will facebook survive... us? (social media reconnections 3 seminar)
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/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
Will
© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved.
survive…… US?
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By Chia Han-LeonLecturer, Enterprise Social Business, Institute of Systems ScienceNational University of Singapore
/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
There are people who “love” Facebook…
More than 1.27 billion users 2.7 billion connected people 1.2 billion monthly active users 13 new users per second
© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 2
To illustrate…..
/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved.
The Faces of Facebook by Natalia Rojas (app.thefacesoffacebook.com)
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/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
And there are people who “hate” Facebook
Milennials Teenagers Privacy advocates Disillusioned Marketers
>>
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Image: Flickr user owenwbrown]
/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
5© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved.
http://time.com/34025/the-free-marketing-gravy-train-is-over-on-facebook/
http://adage.com/article/digital/brands-organic-facebook-reach-crashed-october/292004/
http://adage.com/article/digital/facebook-admits-organic-reach-brand-posts-dipping/245530/
/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
6© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved.
https://threatpost.com/privacy-advocates-want-to-halt-facebook-acquisition-of-whatsapp/104673
http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/229815
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/dec/27/facebook-dead-and-buried-to-teens-research-finds
/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved.
Source: iStrategy Labs http://istrategylabs.com/2014/01/3-million-teens-leave-facebook-in-3-years-the-2014-facebook-demographic-report/
Caveat:different range per group
The statistics often say:
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/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved.
7% of 2,449 teens say they don’t use Facebook.
36% of 1,067 teens say they don’t use Twitter.
Though, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll,
Source: Marketingcharts.com/Piper Jaffray (Oct 2013)
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“Like” and “Use” are two different things
/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
Three popular services
Many young adults use Instagram
Teens say they prefer Whatsapp.
So that apparently leaves most adults, parents, grandparents on…
> 90% of the 150 million people on Instagram are under age 35.
Of all social media users,Age 18-29: 37% use instagramAge 30-49: 18% Age 50-64: 6%
Even primary school students use Whatsapp. However there are no demographics.
© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved.
(Maybe when the kids grow up…)
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http://www.businessinsider.sg/instagram-demographics-2013-12/
/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
But in case you’ve forgotten…
$1 billion
$19 billion
© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 10
/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
So actually,
Everyone is (still sort of) using Facebook.
© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 11
/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
and then Facebook bought
Photo by MHK Marketing, used under Creative Commons license. http://www.flickr.com/photos/mkhmarketing
and made lots of Oculus’ original backers angry
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/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
Has the novelty of Facebook worn off?
E.g.
Why write a postwhen you can just#love #TagsForLikes #TFLers #tweegram#photooftheday #20likes #amazing #smile #follow4follow #like4like #look #instalike #igers#picoftheday #food #instadaily #instafollow #followme#girl #iphoneonly #instagood #bestoftheday#instacool #instago #all_shots #follow #webstagram#colorful #style #swag
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/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
Facebook has evolved.
It has to.
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/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
Regular Improvements
March 2014
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/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
2008: The Publisher
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Some of Facebook’s key rollouts
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/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
2008:Facebook Chat
Real-time Notifications
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/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
The Like
2009
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/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
2009: Facebook Pages
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/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
So, will Facebook survive?
Yes, based on its mass and evolving usage.
© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 20
/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
But is Facebook’s mass also its weakness?
Too many eggs in one basket?What if Facebook is smaller? Government-owned/controlled?
© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 21
/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
http://www.theverge.com/2014/3/13/5488558/danah-boyd-interview-the-era-of-facebook-is-an-anomaly
© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 22
/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
“The idea of everybody going to one site is just weird.” Give me one other part of history where
everybody shows up to the same social space.
Fragmentation is a more natural state of being.”
Microsoft Researcherdanah boyd
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/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
Facebook vs the Competition
© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved.
A Fragmented Social Web
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/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
Two ways to look at it
© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 25
/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
1. Where else would we go?
Platforms that have value Facebook doesn’t provide, in terms of a feature or service.
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/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
… or in less tangible terms such as privacy or cost of participation.
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/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
“LinkedIn is for people you know, Facebook is for people you used to know, Twitter is for people you want to know.”
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i.e. they are all different.
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The old joke….
/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved.
“Twitter makes me like people I’ve never met and Facebook makes me hate people I know in real life.”
- @shaylamaddox
Illustration by Kiersten
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Slightly newer joke ….
/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
Familiarity Breeds Contempt.
30© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved.
Knowing someone too well also means knowing his/her faults.
