An Analytic Network Process Approach Analytic Network Process Approach to Rural Telecommunications to Rural Telecommunications Infrastructure SelectionInfrastructure Selection

Y. Gasiea, M. Emsley and L. MikhailovBusiness Systems DivisionManchester Business SchoolBoot Street East, Manchester 15 6PB, UKEmail: ludi.mikhailov@manchester.ac.ukPhone: +44 161 306 3361

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Outline

IntroductionAnalytic Network ProcessThe Proposed ANP Selection ModelResultsConclusions

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Introduction

There is a need to expand connectivity to rural areas to deploy appropriate telecoms services.The challenge is in the choice of the most suitable telecoms infrastructure.Rural technologies selection decisions involve:

Uncertainty and multiple conflicting objectives.Presence of qualitative and intangible factors.Issues of the selection process are not only technical.

Rural areas are characterized by:Isolated, scattered settlements with low population. Harsh climatic and topographic features.Low level of economic activities.Less developed infrastructure.

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Introduction (cont.)

SocialFactors

RegulatoryFactors

InfrastructureFactors

EconomicalFactors

EnvironmentalFactors

TechnicalFactors

Selection of the most appropriate Rural Telecoms Infrastructure technology

The selection of rural telecommunications infrastructure

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Introduction (cont.)

Research objective: to develop a MCDM model that can enhance the selection process.

ANP is adopted to analyze the problem because the problem involves dependence and feedback.

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Analytic Network Process

ANP is a multi-criteria decision making approach. It is a generalization of the AHP.

It is designed to incorporate tangible as well as non-tangible factors.

It is a powerful tool when the subjective judgments of different individuals constitute an important part of the decision.

Intuitively solved decision problems can now be solved as procedure-orientated using ANP.

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ANP Applications

Some recent applications of ANP are reported in:

Strategy selection

Project selection

Quality management

Financial forecasting

Logistics decisions

Applications of ANP to rural telecoms infrastructure selection have not been cited in literature.

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Telecommunications Infrastructure

To provide telecoms services, two types of infrastructures are needed; Backbone and Access networks.

The backbone connects the country’s main telecoms centre with the remote access network.

The access network connects the end-user with the backbone network.

Both types of networks could be wireless or wireline.

Any decisions made for each of these two segments must consider the characteristics of rural settlements.

The primary focus of this paper the backbone network.

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The Proposed Model

Goal: How to select the most appropriate rural telecomsbackbone infrastructure technology?

1. Setting selection criteria

Intensive literature survey.

Consulting telecoms experts.

An online survey was conducted to rate the criteria.

Criteria were ranked according to their ‘Mean’ value.

Criteria were grouped into six clusters, coded A - F.

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Cluster Criteria Mean(A1) Reliability 4.00(A2) Ease of maintenance 3.94(A3) Remote network management 3.88(A4) Compatibility 3.81(A5) Ease of installation 3.72(A6) Scalability 3.54(A7) Bandwidth 3.53(A8) Flexibility 3.52(A9) Latency 3.30(B1) Coverage range 3.80(B2) Security of physical infrastructure 3.73(B3) Proposed usage 3.40(B4) Availability of skilled technicians 3.34(B5) Access to existing telecoms infrastructure 3.32(B6) Remoteness of area 3.26(B7) Rollout time 3.11(B8) Parallel infrastructure 2.97(C1) Operating cost 4.13(C2) Funding sources 4.11(C3) Capital cost 3.98(C4) Return on investment 3.63(C5) Economic development of area 3.32(D1) Demand 3.77(D2) Affordability 3.73(D3) Population density 3.48(D4) Community of interest 3.42(E1) Spectrum availability 3.74(E2) Licensing constraints 3.52(E3) Rights of way 3.30(F1) Terrain topography 3.24(F2) Climatic conditions 3.00

(F) Environmental

(E) Regulatory

(D) Social

(C) Economical

(B) Infrastructure

(A) Technical

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Potential Alternatives

2. Identification of alternativesReviewing literature.

Consulting experts

Wireline Technologies:√ (G1) Fiber Optic Cable √ (G2) Power Line Communication

Wireless Technologies:√ (G3) Microwave Links√ (G4) Satellite Communications

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Alternatives’ Comparisons

Technology Advantages Disadvantages

Fiber Optic CableHigh speedMore reliabilityHigh flexibility

High CostLong rollout timeMost difficult to deploy

Power Line Communication

SimplicityLow costUse of power lines

Less reliabilityData signal disruptionNoise and interference

Microwave LinkHigh speed & ReliabilityLow cost equipmentFast deployment

Requires line of sightLicensing constraintsLess bandwidth & Flexibility

Satellite Communication

Wide CoverageEase of deploymentOvercome terrain topology

High LatencyLimited & costly bandwidthFading causes outages

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Dependency Assessment

3. The influence of dominance among criteria was examined

A new Survey questionnaires was designed.

7 completed questionnaires were collected.

The majority rule of 4/7 experts consensus was used for aggregation of responses.

The final dependency matrix was developed using a zero-one matrix.

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Dependency Matrix

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SuperDecisions Implementation

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Collection of Inputs

4. Pairwise comparisons involves obtaining judgments from experts.

The model contained 92 judgement matrices.

A total number of 674 pairwise comparison questions.

Several one-page online questionnaires were designed

Scale of 1 to 9 was adopted for the comparisons.

Sent to Telco experts seeking their judgments.

4 answers were received for each question.

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A screenshot of the online questionnaire

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Aggregation of Judgements

Geometric means were computed for each pairwise question.

Group judgments were then entered into SuperDecisions.

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Results and Discussion

5. The ‘global preferences’ for alternatives are:

Microwave link technology is the most preferred alternative with a priority of 45.32%Satellite has 28.72%, Fiber optic cable has 14.38% and the least proffered alternative is Power Line carrier.

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Conclusions

Technology selection decisions in rural areas of developing countries are to be taken in a very complex environments.

The developed inner & outer dependences and feedback among the structure calls for the network form to model the problem.

The ANP model developed in this work was based on factors and alternatives identified from literature & experts.

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Conclusions

This model could be adapted or extended to support a particular context or a situation of a developing country.

Final alternative scores should be thought of as an input to the decision-making process rather than its end.

This process would be refined with experience, optimizing the accuracy and time taken to reach proper decisions regarding the choice of telecoms infrastructure in rural surroundings.

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