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WW Materials Market Forecast & Roadmaps
CMC Conference 2018 Lita Shon-Roy President / CEO Karey Holland
TECHCET/MegaFluid Systems April 2018
www.Techcet.com info@Techcet.com
Analyze, Prepare & Move Forward
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Disclaimer: This presentation represents the interpretation and analysis of information generally available to the public or released by responsible agencies or individuals. Data was obtained from sources considered reliable. However, accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. This report contains information generated by Techcet by way of primary and secondary market research methods.
A Semiconductor Materials Markets & Supply Chain Advisory Firm
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For more info go to : www.cmcfabs.org
TECHCET started in 2000 to support the CMC hosted by Sematech / ISMI and the materials supply chain.
Supporting the CMC / SEMATECH for > 15 years
CMCFabs now includes: Broadcom Cypress Infineon Intel GlobalFoundries Micron NXP Samsung Sematech ST Microelectronics Texas Instruments TowerJazzPanasonic & Other tbd
A Fab Centric Organization
Outline TECHCET’s MegaTrends & Drivers o China o WW Economy
WW Materials Trends – Wafers / Mix
Materials Roadmap
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WW Materials Trends Update
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For more information on TECHCET’s Wafer reports please go to www.techcet.com
TECHCET MegaTrends Two key drivers of materials Growth: o Legacy (> 65nm)
• IoT / Consumer
o Leading Edge • Big Data and AI
China a market disrupter / game changer
Economies - Huge influencing factor
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MegaTrends Details Legacy Fabs producing devices 150/200mm are at maximum capacity and continue to grow o 150 mm wafers saw a huge growth in 2017/2016 of > 30% o 200 mm healthy growth constrained by availability 6.5%
45% of all devices are 65nm and larger nodes
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65nm 90nm 130nm 150-180 nm 0.25-0.80 um 1-3um 4-20 um
Analog/Mixed Signal Discrete/Diode/Rectifier/Thryristor/Other Discrete/LED Discrete/Opto
Discrete/Power LED Logic/MCU/MPU/LSISystem/Other Logic/Opto
Logic/SOI MEMORY/DRAM Memory/Flash-1DNAND Memory/Flash-3D NAND
Memory/MRAM MEMS (Sensors?) MEMS/Opto MEMS/RF
MEMS/SOI
40M
20M
Source: TECHCET, SEMI
Legacy Device Mix growing 6-7%/yr (MSI)
Logic/ MCU’s
Analog/ MixSig
Discrete Devices- various types
Discrete Devices- various types
China China is becoming a market disrupter - coming on strong o Huge government & private investments driving new fab growth
• Phase I: $21B (65% to be allotted for IC mfg) Population of up and coming consumers the big carrot -> 1.4B people
• 20 new 200 mm fabs being build 2017-2019 o China makes ~16% of the chips they consume o Major share of raw materials markets o Chip trade balance will be impacted by these fabs looking to sell
Tariffs on products imported from China and those exported from China will continue to be a concern. o Tariffs - a concern for buyer and sellers
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China’s influence on the Metals & Minerals China’s raw materials resources will be the limiting gate for metals/sputter target production as China’s economy further expands
China domestic raw materials sources of fluorspar, phosphor rock continuing concerns. o Anhydrous hydrofluoric acid price showed a sharp rise in the first half of
2017 in China. The average price increased from 6,366 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 11,090 yuan/ton at the end of June, up 74.19%.
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From TECHCET’s Critical Materials Report™ on Sputter Targets and Wet Chemicals
China Supplies X % of WW Supply
Consume Y% of WW Supply
Major semi-raw material supply
country
Aluminum 54% 63% Various
Titanium 33% 63% China
Tungsten 82% 48% China
Rare Earths 82% Nd China
MegaTrends Details – Leading Edge (< 45nm)
Logic devices MSI growing at 6% CAGR (2017-2022)
Memory growth (DRAM/NAND) – 3D device ramps will continue to accelerate materials growth at 6.5% CAGR
EUV materials challenges and opportunities
Novel materials not expected until 5nm or later
China – 13 new 300mm fabs coming on by 2019
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How long can I ride this wave?
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GDP Growth Expected to Moderate
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China
US Germany Japan
The Market is hot but will it last?
