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An Enormous Cloud of Air Pollutants and Ash from Mt. Pinatubo on June 12, 1991

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Core Case Study: Studying a Volcano to Understand Climate Change June 1991: Mount Pinatubo (Philippines) exploded Airborne pollutants, deaths, and damage Affected climate temperature Climate predictions based on the forecasts of James Hansen of NASA

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Climate Control and Ozone Depletion Chapter 19

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TED Talks

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Global Warming and Global Cooling Are Not New Over the past 4.7 billion years the climate has been altered by Volcanic emissions Changes in solar input Movement of the continents Impacts by meteors

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Estimated Changes in the Average Global Temperature of the Atmosphere

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Current CO 2 Concentrations Your take-home lab...

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The Vostok ice core provides the longest continuous record of Antarctic climatic history. Analysis of the core has been completed to a depth of 3350 meters, representing approximately 440,000 years of climate history.

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Our Climate, Lives, and Economies Depend on the Natural Greenhouse Effect Without the natural greenhouse effect Cold, uninhabitable earth

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Human Activities Emit Large Quantities of Greenhouses Gases Since the Industrial Revolution CO 2, CH 4, and N 2 O emissions higher Main sources: agriculture, deforestation, and burning of fossil fuels Correlation of rising CO 2 and CH 4 with rising global temperatures Countries with the largest CO 2 emissions

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Contd Per capita emissions of CO 2 Scientific and economic studies 2007: Field and Marland Tipping point 2008: Aufhammer and Carson Chinas CO 2 emission growth may be underestimated

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Atmospheric Levels of CO 2 and CH 4, Global Temperatures, and Sea Levels

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The Atmosphere Is Warming Mostly Because of Human Activities Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 9099% likely that lower atmosphere is warming 19062005: Ave. temp increased about 0.74C

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What natural and human-influenced factors could have an effect on temperature changes? Amplify Dampen Positive and negative feedback

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Comparison of Measured Temperature from 18602007 and Projected Changes

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19062005: Ave. temp increased about 0.74C Consensus: earths Mean temp will rise 2-4.5 o C 2005-2100 2007 Field and Marland: 275 years ago 280 ppm CO2 2007- 384 ppm 2013- 396 ppm Current annual increase 3.3% 2050- 560 ppm CO2 2100- 1390 ppm

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The average North American generates about 20 tons of CO 2 -eq each year. http://www.eoearth.org/article/Carbon_footprint

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Enhanced Global Warming Could Have Severe Consequences Tipping point and irreversible climate change Worst-case scenarios...

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Projected Effects of Global Warming and the Resulting Changes in Global Climate

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Drought Accelerate global warming, lead to more drought Biodiversity will decrease NPP will decrease Dry climate ecosystems will increase Other effects of prolonged lack of water

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Ice and Snow Are Melting Why will global warming be worse in the polar regions? Important climate role of floating sea ice Mountain glaciers affected by Average snowfall Average warm temperatures Europes Alps Glaciers are disappearing South America Glaciers are disappearing Greenland Warmer temperatures

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Melting of Alaskas Muir Glacier between 1948 and 2004

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The Big Melt: Some of the Floating Sea Ice in the Arctic Sea

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Science Focus: Melting Ice in Greenland Largest island: 80% composed of glaciers 10% of the worlds fresh water 19962007: net loss of ice doubled Effect on sea level if melting continues

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Sea Levels Are Rising Expansion of warm water Melting of land-based ice

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Sea Levels Are Rising Projected irreversible effect Degradation and loss of 1/3 of coastal estuaries, wetlands, and coral reefs Disruption of coastal fisheries Flooding of Low-lying barrier islands and coastal areas Agricultural lowlands and deltas Contamination of freshwater aquifers Submergence of low-lying islands in the Pacific and Indian Oceans and the Caribbean

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Areas of Florida, U.S., to Flood If Average Sea Level Rises by One Meter

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Low-Lying Island Nation: Maldives in the Indian Ocean

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Permafrost Carbon present as CH 4 in permafrost soils and lake bottoms 2004: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment 1020% of the permafrost might melt this century Effect on global warming

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Ocean Currents Melting glaciers, particularly in Greenland Increased rain in the North Atlantic Not thought to be an immediate problem on the ocean currents

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Extreme Weather Heat waves and droughts in some areas Prolonged rains and flooding in other areas Will storms get worse? More studies needed Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

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Biodiversity Most susceptible ecosystems Coral reefs Polar seas Coastal wetland High-elevation mountaintops Alpine and arctic tundra

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Contd What about Migratory animals Forests Which organisms could increase with global warming? Significance? Insects Fungi Microbes

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Food Regions of farming may shift Decrease in tropical and subtropical areas Increase in northern latitudes Less productivity; soil not as fertile Genetically engineered crops more tolerant to drought

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Public Health Deaths from heat waves will increase Deaths from cold weather will decrease Higher temperatures can cause Increased flooding Increase in some forms of air pollution, more O 3 More insects, microbes, toxic molds, and fungi

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What Are Our Options? Two approaches Drastically reduce the amount of greenhouse gas emissions Devise strategies to reduce the harmful effects of global warming Will we reach a political tipping point before we reach irreversible climate change tipping points?

