will north korea give up the bomb? - nti · yongbyon centrifuge facility – nov. 2010 • 2 000...
Post on 04-Jul-2020
1 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
Will North Korea give up the bomb?
Siegfried S. HeckerCenter for International Security and Cooperation
fStanford University
PIIC ConferencePIIC ConferenceBeijing, ChinaNovember 1, 2012,
Nuclear Risk Reduction Project
• Fewer nuclear weaponsFewer nuclear weapons
• Fewer fingers on the nuclear trigger
• Keep them out of hands of terrorists
Nuclear Risk Reduction Project
• Fewer nuclear weaponsFewer nuclear weapons
• Fewer fingers on the nuclear trigger• North Korea• Iran• Iran
• Keep them out of hands of terrorists
North Korea and IranDifferent paths to the bomb
Iran – US Atoms for PeaceRevolution and retreatC t d l tCovert developmentDiscovered, negotiateCivilian “peaceful” cover
DPRK - SU Peaceful AtomIndigenous “peaceful” coverIndigenous peaceful coverBreakout & freezeBreakout, arm and negotiate
Six visits helped make a technical assessment
Jan. 2004 YongbyonNov. 2006 PyongyangAug. 2005 Pyongyang
August 9, 2007, Yongbyon Feb. 14, 2008, Yongbyon
The seventh visit brought a big surprise
Feb. 27, 2009, Pyongyang
Image credit: Digital Globe – ISISImage date: Nov. 4, 2010
November 2010 visit to Yongbyon presented us with a new reality
“We will convert our center to an LWR and pilot enrichment facility”We will convert our center to an LWR and pilot enrichment facility
Allison Puccioni, Jane’ HIS
We were shown the construction start for a 100 MWt experimental LWR
Digital Globe
We were shown the construction start for a 100 MWt experimental LWRand a modern 2000 centrifuge enrichment facility.
Sept 26 2010 Nov 04 2010 May 28 2011
Nov 04 2011 Jan 26 2011
Source: DigitalGlobe Source: DigitalGlobe Source: GeoEye
March 20 2012
June 24 2012 August 6 2012
Source: DigitalGlobe, 38 North Source: DigitalGlobe
June 24 2012
Source: DigitalGlobe
Source: GeoEye Source: GeoEyeSource: GeoEye
Newly constructed Newly constructed fence fence Newly constructed Newly constructed fence fence
TurbineTurbineGenerator HallGenerator Hall
TurbineTurbineGenerator HallGenerator Hall
New cement roadsNew cement roads
5MW
e R5M
We R
5MW
e R5M
We RHHHH
Reactor Containment Structure with domeReactor Containment Structure with dome
Reactor
Reactor
Reactor
Reactor
Heavy Heavy ManufacturingManufacturingHeavy Heavy ManufacturingManufacturing
Cooling Cooling water water P hP h
Cooling Cooling water water P hP h New area of activityNew area of activity
5MWe spent fuel 5MWe spent fuel pool storagepool storage
5MWe spent fuel 5MWe spent fuel pool storagepool storage
PumphousePumphousePumphousePumphouse Trench sealing Trench sealing for cooling for cooling
water pipeswater pipes
Trench sealing Trench sealing for cooling for cooling
water pipeswater pipes
New area of activityNew area of activity
KuryongKuryong River (Reactor Cooling River (Reactor Cooling Source)Source)KuryongKuryong River (Reactor Cooling River (Reactor Cooling Source)Source)
17 October 2012, Source: GeoEye
Purely illustrative ‐ this is not Yongbyon, but close to what we saw (Nov. 12, 2010).
Piketon Ohio Centrifuge plant 1984 (Department of Energy)Piketon, Ohio Centrifuge plant, 1984 (Department of Energy)Several additional centrifuge lines were removed graphically to try to get this as close as possible to the centrifuge cascades we saw in Bldg. 4 at Yongbyon
Uranium Enrichment Centrifuge FacilityUranium Enrichment Centrifuge FacilityBuilding Exterior 1Building Exterior 1
33 D M d lD M d l33--D ModelD Model
Blue Roof Blue Roof Main Gate to Fuel Main Gate to Fuel Centrifuge HallCentrifuge Hall Fabrication FacilityFabrication Facility
Road to Building 4Road to Building 4Main EntranceMain Entrance ggMain Entrancewith granite stepsMain Entrancewith granite steps
Yongbyon centrifuge facility – Nov. 2010• 2 000 centrifuges in a divided 100 meter cascade hall• 2,000 centrifuges in a divided 100-meter cascade hall
• Centrifuges ~ 1.8 m high by 20 cm diameter
• Claimed to have steel rotors• Likely maraging steel, hence P-2 (G-2) centrifugesy g g , ( ) g
• Through-put claimed at 8,000 kg SWU/year• Capable of producing 2 tonnes LEU/yr (adequate for small LWR)Capable of producing 2 tonnes LEU/yr (adequate for small LWR)
• Claimed to be operating, producing LEU now• We cannot confirm but not inconsistent with what we saw• We cannot confirm, but not inconsistent with what we saw
• Modern control roomPyongyang must have another centrifuge facility in order to make
this facility operational in a little over one year. Such a facilitymay have produced HEU.
