world meteorological organization working together in weather, climate and water wmo operational...

World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water

WMO Operational network and technical capabilities for provision of Meteorological, Hydrological, and Climate Services

7.2 “RSMCs, RCCs, Drought Monitoring”

P. Chen, L. Malone & K. Kolli, R. Stefanski

First meeting of the Task Team on Meteorological Services for improved humanitarian planning and response

Geneva, 31 Aug. – 2 Sep. 2010

www.wmo.int

WMO

Outline WMO

1. WMO Meteorological Operations

2. WMO Global Data Processing and Forecasting System -

“GDPFS”

1. Enhancing Warning Services through “SWFDP”

2. Regional Climate Centres (RCC)

3. Drought Monitoring operations

Numerical simulations of the atmosphere

“In general, the public is not aware that our daily weather forecasts start out as initial value problems on the major national weather services supercomputers. Numerical weather prediction provides the basic guidance for weather forecasting beyond the first few hours.”

- Eugenia Kalnay (2009)

WMO operational networks

NMHSs deliver analyses, forecast and early warning services

The GDPFS: Global, Regional Specialized Met. Centres (RSMC, RCC), and National Centres

189 NMHSs: satellites, land, ships, buoys, and aircraft contribute to Global Observing every day

Global Telecom with Regional Hubs – becoming the WMOInformation System

WMO Global Data-Processing and Forecasting

System (GDPFS)

“Through its global network of operational meteorological centres … makes available to Members weather and climate analyses, forecasts and predictions, to enable Members to provide … high-quality predictions and forecasts, warning and information services …”

• Outputs of the NWP Systems, including EPS, LRF, dispersion modelling, ranging from very-short-range (<12 hr), to seasonal predictions

• GDPFS supports many Services, through WMO programmes, and relevant programmes of other International Organizations, e.g. ICAO, UN-OCHA, WHO, UNESCO/IOC, UNOSAT, IAEA, CTBTO, others

GPCGPCLCLC

RCCRCC

GPCGPCLCLC

RCCRCC

RSMCRSMCRSMCRSMC

WMCWMCWMCWMC

RSMCRSMCRSMCRSMC

NMC

NMC

NMC

WMO Global Data-Processing and Forecasting SystemA global network of operational

Global, Regional, National Meteorological Centres

Nesting Nesting limited-area NWPlimited-area NWP

Nesting Nesting limited-area NWPlimited-area NWP

Global NWPGlobal NWPGlobal NWPGlobal NWP

Regional NWP andRegional NWP andGuidanceGuidance

Regional NWP andRegional NWP andGuidanceGuidance

Global LRFGlobal LRFGlobal LRFGlobal LRF

Regional LRFRegional LRFRegional LRFRegional LRFRCCRCCRCCRCC

Global ATMGlobal ATMGlobal ATMGlobal ATM

GDPFS relative to Meteorological Services for Disaster Risk Reduction

Operational infrastructure of National Meteorological Centres, Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres (RSMC), Regional Climate Centres (RCC)

Numerical Weather Prediction outputs for 24/7 forecasting of severe and high-impact weather

Probabilistic approach to forecasting hazardous events, e.g. use of “ensemble” products to extend the lead-time

Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project

Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) - Building Capacity

Regional approach with very positive learning experiences Enhancing the use of existing GDPFS products Regional partnership / operational framework to build

forecasting capacity and service delivery in developing countries (Srn & Ern Africa, South Pacific, SE Asia, so far)

Cascading Forecasting Process: Global NWP/EPS products tailored and provided by major

GDPFS Centres Regional guidance: RSMC (LAM, daily synthesis) through a

dedicated Web site/portal Accelerated technology transfer and ongoing on-job training Improved meteorological services (public and key sectors) Project accountability

Support to humanitarian planning and response – some considerations

• Public info vs support to decision making• Open-source vs authoritative information • 24/7 real-time services vs “morning news”• Routine vs specialized forecasts• National vs regional forecasts• Guidance vs predictions vs warnings• Coordination vs operational services• Planning vs implementation and testingOverarching: • Arrangements, quality assurance, accountability• Long-term sustainability and relevance

