an analytical study on the performance of selected equities in nse

8/7/2019 AN ANALYTICAL STUDY ON THE PERFORMANCE OF SELECTED EQUITIES IN NSE

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AN ANALYTICAL STUDY ONTHE PERFORMANCE OF

SELECTED EQUITIES IN NSEwith reference toSharekhan Ltd

By

R.N. VENKATESH

(Reg.No.21307631054)

of

S.K.R ENGINEERING COLLEGE

A PROJECT REPORT

Submitted to the

FACULTY OF MANAGEMENT SCIENCES

in Partial fulfillment of the requirements

for the award of the degree

of

MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION

May 2009

BONAFIDE CERTIFICATE

Certified that this project report titled AN ANALYTICAL STUDY ON

THE PERFORMANCE OF SELECTED EQUITIES IN NSE WITH

REFERENCE TO SHAREKHAN LTD is the bonafide work of Mr. R.N.

Venkatesh (Reg. No. 21307631054) who carried out the research under my

supervision. Certified further, that to the best of my knowledge the work

reported herein does not form part of any other project report or dissertationon the basis of which a degree or award was conferred on an earlier occasion


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on this or any other candidate.

Prof. D. Ramanathan Mr

Head of the Department Project Guide

Department of Management Studies Department of Management Studies

S.K.R.Engineering College

College

Agarmel, Poonamallee

Chennai 602 103.

EXTERNAL EXAMINER

DECLARATION

I,Mr. R.N. Venkatesh, M.B.A student of SKR Engineering College, would

like to declare that the project work entitled, AN ANALYTICAL

STUDY ON THE PERFORMANCE OF SELECTED EQUITIES

IN NSE WITH REFERENCE TO SHAREKHAN LTD in partialfulfillment of Master of Business Administration course under Anna

University is original project done independently by me under the guidance of

Mr. R. Kumar, Lecturer, Department of Management Studies, SKR

Engineering College, Poonamallee, Chennai-602 103.

Place:

Date: (R.N.

VENKATESH)


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ACKNOWLEDGMENT

I wish to express my gratitude to our Institution and Principal Dr. M. Senthil

Kumar M.E; Ph.D., and Head of the Department Prof. Mr. D. Ramanathanfor timely advice and support given to me right from the initial stage of

project.

I take this grand opportunity to record my everlasting thanks and hearty

feelings of gratitude to my project guide Mr. KUMAR M.B.A for his/her

valuable suggestions

I express my sincere thanks to Mr. Srinivasan, Regional Sales Manager and Mr.

Thulasiram, City sales Manager & Mr. Vivekanandan, HR & Mr. Sadhasivam

Territory Manager of Sharekhan LTD and other share khan employees for the kind

consideration in according permission to do my project work in their esteemed

organization and also rendering their enormous help and guidance for completion of

the project.

I also thank my faculty member of management studies

This work will be incomplete if I fall to thanks my family and friends for their

moral support. I also thank the almighty for making me complete this project

successfully

(R.N.

VENKATESH)

.

LIST OF CONTENT

Chapter No Contents

List of Tables and Figures i

List of Symbols and Abbreviation ii


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ABSTRACT 1

I INTRODUCTION

1.1 Introduction 2

1.2 Statement of the problem 3

1.3 Industrial profile 3

1.4 Company profile 9

1.5 Product profile 16

1.6 Need and Scope of the study 18

1.7 Objectives of the study 19

1.8 Research methodology

1.8.1 Research Problem 19

1.8.2 Sources of data 19

1.8.3 Research design 19

1.8.4 Tools and techniques 20

1.8.5 Sampling size 20

1.9 Limitation of the study 20

II THEORETICAL BACKGROUND

2.1 Theoretical Background 21

2.2 Review of Literature 34

III DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

3.1 Data analysis 36

IV SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

4.1 Findings 111

4.2 Suggestion and recommendations 113

4.3 Conclusion 113

Appendices 114

Bibliography 114

LIST OF TABLES

TABLE

NO

TITLE PAGE

NO

01 Calculation For HDFC Bank Ltd (Moving Average, Exponential Moving

Average and Rate of Change)

36


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02 Calculation of Relative Strength Index for HDFC Bank Ltd 41

03 Calculation of Stochastics Method for HDFC Bank Ltd 45

04 Calculation of Moving Average Convergence And Divergence Method for

HDFC Bank Ltd

48

05 Calculation of Bharti Airtel Ltd (Moving Average, Exponential Moving

Average and Rate Of Change)

51

06 Calculation of Relative Strength Index for Bharti Airtel Ltd 56

07 Calculation of Bharti Airtel Ltd for Period Of 1st Jan-31st Mar in

Stochastics Method

60

08 Calculation of Bharti Airtel Ltd for Period of 1st Jan-31st Mar Moving

Average Convergence and Divergence Method

63

09 Calculation of ONGC for Period of 1st Jan-31st Mar (Moving Average,

Exponential Moving Average and Rate Of Change)

66

10 Calculation of Relative Strength Index for ONGC 71

11 Calculation of ONGC for Period of 1st Jan-31st Mar In Stochastics Method 75

12 Calculation of ONGC for Period of 1st Jan-31st Mar Moving Average

Convergence and Divergence Method

78

13 Calculation of Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd (Moving Average, Exponential

Moving Average and Rate of Change)

81

14 Calculation of Relative Strength Index for Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd 86

15 Calculation of Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd for Period Of 1st Jan-31st Mar in

Stochastics Method

90

16 Calculation of Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd for Period Of 1st Jan-31st Mar

Moving Average Convergence and Divergence Method

93

17 Calculation of DLF Ltd (Moving Average, Exponential Moving Average

and Rate of Change)

96

18 Calculation Of Relative Strength Index For DLF Ltd 101

19 Calculation Of DLF Ltd For Period Of 1

st

Jan-31

st

Mar In StochasticsMethod 105

20 Calculation Of DLF Ltd For Period Of 1st Jan-31st Mar Moving Average

Convergence And Divergence Method

108

LIST OF FIGURES

TABLE NO TITLE PAGE NO

01 Moving Average for HDFC Bank Ltd 38

02 ROC Line for HDFC Bank Ltd 39


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03 Exponential Moving Average for HDFC Bank Ltd 40

04 RSI Line for HDFC Bank Ltd 44

05 Stochastics for HDFC Bank Ltd 47

06 MACD FOR HDFC Bank Ltd 5007 Moving Average for Bharti Airtel Ltd 53

08 Exponential Moving Average for Bharti Airtel Ltd 54

09 ROC Line for Bharti Airtel Ltd 55

10 RSI Line for Bharti Airtel Ltd 59

11 Stochastics for Bharti Airtel Ltd 62

12 MACD for Bharti Airtel Ltd 65

13 Moving Average for ONGC 6814 Exponential Moving Average for ONGC 69

15 ROC Line for ONGC 70

16 RSI Line for ONGC 74

17 Stochastics for ONGC 77

18 MACD for ONGC 80

19 Moving Average for Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd 83

20 Exponential Moving Average for Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd 86

21 ROC Line for Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd 85

22 RSI Line for Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd 89

23 Stochastics for Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd 92

24 MACD for Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd 95

25 Moving Average for DLF Ltd 98

28 Exponential Moving Average for DLF Ltd 99

27 ROC Line for DLF Ltd 100

28 RSI Line for DLF Ltd 104

29 Stochastics for DLF Ltd 107

30 MACD for DLF Ltd 110


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AN ANALYTICAL STUDY ON THE PERFORMANCE OF

SELECTED EQUITIES IN NSE WITH REFERENCE TO

SHAREKHAN LTD

Abstract

One of the greatest difficulties facing a stock trader or investment manager is the

stock selection process. In this process, the investor is faced with a large number of

competing investments, and a fixed amount of capital. The goal is to spread the

available capital across a reduced subset of the competing investments, with the aim

of increasing the return. Typically, the investor relies on one of two main frameworks

to guide the selection process, namely Fundamental Analysis, and Technical Analysis.This paper focuses on Technical Analysis, and implements a neural network which

supports the stock selection process.

INTRODUCTION

1.1 INTRODUCTION

The Indian stock market is large and vibrant. It is also rumor and insider driven. The

average investor does little or no research and makes his purchase, sales decision on

the strength of an article that he may have read. This happens as an average investor isnot clear as to how to analyze the companies and not equipped to arrive at an
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investment decision. Consequently he buys and sells with inadequate information and

often suffers needless losses. It is for those who are prepared to study and analyze

companies and make Judgment whether to buy or sell the particular stocks.

Information is essential in making accurate judgment.

The primary objective of guiding investors with investment decisions relating to buyor hold or sell the shares in the near future. The approaches used in analyzing the

movement of share Prices by technical approach. The objective of buying at a lower

price and selling at a higher price to get a good return on investment. However, there

is a vast difference between -the material studies and basis of analysis.

A technical analyst is concerned with the direction of movement. He would be buying

if he sees that the main trend is rising and would be moving out of the scrip as and

when he finds that the scrip is reversing direction. His approach is based on the

analysis of the demand- supply equation. If the demand for scrip is greater than its

supply the prices would be expected to rise, prompting the analyst to buy. On the

Same count, if the supply of scrip exceeds its demand, the prices would be expectedto move downwards and he would exit from the scrip or book profits.