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Source: US Congressional Budget Office’s June 2017 report, An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2017 to 2027. www.cbo.gov/publication/52801 and TECHCET
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Perc
enta
ge C
hang
e Yr
/Yr
$B U
SD
US Real GDP
Billions of 2009 dollars Percentage change, annual rate
Outline TECHCET’s MegaTrends & Drivers o China o WW Economy
WW Materials Trends – Wafers / Mix
Materials Roadmap
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0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Q114 Q214 Q314 Q414 Q115 Q215 Q315 Q415 Q116 Q216 Q316 Q416 Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417
1000
WSP
M s
hipm
ents
Wafer Shipments by Diameter
300mm 200mm <150mm
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0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
KPSM
200mm Supply Demand
Demand 200mm Supply 200mm info@techcet.com 4/26/2018 TECHCET CA LLC Copyright 2018 all rights reserved.
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The Silicon Wafer Market: $8.7B
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S E H 30%
SUMCO 26%
Siltronic 15%
Global Wafers
17%
SK Siltron 9%
Waferworks 3%
SEH and SUMCO still remain dominant
Supply running close to supply causing leadtimes and tightness
Semiconductor Materials Market Forecast
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TECHCET Forecast 2016 2017 2018 est 2018/17
Bulk/Rare Gases $1,359 $1,450 $1,505 3.8%
Spec Gas $2,919 $3,115 $3,330 5.9%
Liquide Precursors $730 $820 $920 12.2%
Sputter Targets $540 $583 $621 6.5%
Metal Chemicals (FE) $407 $448 $491 9.6%
Wet Chemicals $1,360 $1,455 $1,550 6.5%
CMP Pads & Slurry $2,220 $2,418 $2,626 8.6%
Photoresists / Ancillaries $3,387 $3,625 $3,840 5.9%
Eqt Parts: CMP $572 $641 $714 11.4%
Eqt Parts: Si $380 $467 $560 7.1%
Eqt Parts: Quartz $803 $956 $1,003 7.0%
Eqt Parts: SiC / Ceramics $1,154 $1,245 $1,347 8.2%
Packaging Materials* $15,493 $16,252 $16,709 2.8%
Silicon Wafers $7,201 $8,710 $11,672 34.0%
Total $37,789 $41,357 $46,021 11.3%
All revenue data from TECHCET with the exception of packaging materials, which is Courtesy of TechSearch International
$14,850M
$3,580M
$16,709M
$11,672M
Filters & Foups &
containers (est)
3%
FE Materials
31%
Eq. Consuma
bles 7%
Packaging 35%
Silicon Wafers
24%
Semiconductor Materials $46B est.
Materials Markets
Bulk/Rare Gas 8%
Spec Gas 18%
Liquide Precursors
5%
Sputter Targets
3%
Metal Chemicals
(FE) 3%
Wet Chemicals
8%
CMP Pads & Slurry
14%
Photoresists / Ancillaries
21%
Eqt Parts: CMP
4%
Eqt Parts: Si 3%
Eqt Parts: Quartz
6%
Eqt Parts: SiC / Ceramics
7%
FE Materials/Components $18.4B est.
Outline TECHCET’s MegaTrends & Drivers o China o WW Economy
WW Materials Trends – Wafers / Mix
Materials Roadmap
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20nm Planar SOI Hκ/MG
22
IC Technology Roadmap Evolutions/Revolutions Note “Node” is “nm” performance, physical is GLph
3D Cross Point ReRAM & maybe others?
Non-Volatile 80-30nm features 3D NAND (BiCS, TCAT, etc.)
Non-Volatile 1X & 1Z nm Shrink Planar NAND
Non-Volatile <10nm CNT? PCM
10nm transistor FinFET w/ Co
14nm TriGate 14/16nm FinFET-STI
DRAM 32-28nm Vertical Capacitors
Continue DRAM Shrink w/ MPU Honey comb cell + Air-gap spacer
DRAM 26-16nm HκMG + Si Fin
Charge Trap Flash in Vertical Plane also called 3D or V-NAND
3D/V-NAND Extend >5 yrs (longer than first expected)
16 to 512? Layers
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 www.Techcet.com
2015
5nm Gate all Around
2021
7nm transistor FinFET
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Mid 1990’s Early 2000’s 2010 2013 2018 Mid- 1980’s 2021
AirGap
CoWP Cap
Rapidly Increasing Changes Required to Shrink Logic & RAM
CMP Ox & W
Cu Wiring
300mm Wafers
ALD High k
193nm Litho
Litho Immersion
248nm Litho
Al Replacement Gate & Al CMP
Phase Shift Litho
PDSOI
STI & CMP
ALD Barrier Metals
Lower k + porous Low k
Dbl Pattern
Litho
EUV Litho
TFET
Graphene
Si Nanowires
Self Assembly
CNT
350nm 250nm 180nm 130nm 90nm 65nm 45nm 32nm 22nm 14nm 10nm 7nm 5nm 3nm?
