wind energy eskom mohsin seedat 2010
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Wind Energy
Presented By: Mohsin Seedat
15 July 2010
2011/01/21 2
Structure of Presentation
• Strategic benefits of Wind
• Project SERE Background
• Global Wind Market
• Wind Technology Progression
• Africa’s share of the global wind market
• Overall growth drivers
• Investment Attractiveness
• R&D in WTG designs
• OEMs - business system and supplier relationships
• Case Study: Germany
• Case Study :Germany (Incentives)
• What is required to nurture Wind in RSA
• Value adding Localisation Opportunities
• Q&A
Security of Supply
• Wind is a Renewable Energy resource
• No Dependency on Fossil Fuels
• No Exposure to Fuel Supply Risks
• No Exposure to Fuel Price Volatility
Environmental
• Non Polluting & Non Consuming Resource
• Zero C02, S0x, N0x and other atmospheric pollutants
• Zero Water Consumption
• No Waste products (i.e. ash, dust, waste water, spent fuel)
• No Waste Disposal Cost
Financial
• Zero Short Run Marginal Cost
• Very Low decommissioning and rehabilitation costs
• Low O & M costs
Transmission • Coastal Location, closer to load centre resulting in reduced line losses
Strategic Benefits of Wind
2011/01/21 4
Project SERE Background
• Eskom’s R&D research into cleaner technologies led
to the commissioning of demo wind farm (Klipheuwel)
in 2003,
• Govt released RE strategy with target of 10 000GWh
by 2013
• Favourable data and key learning's from the demo
plant coupled to independent studies by GTZ, CSIR
indicated considerable distributed potential of Wind in
South Africa,
• In 2006 Eskom Board approved 100MW Wind project
on the West coast
• As with many projects in the world, the project was
delayed due to funding constraints
• NERSA released REFIT as an incentive mechanism in
2009
• Funding approvals by the Clean Technology Fund and
other Multi Lateral Development Banks enable
resumption of the project
[Source: Tennessee Valley authority]
2011/01/21 5
Global Wind Market &Technology Progression
Growth in size of commercial
Wind Turbine Generators
Source: Garrard Hassan
Three-bladed, upwind,
variable-speed, pitch-regulated turbines currently
predominate onshore. 1.5MW de-facto standard in 2008/09
WT technology is different for offshore projects: there are
strong reasons why individual turbine size is significantly
larger, and turbines of 5 MW and more
are being aimed at this market
The principal design drivers are now grid compatibility, cost of
energy (which includes reliability), acoustic emissions, visual
appearance and suitability
for site conditions.
Global installed capacity has been increasing at an average of 35 per cent since 2005
2011/01/21 6
Africa‟ s Share of the Global Wind Market
SOURCE: GWEC
•US &
•Canada
•24
•0.8
•Latam
MEA
•0.6 •16
•China
•Pacific
•1.4
•7
•India
•RoAsia
•1.8
•48
•Europe
•50.0
•Share in global cumulative installed capacities
•Percent
Africa & Middle East: Detailed cumulative capacity by country (MW)
430
253
91
Egypt
Morocco
Iran
•:
•:
54
12
8
•Tunisia
•Cape Verde
•South Africa
•:
•:
8
5
4
Israel
Kenya
Other
•:
•:
Regional distribution of cumulative installed wind capacities globally – 2009 year end
•Total = 157900 MW
2011/01/21 7
Overall growth drivers
Key growth drivers Potential barriers to growth
•Europe • High CO2 price due to Kyoto protocol
• EU regulations and subsidy schemes
• Currently high oil and gas prices
• Ramp-down of nuclear power plants
• Public resistance against onshore turbines
• Political support for other renewable technologies
•US • Political desire for energy independence, e.g., the “fear factor” vis-à-vis Middle East
• Increasing energy demand
• Currently high oil prices
• Limited grid capacity to key wind areas
•China • Strong increase of power demand requires fast installation of new capacity
• Environmental problems/wish for “clean air”
• Will to foster strong domestic industry
• Overall weak transmission capacity
• Weak domestic industry
• Transportation issues for larger WTGs
•India • Strong increase in power demand
• Independence from highly unreliable grid
• Tax saving schemes
• Differing regulations across provinces
• Very weak grid in some areas
• Transportation issues for larger WTGs
Source: Mckinsey
2011/01/21 8
Investment Attractiveness