A method of evaluating securities by analyzing statistics generated by market activity,

such as past prices and volume. Technical analyses do not attempt to measure a

Securitys intrinsic value, but instead use charts and other tools to identify patterns

that can suggest future activity. Technical analysts believe that the historical

performance of Stocks and markets are indications of future performance. Technical

analysis is done with the tools like Relative Strength Index, Rate of change,, moving

average convergence and divergence. Based on the trend, the investment guidance is

given whether to go for long or short or hold the stocks.

2. STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

The average investor does little or no research and makes his purchase, sales decision

on the strength of an article that he may have read. This happens as an average

investor is not clear as to how to analyze the companies and not equipped to arrive at

an investment decision. Consequently he buys and sells with inadequate information

and often suffers needless losses. It is for those who are prepared to study and analyze

companies and make Judgment whether to buy or sell the particular stocks.

Information is essential in making accurate judgment.

1.3 INDUSTRY PROFILE

The Brokerage Industry

The stock-broking business has undergone a sea change over the last decade. The

three main factors behind the changes in the stock-broking business are:

First, the shift from floor-based to screen-based trading in 1994. This brought

transparency into trade execution and raised the confidence of investors. The result

has been lower transaction charges and increased convenience. This has helped both

the investors and the brokers.


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The second change was dematerialization. Dematerialisation is a process of

converting physical share certificates into electronic shares. This saves time and

money.

The introduction of futures and options was the third major factor that has changed

the face of the stock-broking business as it is a new avenue for revenue.

In actuality the brokerage industry continues to develop rapidly. Many of the

traditional restrictions against banking activities within the brokerage industry are

being eliminated and the barriers are disappearing. Due to this, some commercial

banks have as subsidiaries, brokerage houses that offer discounts and some of them

have available accounts that offer all of the services that are offered by a checking

account.

The basic function of a brokerage firm is to execute buy and sell orders for clients.

Traditionally these firms have offered the investigation of the quality and the

possibilities of investing in a variety of investment products. It is still accustomed forbrokerage firms to offer information about possible investments free of charge. This

activity of bringing free of charge stock investment report is one of the main tools that

are utilized by brokerage houses to compete against other firms and to investors it

continues to be an important service.

Despite the previously, not all investors consider that investment reports is an

important service. Some investors prefer other types of services since many investors

dont believe that these investment reports are useful. In order to capture this vast

diverse clientele, the brokerage industry has segmented itself. After the restrictions in

commissions were eliminated, several brokerages began to open up their doors as

discount brokerage firms. In actuality, brokerage firms may be classified into full

service brokers and discount brokers.

Full service brokerage firms continue to offer informative stock reports and a level of

service much higher than other brokerage houses. Discount brokerage houses only

dedicate themselves to execute orders for clients. Full service brokers are sellers

looking for purchasing and selling for clients and offering more customer service than

is available from discount brokers. It is many times possible that a client will not even

know who is taking care of the buy or sell order that they placed.

These differences in services and philosophies may lead to great differences incommission costs. It is evident that these differences may be an important factor in

the return of an investment. This is particularly true when we see that these

commissions are added to the purchase as well as to the sale of a stock or other

investments.

History

Philadelphia was the centre of American finance during the first forty years of the

new United States. In 1790, the country's first stock exchange was founded there and

Chestnut Street was home to the nation's most powerful financial institutions.

However, in the 1820s a shift to New York City began and for more than one hundredand fifty years Wall Street has been synonymous with the stock brokerage business.


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Some sources suggest that historical top-level brokers and a number of other firms

rose to prominence over that time, with the top-ranked brokerages in the early 1950s

being

1. Merrill Lynch

2. Paine Webber & Company

3. Morgan Stanley

4. Goldman Sachs

5. Bear Stearns

Since the 1980s stock broking firms have also been allowed to be market makers as

long as the appropriate Chinese walls are put in place.

With the advent of automated stock broking systems on the Internet the client often

has no personal contact with his/her stock broking firm. The stockbroker's system

performs all the stock broking functions: it obtains the best price from the market,

executes and settles the trade.

Discount brokers have taken a large share of the business by offering highly

discounted commissions. Discount brokers may offer limited advisory services, but

their primary focus tends to be servicing self directed retail accounts.

Origin of stock broking in India

The origin of stock broking in India goes back to a time, when shares, debentures and

bonds representing title to property were first issued on the condition of transfer from

one person to another. The earliest record of dealings in securities in India is the East

India Companys loan securities.

The advent of the companies Act 1850 and subsequent introduction of the principle of

limited liability, made investments in stocks and shares popular.Though stock broking

was practiced in Calcutta as early as 1836, the members of the broking profession had

neither any code of conduct for their guidance, nor any permanent place for

congregation.

The stock brokers obviously, significant role in the stock market. Stock broker means

a member of a recognized stock exchange who deals in securities. Until 1988, stock

exchanges were more or less self-regulatory organizations. Their regulations covered

the entire gamut of operations of stockbrokers. However, they had not been

discharging their self-regulatory role well, resulting into malpractices in trading,

settlement and transfer of securities. Ever since the Securities and Exchange Board of

India (SEBI) assumed the monitoring function of brokers, stock broking is emerging

as a professional service in tune with the requirements of mature and sophisticated

stock exchanges in the country, replacing its traditional closed character as inherited

family business. To act as a broker, certificate of registration from the SEBI ismandatory. It is empowered to impose conditions while granting the certificate that as


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a member of a stock exchange he has to abide its rules, regulations and bye-laws, pay

the prescribed fee and take adequate steps for the redressal of investors grievances

within one month of the receipt of the complaint and keep the SEBI informed about

the number, nature and other particular of such complaints.

Similar roles

Roles similar to that of a stock broker include investment advisor, and financial

advisor. A stockbroker may or may not be also an investment advisor, and vice versa.

Acting as a principal

Stockbrokers also sometimes or exclusively trade on their own behalf, as a principal,

speculating that a share or other financial instrument will increase or decline in price.

In such cases the term broker makes little sense and the individuals or firms trading in

principal capacity sometimes call themselves dealers, stock traders or simply traders.

[A stock broker is just the main part of being a City Trader. Other types of CityTrading include working in the Foreign Exchange.

Depository Participant

A Depository Participant (DP) is described as an agent of the depository. They are the

intermediaries between the depository and the investors. The relationship between the

DPs and the depository is governed by an agreement made between the two under the

Depositories Act. In a strictly legal sense, a DP is an entity who is registered as such

with SEBI under the provisions of the SEBI Act. As per the provisions of this Act, a

DP can offer depository-related services only after obtaining a certificate ofregistration from SEBI.

SEBI (D&P) Regulations, 1996 prescribe a minimum net worth of Rs. 50 lakh for

stockbrokers, R&T agents and non-banking finance companies (NBFC), for granting

them a certificate of registration to act as DPs. If a stockbroker seeks to act as a DP in

more than one depository, he should comply with the specified net worth criterion

separately for each such depository. No minimum net worth criterion has been

prescribed for other categories of DPs. However, depositories can fix a higher net

worth criterion for their DPs. NSDL requires a minimum net worth of Rs. 100 lakh to

be eligible to become a DP as against Rs. 50 lakh prescribed by SEBI (D&P)

Regulations.

stock broker

Investor requires a Stock Broker to buy and sell shares in stock exchanges (BSE, NSE

etc.). Stock Broker is registered member of stock exchange. A stock broker can

register to one or more stock exchanges.

Only stock brokers can directly buy and sell shares in Stock Market. An investor must

contact a stock broker to trade stocks. Broker charge commissions (brokerages) for

their service. Brokerage is usually a percent of total amount of trade and varies from

broker to broker.


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A stock broker is a person or a firm that trades on its clients behalf, the customer tell

the broker what they want to invest in and they will issue the buy or sell order. Some

stock brokers also give out financial advice.It wasnt too long ago and investing was

very expensive because the customer had to go through a full service broker which

would give them advice on what to do and would charge them a hefty fee for it. Now

there are a plethora of discount stock brokers.

STOCK BROKING SERVICES

A transaction on a stock exchange must be made between two members of the

exchange a ordinary person may not walk into the Bombay Stock Exchange (for

example), and ask to trade stock. Such an exchange must be done through a broker.

There are three types of stock broking service.

Execution-only, which means that the broker will only carry out the client's

instructions to buy or sell. Advisory dealing, where the broker advises the client on which shares to buy

and sell, but leaves the final decision to the investor.

Discretionary dealing, where the stockbroker ascertains the client's investment

objectives and then makes all dealing decisions on the client's behalf.

In addition to actually trading stocks for their clients, stock brokers may also

offer advice to their clients on which stocks, mutual funds, etc. to buy.

VARIOUS STOCK BROKING COMPANIES IN INDIA

1. ICICIDirect

2. ShareKhan

3. Indiabulls

4. 5Paisa

5. Motilal Oswal Securities

6. HDFC Securities

7. Reliance Money

8. IDBIPaisaBuilder

9. Religare

10. Geojit

11. Networth Stock Broking Limited (NSBL)12. Kotak Securities.

1.4 COMPANY PROFILE


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SHAREKHAN LTD

EIGHT DECADES OF BROKERAGE EXCELLENCE

Sharekhan is leading India-based financial services group, part ofCiti Financial Ltd

that offers Institutional Equities and Investment Banking services. Sharekhan dealsonline trading with products like equities, derivatives, mutual funds and portfolio

management. Sharekhans online trading and investment site

www.sharekhan.comwas launched in 2000. Sharekhans ground network includes

over Sharekhan has over 1288 branches in 325 cities and about eight lakh trading

members. Sharekhan has won the prestigious Consumer Vote Awards 2005 for the

Most Preferred Stock Broking Brand in India, in the Investment Advisors category.