WMO Regional Climate Centres (RCC)

• Centres of Excellence, designated by WMO, to perform consistent, regional-scale climate functions including for prediction and monitoring

• On request of a country, an RCC could provide additional products to facilitate climate services at national level

• National-scale products and warnings will continue to be the responsibility of the NMHS

• RCCs will support consensus building and user interaction through RCOFs

• RCC will contribute to increased knowledge through development of enhanced regional focus/information, which should lead to improved confidence of users in the use of climate products

Core Functions of RCCs

• Operational activities for Long-Range Forecasting (seasonal)

• Operational activities for Climate Monitoring

• Operational data services, to support operational LRF and climate monitoring

• Training in the use of operational RCC products and services

RCC ‘Highly Recommended’ Functions

• Climate prediction and projection

• Non-operational data services

• Coordination functions

• Training and capacity building

• Research and development

GDPFS - RCCs - Status

• Designation Criteria approved by WMO EC (June 2009)• RA II (Asia)

– Beijing and Tokyo designated as RCCs (June 2009)– India, Iran, Russia and Saudi Arabia pursuing RCC

implementation in Asia• RA VI (Europe)

– Pilot phase of RCC Network launched with nodes at Moscow, Toulouse, Offenbach, Amsterdam (others identified to be contributing partners to the nodes)

• RA I (Africa)– Planning several multifunctional RCCs based on existing

regional centres (e.g.ACMAD, ICPAC, SADC-DMC).

GHACOF Products & Applications

WMO Supports Developing Countries on Drought Issues Through National and Regional Projects

Common themes for operational services:

• Modernization of NMHSs and observing networks

• Implementation of national operational multi-hazard early warning systems

• Strengthening of hazard analysis and hydro-meteorological risk assessment tools

• Strengthening NMHSs cooperation with civil protection and disaster risk management agencies

• Coordinated training and public outreach programmes

Drought Monitoring Centres (DMC) for Eastern and Southern Africa

• Established in 1989/90 with UNDP funding, WMO as Executing Agency

• Currently operational centres in Nairobi, Kenya (ICPAC), and Gaborone, Botswana (SADC) monitor drought, impact on agricultural production and issue early warnings

• Providing 10-day weather advisories, climatological summaries, Agro-Met conditions and impacts, synoptic review and weather outlooks • These centres also the focus of RCOFs for their regions

• ACMAD (Niger) also involved in drought monitoring

www.dmcsee.org

• WMO & United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) worked together to establish the Drought Management Centre for Southeastern Europe (DMCSEE) in Slovenia

• WMO, UNCCD, and OSCE also working on establishing Drought Management Center for Central Asia (DMCCA)

Gobal Producing Centres of Long Range Forecasts (GPCs)

Regional Climate Centres (RCCs)

RCC Network Nodes (Pilot)

Washington

Montreal

Exeter ECMWF

Toulouse

Moscow

Pretoria

Melbourne

Beijing

Seoul Tokyo

LC-SVSLRF: Lead Centre for Standardized Verification System for Long Range ForecastsLC-LRFMME: Lead Centre for Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble

LC-SVSLRF

LC-LRFMME

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres with Activity Specialization

Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres with Geographical Specialization

ACMAD

ICPAC

SADC-DMC

DMCSEE

CIIFEN

Regional climate institutions with strong WMO support

Sand & Dust Storm Warning & Assessment System Centres

Monsoon Activity Centres

WMO Centres, the layout so far……

CPTEC

Advances in Weather Forecasts

World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water

WMO Operational network and technical capabilities for provision of Meteorological, Hydrological, and Climate Services

Thank You !!

GDPFS: pchen@wmo.int asoares@wmo.int

RCC: kkolli@wmo.int lmalone@wmo.int

Drought monitoring: rstefanski@wmo.int

www.wmo.int

WMO