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An agroclimatic potential in southern Siberia in a changing climate during the XXI century Tchebakova Nadezda and Parfenova Elena Institute of Forest, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences Lysanova Galina Institute of Geography, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences and Soja Amber National Institute of Aerospace (NIA), NASA

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Page 1: An agroclimatic potential in southern Siberia in a ... · PDF file•Climatic factors control crop distribution and production in the south of Siberia ... Слайд 1 Author:

An agroclimatic potential in southern Siberia in a changing climate during the XXI century

Tchebakova Nadezda and Parfenova Elena

Institute of Forest, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences

Lysanova Galina

Institute of Geography, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences

and Soja Amber

National Institute of Aerospace (NIA), NASA

Page 2: An agroclimatic potential in southern Siberia in a ... · PDF file•Climatic factors control crop distribution and production in the south of Siberia ... Слайд 1 Author:

PremiseThe southern portion of Siberia is a subboreal forest-

steppe (light-green) and steppe (yellow) ecozone and is known to have high agroclimatic potential due to

favorable climatic and soil conditions

Page 3: An agroclimatic potential in southern Siberia in a ... · PDF file•Climatic factors control crop distribution and production in the south of Siberia ... Слайд 1 Author:

green – new forest habitats;yellow – new steppe habitats; white – no change

• Potential northward both forest and non-forest biome shifts over Siberia were modeled by 2080 coupling our Siberian bioclimatic vegetation model (SiBCliM) to climate change predicted from the HadCM3 A2 and B1 projections;

• At the expense of forests, approximately 40% of Siberia (yellow) was predicted to be covered by forest-steppe and steppe by the end of the century that could be potentially suitable for agriculture;

Premise

HadCM3 B1HadCM3 A2

Page 4: An agroclimatic potential in southern Siberia in a ... · PDF file•Climatic factors control crop distribution and production in the south of Siberia ... Слайд 1 Author:

Our goals

• evaluate ongoing climate change in central Siberia from observed data: in the baseline period 1960-1990 and in 1990-2010;

• predict related hot spots of potential agriculture change in the contemporary climate 1990-2010 and in the future based on the Hadley 2020, 2050 and 2080 climate change projections;

• finally, identify new agricultural regions based on a new agroclimatic potential that may evolve as climate changes.

Page 5: An agroclimatic potential in southern Siberia in a ... · PDF file•Climatic factors control crop distribution and production in the south of Siberia ... Слайд 1 Author:

Study area: Central Siberia(50-75°N and 85-105 °E )

Khakas Republic

Former Soviet Union

Krasnoyarsk krai

Republic of Tyva

Arable lands

Central Siberia

90 weather

stations

Page 6: An agroclimatic potential in southern Siberia in a ... · PDF file•Climatic factors control crop distribution and production in the south of Siberia ... Слайд 1 Author:

Climate change in central Siberia from 1960-1990 to 1991-2010 (historical data) and from 1990 to 2020 and

from 1990 to 2080(modeled from HadCM B1 and A2)

B1 2020 A2 20201991-2010

T July

T Jan

Precip, %

(-0.5)-0°

0-0.5°

0.5-1°

1-1.5°

1.5-2°

B1 2080 A2 2080

1.5-2°

2.5-3°

3.5-4°

4-4.5°

4.5-5°

5-5.5°

0-1°

6-6.5°

4.5-5°

>8°

5-6°

6-7°3-4°

2-3°

1-2°

<0°

3-4°4-5°

2-3°

7-8°

8-9°>9°

<<0

0-10

10-20

10-20

20-30

10-20

20-30

Page 7: An agroclimatic potential in southern Siberia in a ... · PDF file•Climatic factors control crop distribution and production in the south of Siberia ... Слайд 1 Author:

Results

• Winters are already 2-3°С warmer in the north and 1-2°С warmer in the south by 2010

• Summer temperatures increased by 1°С in the north and by 1-2°С in the south;

• Change in precipitation is more complicated, increasing on average 10% in middle latitudes, and decreasing 10-20% in the south, promoting local drying in already dry landscapes;