Name of the company was changed from SSKI Investor Services Private Limited to

Sharekhan Private Limited on 4th October 2005.

Sharekhan has won the prestigious Awaaz Consumer Vote Awards 2005 for the

Most Preferred Stock Broking Brand in India, in the Investment Advisors category.

VISION

To empower the investor with quality advice and superior service to help him take

better investment decisions. We believe that our growth depends on client

satisfaction.

MISSION

To provide the best customer service and product innovation tuned to diverseneeds of clientele

Continuous up-gradation with changing technology, while maintaining human

values.

Respond to progressive globalization and achieving international standard.

Efficiency and effectiveness built on ethical practices.

CORE VALUE

Customer satisfaction through

Providing quality service effectively and efficiently

Smile, it enhances your face value is a service quality stressed

on periodic customer service Audits

Maximization of stakeholder value Success through Teamwork,

integrity and People

History, present business and background of the Sharekhan
http://www.sharekhan.com/http://www.sharekhan.com/http://www.sharekhan.com/


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Sharekhan Limited was promoted by Mr. Shripal S Moakhia and Mr. Shreyas S

Morakhia. It was established in 1999-2000. It is currently amongst India's largest

broking house. It is a member of the Stock Exchange, Mumbai. It is a depository

participant of the National Securities Depository Limited and Central Depository

Services (India) Limited. Its business includes stock broking, depository services,

portfolio management and derivatives.

The Company's core specialty lies in its retail distribution with a large network of

branches and sub-brokers/ authorized persons. Its strength lies in its investment

research capabilities. Its research division has several analysts continuously

monitoring global, national and regional political, economic and social situations so

as to assess their impact on the economy in general, the sectors and companies they

research which helps them in offering quality research and advice to clients.

Presently Citigroup is holding 75% and IDFC 12% of the paid up equity capital of

the Companyand the Employees own the rest i.e 13%

Promoters

The shareholders of Sharekhan Limited are Mr. Shripal Morakhia, Mr.Shreyas

Morakhia, Kalpana Morakhia, Foreign Private Equity Funds and key employees of

the company. The key promoter of the Company is Mr. Shripal Morakhia who as on

September 30, 2006 along with his family owns 43.58% (on non-diluted basis) of the

paid up equity capital of the Company. Company has also issued options to

employees under ESOP 2005.Apart from Sharekhan, the SSKI Group also comprises

of Institutional broking and Corporate Finance. The institutional broking division

caters to domestic and foreign institutional investors, while the Corporate Finance

Division Focuses on niche areas such as infrastructure, telecom and media. SSKI has

been voted as the Top Domestic Brokerage House in the research category, twice by

Euro money survey and four times by Asia money Survey.

FEATURES OF SHAREKHAN LTD:

Multiple exchanges on a single screen

Intra-day calls and flash news

Historical charts with technical tools

Streaming quotes

24x7 web enabled back office Auto pay-in of shares

Online transfer of funds

E-broking facility is one such effort, which gives you access to state-of-the-art trading

platform with multiple exchanges, order and trade confirmations, research reports, e-

contracts and a 24x7 on-line web enabled centralized back-office system at the click

of a button.


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SERVICES OF SHAREKHAN

Source:www.sharekhan.com

ACCESS via MULTIPLE channels

Source:www.sharekh an.com

Customized Research Reports

Investment advice for a diverse set of investment approaches
http://www.sharekhan.com/http://www.sharekhan.com/http://an.com/http://an.com/http://www.sharekhan.com/http://an.com/


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Source:www.sharekhan.com

ORGANIZATION CHART

1.5 PRODUCT PROFILE

PRODUCTS OF THE SHAREKHAN COMPANY

Other Services:

Dial-n-Trade

Depository Services

Commodity Trading

Derivative Trading

Mutual fund

Portfolio Management Services

Online IPO
http://www.sharekhan.com/http://www.sharekhan.com/


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Research Based Information Provided

OFFLINE

Offline A/c is the A/c for the investors who are not familiar with the use of

computer. The A/C opening charges Rs.500(One time)

For 1st Year Demat A/C is Free,On 2nd Year AMC charge is applicable

ONLINE

A/C Opening Charges Rs.750 (onetime Charge).

For 1st Year Demat A/C is Free, On 2nd Year AMC charge is applicable.

Tie up with 7 banks through which one can transfer or withdraw his fund

online. Which are as follows

HDFC Bank

IDBI Bank

UTI Bank

OBC Bank

CITY Bank

Indusind Bank

Union Bank of India

Any one who have A/C either of above banks they can use this facility.

Otherwise one has to make fund transfer or withdraw by cheque.

This account enables you to buy and sell shares through our website. You get

features like

Streaming quotes (using the applet based system).

Integrated Banking, demat and digital contracts.

Instant credit and transfer.

Real-time portfolio tracking with price alert and, of course, the assurance of

secure transactions. Monthly charges Rs.500/-(But if Client give Brokerage of Rs.1500/-in a

Quarter, then Rs.1500/-that was charged of a Quarter will be Reimbursed).

For 1st Year Demat A/C is Free, On 2nd Year AMC charge is applicable.

TYPES OF TRADERS/INVESTORS IN THE STOCK MARKET

INVESTORS: Those who expect minimum 30-40% appreciation and are willing to

hold between two months to a few years. They enter only long positions and usually

select scrip based on fundamental analysis. Medium-long term investors can utilize

technical analysis to time their entry and profit booking better.


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DAY TRADERS: Day traders enter long/short traders to square up the same day.

They usually base decisions on technical, information or at times, gut feel.

SHORT-TERM TRADERS : Short-term traders expect 5-20% returns within 2 days

to 3 weeks. They enter long as well as short positions. These include: Position

trading, where one either buys a stock and holds for the required appreciation, or sellsfrom an existing long (or borrowed) position to cover at a lower level.

The popularity of Short-term trading is on the rise due to the following reasons:

It provides an opportunity to make substantial profits in a short period and

ensures continuous rotation ofcapital.

As against long-term investment, short-term trading has limited downside

because of strict stop losses.

One can leverage on margin in case of short-term trading in futures.

Short-term trading in options requires smaller investment and has limited risk.

1.6 Need and Scope for the Study

The unique nature of capital market instruments forces the investors to depend

strongly on the Fundamental or Technical analysis to guide them in their investment

decisions. The technical analysis is aimed at examining the price & volume

movements of each stock.

It is essential that no investor can buy or sell shares on a whim. It requires a serious

research as lot of funds are involved in the investment. The investors can be guidedwith regard to investment decisions of specific stocks to buy or sell.

As more People are investing money in stock market, this study will be very useful to

me in my future too. I will be able to recommend the buy calls or sell calls to

investors/traders on any sectors by using all the technical indicators carefully.

1.7 OBJECTIVES

1. To study the movement and behavior of the market.

2. To study the movement of individual scrip price.

3. To study in general about technical analysis in stock market.4. To study about the trends (forward /reversal) in stock market.

5. To identify when to buy or sell the shares.

6. To identifying gauge the overbought and oversold positions in a scrip.

1.8 Research Methodology

1.8.1 RESEARCH PROBLEM

In this research work, the main purpose is to analyze the Indian stock price movement

and behavior using technical analysis.

1.8.2 SOURCES OF DATA:


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The study was done using the secondary data. The secondary data was collected from

Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and National Stock Exchange (NSE).

The data for stock price and volume are published by SEBI and NSE.

1.8.3 RESEARCH DESIGN:

The framework within which the study is based is Analytical in nature.

Type of study : Analytical Research

Data Collection : Open, close, high and low price of each company for three

months www.nseindia.com.

1.8.4 TOOLS & TECHNIQUES

1. Moving Averages

2. Exponential Simple Moving Average

3. Rate of Change (ROC)

4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

5. Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD)

6. Stochastics

1.8.5 Sample Size

Data for analysis I have chosen randomly 5 companies listed in NATIONAL STOCK

EXCHANGE OF 5 different equities of different sectors to study the technical

analysis. I have chosen these companies on the basis of volume of trade.

The five companies are:

HDFC Bank- Banking sector

ONGC Oil and gas sector

DLFConstruction sector

Ranbaxy-Pharma

Bharti Airtel Ltd-Telecom

1.9 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

1. Biased answers are unavoidable.

2. All the companies listed in BSE & NSE was not studied due to time

constraint, the study was restricted to major companies in selected

equities in different sector.
http://www.nseindia.com/http://www.nseindia.com/


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3. As the share price movements changes from time to time, the

prediction of trend will also change.

2.1 THEORETICAL BACKGROUND

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical analysis is research of market dynamics that is done mainly with the help of

charts and with the purpose of forecasting future price development. Technical

analysis several approaches to the study of price movement which are interconnected

in the framework of one harmonious theory. This type of analysis studies the price

movement on the market by means of analyzing three market factors: price, volumes,

and, in case of future contracts market, of an open interest (number of open

positions). Of these the primary one for technical analysis is the prices, while the

alterations in other factors are studies mainly in order to confirm the correctness of the

identified price trend. This technical theory, just like any theory, has its core

postulates.

