An Approach to Assessing Agricultural Crop Adaption

The Climate IS ChangingHow do we adapt?

Greg GastonMatt Wilson

University of North Alabama

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2006/aug/aug06.html

Earth's climate pattern is now being put at risk by humankind's actions, Gore said. "We face what I think should be described as a full-scale planetary emergency."While aware such a phrase sounds shrill to many ears, Gore added that "unfortunately, I believe it is exactly dead-on accurate." Gore cited increases in carbon dioxide, the thickening of the atmospheric blanket enveloping Earth, rising sea levels and the increased acidification of the world’s oceans that could completely disrupt the marine food chain."We have a climate crisis," Gore said.http://www.space.com/news/061026_gore_space.html

1990

2006

Elliott Glacier

Mt. Hood, Oregon

On the other hand….

1876-2006 Mean Annual Temperature Time SeriesStation: KALAMAZOO, MI

(from the United States Historical Climatology Network dataset)

Warming on the Martian Surface is causing that planet's ice caps to shrink.

Nature June 1999

Graph of CO2, temperature, and dust concentration measured from the Vostok, Antarctica ice core as reported by Petit et al., 1999

If you want to make a point, why show all the data?

Lets just show the data that supports our arguments!

THE HOLOCENETHE HOLOCENE

From Petit et. al. 1999

“A striking feature of the Vostok ...record is that the Holocene, which has already lasted for 11kyr, is by far the longest stable warm period recorded in Antarctica during the last 420 kyr.”

Climate and Agriculture

Assumptions:

Agricultural crops are grown where they are best adapted to grow.

By examining the core of a commercial crop producing area it should be possible to define the climatic limits for ‘commercial production’

Commercial production is very different from the biological limits of a particular species.

The traditional “corn belt’

Agricultural Production Statistics

(Corn Production/Total Agricultural Land by county)

Climate Data

Using climate station data, a surface was interpolated for the areas between the data points.(Basic IDW surface generation within ArcMap)

The climatic stations within the core commercial production area were used to define the central tendency for the commercial core area.

The climatic factors as defined in the commercial core were ‘adjusted’ to assess the impact of a potential climate change.

Climate Stations

Frost Free Period

The number of days between killing frosts

Growing Degree Days

An index designed to make it possible to compare the number of days above a specified minimum temperature.

For corn, the threshold is 50 degrees F.

Findings

According to the available data, the climate patterns on this planet are highly variable. The last few thousand years of stability appear to be an anomaly. To plan for a stable climate and to assume that current conditions represent the ‘best’ climate is pure foolishness and hubris.

This method appears to be a viable approach to assessing the potential patterns of adaptation that will accompany climate change.

It is not possible to test these findings until the climate does change.

Next steps in research

Utilize station statistics to estimate climate change.

In a given climate, there is variability … rather than use model estimates… we believe it would make more sense to utilize the statistics from a stations to model the changing climate.

e.g. the Mean Frost Free period for the 45% core commercial corn production area is 161 days with a Standard Deviation of 13 days.

“

Statistics: the basis for understanding climate.

Rather than relying on GCM modeling to predict shifts in climate, we can simply use the station statistics to generate hypothetical ‘new’ climate conditions.

The climate conditions we are using are ‘real’, we are simply assuming a shift in the distribution of conditions towards a new mean.

We can both warm and cool the climate and assess the potential impact of shifting climates.