PRSC 3

PRSC 4

PRSC 7

PRSC 6

PRSC 5

PRSC 1

PRSC 2

PRSC 3

PRSC 4

PRSC 7

PRSC 6

PRSC 5

A steady volume of disbursements, in the same quarter per series…

More predictable resources …

20as in other DPLs

Education

Finance

Health

Ind. & Trade

Public sector

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

non-PRSC PBL (IDA) FY95-00 - 92 projects

Education

Finance

Health

Ind. & Trade

Public sector

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

PRSC (01-08) 87 Operations

Education

Finance

Health

Ind. & Trade

Public sector

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%non-PRSC PBL (IDA) FY05-08 - 57 projects

Evaluating sector support through PRSCs: Increased spending on education, health, PFM

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► PRSCs were initially perceived as a potential vehicle for all lending, including sector lending

► But ultimately, PRSC support complemented sector lending; replacement was rare

► IEG’s comparison of PRSC operations with the Country Assistance Strategies for PRSC countries shows that:• Many countries tried to channel sector lending

through the PRSC: Of 15 CASs in health & education, only 2

achieved sustained results Of 6 CASs in nutrition, water supply,

agriculture or environmental management, 1 on a sustained basis

Evaluating Budget support through PRSCs compared to sector lending…

Achievements► Did the PRSC process help to

harmonize donor matrices? Yes, PRSCs played a supporting role

► Were transaction costs for recipients reduced? Yes, to some extent

► Did other donors benefit? Yes, Bank expertise was made available to recipients and other donors

► But – there were initial perception of increased conditionality

► And increased transaction costs for the Bank (e.g. Mozambique, Ghana)

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Evaluating Donor harmonizationAchievements and Challenges

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Methodology of PFMP Evaluation of PRSCsDiagnostics• Were diagnostics comprehensive?• Extend of coverage• Treatment of fiduciary risk

• Were weaknesses addressed by PRSC program?• Was PRSC reform program consistent with action plans from

diagnostics?Design & Implementation• How well designed was results framework for PFMP?• Integrated action plan supported by key donors?• Significant delays in reforms?• Extent and quality of capacity building

Results• Before/After reform improvement in PFMP performance

where PRSC reforms focused• Achievement of PFMP objectives in PRSCs• General improvement in PFMP systems (CPIA etc.)

► Reforms well grounded in diagnostics led to well sequenced strategy agreed with donors

► Program achievements were in easier areas (e.g., budget classification reform)

► More difficult reforms show less success (e.g. bringing extra-budgetary funds and donor funds on budget; timely resource transfer to sector ministries)

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Most PRSCs achieved their PFMP reform objectives, with minor shortcomings

  1985-1999 2000-2007

Per Capita GDP growth

PRSC countries 0.8 4.2

Better Performing Non-PRSC 0.5 3.3

All IDA countries 0.2 3.0

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Attribution to the PRSC is difficult

PRSC countries grew faster in the PRSC period…but so did other

countries

Poverty Rates for PRSC and Non-PRSC Countries (% of population below $38 per month)

PRSC countries

(20)

Better performing non-PRSC

(24)*

Non-PRSC counties

(36)

All IDA countries

(56)

% change (1984-99) -16.2 -12.6 -2.1 -7.8

% change (1999-2005)

-19.3 -13.0 -10.8 -14.1

but the decline began before the PRSC was introduced

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PRSC countries had more income poverty reduction…

PRSC Countries had greater progress with Millennium Development Goals…

PRSC and Other Countries: Millennium Development Goal Achievement

Difference (%)(% of population) (1990/1–2000/1) (2001–06)Primary enrollment, net PRSC 9.7 14.8 All IDA countries 11.6 9.1Infant mortality (per 1000) PRSC -19.0 -13.3 All IDA countries -14.5 -9.6Access to safe water PRSC 20.2 7.3 All IDA countries 12.6 4.8

…and progress was faster than before the PRSC period

…and faster than all IDA countries in the PRSC period

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Poverty rates declined in PRSC countries although attribution is

difficultIncome poverty rates fell faster in

PRSC countries, in the PRSC period, but also fell faster prior to the PRSC

In non-income measures of poverty PRSC countries did better, and improvement in the PRSC period was faster

Yet most PRSC programs do not trace links between actions and poverty outcomes

Parallel sector projects increase the difficulty of attribution

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IEG INDEPENDENT EVALUATION GROUP

Thank youwww.worldbank.org/ieg/prsc