ASSUMPTIONS

The basic assumptions made in analyzing the share through the technical analysis

route should be understood to grasp the subject in a proper perspective.

The market discounts everything

The first assumption is that the market discounts everything. This assumption

signifies that the price at which the security is quoted represents the hopes, fear, insideinformation, muscle power et al of the participants. The financial analyst may be

buying on the hope that the script will rise to represent its true worth (on the

assumption that it is under-priced). The company circle may be buying on the basis

of inside information or to support the prices, bear operators may be converting their

short sales on the fear of a further loss and so on. All these factors are reflected in the

price at which the scrip changes hands on the trading floor. The buyers create the

demand for the scrip and the sellers create the supply of it. Whatever reasons prompt

the buyer to buy and seller to sell get represented or discounted in the price that the

buyer pays for the scrip and the seller gets for it.

The market moves in trend

The second important assumption is that the market moves in trends, and the trend

when established has a tendency to continue further in time and then reverses at some

point of time. To put it differently, the market movement is orderly and not random.

This is the basic assumption without which analyzing share price movement would be

meaningless.

History keeps repeating itself

The third assumption is that history repeats itself over again. This assumption arises

from the fact the human psychology does not changes. In a bull market, the masspsychology that drives the prices upwards will be seen over and over again in other


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bull markets. On the same count, the mass psychology seen during a bear market will

repeat itself in every successive bear market. To put this assumption differently, it

can be stated that the mistakes made by the traders on the market will be repeated

again and again.

TRENDLINES

Trend lines are straight lines draws by connecting either the tops or the bottoms. To

draw a straight line, one requires two points. Similarly to draw trend lines, one

requires at least two tops or bottoms. This, however, does not mean that there cannot

be more than two tops or bottoms that can be connected to draw a trend line. In fact,

the more the number of tops or bottoms that are touched or connected by the trend

line, the better or more powerful the trend line. Trend lines are the simplest, yet the

most effective way of riding the trend.

TYPES OF TRENDLINE

RISING TRENDLINE

The rising trend line would represent a rising trend and is drawn by connecting

the rising bottoms.

FALLING TRENDLINE

The falling trend line represents the falling trend and is `draw by connecting the

falling tops.

HORIZONTAL TRENDLINE

The horizontal trend line on the other hand is a flat trend line. That represents the

flat trend and is drawn by either Connecting the even tops or even bottoms posted by

the scrip.

DOW THEORY

Three Movements

Nothing is more certain than that the market has three well defined

Movements which fit into each other:.

The first is the daily variation due to local causes and the balances of buying

and selling at that particular time (Ripple).

The secondary movement covers a period ranging from days to weeks,

averaging probably between six to eight weeks (Wave).


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The third move is the great swing covering anything forms months to years,

averaging between 6 to 48 months. (Tide).

Primary trends

Bull market

Secondary reactions

Bull markets

Bull markets commence with reviving confidence as business conditions

improve.

Price rise as the market responds to improved earnings

Rampant speculation dominates the market and price advances are based on

hopes and expectations rather than actual results.

Bear markets

Bear markets start with abandonment of the hopes and expectations that

sustained inflated prices. Prices decline in response to disappointing earnings.

Distress selling follows as speculators attempt to close out their positions and

securities are sold without regard to their true value.

Ranging Markets

A secondary reaction may take the form of a line which may endure for

several weeks.

Price fluctuates within a narrow range of about five per cent.

Lare Corretions: Start and End of Trends

Start of bull

trend

(Dreak above previous high)


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Start of bear trend

(Break below previous low)

CHARTS

A price chart is a sequence of prices plotted over a specific time frame. In statistical

terms, charts are referred to as time series plots. Technicians, technical analysis and

chartists use charts to analyze a wide array of securities and forecast future price

movements.

Bar Chart

The most popular charting method is the bar chart. The high, low and close are

required to form the price plot for each period of a bar chart. The high and low arerepresented by the top and bottom of the vertical bar and the close is the short

horizontal line crossing the vertical bar. On a daily chart, each bar represents the

high, low and close for a particular day. Bar charts can also be displayed using the

open, high, low and close. The only difference is the addition of the open price,

which is displayed as a short horizontal line extending to the left of the bar.

Line Chart

Some investors and traders consider the closing level to be more important than the

open, high or low. By paying attention to only the close, intraday swings can beignored. Line charts are also used when open; high and low data points are not

available. Sometimes only closing data are available for certain indices, thinly traded

stocks and intraday prices.

Candlestick Chart

Originating in Japan over 300 years ago, candlestick charts have become quite

popular in recent years. For a candlestick chart, the open, high, low and close are all

required. A daily candlestick is based on the open price, the intraday high and low,

and the close.

Many traders and investors believe that candlestick charts are easy to read, especially

the relationship between the open and the close. White candlesticks form when the

close is higher than the open and black candlesticks form when the close is lower that

the open. The white and black portion formed from the open and close is called the

body. The lines above and below are called shadows and represent the high and low.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS

Technical indicators are any class of metrics value is derived from generic price

activity in a stock or asset. Technical indicators look to predict the future price levels,

or simply the general price direction, of a security by looking at past patterns.


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Examples of common technical indicators include Relative strength index, stochastic,

MACD, Moving averages, exponential moving average.

Technical indicators, collectively, are distinguished by the fact that they do not

analyze any part of the fundamental business like earnings, revenue and profit

Margins. Technical indicators are used most extensively by active traders in themarket, as they are designed primarily indicators are of little value, as they do nothing

to shed light on the underlying business. The most effective uses of technicals for a

long term Investor are to help identify good entry points for the stock by analyzing

the long-term trends.

OSCILLATORS

Oscillators are group of countertrend, momentum based indicators that move above

and below a horizontal axis that represents neutral market momentum. These

indicators offer an alternative to trend following strategies and work well in non-

trending, sideways markets Where a clear trend is not evident.

INTERPRETATION OF OSCILLATTORS

-They can be used as an indicator of market extremes by showing overbought and

oversold Areas. Oscillators are often used as short term counter trend reversal

indicators- they help to determine when a market is in an overbought or oversold

condition. When the oscillator reaches an upper extreme, the market is considered

oversold.

They can indicate when a trend is losing momentum. Increasing momentum reflects apowerful price trend, while weakening suggests a possible trend reversal. Momentum

oscillators are designed to identify these reversal points and used in both long and

short term timeframes. Most oscillators indicators look very similar they area

plotted along the bottom of a price Chart, with their peaks and troughs following

those of the price chart. Some oscillators have a midpoint orzero line.

Generally speaking, when the oscillator has reached an extreme value in the upper or

lower end of the band, this suggests that a price reversal is becoming more likely.

The crossing of the midpoint level or zero line is normally interpreted as a buy or sell

signal in the direction of the trend.

Divergence between the oscillator and price is a price is a warning of a possible

reversal. This is the strongest and most important of all the signals provided by the

oscillators.

Oscillators are best used in a trending market to gauge when the market is

oversold in an uptrend for a buy entry and overbought in a downtrend for a sell

entry.

The family of technical indicators known as oscillators includes: RELATIVE

STRENGTH INDEX (RSI), STOCHASTICS, Commodity Channel Index (CCI),Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Rate of change (ROC).


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Moving Averages

The market does not rise or fall in a straight line. The up moves and down moves are

interrupted by counter moves. Quite often, these counter moves are quite volatile

making it difficult for the analyst to gauge the underlying trend of the market. In such

situations, one way to gauge the underlying trend is to smooth the data which can bedone with the help of moving averages.

There are three types of moving averages that are commonly used by the Analyst

1. Simple Moving Average

2. Exponential Moving Average

3. Weighted Moving Average

The word moving means that the body of data moves ahead to include the recent

observation. If it is five day moving average, on the sixth day the body of data moves

to include the sixth day observation eliminating the first days observation. Likewiseit continues. In the moving average calculation closing prices is used.

The moving averages are used to study the movement of the market as well as

individual scrip price. The moving average indicates the underlying trend in the

scrip. The period of average determines the period of the trend is that being

identified. For identifying short-term trend, 10 day to 30day moving averages are

used. In the case of medium trend 50 day to 125 days are adopted. 200 day moving

average is used to identifying long term trend.

Simple Moving average

To calculate a five day average, one has to add the five days closings prices and

divide the total by five. The result obtained is a five day simple moving average. On

the sixth day, the closing price of the first day will be deducted from the total of the

previous five days and the sixth days closing prioce will be added. Again the new

total has to be divided by five to get thwe five day simple moving average on the sixth

day. This process is continued further as one progresses ahead in time.

Formula :

Moving average = sum of n numbers of days price / n no. of days

Exponential Moving Average

The exponential moving average gives the recent prices an equal weighting to the

historic ones. The calculation does not refer to a fixed period, but rather takes all

available data series into account. This is achieved by subtracting yesterdays

Exponential Moving Average from todays price. Adding this result to yesterdays

Exponential Moving Average, results in todays moving average. The initial EMA is

based on a Simple Moving Average.

