your name social science applications for weather enterprise research laura myers, phd center for...

Your Name

Social Science Applications for

Weather Enterprise Research

Laura Myers, PhDCenter for Advanced Public Safety

The University of Alabama Twitter: @drlauramyers

Email: laura.myers@ua.edu

Service Assessments and Impact Studies

•April 27th, 2011•Joplin, MO, 2011•Hurricane Irene, 2011•Derecho, 2012•Superstorm Sandy, 2012•Moore and El Reno tornadoes, 2013•January 2014 snow events in Al and GA•Spring 2015 floods

Houston, TX May 2015

Alabama: April 27, 2011

Joplin, Missouri 2011

Sandy

Outcomes• Warning modalities• Lead time and impacts/messaging• Secondary confirmation• Calls to action• Impact of uncertain and unique events• Complex events• Consistency• Simplification• Visualization/graphics

Winter Weather in the South

January 2014 Dusting Birmingham, AL

IMPACTS

January 2014 Dusting Atlanta, GA

Understanding the Warning

Warning-89%Watch-60%Advisory-41%

Why?

Above Ground ShelterMoore, OK

Sheltering Issues

Dear Laura

5 minutes remaining

Sincerely,

Jimmy and Daphne

Calls to Action• Risk communication• Crisis communication

– Tone/seriousness/message

– Impacts– Outlooks/Lead time– Watches and

warnings– Calls to action

Visual Cues/Secondary Confirmations

Informal Communications

Availability Bias• Draw on similar examples or experiences.

• Underestimation!!!!

• Overestimation!!!!

• 9-11 Effect

Prepared!

Optimism Bias• Always look on the bright side of life.

• About 80% of us!!!!

• Only marginally adjust when told it could happen.

• Fatalities result from optimism bias.

• Overestimate power of weather technology.

Leveraging Cognitive Bias

Simplification• Make the risk more real.

Contact Information• Dr. Laura Myers

• Center for Advanced Public Safety

• The University of Alabama

• Email: laura.myers@ua.edu

• Twitter: @drlauramyers