validate - a nationwide dynamic travel demand model for germany peter vortisch, volker waßmuth, ptv...

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Validate - A Nationwide Dynamic Travel

Demand Model for Germany Peter Vortisch, Volker Waßmuth, PTV AG, Germany

2© PTV AG 2007

VALIDATE – A Transport Model for Germany

> A nationwide model for Germany(82 million residents)

> Hourly volumes on roads

> Should use as many public (or commercial) digital data as possible

> Should be easy to update

> Applications

> Regional and nationwide forecasts

> Traffic volumes for the set up of billboards

> Travel time estimation for navigation systems

3© PTV AG 2007

> Representing Germany and the surrounding European countries

> 1.4 million links

> About 7.000 traffic zones

> 9 trip purposes

> 21 person groups

> auto and truck traffic

> quasi-dynamic assignment(time-of-day volumes)

VALIDATE at a glance

4© PTV AG 2007

Road Network Processing

> Initial German Navteq network consists of ca. 6 million links

> Removing minor roads

> Generalization: removing two-leg node

> Automated, reversible and repeatable process

> Mapping of Navteq attributes to assignment relevant attributes

> Adding a reduced European network

> Finally 1.4 million links

5© PTV AG 2007

Traffic Zones

> ca. 10,000 residents per zone

> 5 to 12 connectors per zone

> Finally 7,000 zones(refinement to 10,000 ongoing)

6© PTV AG 2007

Land Use Data

> National and regional population statistics

> 85,000 market analysis zones

> commercially available

> Inhabitants

> Employment by industry

> Buying power

> Additionally

> schools, universities

> special attractors(fun parks etc.)

7© PTV AG 2007

Survey data

German nationwide travel behavior surveys

> MiD 2002 (“Mobility in Germany”)

> 62,000 persons

> 183,000 trips

> SrV (2003)

> 34,000 personsMobility of all and of mobile person

2,98 2,93

3,24 3,25 3,243,04

3,47 3,453,62 3,65 3,69 3,62

84,0

88,989,189,4

84,985,8

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

5,0

1982 1987 1991 1994 1998 2003

trip

s p

er p

erso

n a

nd

day

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

70,0

80,0

90,0

100,0

per

cen

tag

e o

f m

ob

ile

per

son

en

Trips all person Trips mobile person Percentage mobile pers.

Modal Split absolute (without walk < 5 min)

1,29 1,15 1,20 1,10 1,010,84

0,290,28 0,30

0,330,34

0,39

0,800,78 0,60

0,510,52

0,48

0,590,72

1,10 1,32 1,43

1,34

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

1982 1987 1991 1994 1998 2003

Tri

ps

pe

r p

ers

on

an

d d

ay

walk bike PuT PrT

8© PTV AG 2007

No. of car trips for different purposes

Home - Work 18.1 million

Home - Business 6.5 million

Home - Shopping 12.0 million

Home - Other 20.5 million

Work - Home 13.1 million

Business - Home 8.9 million

Shopping - Home 13.9 million

Other - Home 21.7 million

Other - Other 27.6 million

Total: 142.2 million

> trip generation by the EVA-Model (Prof. Lohse, University of Dresden)

> simultaneous destination and mode choice

9© PTV AG 2007

Regional distribution of trips

No of trips / km²

10© PTV AG 2007

Road Traffic Assignment (24 h, static)

RGap = 0.005 after 12 h computing time

11© PTV AG 2007

Calibration of the model

> 2000 permanent counting points from BAST (Federal institute for roads)

> additional survey points from different sources

> % RMSE = 23%

12© PTV AG 2007

Validation: Mean Trip distances

Trip purpose mean trip distance mean trip distanceofficial statistics Validate

work 15,3 km 15.3 kmbusiness trip 32,9 km 31.8 kmshopping 10,6 km 10.7 kmother 20,8 km 20.3 kmtotal 16,9 km 17,0 km

13© PTV AG 2007

Time-of-Day Trip Demand

Monday

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

9.00%

10.00%

0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00

other - otherother - homehome - othershopping - homehome - shoppingwork - homehome - workbusiness - homehome - business

14© PTV AG 2007

Time-of-day (quasi-dynamic) assignment

ADT assignment peak hour (7 a.m. – 8 a.m.)

> method similar to the Duration based static assignment presented by David Pickworth

15© PTV AG 2007

Result: Time-of-day traffic volumes

(video)

16© PTV AG 2007

Validation: Comparision of volume time profiles

(video sequence of 100 count locations)

17© PTV AG 2007

Application: Traffic volumes in Germany 2020

ACATECH forecast 2020:

> Mileage (private cars)

+ 20 % (+30% on highways)

> Mileage (HGV)

+ 34% (+45% on highways)

> Mileage (all vehicles)

+ 21% (+33% on highways)

compared to 2002

increasedecrease

18© PTV AG 2007

Application: Impact Studies

Example:Effect of Toll on the A4 (Eisenach)

19© PTV AG 2007

Application: Accessibility depending on day and time

Access

Mon 10 a.m.

green: < 1:00 h

red: >3:00 h

20© PTV AG 2007

Validate Network UK 11/2006

Directional Links 630708 Zones 8105Connectors 29531

21© PTV AG 2007

Thank you for your attention !

PTV Planung Transport Verkehr AG, 76131 Karlsruhe

WWW.PTV.DE

Contact infomation:peter.vortisch@ptv.devolker.wassmuth@ptv.de