An Exponential Moving Average is another type of moving Average. In a simpleMoving Average, the price data have an equal weight in the computation of the


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average. Also, in a Simple Moving Average, the oldest price data are removed from

the Moving Average as a new price is added to the computation. The Exponential

Moving Average assigns a weight to the price data as a average is calculated. Thus,

the oldest price data in the Exponential Moving Average are never removed, but they

have only a minimal impact on the moving average. The main use of this study is its

smoothing out function. In this way, the moving average removes short termflexuations and leaves to view the prevailing trend.

The Exponential Moving Average can be used as a crossover system. For a

crossover system, you may insert three different Exponential Moving Average.

Generally, the lengths for this Moving Average are short, intermediate and long term.

A buy signal occurs when the short and intermediate term averages cross from below

to above the longer term average. Conversely, a sell signal is issued when the short

and intermediate term averages from above to below the longer term average.

Another trading approach is to use the current price concept. If the current price is

above the Exponential Moving Average, you buy liquidate that position when acurrent price crosses below either moving average. For a short position, sell when the

current price is below the Exponential Moving Average. Liquidate that position when

a current price rises above the Exponential Moving Average.

Calculation

Formula 1.

EMA n-1 2/ (n+1) * (Pn-EMAn-1))

EMA n-1 - Previous EMA value

Pn - Todays close price

Formula 2.

EMA (n) = (Price Today) x K + (EMA Yesterday) x (1-K)

N = Time Range (e.g . . . 10 days)

K= 2 / (n+1)

RATE OF CHANGE

The Rate of Change indicator or the ROC, as it is popularly known, is an oscillator

that measures the rate of change between the current price and the price n number

of days in the past. This oscillator is by far the most widely used indicator to gauge

the overbought and oversold positions in a scrip. It is also quite useful in identifying

trend reversal.

In calculating this oscillator, only the closing prices are generally used. Thus, if one

wants to calculate the daily ROC, one has to use the daily closing prices and forcalculating the weekly ROC, the weekly closing prices are used and so on. The most


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popular time period for calculating the ROC is the 12-day or the 12week or 12

month period.

There are two broad methods of calculating this oscillator.

First method

Take the current closing price and express this price as a percentage of the price

twelve days/weeks in the past. Suppose the price on any day is Rs. 12 and the price

twelve days ago was Rs. 10, the ROC will be obtained by using the

equation:12/10*100 = 120%.

Ist method for calculating ROC =

Second Method

In this method, the percentage variation between the current price and the price twelvedays in the past is calculated. Thus, in our example. The 12 day rate of change will

calculated by the equation:

12/10*100-100 = 20%. It may be noted that while calculating the ROC by the this

method, one will arrive at positive and negative values for ROC.

IInd method for calculating ROC = 100

RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX (RSI)

Timing is crucial in investment management. Here, the Relative Strength Index

popularly known as RSI helps. RSI was developed by Wells Wilder. It is an oscillator

used to identifying the inherent technical strength or weakness in a particular scrip.

Before going further, it needs to be clarified that his oscillator should not be confused

with the RSC indicator. The RSC or the relative strength comparative is the ratio of

two prices different scrips and the RSI is calculated for a particular scrip by using the

following formula.

RSI = 100 (100/1+RS)

Where, RS =

The average gain or loss per day is, in turn, arrived at by adding up the gains or losses

per day, calculated by comparing the closing price on a day with that of the preceding

day, ( mind you, gain and losses have to be added separately And not merged) and

then dividing the total of gains or losses by the period for which RSI is calculated.

The RSI can be calculated for any number of days depending on the fancy of the

technical analyst and the time frame of trading. The most commonly used time period

is the 14day RSI. However, it some analyst use 5-day RSI, 7-day RSI or even a 9-day

RSI for quick trading. In general, it can be stated that the greater the time period, the

lower would be the volume of whipsaws (incorrect signals). On the other hand, when

the period is shorter, signals are generated earlier, though with a weekly or monthly


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basis or monthly basis. For calculating the daily RSI, the daily closing prices are

monthly RSI, one has to use the monthly closing prices.

MOVING AVERAGE CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE (MACD)

The Moving Average convergence and divergence (MACD), as the name suggests,measures the convergence and divergence between two exponential moving averages.

Or put simply, it is the difference between two moving averages. In the system, two

moving averages of varying periods are calculating with the helping of the closing

price data. Of the two, one is the short term moving average and the other is the

longer-term moving average.

The MACD would represent the absolute difference between the short-term moving

average and the long-term moving average. This difference is plotted on the y-axis

and x-axis would represent the days. If one wants to calculate the weekly MACD,

one would obviously have to consider the weekly averages (based on weekly closing

prices).

There are two popular combinations of averages, the first one is the 12-day and 26-

day exponential averages and the second one the 12-day and 48-day exponential

averages. Now, another is generally superimposed over this graph. Here, for the

combination of the 12 and 26-day exponential averages, the of s 9-day exponential

average is quite popular and in the 12-day and 48-day exponential average

combination, the use of a simple 10-day average is quite popular.

The average that is superimposed is calculated with the help of the MACD data i.e. it

is the average of the MACD date. The MACD line is so constructed that it oscillates

across the zero line. It may be noted that we have given the popular averages that

used, but readers are advised to use various combinations to arrive at the best suited to

their system of trading.

STOCHASTICS

The Stochastics process developed by George Lane is an important tool for taking

short-term positions in the market. If the share price analysis is confirmed by the

Stochastics indicators, one may trade with confidence. However, if the share price

analysis and the Stochastics indicator are at variance, one should remain on the

sidelines till indicator agrees with the share price analysis. This is not an indicatorthat should be used as an excuse to trend but on the contrary, it should be used

identify trading opportunities along the trend.

Stochastics oscillator is generally observed that as the prices of stock increase, the

closing prices tend to be nearer to the upper end of the price range. AS prices fall, the

closing prices tend to be nearer to the lower end of the price range. Based on this

observation George Lane (former president of investment Educators, Inc.)Formulated

the Stochastics process.

In the Stochastics process. There are two lines -%K and %D. The %K line is the4

faster of two and the %D line is the slower one. Based on the method of construction,the %D line will always lag behind %K line. Also, %K and %D would take values


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between Zero and 100. In other words, both the lines would oscillate between zero

and 100.

The general time frame used for the calculation of stochastics is

5days/weeks/months. However, there are analysts who use other time frames to suit

their system of share trading. Reader are advised to experiment with different timeframes and arrive at the best suited to their method of trading. We shall explain the

construction of Stochastics for a time period of five days.

The formula used for construction of %K line is

%K = 100 {(c-L5)/(H5-L5)}

Here, C = Latest closing price

L5 = lowest price touched by the scrip during the last five days.

H5 = the highest price touched by the scrip during the last five days.

The formula used for the construction of %D line is

%D = 100 x (H3/L3)

Here, H3 = three day sum of (C - L5)

L3 = three day sum of (H5 L5)

There are two parameters for stochastic:

1. The number of periods over which the raw stochastic is calculated.

Usually 14, 9, or 20.

2. The smoothing factor for the calculation of percent K and percent D.

Usually 3, 5, or 6.

There are several ways to interpret Stochastic Indicators. Three popular

methods include:

Buy when the %k or %d falls below a specific level (usually 20 or 30%) and thenrises above that level. Sell when either %k or %d rises above a specific level (usually

70 or 80%) and then falls below that level.

Buy when the %k line rises above the %d line and sell when the %k line falls below

the %d line. Readings below 20 are considered oversold and readings above 80 are

considered overbought. However, Lane did not believe that a reading above 80 was

necessarily bearish or a reading below 20 bullish. A security can continue to rise after

the Stochastic Oscillator has reached 80 and continue to fall after the Stochastic

Oscillator has reached 20. One of the most reliable signals is to wait for a divergence

to develop from overbought or oversold levels. Once the oscillator reaches

overbought levels, wait for a negative divergence to develop and then a cross below80. This usually requires a double dip below 80 and the second dip results in the sell


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signal. For a buy signal, wait for a positive divergence to develop after the indicator

moves below 20. Stochastic should be used in conjunction with other aspects or

technical analysis as well as other non-momentum based indicators.

2.2 Review Of literature

Brown and Jennings (1989) showed that technical analysis has value in a model in

which prices are not fully revealing and traders have rational conjectures about the

relation between prices and signals. Frankel and Froot (1990) showed evidence for the

rising importance of chartists. Neftci (1991) showed that a few of the rules used in

technical analysis generate well-defined techniques of forecasting, but even well-

defined rules were shown to be useless in prediction if the economic time series is

Gaussian. However, if the processes under consideration are non-linear, then the rules

might capture some information. Tests showed that this may indeed be the case for

the moving average rule.

Taylor and Allen (1992) report the results of a survey among chief foreign exchange

dealers based in London in November 1988 and found that at least 90 per cent of

respondents placed some weight on technical analysis, and that there was a skew

towards using technical, rather than fundamental, analysis at shorter time horizons.

In a comprehensive and influential study Brock, Lakonishok and LeBaron (1992)

analysed 26 technical trading rules using 90 years of daily stock prices from the Dow

Jones Industrial Average up to 1987 and found that they all outperformed the market.

Blume, Easley and OHara (1994) show that volume provides information on

information quality that cannot be deduced from the price. They also show that traders

who use information contained in market statistics do better than traders who do not.

Neely (1997) explains and reviews technical analysis in the foreign exchange

market.Neely, Weller and Dittmar (1997) use genetic programming to find technical

trading rules in foreign exchange markets. The rules generated economically

significant out-of-sample excess returns for each of six exchange rates, over the

period 19811995.