• Similarities between historical trends in temperature and precipitation to 2010 and the Hadley 2020 B1 and A2 climate projections, both in terms of patterns and location, suggest the Hadley AOGCMs correctly captured current climatic trends in central Siberia;

Page 8: An agroclimatic potential in southern Siberia in a ... · PDF file•Climatic factors control crop distribution and production in the south of Siberia ... Слайд 1 Author:

Classification of Agri Regions*

Contemporary climate

Future climate

ZONE Growing

Degree-days, 5oC

ZONE Annual Moisture

Index

1. Severe < 50 1. Suplus

moisture

< 1.5

2. Very cold 50 – 450 2. Sufficient

moisture

1.5 – 2.75

3. Cold 450 – 600 3. Insufficient

moisture

2.75 – 4.0

4. Moderately

cold

600 – 900 4. Dry > 4.0

5. Very cool 900 – 1050

6. Cool 1050 – 1200

7. Moderately

cool

1200 – 1350

8.Insufficiently

warm

1350 – 1500

9. Sufficiently

warm

> 1500

10. Warm 1500 – 1650

11. Very warm 1650 – 1800

12. Hot 1800 – 2000

13. Very hot >2000

* Atlas of Krasnoyarsk krai (1994)

Page 9: An agroclimatic potential in southern Siberia in a ... · PDF file•Climatic factors control crop distribution and production in the south of Siberia ... Слайд 1 Author:

GDD5-based Agri Regions

B1 2020

Before 1960 1960-1990 1990-2010

B1 2080 A2 2020 A2 2080

5 – very cool

6 – cool

7 – moderately cool

8 – insufficiently warm

9 – moderately warm

10 – warm

11 – very warm

12 – hot

13 – very+extremely hot

1 – severe 3 – cold

2 – very cold 4 – moderately cold

Page 10: An agroclimatic potential in southern Siberia in a ... · PDF file•Climatic factors control crop distribution and production in the south of Siberia ... Слайд 1 Author:

AMI-based Agri Regions

B1 2020

Before 1960 1960-1990 1990-2010

B1 2080 A2 2020 A2 2080:

– suplus moisture

– sufficient

– insufficient

– dry

Page 11: An agroclimatic potential in southern Siberia in a ... · PDF file•Climatic factors control crop distribution and production in the south of Siberia ... Слайд 1 Author:

Agri-region area change in a warming climate (%)

AMI Before 1960

1961- 1990

1991- 2010

В1 2020

А2 2020

В1 2080

А2 2080

Suplus Moisture

62.0 60.0 60.0 53.7 66.9 40.6 19.4

Sufficient moisture

34.2 35.3 34.3 37.7 31.0 41.8 49.3

Insufficient moisture

3.1 4.0 4.7 7.3 1.5 15.4 25.6

Dry 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.3 0.6 2.3 5.7

GDD5 Before 1960

1961 –1990

1991 -2010

В1 2020

А2 2020

В1 2080

А2 2080

Severe 4.7 3.3 2.4 2.4 1.8 0.3 Very cold 22.9 23.1 20.8 18.8 17.3 6.9 0.4

Cold 10.1 12.2 10.6 9.8 11.5 8.2 1.2 Moderately cold 26.5 25.1 22.0 18.5 21.4 18.4 9.5

Very cool 14.0 14.2 14.1 11.8 14.1 7.9 9.2 Cool 14.7 16.3 12.7 13.1 12.1 9.1 10.0

Moderately cool 6.9 5.7 14.0 12.4 14.0 12.1 8.0 Insufficiently warm 0.3 0.2 3.3 12.3 7.3 10.3 8.1 Moderately warm 0.1 0.8 0.6 10.0 11.6

Warm 13.3 11.0 Very Warm 3.3 10.3

Hot 0.2 10.5 Very hot 9.9

Extremely hot 0.3

Page 12: An agroclimatic potential in southern Siberia in a ... · PDF file•Climatic factors control crop distribution and production in the south of Siberia ... Слайд 1 Author:

