An Analysis of the Geographic Incidence of Social Welfare Factors as theyRelate to School Performance of Early Elementary School Children

PurposeThis project is a demonstration of the utility of a decision support system for the City of Berkeley Department of Health and Human Services. The system includes data displaying the geographic incidence of social welfare factors within the entire City of Berkeley, on the census block level.

Translating Address Level Data to Block LevelTo create census block level layers of our data files, we devised a methodology to assign addresses to census blocks by intersecting a “cleaned” census block layer with an assessor’s parcel layer. We then summed address based data up to the block level using Microsoft Access.

HypothesisTest scores vary spatially as a result of neighborhood and household characteristics. The map below shows a spatial distribution of average test scores.

Census Block Layer Assessor’s Parcel Layer

Intersect

3-D Surface of Average Test Score per Block for Second Graders

Example of Origin ofStudents contrasted with nearest school analysis

The variation between schools can not be attributed to the neighborhoods from which students are coming. As the map below indicates, students attending each school are pulled from throughout the City of Berkeley.

Average Difference of Means per Variable

Variable Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3Welfare -3.20 -6.37 -7.24Domestic Violence -3.17 -5.13 -4.80Potential Lead 2.64 2.60 1.95*Low Birth Weight -1.72 -0.33* -3.37Inadequate Prenatal Care -1.15* -2.15 -1.92*School** +/- 8.18 +/- 11.74 +/- 12.62

* not statistically significant according to a difference of means test (T-test)** maximum difference of means between schools

Statistical Analysis We performed a statistical analysis on the address level data, using common address fields to determine which students experienced each factor. We then performed a series of difference of means tests, the results of which are shown in the table below. The most significant factor affecting average scores turned out to be differences in test scores between schools (as shown in the graph below).

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Art

s M

ag

ne

t

Co

lum

bu

s

Cra

gm

on

t

Em

ers

on

Je

ffe

rso

n

Jo

hn

Mu

ir

Le

Co

nte

Ma

lco

lm X

Ox

ford

Th

ou

sa

nd

Oa

ks

Wa

sh

ing

ton

All

Sc

ho

ols

Third Grade

Second Grade

First Grade

Differences in Total Average Scores for First through Third Graders by School

Blocks with Incidencesof Domestic Violence and Welfare

Students in Grades 1 to 3 with scores under the 20th Percentileof their grade

We also performed a buffer analysis to compare the neighborhoods within a quarter mile of each school. The analysis revealed that the schools with the lowest average test scores were located in neighborhoods with lower median income levels, and higher incidences of crime.

1/4 mile buffers around each school indicating presence of narcotics crimes near schools. Color of Buffer indicates rank of school relative to average test scores.

Spatial Analysis We used the Map Calculator feature of ArcView to examine the spatial coincidence of the other significant factors including domestic violence, welfare, low birth weight, and inadequate prenatal care, as they relate to blocks with the lowest test scores (shown below).

As the sample map below of domestic violence and welfare demonstrates, the comparison of the results of these map calculations to the location of kids with the lowest test scores indicates a strong spatial relationship between these factors.

UC BerkeleyCity Planning 255Urban Planning Applications of GIS

Nikki BuffaWilliam BulkleyKathy KleinbaumChristine Maher

ConclusionThese analyses suggest that in addition to the schools themselves, neighborhood characteristics, such as crime, welfare, and domestic violence, may also impact children’s performance in school.