Lui and Mole (1998) report the results of a questionnaire survey conducted in

February 1995 on the use by foreign exchange dealers in Hong Kong of fundamental

and technical analyses. They found that over 85% of respondents rely on both

methods and, again, technical analysis was more popular at shorter time horizons.

Neely (1998) reconciles the fact that using technical trading rules to trade against US

intervention in foreign exchange markets can be profitable, yet, longterm, the

intervention tends to be profitable. LeBaron (1999) shows that, when using technical

analysis in the foreign exchange market, after removing periods in which the Federal

Reserve is active, exchange rate predictability is dramatically reduced.

Lo, Mamaysky andWang (2000) examines the effectiveness of technical analysis on

US stocks from 1962 to 1996 and finds that over the 31-year sample period, several

technical indicators do provide incremental information and may have some practical

value.


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Fernandez-Rodrguez, Gonzalez-Martel and Sosvilla-Rivero (2000) apply an

artificial neural network to the Madrid Stock Market and find that, in the absence of

trading costs, the technical trading rule is always superior to a buyand- hold strategy

for both bear market and stable market episodes, but not in a bull market. One

criticism I have is that beating the market in the absence of costs seems of little

significance unless one is interested in finding a signal which will later beincorporated into a full system. Secondly, it is perhaps nave to work on the premise

that bull and bear markets exist. Lee and Swaminathan (2000) demonstrate the

importance of past trading volume. Neely and Weller (2001) use genetic

programming to show that technical trading rules can be profitable during US foreign

exchange intervention. Cesari and Cremonini (2003) make an extensive simulation

comparison of popular dynamic strategies of asset allocation and find that technical

analysis only performs well in Pacific markets.

Cheol-Ho Park and Scott H. Irwin wrote The profitability of technical analysis: A

review Park and Irwin (2004), an excellent review paper on technical analysis.

Kavajecz and Odders-White (2004) show that support and resistance levels coincide

with peaks in depth on the limit order book 1 and moving average forecasts reveal

information about the relative position of depth on the book. They also show that

these relationships stem from technical rules locating depth already in place on the

limit order book.

3 DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

TABLE 1: CALCULATION OF HDFC BANK LTD (Moving Average,

Exponential Moving Average and Rate of Change)

Date High

Price

Low

Price

Close

Price

Moving

Average

Exponential Moving

Average

Rate Of

Change

1-Jan-09 1,019.80 996 1,013.75 1009.95 1003.432 3.002439

2-Jan-09 1,032.00 1,003.20 1,015.65 1005.65 1014.377 4.404811

5-Jan-09 1,049.50 1,028.05 1,044.10 1004.85 1025.039 4.165212

6-Jan-09 1,113.00 1,034.00 1,100.40 1013.04 1062.679 7.988224

7-Jan-09 1,125.25 996 1,009.25 1015.985 1070.321 1.091801

9-Jan-09 1,057.00 975 1,017.50 1019.315 1011.973 0.369914

12-Jan-

09

1,022.00 990 1,003.70 1022.405 1012.946 -1.17659

13-Jan-

09

1,012.00 975.1 988.85 1021.055 998.7995 -5.29164

14-Jan-

09

1,044.70 966.9 977.55 1016.91 985.121 -11.1641

15-Jan-

09

960 907.05 924.8 1009.555 960.1425 -8.3676

16-Jan-

09

944.55 922.2 937.55 1001.935 929.0075 -7.85749

19-Jan- 954.5 931.5 941.1 994.48 938.7215 -6.23692


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09

20-Jan-

09

925 902 912.45 981.315 931.6455 -7.72615

21-Jan-

09

906.8 880 889.45 960.22 904.86 -9.01233

22-Jan-09

917 882 900.5 949.345 893.0965 -2.6276

23-Jan-

09

911.3 865.1 872.45 934.84 891.2435 -6.94363

27-Jan-

09

903.95 880 889.45 923.415 878.06 -5.48826

28-Jan-

09

915.8 895.35 911.75 915.705 896.809 -0.07672

29-Jan-

09

937.55 910 923.45 910.295 915.611 3.822587

30-Jan-

09

935 892.4 925.6 910.375 924.1595 2.78734

2-Feb-09

920.5 877 888.7 905.49 913.423 1.862571

3-Feb-

09

909.8 890 898.2 901.2 891.835 0.983754

4-Feb-

09

922.55 882.15 885.85 898.54 894.1245 -2.84069

5-Feb-

09

899.7 880.1 884.25 898.02 885.322 -4.24495

6-Feb-

09

904.8 886.4 898.4 897.81 888.9195 -2.93863

9-Feb-

09

922 903 919.45 902.51 905.3465 3.46011

10-Feb-

09

958.15 921.35 947 908.265 928.5415 5.433088

11-Feb-

09

942.95 907 934.5 910.54 942.875 5.4919

12-Feb-

09

941 924.55 933.85 911.58 934.2855 5.609273

13-Feb-

09

953.9 937 944.15 913.435 937.249 5.092386

16-Feb-

09

940 908 913.95 915.96 934.184 -0.59818

17-Feb-

09

914.4 870.25 880.3 914.17 902.8455 -7.04329

18-Feb-

09

888 864.95 876.4 913.225 879.013 -6.21723

19-Feb-

09

892.2 874.35 884.55 913.255 879.0895 -5.27922

20-Feb-

09

878.9 853.6 866.5 910.065 878.5935 -8.22433

Date High

Price

Low

Price

Close

Price

Moving

Average

Exponential Moving

Average

Rate Of

Change

24-Feb-

09

860 835 854.5 903.57 862.54 -6.50473

25-Feb-

09

871.35 860.2 864.3 895.3 857.734 -1.81756


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26-Feb-

09

882.85 841 874.8 889.33 867.765 -0.18257

27-Feb-

09

897.9 843 889.5 884.895 879.651 0.559607

2-Mar-

09

876.95 837.5 845.7 875.05 875.046 -2.40046

3-Mar-

09

843.2 820 831.5 866.805 841.014 -2.69163

4-Mar-

09

850 830 839 862.675 833.975 -2.92722

5-Mar-

09

854.5 791.15 801.4 855.175 826.592 -8.39049

6-Mar-

09

827.95 774 801.8 846.9 801.532 -9.85947

9-Mar-

09

814.7 782.25 798.75 840.125 800.7935 -5.55161

12-Mar-

09

834 791.15 798.65 834.54 798.717 -3.95069

13-Mar-

09

836.8 812.25 834.25 831.535 810.398 -0.56615

16-Mar-

09

852.6 826.65 844.85 828.54 837.748 5.421762

17-Mar-

09

859 809.1 828.15 822.405 839.339 3.286356

18-Mar-

09

860 832.2 843 822.135 833.0505 5.539906

19-Mar-

09

863 819 832.4 822.225 839.502 4.225881

20-Mar-

09

841.7 811 839.3 822.255 834.677 0.605334

23-Mar-

09

899.8 842 885 830.615 854.381 4.752323

24-Mar-

09

974 910 941.7 844.605 903.711 13.71128

25-Mar-

09

976.9 937 972.15 861.945 951.7485 15.32028

26-Mar-

09

1,005.00 975.15 993.4 881.42 979.1625 19.34166

27-Mar-

09

1,013.00 980.9 1,001.45 898.14 996.0565 19.31967

30-Mar-

09

980 940.7 945.5 908.205 982.9865 6.836158

31-Mar-

09

987.9 904.4 973.4 922.73 954.707 3.366253


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CHART 1

Inference:

The chart shows that 10 days moving average and market price from JAN 1st

2009- Mar 31st 2009. From the chart we can infer that the 10 days moving average has

intersected the market price on JAN 7th 2009 and the market price have fallen below

the 10 days moving average, hence a bearish trend followed. If the market price is

above the 10 days moving average than the trend will be bullish.

The current market price of Rs.937.4 is greater than the 10 days moving average

of Rs.922.75 therefore the trend reversal is expected. The trend will be bullish with

effect from Mar 31st 2009.

CHART 2:

Inference

The calculated roc value raises from -5.5 on 2nd

MAR 09 to 19.2 on 23rd

MARthus indicating bullish trend ahead

The calculated roc value declining from 19.2 on 23rd MAR 09 to 3.31 on 31st

MAR 09 thus indicating bearish trend ahead.

CHART 3:


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Inference

The calculated EMA value raises from 798.3 on 13th MAR 09 to 954.5 on 31stMAR 09 thus indicating bullish trend ahead

The calculated EMA value declining from 1070.81 on 6th JAN 09 to 801.71 on

6th march 09 thus indicating bearish trend ahead.

