an environmental risk assessment method for training and
TRANSCRIPT
An Environmental Risk Assessment Method for Training and
Firing Ranges
Ulf Qvarfort1, Jan Sjöström1 & Per Alexis2 1Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI), 901 82 Umeå, Sweden 2Swedish Fortifications Agency, 631 89 Eskilstuna, Sweden
Based on;
SWEDEC:s* classification about UXO and
used ammunition
Information about
geology/hydrogeology/nature
MIFO risk assessment
*Swedish EOD and Demining Centre (SWEDEC)
State of information
Total picture of
UXO-facts
Estimated UXO
concentration
Probability of contact:
recreational area
Probability of contact: land
development
Probability of detonation
RISK
ANALYSIS
RISK MANAGEMENT
END-USE vs. RISK REDUCING MEASURES
UXO FACTS
Bayesian Network Model for Risk Analysis FOI model RMV
Classification
History
Target Area
Used ammunition
Calculated UXO
Residual quantity of metals and TNT.
Input data for Ammunition
Type of ammunition
The number of shots fired for each Target Area
The amount of Metals (Fe, Cu, Zn, Pb) and explosives
The amount of UXO
The amount of cracked UXO (calculated)
UXO in different Target areas
Area Ha UXO/ha Total
C1 15 1 15
C4 13 25 325
C7 13 25 325
C9 19 3 57
C13 24 1 24
C14 38 1 38
C18 16 2 32
C20 13 4 52
C22 4 4 16
C23 25 2 50
C24 14 1 14
C28 16 1 16
C29 16 4 64
C30 2 15 30
C33 12 2 24
C38 52 2 104
C39 6 2 12
C41 10 2 20
C42 5 40 200
D15 15 20 300
D27 26 10 260
D34 18 8 144
D37 6 33 198
D40 24 81 1944
D44 15 23 345
D45 300 80 24000
Sum 1011 28609
Example for the amount of TNT inside a
target area.
Ammunition TNT kg UXO total UXO broken ? TNT total kg TNT broken kg
75 gr 2,11 650 65 1372 137
80 Ving 0,71 430 43 305 31
120 Ving 22 240 24 528 53
150 gr 5,63 430 43 2421 242
155 gr 8,5 650 65 5525 553
Total 2400 240 10151 1015
Water analysis Hällån
ELEMENT Hällån-in Hällån-out
Ca mg/l 25 41,1
Fe mg/l 0,0194 0,0354
K mg/l <0,5 <0,5
Mg mg/l 3,91 3,74
Na mg/l 0,894 1,03
S mg/l <0,2 0,423
Al µg/l 5,48 4,55
As µg/l <1 <1
Ba µg/l 7,45 15,3
Cd µg/l <0,05 <0,05
Co µg/l <0,05 <0,05
Cr µg/l <0,5 <0,5
Cu µg/l <1 <1
Hg µg/l <0,02 0,032
Mn µg/l 0,72 1,77
Ni µg/l 0,611 0,612
Pb µg/l <0,2 <0,2
Sb µg/l <0,1 <0,1
W µg/l <0,5 1,01
U µg/l 0,0214 0,172
Zn µg/l <2 <2
Explosives< 0,01 μg/l
Leakage of TNT in a small area (5 x 5 m).
Precipitation 650 mm/yr. Mean temp 2,8 oC
Time 30 years since spill of TNT cereals
0,1m1239mg/kg
-0,5m128mg/kg
-2,0m<0,1mg/kg
Groundwater,center=18mg/l
Groundwater,10mdownstream=0,8mg/l
Groundwater,20mdownstream=<0,01mg/l
Groundwaterlevel2,3m.b.s
-1,0m2mg/kg
Factors for Risk Assessment
• Hazard assessment (H)
• Contamination level (C)
• Migration potential (MP)
• Sensitivity/protection value (S/P)