Wind Turbine Main Components
Source: Nordex
Wind Turbine Value Chain
Source: Mainstream
2011/01/21 11
Mainly Western OEMs - business system and supplier relationships
Rotor blades Rotor blades Gearboxes Gearboxes GeneratorsGenerators TowersTowers Controllers Controllers
Vestas Bosch Rexroth,
Hansen, Winergy,
Moventas
Vestas(Cotas),
NEG (Dancontrol)
GE Wind LM, Tecsis Winergy, Hansen,
Bosch Rexroth,
Eickhoff GE
Loher, GE DMI, Omnical,
SIAG
GE
Enercon Enercon N/A Enercon KGW, SAM Enercon
Mitsubishi Mitsubishi, TPI Ishibashi Mitsubishi Mitsubishi Mitsubishi
Vestas Weier, Elin, ABB,
LeroySomer
Vestas, NEG,
DMI,
Gamesa Ingelectric
(Gamesa)
Cantarey
Ingelectric
(Gamesa)
GamesaGamesa, LM Echesa(Gamesa)
Winergy,
Hansen
Repower Mita Technic
ReGuard
LM Winergy, Renk N/A N/A
Outsourced
Mixed mode
Insourced
Nordex GmbH Nordex
Omnical
Nordex, Mita
Technik
Nordex Winergy, Eikhoff,
Maag
Loher
Suzlon Suzlon - LM Hansen, Winergy Suzlon, Siemens Suzlon Suzlon, Mita
Technic
Siemens Wind Siemens - LM Winergy ABB Roug, KGW Siemens, KK
Electronic
Siemens Wind Siemens - LM Winergy ABB Roug, KGW Siemens, KK
Electronic
2011/01/21 12
R&D in WTG designs
2011/01/21 13
Case Study: Germany
Germany has one of the largest installed bases in
Europe, but in 2009, it had to forego its second
ranking in the world to make way for China’s blazing
growth. The German wind energy market blossomed
early in the 21st century and later growth slackened
as other regions began promoting renewables more
aggressively.
Overview
The wind technologies market has proved to be a
lucrative export business for Germany. The
presence of major wind energy companies has
further added to the country’s strength. About 85
per cent of the components manufactured are
exported to other countries, generating more than
€7.2 billion as revenues. Backed by a solid
engineering base, Germany is a haven for wind
turbine/components manufacturing companies as
an export base.
2011/01/21 14
Case Study :Germany(Incentives)
2011/01/21 15
‘Speed up approvals
processes’
NERSA, EIA
‘ Bold line of sight
renewable targets
required to provide
guidance to
industry’
„Appropriate incentives required for
development of Renewables value chain in
RSA’
‘ Simplify some of the
complex
requirements’
‘ Appropriate Incentives
for development and
production of renewable
energy’
‘Govt needs to provide
regulatory certainty for
Renewables.’
Incentives
Regulatory Framework
What is required to nurture Wind in RSA
2011/01/21 16
Value adding Localisation Opportunities
“Transforming this sector is therefore urgently needed and Suzlon believes that wind power can play a big role in helping South Africa reduce its carbon emissions and creating sustainable long term career opportunities for South Africans”,
– Mo Siddiqui, Regional Manager of Suzlon Wind Energy Africa at the Africa Utility Week, in Durban, RSA, Feb 2010
"We come in to provide technical support to consortiums trying to develop renewable energy projects" (…) "Later we could come in again as equipment suppliers." (…) There is the technical skill and capability to manufacture components for both CSP and wind in South Africa," (…) "Just about everything could be manufactured locally but it all depends on economies of scale.
"– Dion Govender , Chief Executive of Siemens Energy Southern Africa in The Star, Mar 10, 2010
"Our approach fits in well with the black economic empowerment framework. We have the technology and the partner will bring local expertise (for South Africa). We are talking to some local entities (…) Partnership is key in our growth model (…) We are particularly excited about wind"
– Jay Wileman, newly appointed regional executive at GE, in Comtex All Africa, Aug 12, 2009
Media and press releasesWind Resource Measurements
Project Development of Windfarms
Components manufacturing and servicing (+R&D)
• Turbines (tubular or other)
• Blades (carbon fibre or glass fibre)
• Control Systems
• Transformers( pad or nacelle mounted)
• Special coatings
• Pitch & Yaw motors
• Cabling
• Others…
General PM & Construction of Windfarms
Operation and Maintenance of Windfarms
Wind Turbine Maintenance (3rd party licensing)
Electric Maintenance (3rd party licensing
Remote Operation and data analysis
2011/01/21 17
Q&A
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