TABLE 2: CALCULATION OF RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX FOR HDFC

BANK LTD

Date High Price Low Price Close Price 14 days RS Gain Loss +Ve Loss

1-Jan-09 1,019.80 996 1,013.75 1.4 14.72143 -110.9 7.921429 1

2-Jan-09 1,032.00 1,003.20 1,015.65 24.3 14.75714 -110.9 7.921429 1

5-Jan-09 1,049.50 1,028.05 1,044.10 40.7 15.05357 -110.9 7.921429 1

6-Jan-09 1,113.00 1,034.00 1,100.40 17.25 16.16786 -110.9 7.921429 2

7-Jan-09 1,125.25 996 1,009.25 56.45 14.93571 -202.05 14.43214 1

9-Jan-09 1,057.00 975 1,017.50 -6.55 11.49286 -202.05 14.43214 0

12-Jan-09 1,022.00 990 1,003.70 -33.6 11.49286 -209.3 14.95 0

13-Jan-09 1,012.00 975.1 988.85 -38.7 11.49286 -190.55 13.61071 0

14-Jan-09 1,044.70 966.9 977.55 4.4 11.49286 -163.15 11.65357 0

15-Jan-09 960 907.05 924.8 -11.4 11.17857 -215.9 15.42143 0

16-Jan-09 944.55 922.2 937.55 29.55 12.08929 -204.5 14.60714 0

19-Jan-09 954.5 931.5 941.1 16.65 10.23214 -204.5 14.60714 0

20-Jan-09 925 902 912.45 -20.65 9.042857 -233.15 16.65357 0

21-Jan-09 906.8 880 889.45 15.4 9.042857 -235.5 16.82143 0

22-Jan-09 917 882 900.5 1.9 8.732143 -235.5 16.82143 0

23-Jan-09 911.3 865.1 872.45 28.45 8.596429 -263.55 18.825 0


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27-Jan-09 903.95 880 889.45 56.3 7.778571 -263.55 18.825 0

28-Jan-09 915.8 895.35 911.75 -91.15 5.35 -263.55 18.825 0

29-Jan-09 937.55 910 923.45 8.25 6.185714 -172.4 12.31429 0

30-Jan-09 935 892.4 925.6 -13.8 5.75 -172.4 12.31429 0

CALCULATION OF RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX HDFC BANK LTD

e High Price Low Price Close Price 14 days RS Gain Loss +ve Loss RS RSI

b-09 920.5 877 888.7 0.7 2.671429 -89.15 6.367857 0.419518 29.55354

b-09 909.8 890 898.2 6.95 2.621429 -109.3 7.807143 0.335773 25.13699

b-09 922.55 882.15 885.85 -10.2 2.596429 -109.3 7.807143 0.332571 24.95709

b-09 899.7 880.1 884.25 -6.65 2.635714 -99.1 7.078571 0.372351 27.13235

b-09 904.8 886.4 898.4 -0.4 2.635714 -94.5 6.75 0.390476 28.08219

b-09 922 903 919.45 -6.45 2.778571 -94.1 6.721429 0.41339 29.24812

eb-09 958.15 921.35 947 -7.35 3.682143 -87.65 6.260714 0.588135 37.03305

eb-09 942.95 907 934.5 -17.2 3.682143 -81.75 5.839286 0.630581 38.67217

eb-09 941 924.55 933.85 -2.85 4.071429 -64.55 4.610714 0.883036 46.89428

eb-09 953.9 937 944.15 5.2 4.353571 -61.7 4.407143 0.987844 49.69425

eb-09 940 908 913.95 10.95 3.982143 -65.6 4.685714 0.849848 45.94149

eb-09 914.4 870.25 880.3 -13.4 3.2 -74 5.285714 0.605405 37.71044

eb-09 888 864.95 876.4 13.6 3.95 -60.6 4.328571 0.912541 47.71355

eb-09 892.2 874.35 884.55 -24.65 2.978571 -63.35 4.525 0.658248 39.69538

eb-09 878.9 853.6 866.5 -20.15 2.978571 -39.85 2.846429 1.046424 51.13427

eb-09 860 835 854.5 6.6 3.214286 -19.7 1.407143 2.284264 69.55178

eb-09 871.35 860.2 864.3 0.55 2.742857 -23.05 1.646429 1.665944 62.48983

eb-09 882.85 841 874.8 -2.05 2.803571 -23.05 1.646429 1.70282 63.00161

eb-09 897.9 843 889.5 2 2.803571 -25.2 1.8 1.55754 60.89992


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CALCULATION OF RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX HDFC BANK LTD

e High Price Low Price Close Price 14 days RS Gain Loss +ve Loss RS RSI

r-09 876.95 837.5 845.7 12.65 2.660714 -28.2 2.014286 1.320922 56.91367

r-09 843.2 820 831.5 -1.45 1.757143 -28.85 2.060714 0.852686 46.02432

r-09 850 830 839 5.45 1.757143 -28.1 2.007143 0.875445 46.67932

r-09 854.5 791.15 801.4 3.95 1.367857 -28.9 2.064286 0.66263 39.85432

r-09 827.95 774 801.8 -3.9 1.085714 -29.95 2.139286 0.507513 33.66556

r-09 814.7 782.25 798.75 -8.4 1.085714 -33.1 2.364286 0.459215 31.46998

ar-09 834 791.15 798.65 10.5 1.085714 -26.8 1.914286 0.567164 36.19048

ar-09 836.8 812.25 834.25 -2.75 1.478571 -26.8 1.914286 0.772388 43.57895

ar-09 852.6 826.65 844.85 -1.15 2.142857 -24.05 1.717857 1.247401 55.50416

ar-09 859 809.1 828.15 3.3 2.142857 -25.85 1.846429 1.160542 53.71531

ar-09 860 832.2 843 -3.35 2.857143 -25.85 1.846429 1.547389 60.74412

ar-09 863 819 832.4 1.4 2.978571 -22.5 1.607143 1.853333 64.95327

ar-09 841.7 811 839.3 -4.2 2.878571 -25 1.785714 1.612 61.71516

ar-09 899.8 842 885 -3 2.878571 -25.65 1.832143 1.57115 61.1069

ar-09 974 910 941.7 -0.65 2.878571 -23 1.642857 1.752174 63.66509

ar-09 976.9 937 972.15 -0.7 3.617857 -22.35 1.596429 2.266219 69.38356

ar-09 1,005.00 975.15 993.4 -0.8 3.617857 -21.95 1.567857 2.307517 69.76584

ar-09 1,013.00 980.9 1,001.45 -1.05 4.078571 -21.15 1.510714 2.699764 72.97125

ar-09 980 940.7 945.5 -7.05 4.078571 -37.4 2.671429 1.526738 60.42328

ar-09 987.9 904.4 973.4 -2.1 4.207143 -30.35 2.167857 1.940692 65.9944

CHART 4:

Inference


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The calculated RSI value fell from 65.07 on 1st JAN to 22.1 on 28th JAN 09

signifies signal of bullish trend.

The calculated RSI value again decline from 88.89 to 1st MAR 09 to 79.3 on31th MAR signifies the signal of bearish trend

TABLE 3:

CALCULATION OF STOCHASTICS METHOD FOR HDFC BANK LTD

Date High Price Low Price Close Price C-L5 H5-L5 %K %D

1-Jan-09 1,019.80 996 1,013.75 57.75 78.3 73.75479 72.68924

2-Jan-09 1,032.00 1,003.20 1,015.65 59.65 78.3 76.18135 69.80715

5-Jan-09 1,049.50 1,028.05 1,044.10 55.65 61.05 91.15479 79.50839

6-Jan-09 1,113.00 1,034.00 1,100.40 111.95 124.55 89.88358 86.11216

7-Jan-09 1,125.25 996 1,009.25 13.25 129.25 10.25145 57.44005

9-Jan-09 1,057.00 975 1,017.50 42.5 150.25 28.28619 41.50476

12-Jan-09 1,022.00 990 1,003.70 28.7 150.25 19.1015 19.65096

13-Jan-09 1,012.00 975.1 988.85 13.85 150.25 9.21797 18.86855

14-Jan-09 1,044.70 966.9 977.55 10.65 158.35 6.725608 11.5942

15-Jan-09 960 907.05 924.8 17.75 149.95 11.83728 9.213826

16-Jan-09 944.55 922.2 937.55 30.5 137.65 22.15765 13.20776

19-Jan-09 954.5 931.5 941.1 34.05 137.65 24.73665 19.35332

20-Jan-09 925 902 912.45 10.45 142.7 7.323055 17.94258

21-Jan-09 906.8 880 889.45 9.45 80 11.8125 14.97156

22-Jan-09 917 882 900.5 20.5 74.5 27.51678 13.59354

23-Jan-09 911.3 865.1 872.45 7.35 89.4 8.221477 15.29315

27-Jan-09 903.95 880 889.45 24.35 59.9 40.65109 23.3244

28-Jan-09 915.8 895.35 911.75 46.65 51.9 89.88439 38.94135

29-Jan-09 937.55 910 923.45 58.35 72.45 80.5383 70.20353

30-Jan-09 935 892.4 925.6 60.5 72.45 83.50587 84.09553

2-Feb-09 920.5 877 888.7 11.7 60.55 19.32287 63.54344


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3-Feb-09 909.8 890 898.2 21.2 60.55 35.01239 48.25626

