world energy outlook and the prospects for sustainable sources international symposium on solar...
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World Energy Outlook and theProspects for Sustainable Sources
International Symposium on Solar Energy from Space
September 8-10, 2009 Ontario Science Centre, Toronto, Canada
Dr. R. Bryan Erb
Messages
Energy demand will continue to grow stronglyAlternatives to “Business as Usual” (BAU) can
limit emissions to acceptable levelsRenewable sources will dominate Investments need to be largeStrong environmental policies will be requiredSpace Solar Power will be competitive
2R. Bryan ErbSPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009
OutlineConcernsDrivers for energy needsCurrent world energy situationEnergy trendsApproaches to stabilizing GHG emissions
Decarbonizing fossil fuels Expanding the use of renewables
Renewables that will be significant InvestmentsSpace Solar Power will be competitive
3R. Bryan ErbSPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009
ConcernsThe World Energy Outlook – Troubling! Why?
Continuing BAU will aggravate climate impacts Alternatives to present sources will be challenging
to implement at the needed scale Consumption will grow as population increases
and must grow to help those in energy poverty Food and fiber production must be increased
without damaging lands and biota Global energy infrastructure is so vast and
complex that change can come only slowly
4R. Bryan ErbSPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009
Drivers For Energy NeedsPopulation
Currently 6.5 Billion Expect 10 B by 2050 and 11.6 B by 2100
Economic activity Gross world product currently $38 Trillion Expect $75 B by 2050 and $200+ B by 2100
Efficiency of energy utilizationDesire to reduce inequities in global energy
availability
5R. Bryan ErbSPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009
The Current World Energy Situation
Will be described by: Total quantity of energy produced and its
distribution among major economic regions Level of economic activity supported by this
quantity of energy Sources of energy Resource availability Environmental implications
6R. Bryan ErbSPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009
Quantity of Energy and Economic Activity
World Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) in 2006: 15,600 GWth
Gross World Product: $38 Trillion USPopulation: 6.5 BillionTPES per person: 2.4 KWth
Carbon emissions: 7,600 MtC
7R. Bryan ErbSPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009
TPES per Person by Region
KWth
8R. Bryan ErbSPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009
Primary Energy Sources - 2004
9R. Bryan ErbSPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009
Distribution of the 0.5% of “Others”
10R. Bryan ErbSPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009
Resource Availability & Environmental Implications
Near Term Resources:“There are sufficient reserves of most types of energy resources to last at least several decades at current rates of use” … IPCC
Environment: A major and growing issue
11R. Bryan ErbSPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009
Energy TrendsProjections are based on the scenarios of the
World Energy Council/IIASA and extend to 2100Drivers are:
Population – 10.06 Billion in 2050, 11.65 by 2100 Economic Activity - $75 to 100 B depending on
scenario Technology choices - especially acceptability of coal
and nuclearThree broad scenarios – A, high growth; B,
“business as usual”; C, ecologically driven12R. Bryan ErbSPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009
Energy History and Projections
GWth
13R. Bryan ErbSPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009
Representative Scenarios
Three of the WEC/IIASA scenarios chosen to illustrate a range of possible energy futures:
B - BAUA2 - highest emissions scenarioC1 - least use of nuclear
14R. Bryan ErbSPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009
Environmental OutlookOnly the “Ecologically-Driven” scenarios
reduce emissions significantlyNet emissions of energy-related Carbon are
reduced to tolerable levels by 2100Atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2100
stabilizes in the range of 450 to 550 ppmThis concentration should limit warming to
two to three degrees C Each of these has its own particular makeup
of energy sources15R. Bryan ErbSPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009
Energy Share by Source - B
16R. Bryan ErbSPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009
Energy Share by Source - A2
Year17R. Bryan ErbSPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009
Energy Share by Source – C1
18R. Bryan ErbSPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009
Outlook for
Resource
Availability
WEC projects adequate resource availability over the next 100 years, but foresees that a shift in sources will be driven by: Environmental impacts Economic recoverability of the resources
19R. Bryan ErbSPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009
Net Carbon Emissions from Energy
20R. Bryan ErbSPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009
Approaches To StabilizingGHG Emissions
There are two fundamental approaches on the energy front: Reducing the impact of fossil fuels, i.e.,
“Decarbonizing” them Expanding the use of renewables or nuclear
Note: there are other ways of influencing climate, including various forms of