Bldg.5
Yongbyon Fuel Fabrication Plant
StructuresJune 2010
New Bldg.May 2011
Guest HouseSept 2010Guest HouseSept 2010
gCentrifuge Hall
completed June 2010Centrifuge Hall
completed June 2010June 2010
New FacilitySept 2010New FacilitySept 2010
N BldN Bld
RefurbishedSept 2010RefurbishedSept 2010
Bldg.1: UO2 Production
Building 3:Uranium Metal Production
Building 3:Uranium Metal Production
New BldgSept 2010New BldgSept 2010
New BuildingsNew BuildingsJune June –– Sept 2012Sept 2012
New BuildingsNew BuildingsJune June –– Sept 2012Sept 2012
17 OCT 2012; Source: GeoEye
Ju eJu e Sept 0Sept 0Ju eJu e Sept 0Sept 0
Better bombs? North Korea would require another test
Seoul watching space launch animationSeoul watching space launch animation
If it tests, what will it be and when?
Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site, DPRKFLOODING EFFECTS
LA-UR-12-25674
NNSouth Portal AreaSouth Portal Area
NN
S AS A
East Portal AreaEast Portal Area
Support AreaSupport Area
3 OCT 2012 ©GeoEye©GeoEye
West Portal AreaWest Portal Area
Post-Flood
Sentry and the news mediaSohae launch complex
Associated Press
April 13, 2012 Space launch
Combination of nuclear weapons and missiles increases the threat
Images of North Korea’s new “Musudan” IRBM
Front-view of the MusudanIRBM missile and MAZ-547AIRBM missile and MAZ 547A TEL. Source: http://www.fresh.co.il
Sid Vi f th M d IRBM i ilSide View of the Musudan IRBM missile and MAZ-547A TEL as featured in the 10 Oct 2010 military parade in Pyongyang. Source: AP/Wide WorldSource: AP/Wide World
What does North Korea have?• Nuclear weaponsNuclear weapons
• Plutonium: 24 to 42 kg (~4 to 8 bomb’s worth)• No plutonium in the pipeline
M t lik l i l t fid t t t i il• Most likely simple, not confident to mount on missiles• 2006 test - partial success; 2009 - likely successful
• Uranium enrichment• Showed me a small industrial scale enrichment facility• Likely to have HEU not sure of extent of programLikely to have HEU, not sure of extent of program
• Missile program Four long range missile tests two total• Four long-range missile tests – two totalfailures, two partially successful. Most recent – 4/13/12
• Musudan road-mobile missile – Oct. 2010 parade
We know little about progress since Nov. 2010.They may have both plutonium and HEU.
So, what to do now?
For now contain the threat – 3 no’s
• No more bombs (no more Pu and HEU)
• No better bombs (no testing also constrain missile launches)No better bombs (no testing, also constrain missile launches)
• No export
We must be prepared to give a yes in return
Policies are complicated by leadership transition in North,domestic politics in South and the U.S.
Three possible options
• Do nothing, wait for Kim regime collapse
• Dual track sanctions with diplomacy• Dual track, sanctions with diplomacy • Typically conditioned on denuclearization first
• Create conditions favorable to nuclear disarmament• Don’t’ let it get worse – three No’s• Will require bold and close China – US cooperationWill i t i d it t lti l• Will require sustained commitment – multiple years
Why countries build and keep nuclear weapons
N ti l it• National security
• International statement, prestige
• Domestic statement and politics
Scott D. Sagan, “Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons? Three Models in Search of a Bomb,” International Security 21 (3) (Winter 1996/1997).
Switzerland
: Ratified NPT: Ratified NPT as ROC: Ratified NPT, Withdrew in 2003
Start and End of Nuclear Weapons Activity and NPT Ratification
Sweden
Yugoslavia (1) + (2)
Brazil
(West) Germany
Italy
Australia (1) + (2)
North Korea
Egypt
South Korea
Libya
South Africa
Taiwan (1) + (2)
R i
Iran (1) + (2)
Algeria
Iraq
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Syria
Romania
Also included Argentina and Japan for short timesS. D. SaganModified S. Hecker
South Korea chose electricity over bombs ~ 1980• 40 % electricity from nuclear power• One of the world’s fastest growing economies• One of the world s fastest growing economies• An industrial powerhouse• Poised to become major nuclear exporter
Seoul, ROK
Under new management
Time is not on their side
Over 1 million cell phones now
top related