4-Feb-09 922.55 882.15 885.85 8.85 60.55 14.61602 22.98376

5-Feb-09 899.7 880.1 884.25 7.25 58 12.5 20.82635

6-Feb-09 904.8 886.4 898.4 21.4 45.55 46.98134 22.85192

9-Feb-09 922 903 919.45 39.35 42.45 92.69729 46.57534

10-Feb-09 958.15 921.35 947 66.9 78.05 85.71429 76.87444

11-Feb-09 942.95 907 934.5 54.4 78.05 69.69891 80.91161

12-Feb-09 941 924.55 933.85 47.45 71.75 66.1324 74.06188

13-Feb-09 953.9 937 944.15 41.15 55.15 74.61469 69.77312

16-Feb-09 940 908 913.95 6.95 51.15 13.58749 53.6647

17-Feb-09 914.4 870.25 880.3 10.05 83.65 12.01435 30.61332

18-Feb-09 888 864.95 876.4 11.45 88.95 12.8724 12.71508

19-Feb-09 892.2 874.35 884.55 19.6 88.95 22.03485 15.71401

Date High Price Low Price Close Price C-L5 H5-L5 %K %D

20-Feb-09 878.9 853.6 866.5 12.9 86.4 14.93056 16.62883

24-Feb-09 860 835 854.5 19.5 79.4 24.55919 20.41217

25-Feb-09 871.35 860.2 864.3 29.3 57.2 51.22378 27.66816

26-Feb-09 882.85 841 874.8 39.8 57.2 69.58042 45.71723

27-Feb-09 897.9 843 889.5 54.5 62.9 86.64547 69.71235

2-Mar-09 876.95 837.5 845.7 10.7 62.9 17.01113 57.37705

3-Mar-09 843.2 820 831.5 11.5 77.9 14.76252 37.65341

4-Mar-09 850 830 839 19 77.9 24.39024 18.83859

5-Mar-09 854.5 791.15 801.4 10.25 106.75 9.601874 15.52085

6-Mar-09 827.95 774 801.8 27.8 102.95 27.0034 19.83658

9-Mar-09 814.7 782.25 798.75 24.75 80.5 30.74534 21.64025

12-Mar-09 834 791.15 798.65 24.65 80.5 30.62112 29.24796

13-Mar-09 836.8 812.25 834.25 60.25 80.5 74.84472 45.40373

16-Mar-09 852.6 826.65 844.85 70.85 78.6 90.13995 65.00417

17-Mar-09 859 809.1 828.15 45.9 76.75 59.80456 75.0477

18-Mar-09 860 832.2 843 51.85 68.85 75.30864 75.20071

19-Mar-09 863 819 832.4 23.3 53.9 43.2282 60.67669

20-Mar-09 841.7 811 839.3 30.2 53.9 56.02968 59.6377

23-Mar-09 899.8 842 885 75.9 90.7 83.68247 65.18892

24-Mar-09 974 910 941.7 130.7 163 80.18405 76.98309

25-Mar-09 976.9 937 972.15 161.15 165.9 97.13683 87.64299

26-Mar-09 1,005.00 975.15 993.4 182.4 194 94.02062 90.69612

27-Mar-09 1,013.00 980.9 1,001.45 159.45 171 93.24561 94.74477

30-Mar-09 980 940.7 945.5 35.5 103 34.46602 80.63034

31-Mar-09 987.9 904.4 973.4 69 108.6 63.53591 68.9885


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CHART 5:

Inference:

This chart shows the % K and % D stochastic from JAN 1st 2008 to MAR 31th

2009. From the chart we can infer that there are more over bought position than the

over sold. When %K or %D is below 20 then the share are over sold in that period. If

the %K or %D is above 80 then the shares are over bought. When % K or % D is at

75% to 85% then it is the best time to sell shares or grow short. When % K or %D is

at 15% then it is the best buy signal. As the % D has fallen to below 20% on Jan 12

th

2009. A bearish trend is predicted.

Recently there was an over sold position, the % D was 96% on Mar 26th 2009 and

then decreased to 68% on Mar 31th 2009. Negative divergence was formed, hence the

trend will reverse. A bearish trend is follow

TABLE 4:

CALCULATION OF MOVING AVERAGE CONVERGENCE AND

DIVERGENCE METHOD FOR HDFC BANK LTD

Date High Price Low Price Close Price 12 D EMA 48 D EMA MACD OF A &B

1-Jan-09 1,019.80 996 1,013.75 991.9546 942.6692 49.28541

2-Jan-09 1,032.00 1,003.20 1,015.65 995.5089 945.5884 49.92049

5-Jan-09 1,049.50 1,028.05 1,044.10 1002.798 949.5289 53.26869

6-Jan-09 1,113.00 1,034.00 1,100.40 1017.438 955.5637 61.874217-Jan-09 1,125.25 996 1,009.25 1016.21 957.7112 58.49857


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9-Jan-09 1,057.00 975 1,017.50 1016.403 960.1027 56.30055

12-Jan-09 1,022.00 990 1,003.70 1014.498 961.8466 52.65117

13-Jan-09 1,012.00 975.1 988.85 1010.651 962.9268 47.72387

14-Jan-09 1,044.70 966.9 977.55 1005.686 963.5117 42.17384

15-Jan-09 960 907.05 924.8 993.5527 961.9632 31.58948

16-Jan-09 944.55 922.2 937.55 985.1523 960.9867 24.1656

19-Jan-09 954.5 931.5 941.1 978.5445 960.1912 18.35323

20-Jan-09 925 902 912.45 968.6303 958.2816 10.34871

21-Jan-09 906.8 880 889.45 956.7532 955.5283 1.224929

22-Jan-09 917 882 900.5 948.3153 953.3272 -5.01193

23-Jan-09 911.3 865.1 872.45 936.9355 950.0921 -13.1566

27-Jan-09 903.95 880 889.45 929.8126 947.6664 -17.8538

28-Jan-09 915.8 895.35 911.75 927.1032 946.2298 -19.1265

29-Jan-09 937.55 910 923.45 991.9546 942.6692 49.28541

30-Jan-09 935 892.4 925.6 995.5089 945.5884 49.92049

2-Feb-09 920.5 877 888.7 920.7552 942.2966 -21.5415

3-Feb-09 909.8 890 898.2 917.3719 940.5328 -23.1609

4-Feb-09 922.55 882.15 885.85 912.6436 938.3455 -25.7018

5-Feb-09 899.7 880.1 884.25 908.3846 936.1816 -27.7971

6-Feb-09 904.8 886.4 898.4 906.8869 934.6704 -27.7835

9-Feb-09 922 903 919.45 908.7714 934.0616 -25.2902

10-Feb-09 958.15 921.35 947 914.5057 934.5791 -20.0734

11-Feb-09 942.95 907 934.5 917.5048 934.5759 -17.0711

12-Feb-09 941 924.55 933.85 919.9566 934.5469 -14.5903

13-Feb-09 953.9 937 944.15 923.5856 934.931 -11.3454

16-Feb-09 940 908 913.95 922.1403 934.0918 -11.9515

17-Feb-09 914.4 870.25 880.3 915.8642 931.9401 -16.0759

18-Feb-09 888 864.95 876.4 909.9446 929.7185 -19.7739

19-Feb-09 892.2 874.35 884.55 906.1354 927.9118 -21.7764

20-Feb-09 878.9 853.6 866.5 900.1901 925.4553 -25.2652

Date High Price Low Price Close Price 12 D EMA 48 D EMA MACD OF A &B

24-Feb-09 860 835 854.5 893.3366 922.6171 -29.2805

25-Feb-09 871.35 860.2 864.3 888.9811 920.2844 -31.3033

26-Feb-09 882.85 841 874.8 886.8539 918.465 -31.6111

27-Feb-09 897.9 843 889.5 887.2508 917.3064 -30.0556

2-Mar-09 876.95 837.5 845.7 881.0182 914.4422 -33.424

3-Mar-09 843.2 820 831.5 873.5905 911.1245 -37.534

4-Mar-09 850 830 839 868.4019 908.2395 -39.8376

5-Mar-09 854.5 791.15 801.4 858.3516 903.9659 -45.6143

6-Mar-09 827.95 774 801.8 849.8689 899.8793 -50.0104

9-Mar-09 814.7 782.25 798.75 842.201 895.8341 -53.6331

12-Mar-09 834 791.15 798.65 835.6684 891.9467 -56.2784

13-Mar-09 836.8 812.25 834.25 835.4556 889.6389 -54.1832

16-Mar-09 852.6 826.65 844.85 836.8648 887.8473 -50.9825

17-Mar-09 859 809.1 828.15 835.5576 885.4594 -49.9019

18-Mar-09 860 832.2 843 836.6739 883.761 -47.0871


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19-Mar-09 863 819 832.4 836.0328 881.7066 -45.6738

20-Mar-09 841.7 811 839.3 836.5229 880.0103 -43.4874

23-Mar-09 899.8 842 885 843.7945 880.2099 -36.4155

24-Mar-09 974 910 941.7 858.4803 882.6695 -24.1892

25-Mar-09 976.9 937 972.15 875.5308 886.2488 -10.718

26-Mar-09 1,005.00 975.15 993.4 893.2111 890.5348 2.676346

27-Mar-09 1,013.00 980.9 1,001.45 909.447 894.9714 14.47557

30-Mar-09 980 940.7 945.5 914.8549 896.9926 17.86238

31-Mar-09 987.9 904.4 973.4 923.6367 900.0489 23.58784

CHART 6:

Inference

The calculated MACD value fells from 62.6 on 4 JAN 09 to -57.63 on 12th

MAR 09 showing bearish trend ahead

The calculated MACD value raise from -57.62 on 12th January 09 -23.49 on

31th MAR 09 showing the bearish trend.


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TABLE 5:

CALCULATION FOR BHARTI AIRTEL LTD (MOVING AVERAGE,

EXPONENTIAL MOVING AVERAGE AND RATE OF CHANGE)

an analytical study on the performance of selected equities in nse

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