workshop on population projections

Workshop on Population Projections

29 October-2 November 2012Pretoria, South Africa

Session 1: Introduction

• Introduction to the workshop.• The need for and the utility of population

projections• Population projections for Africa: Background

and challenges.• Getting ready: Software, data, internet

Introduction to the workshop.Agenda of the workshop• The workshop has 10 Sessions, most of which are presentations combined with

hands-on exercises and interaction with the trainers and among participants. There will be time for participants to work on projects and exercises. There will be an evaluation of the workshop by participants at the last day of the workshop.1. Session 1: Introduction2. Session 2: Establishing the Base Population3. Session 3: Background and First Steps4. Session 4: Projecting the levels of mortality, fertility and migration5. Session 5: Projecting the age patterns of mortality, fertility and

migration6. Session 6: Introduction to Population Projections7. Session 7: Population projections for national populations8. Session 8: Population projections for sub-national, sectoral or small

populations9. Session 10: Final Matters

The need for and the utility of population projections

• The future is unknowable…Why population projection?

• Who needs/uses population Projections?• Producers of population projections

The future is unknowable…Why population projection?

Planning for people’s needs• Planning for education

• Planning for health system: Doctors, nurses, hospital beds

• Planning for old age: aging

• Planning for employment: demographic dividend

• Planning for infrastructure: Roads, Airports,

• Planning for housing: urbanization

But: We know some basic demographic trends

Demographic processes are long-term• Lasting impact of past and current changes

• Momentum

No equilibrium yet• There are profound changes going on in all countries of the

world

Demographic transition as guiding principle• Countries move from high fertility and mortality to low

fertility and mortality – still in progress in many developing countries

The demographic transition animated

1 %

2 %

3 %

4 %

0 %

Growth rate

Transformation of age structures:=> From pyramid to (almost) rectangle.=> From young populations to older populations

World Population Ageing

Transformation of survival:=> From early deaths to late deaths.

Changing survival

What population projections can reveal

Planning for Education

Nigeria

Population growth rate

Aging

Urbanization

Urbanization

Who needs, who uses population Projections?

Main users• Governments (ministries of education, health,

planning, etc)• Regional and local governments• Private sector (demand, supply)

Who needs, who uses Population Projections?

Major area

Base data Total with projections

Total without projections

Total 1990-1994

1995-2004

Africa 7 23 30 26 56

Asia 2 15 17 33 50

Europe 2 30 32 16 48

Latin America and the Caribbean

4 22 24 22 46

Northern America 0 4 4 1 5

NUMBER OF COUNTRIES THAT HAVE CONDUCTED NATIONAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS

Producers of population projections

• Governments: NSO, other national institutions• Regional organizations: EUROSTAT, CELADE

(UN Regional Commission)• International organizations: UNPD (WPP, WUP

biennially)• Others: Private Sector, international research

institutions (IIASA)

Population projections for Africa: Background and challenges

Challenges: • Slow fertility transitions• HIV/AIDS, neglected tropical diseases• Urbanization• Data

Slow fertility transitions

Population growth

Aging

Urbanization

Urbanization

Urbanization

Urbanization

Data

The good news• Censuses are regularly held in almost all

countries in the world.• The 2010 Round of Censuses has so far

enumerated 88% of the world’s population in 184 censuses (As of 1 August 2012)http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/sources/census/2010_PHC/censusclockmore.htm

Data

The bad news• Vital registration is still a problem in most

developing countries. • Not just a challenge for professional

statisticians, it is a challenge to human rights• The scandal of invisibility: Little progress since

the 1970s.

WHO region

Deaths Births

1965–

1974

1975–

1984

1985–

1994

1995–

2004

1965–

1974

1975–

1984

1985–

1994

1995–

2004

Africa 2 4 2 7 7 7 9 5

Americas 69 66 64 61 58 55 53 53

Eastern Mediterranean 17 21 15 1 21 25 17 42

Europe 62 61 92 86 95 94 93 92

South-East Asia 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Western Pacific 12 11 10 13 12 14 13 18

Total 27 25 28 26 33 31 28 30

Source: Mahapatra et al. 2007, table 2

Percentage of population living in countries with complete civil registration systems

Analysis: Vital registration

Surveys or Civil Registration?

Getting ready: Software, data, internet

• Software used in the workshop• Textbooks, manuals• Data sources• Additional tools and data

Software used in the workshop

– Projection software• RUPEX v. 1.46

• Spectrum 4.5

– Demographic analysis tools• MORTPAK v. 4.2.

• PASEX

– General software• Excel, Word, PowerPoint etc.

Textbooks, manuals

– Siegel, Swanson 2004

– Preston et al. 2000

– Arriaga (1994 and later)

– United Nations Manuals

– Software Manuals

US Census Bureau: Arriaga

Textbooks

Data sources

– National data

– United Nations data (UNSD, UNPD)

– Other

UN Data sources: UNSD

http://data.un.org/

UN Data sources: UNPD

http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/index.htm

Additional tools and data

– Demographic software• PADIS

http://www.padis-int.org/index.php?c=main&a=view&id=130&lan=en

• Applied Demographic Toolbox• http://www.demog.berkeley.edu/~eddieh/toolbox.html

– Demographic data • Human Mortality Database [www.mortality.org]• Human Fertility Database [www.humanfertility.org/]• Human Life-Table Database [www.lifetable.de/]• INDEPTH [www.indepth-network.org/]