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Avoiding Catastrophe: We Can Reduce the Threat of Climate Change Input or prevention strategies see Socolow& Pacala, Brown Improve energy efficiency to reduce fossil fuel use Stop cutting down tropical forests Output strategy CCS

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Fifteen Ways to Cut CO 2 Emissions Socolow and Pacala Climate stabilization wedges Keep CO 2 emissions to 2007 levels by 2057

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Brown: need to do more Cut CO 2 emissions by 80% by 2020 2008 book: Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization.........

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Climate Action Plan Cut Global Net CO 2 Emissions 80% by 2020 Three components: 1.Raising energy efficiency and restructuring transportation 2.Replacing fossil fuels with renewables 3.Ending net deforestation and planting trees to sequester carbon to prevent global atmospheric CO 2 concentrations from exceeding 400 parts per million, minimizing future temperature rise Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Grafissimo

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Plan B Energy Efficiency Measures

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Contd Output solutions Massive global tree planting; how many? Wangari Maathai Great Wall of Trees: China and Africa Plant fast-growing perennials on degraded land Capturing and storing CO 2 Habitable Planet

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Solutions: Global Warming, Methods for Slowing Atmospheric Warming

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Should We Use Geo-Engineering Schemes to Help Slow Climate Change? CCS Injection of sulfate particles into the stratosphere Would it have a cooling effect? Would it accelerate O 3 depletion? Remove HCl from seawater Effects on ecology? Pump up nutrient-rich deep ocean water and cause algal blooms Re-ice the Arctic If any of these fixes fail, what about a rebound effect?

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Governments Can Help Reduce the Threat of Climate Change Strictly regulate CO 2 and CH 4 as pollutants Cap-and-trade approach Increase subsidies to encourage use of energy-efficient technology

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Governments Can Enter into International Climate Negotiations: The Kyoto Protocol 1997: Treaty to slow climate change The Kyoto Protocol Reduce emissions of CO 2, CH 4, and N 2 O by 2012 to levels of 1990 Trading greenhouse gas emissions among countries Not signed by the U.S. President G.W. Bushs reasons Copenhagen

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Some Governments Are Leading the Way Costa Rica: goal to be carbon neutral by 2030 Norway: aims to be carbon neutral by 2050 China and India must change energy habits U.S. cities and states taking initiatives to reduce carbon emissions

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What about the sun? Unstoppable solar cycles

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What Can You Do? Reducing CO 2 Emissions

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Ways to Prepare for the Possible Long-Term Harmful Effects of Climate Change

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Ozone Depletion Ozone Thinning Seasonal depletion in the stratosphere Antarctica and Arctic 1930: Midgely Discovered the first CFC 1984: Rowland and Molina CFCs were depleting O 3 Other ozone-depleting chemicals

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Natural Capital Degradation: Massive Ozone Thinning over Antarctica in 2007 Animation

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Science Focus: Rowland and MolinaA Scientific Story of Courage and Persistence Research CFCs are persistent in the atmosphere Rise into the stratosphere over 11-20 years Break down under high-energy UV radiation Halogens produced accelerate the breakdown of O 3 to O 2 Each CFC molecule can last 65-385 years 1988: Dupont stopped producing CFCs 1995: Nobel Prize in chemistry

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Summary of CFCs and Other Chlorine-Containing Compounds that Destroy Ozone 2O 3 3O 2

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Why Should We Worry about Ozone Depletion? Damaging UV-A and UV-B radiation Increase eye cataracts and skin cancer Impair or destroy phytoplankton Significance?

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Natural Capital Degradation: Effects of Ozone Depletion

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Science Focus: Skin Cancer Squamous cell carcinoma Basal cell carcinoma Melanoma Effect of UV-B radiation How safe are tanning salons?

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What Can You Do? Reducing Exposure to UV Radiation

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We Can Reverse Stratospheric Ozone Depletion Stop producing all ozone-depleting chemicals 60100 years of recovery of the O 3 layer 1987: Montreal Protocol 1992: Copenhagen Protocol Ozone protocols: prevention is the key

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Contd Substitutes for CFCs are available More are being developed HCFC-22 Substitute chemical May still be causing ozone depletion