Geo/Climate engineering
21R. Bryan ErbSPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009
Decarbonizing Fossil FuelsApproaches include:
Shifting to lower carbon fuels, e.g., gas vs. coal Improving the efficiency of use of such fuels Capturing and sequestering the carbon (CCS):
“upstream” in the supply process, or “downstream” in the utilization process
These measures are necessary but not sufficient – major expansion in the supply from renewable sources is vital
22R. Bryan ErbSPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009
RenewablesRenewable sources include: hydro,
biomass, solar, wind, geothermal and various forms of ocean/tidal/wave energy
Each has its own peculiar advantages and drawbacks
Only some can be exploited at a scale and in a time frame that will make a significant contribution
23R. Bryan ErbSPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009
Sources Viewed as LimitedHydro – only modest scope for expansionBiomass – important for fuels, but limited by
competition for landGeothermal - locally important, but not a
large-scale source unless the “Engineered Geothermal Systems” approach can be developed successfully
Ocean/tidal/wave - resources are immense yet diffuse and expensive to exploit
24R. Bryan ErbSPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009
Nuclear OutlookNuclear suffers from concerns over public
acceptance, final waste management and proliferation risk
Little capacity is being added in the OECD countries and some is being removed
However, China, Russia and India have ambitious programs
More widespread use may be needed to meet emissions targets
25R. Bryan ErbSPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009
Significant Renewables: Solar and Wind
Total energy available from these sources is immense, but the energy density is low
Product is largely electricity, the most useful form of energy
The C1 scenario projects that these sources, along with biomass for fuels, will be the dominant sources of the future
26R. Bryan ErbSPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009
Electricity from Solar and Wind
Year
TWhr
27R. Bryan ErbSPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009
The Matter of Intermittency
It is critical to recognize that solar and wind are intermittent sources and can be used immediately by the power grid only to the extent of 20 - 25% of production
Solar and wind can be more fully exploited to meet base load needs if storage can be provided or if the electricity is used to generate hydrogen
28R. Bryan ErbSPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009
Electricity from Solar and Wind:Extent of Immediate Use
TotalElectricity
Electricity from Solar + Wind
29R. Bryan ErbSPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009
Cost Impact of IntermittencySolar and wind installations with storage (to serve
base load needs) will be more expensive than those providing peak power
Capital costs, by mid-century, of such plants is estimated at ≈ $7000 per KWe
Incremental investment to accommodate this intermittency is estimated at ≈ $1T per year beginning around 2040 (just over 1% of GWP)
30R. Bryan ErbSPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009
Energy Investments
Recent capital expenditures ≈ 1% of GWP
Implementing energy scenarios that reduce emissions significantly will be more costly
Stern Report documents cost estimates at 1% of GWP by 2050 to stabilize atmospheric concentration of CO2 at 500-550ppm
WEC notes costs unlikely to exceed 2% of GWP
31R. Bryan ErbSPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009
Outlook for Space Solar Power
Capital costs for Space Solar Power installations are estimated to be on the order of $4000 per KWe
If terrestrial installations for solar and wind providing base load power run $7,000 per KWe and a Trillion dollars a year is needed to build the needed capacity, then Space Solar Power should be very competitive
32R. Bryan ErbSPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009
An Assessment Implementing an energy future such as C1 will
be extremely challenging, requiring: Enormous investments Strong environmental policies Continuing international cooperation for decades
Consequences of failing to follow such a path: Serious climate impacts or Expansion of nuclear supply and/or Resort to more use of fossil fuels
33R. Bryan ErbSPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009
What Could Change This Picture?
Cheaper ways to store electricityPower grids of international scaleEconomic means of exploiting geothermal or
ocean energySuccess in exploiting nuclear fusion
34R. Bryan ErbSPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009
Recommendations
Promote a better general understanding of the world energy situation
Support all plausible sources of sustainable and clean energy, especially Space Solar Power
Support policy actions that reduce emissions, importantly, putting a price on carbon
Support policy actions that improve efficiencyStart now
35R. Bryan ErbSPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009
Take Away
Energy demand will continue to grow stronglyAlternatives to “Business as Usual” can limit
emissions to acceptable levelsRenewable sources will dominate Investments need to be largeStrong environmental policies will be requiredSpace Solar Power will be competitive
36R. Bryan ErbSPACE Canada, Sept. 8, 2009
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