Like our relationship with Facebook, family… and even friends.
/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
2. Does a “Facebook Killer” exist?
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/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
Something with:
Identical features/value,
Attractive to/used by many people; and
presumably “better” in some way.
None. Or we don’t know (yet).
© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 32
/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
How about the other giant tech companies?
© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 33
/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
It’s a network of functions.
Not a social network.
Just as indispensable as Facebook – probably more(!).
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Google’s value is “embedded”
Important value that we call upon when needed.
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/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
Facebook is “wears its heart on its sleeve”. It thrives on the serendipitous and the emotional.
Which we enjoy, we crave.
The very definition of social network.
We don’t think of it as “functionalist”.
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/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
Good to know Have to know
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/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
So how will Facebook survive if it’s not very “functional”?
What is its “business model”?
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/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
AnalogiesFacebook is your sofa/bed.
Option, ComfortUnique,Necessary
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Google is like your fridge.
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FBED CONCEPT BY DEVIANTOM (deviantom.com)
/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
Facebook is the food/dish.
The “end product”, the one you enjoy.
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Google is the cooking pan.
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Source: http://www.alohasweets.com/
The tool, the means; the one you work with.
/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
Function …. “Function”.
© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 40
Friends, fulfilment, etc. (SOCIAL)
And this will change things again.
/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
When Google/FB REALLY IS IN your pot, fridge and more.
SOCIAL REDEFINED: capacity to share “have-to-knows” before you need it rather than through serendipitous “good to know”.
One of the masters of this is…
© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 41
IKEA’s kitchen of the future, the SKARP
/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
The (somewhat) hidden rival:
Could easily become a social network.
Already had the foundations since 1990s.
Reverse situation: already has a business model.
© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 42
/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
“The Internet is disrupting every media industry… people can complain about that, but complaining is not a strategy. And Amazon is not happening to book selling, the future is happening to book selling.”
Amazon's Jeff Bezos looks to the future http://www.cbsnews.com/news/amazons-jeff-bezos-looks-to-the-future/Photo: http://www.forbes.com/sites/georgeanders/2012/04/04/inside-amazon/
Jeff Bezos
Facebook expects to be disrupted too.
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/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
Facebook Acquisitions
Who tried to buy Facebook in 2006?
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/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
was a rival to Facebook for photo-sharing.
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/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
Had the youth demographics that Facebook was “missing”.
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/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
“More of my friends have Whatsapp than Facebook.”
“Too much work to use Facebook. Have to boot up computer. Don’t like the mobile version.”
“I still like Facebook because people in it are more mature.”
I asked my tween what she thought:
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/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
But why buy Oculus Rift?
© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 48
/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
The future in Virtual Reality.
It’s about building the
next-generation internet.
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/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved.
But not like THIS...
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/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
iOptik Augmented Reality contact lenses.(Note: still requires glasses)
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http://innovega-inc.com/
/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
Facial Recognition, Augmented Reality, etc.
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(Bought by Google in 2012)
/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
Virtual Reality Interfaces
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Ironman (Marvel/Paramount)
/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
Gesture Recognition, etc.
© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 54
http://leapmotion.com
/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
All 4 articles from last week of March 2014.© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 55
/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
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P5 Glove - Virtual Reality Data Glove http://www.cwonline.com/
By the way, who would make up the biggest market for virtual reality gaming?
YouthThe segment that is “leaving” Facebook…
/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
Also, Facebook is building drones and satellites to connect more of the world to the internet.
© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 57
/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
So will Facebook survive….Us?
YES,but not in the form you imagine today.
It’s going to be more than a social network.
© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 58
/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
Social and Functional technologies will merge
59© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved.
Virtual Reality + Internet of Things + Smart Devices + Social/Collabortive Networking + Predictive Intelligence + …….
/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
conclusionJeff Bezos:
“Companies have short life spans…. And Amazon will be disrupted one day. … I don’t worry about it 'cause I know it’s inevitable. Companies come and go. And the companies that are, you know, the shiniest and most important of any era, you wait a few decades and they’re gone.”Charlie Rose:
“And your job is to make sure that you delay that date?”Jeff Bezos:
“I would love for it to be after I’m dead.”
Amazon's Jeff Bezos looks to the future http://www.cbsnews.com/news/amazons-jeff-bezos-looks-to-the-future/
© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 60
Will it?
/61ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014
Thanks for listening!
@leonchia
sg.linkedin.com/in/leonchia/
leonchia@nus.edu.sg
61© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved.
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