4/30/2018
Fin Transistor
ETSOI
Co CVD/ ALD/ EP
III-V on Si (InP, InAlAs,
InGaAs)
Ge Epi channel
New Metal Barriers &
conductors? S&D
Raised
Strained Si (Ge)
CVD/ALD W NiPtSi
Low k
Tri/Quad Pattern
Litho CFET VFET
Nanowire FET
BEOL Materials
Process Technology
FEOL Materials
Litho Technology
Color Key:
23
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Summary & Assessment China growing semiconductor competency disrupting the market landscapte
Geopolitics will continue to cause strain between US and China resulting in higher tariffs on both sides
2018 expected to be a good year although 4Q2018 growth may start to moderate – caution recommended to prevent excessive inventory build
Legacy Materials growth in parallel to Leading edge
‘New’ Materials will continue to enable advanced devices o novel materials <5nm o cobalt at 7nm o EUV materials opportunities
The market landscape is changing!
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TECHCET’s Critical Materials Reports™ & Services
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25
TECHCET’s Services
Training: Materials Markets & Technology
Custom Consulting Projects
Critical Materials Council (CMC)
CMC Fabs Membership
CMC Associate Membership
Critical Materials Reports 2017-18
1 CMP Consumables (Pads/Slurry)
2 CMP Equipt Consumables (filters, conditioners, etc.)
3 CVD /ALD Hi K Precursors
4 CVD DIELECTRIC Precursors 5 Device Trends & Materials Requirements 6 Equipt Components –Quartz*
7 Equipt Components -Ceramics & SiC*
8 Gases - Electronic Specialty & Bulk
9 Gases - Neon / Xenon
10 Metal Plating Chemicals 11 Photoresist, Ancillaries & Extension Materials
12 Targets
13 Silicon Wafers
14 Wet Chem & Specialty Cleans (incl. CMP)
15 China Market Brief: Electronics Market Trends*
Dean Freeman – Sr. Technology Analyst • Gartner Group, Novellus/Lam, WJ, Texas Instruments
H.T. Jeong – Korea Technical Accounts Manager • Renotek, Seojin Electronics
Bruce Adams – Sr. Market Analyst • Matheson Gas, Air Products, & Chemicals, Honeywell
Yu Bibby, Ph. D. – Sr. Technology Analyst • UV Global, ipCapital Group, Wilkes University
Kuang-Han Ke – Sr. Market Analyst • Gransystems, Applied Materials
Jonas, Sundqvist, Ph.D. – Sr. Technology Analyst • Fraunhofer, Quimonda
►Dan P. Tracy – Sr. Market Analyst • SEMI, Rose Associates,
Techcet Group Analysts (& Experience)
►Lita Shon-Roy – President / CEO • Rasirc/Matheson Gas, IPEC/Athens, Air Products, Rockwell/
Brooktree, Hughes Aircraft
►Karey Holland, Ph.D. – Chief Technical Officer • MegaFluid Systems, FEI, NexPlanar, IPEC, Motorola, IBM
►Ed Korczynski – Director, Marketing / Sr. Analyst • Solid State Technology, Intermolecular, Nanomarkets, Applied
Materials
►Diane Scott, Ph.D. – Manager, Technical Accounts, Sr. Technology Analyst
• NexPlanar, CMP Solutions, Rohm & Haas / Dow, 3M
► Tim Dyer – Sr. Technology Analyst • Elcon, Matsci, Morgan Ceramics, IPEC/Speedfam
Terry Francis – Sr. Technology Analyst • Matheson Gases, Applied Materials, Air Products
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Thank you! www.TECHCET.com
ww.cmcfabs.org
Lshonroy@Techcet.com +1-480-382-8336, x 101
www.Techcet.com
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