Results

• Warm and hot agri-regions would increase

8-10% in area by 2080 and may be

considered as suitable for crops under

sufficient moisture or irrigation

• Very and extremely hot lands will not be

suitable for crops due to corresponding

insufficient moisture over these lands

Page 13: An agroclimatic potential in southern Siberia in a ... · PDF file•Climatic factors control crop distribution and production in the south of Siberia ... Слайд 1 Author:

Crop species requirements for warmth, GDD5

(Argiclimatology, 1973)

• Potato, cabbage > 600oC

• Barley, pea > 900

• Spring wheat, winter wheat,

maize (silage), oatmeal > 1200

• Sunflower (seed) > 1500

• Maize (seed) > 1650

• Rice, soja bean, grape* > 1800

• Apricot* > 2000

* depends on winter severety

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Traditional and new crop species distribution in southern Siberia in 2010 and 2080

Apricot, GDD5> 2000oC

Spring wheat, GDD5> 2000oC Corn, GDD5> 2000oC

Grape, GDD5> 2000oC

Page 15: An agroclimatic potential in southern Siberia in a ... · PDF file•Climatic factors control crop distribution and production in the south of Siberia ... Слайд 1 Author:

Grain crop production (c/ha)

Spring Wheat (R2 = 0.45)Grain (R2 = 0.52)

Barley (R2 = 0.2) Oatmeal (R2 = 0.5)

Page 16: An agroclimatic potential in southern Siberia in a ... · PDF file•Climatic factors control crop distribution and production in the south of Siberia ... Слайд 1 Author:

Forage crop production (c/ha)

Maize (silage, R2 = 0.69) Hey (R2 = 0.49)

Forage root plants (R2 = 0.25) Potato (R2 = 0.31)

Page 17: An agroclimatic potential in southern Siberia in a ... · PDF file•Climatic factors control crop distribution and production in the south of Siberia ... Слайд 1 Author:

Berries crop production (c/ha)(R2 = 0.48)

Page 18: An agroclimatic potential in southern Siberia in a ... · PDF file•Climatic factors control crop distribution and production in the south of Siberia ... Слайд 1 Author:

Grain crop production (c/ha) in 2010 and 2080 (A2 scenario)

Climatic potential

Soil* potential

Climatic potential

Soil* potential

2010 2080

* Soil potential (soils suitable for crops) is limited by soils of the southern taiga

Grain crop production may increase from 20 to 35 c/ha in 2080

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Silage crop production (c/ha)in 2010 and 2080 (A2 scenario)

Climatic potential

Soil* potential

Climatic potential

Soil* potential

2010 2080

* Soil potential is limited by steppe, forest-steppe, and southern taiga soils suitable for crops

Silage crop production may increase from 300 to 600 c/ha in 2080

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Potato crop production (c/ha)in 2010 and 2080 (A2 scenario)

Climatic potential

Soil* potential

Climatic potential

Soil* potential

2010 2080

* Soil potential is limited by steppe, forest-steppe, and southern taiga soils suitable for crops

Potato crop production may increase from 100 to 200 c/ha at 2080

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Berries crop production (c/ha) in 2010 and 2080 (A2 scenario)

Climatic potential

Soil* potential

Climatic potential

Soil* potential

2010 2080

* Soil potential is limited by steppe, forest-steppe, and southern taiga soils suitable for crops

Berries crop production may increase from 10 to 60 c/ha at 2080

Page 22: An agroclimatic potential in southern Siberia in a ... · PDF file•Climatic factors control crop distribution and production in the south of Siberia ... Слайд 1 Author:

Conclusions

• By 2010, summers became warmer 1°С in the north and by 1-2°С in the south; precipitation increased by 10-20%;

• 40% of Siberia is predicted to be climatically suitable for agriculture at the end of the century although potential croplands would be limited by proper soil conditions;

• Climatic factors control crop distribution and production in the south of Siberia (R2 = 0.2-0.7)

• Crop production may twofold increase as climate warms during the century;

• Traditional crops (grain, potato) could be gradually shifted as far as 400 km northwards (about 50 km per decade) and new crops (corn, apricot, grape) may be introduced in the very south depending on winter conditions and may necessitate irrigation.