will electric cars rule the future?
Post on 11-Aug-2014
20.236 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
Will electric car rule the future?
Nicolas Meilhan
Principal Consultant, Frost & Sullivan
July 2014
2
3 major challenges we have to take into consideration to develop a
sustainable car : climatic changes, end of fossil fuels and air
pollution
Performance
• Efficiency
• Acceleration
• Top speed
• CO2 emissions
• Air pollution
Climatic changes
•CO2 emission at highest level
in the last 800,000 years
•More than 2° expected by 2100
with drastic consequences if
nothing is done
End of fossil resources
•97% of road transportation
use fossil fuels
•Oil, which is the main driver
of our economy, might have
disappeared by the end of
the century
Air pollution
•With the rural exodus and
development of mega cities,
air pollution has reached
unprecedented levels
•Serious health diseases to
multiply drastically
Challe
nges
Constr
ain
s
Sustainable car KSF = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE
Costs
• Total cost of ownership
• Retail
• Recharging
• Maintenance
Autonomy
• Distance without charging
• Time to recharge
• Storage weight
Infrastructure
• Investment required to update existing infrastructure and/or build a new one
• Standards across all countries
Perform
a
n
c
e
Climatic changes
End of fossil
r
e
s
o
u
r
c
e
s
Air pollution
Sustainable car = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE
Autonomy Infrastructure Cost
3
The reason why electric vehicles never met the gap until now is that fossil
fuels have the best energy density, both in mass and volume, than any other
energy vector
Source : Pierre-René BAUQUIS
Energy density of energy vectors used in transport
Fossil fuels have a mass density 100 times as high as batteries
1kg of fossil fuel contain as much energy as in 100 kg of batteries
4
If anthropogenic contribution to climate change is still being
debated, global warming is happening with up to 5°C increase by
2100 in the worst case scenarios with drastic consequences
Sources: Global change.gov
800,000 Year Record of CO2 Concentration
Perform
a
n
c
e
Climatic changes
End of fossil
r
e
s
o
u
r
c
e
s
Air pollution
Sustainable car = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE
Autonomy Infrastructure Cost
•The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is 30% higher than at any time in
measurable history
• It is predicted to reach from 550 to 900 ppm by 2100 – 85% to 200% increase compare to
highest concentration observed in the last 800,000 years
Projected temperature up to 2100
5
Knowing whether we’ll still have fossil fuel in 2100 is not key – the
critical issue is how long we will have affordable oil to fuel our
economy and our cars Perform
a
n
c
e
Climatic changes
End of fossil
r
e
s
o
u
r
c
e
s
Air pollution
Sustainable car = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE
Autonomy Infrastructure Cost
Extr
actio
n in
bill
ion
s o
f o
il b
arr
els
pe
r ye
ar
Liquid fuels extraction - 1700 to 2100 -
Source: Manicore , Jean-Marc Jancovici
« It's not the size of the tank which matters, but the size of the tap» Jean-Marie Bourdaire
6
0
20
40
60
80
100
60 70 80 90 100 110
Air pollution is one of the key driver for city to adopt EV cars,
especially in China. Diesel emissions (particles & NOx) are
particularly unhealthy although CO2 emissions are lower
Particles (PM) emissions in Paris
9th of juin 2004, 10h, atmo index « Mauvais 7 »
14th of June 2004, 10h, atmo index « Bon 3 »
Perform
a
n
c
e
Climatic changes
End of fossil
r
e
s
o
u
r
c
e
s
Air pollution
Sustainable car = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE
Autonomy Infrastructure Cost
PM10 = 20 µg/m3
PM10 = 80 µg/m3
NOx & CO2 emissions by engine technology
Diesel
Gasoline
NO
x e
mis
sio
ns
CO2 emissions
Diesel 2005
Downsized Diesel
+DPF
DPF + NOx trap
HCCI+DPF
DPF+SCR D Hybrid
SI Hybrid
PFI 2005
PFI adv + VVT
DISI CAI
DISI NOx
trap
DISI turbo
19,000 people killed every year in Europe
because of particles from diesel cars
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
7
Extended-Range EVs offer the best trade-off between petroleum
consumption and Well-to-Wheel Emission
Fuel Consumption and Well-to-Wheel GHG Emissions for Future (2035 Cars)
Source: More Sustainable transportation: The Role of Energy Efficient Vehicle Technologies, Sloan Automotive Laboratory (MIT), April 2008
Perform
a
n
c
e
Climatic changes
End of fossil
r
e
s
o
u
r
c
e
s
Air pollution
Sustainable car = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE
Autonomy Infrastructure Cost
Extended-Range 30 miles
8
Country electricity mix can have a huge impact on CO2
emissions of electric vehicles
Well to wheel emissions of a battery vehicle
•Carbon capture and storage is key to reduce transportation emissions in the long term as most of electricity in the USA (40%),Germany (45%) and China (80%) is produced with coal
•Nuclear and renewable energies (including hydro) are the best alternatives to produce CO2 free electricity
Emissions intensity
gCO2/kWh g/km
Wind 5.5 0.9
Nuclear 15 2.4
Hydro 18 2.9
Nuclear 60 9.6
Natural Gas - CC 461 74
Natural Gas 653 104
Coal 1075 172
CO2 emissions intensity (gCO2/kWh)
% of CO2
free
electricity
Emission
intensity
(gCO2 / kWh)
Well to wheel
emissions of electric
vehicle* (g/km)
France 90% 75 20
Canada 59% 267 43
California 44% 470 75
US 31% 710 114
China 20% 950 160
Source: Rouler sans pétrole, Pierre Langlois, 2008
* Equivalent to an intermediary ICE car = 9l/100 km => 244g/km
Perform
a
n
c
e
Climatic changes
End of fossil
r
e
s
o
u
r
c
e
s
Air pollution
Sustainable car = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE
Autonomy Infrastructure Cost
9
Extended-Range EVs are the only alternative technology able to
compete today at a global scale with the ICE on autonomy and
infrastructure investment required
Sources: Frost & Sullivan analysis, 2011
Autonomy Infrastructure
investment High Low
Distance Time to recharge Storage weight
Internal Combustion
Engine
600 km 5 min Already existing 45 kg
Extended-Range EV
600 km (20 to 60
km electric)
Already existing 2-3 hours 50 to 90 kg
Electric vehicle
60 to 250 km
electric
To be developed 4-8 hours 90 to 250 kg
Fuel Cell Vehicle
600 km To be developed 5 min 90 to 100 kg
Performance
Perform
a
n
c
e
Climatic changes
End of fossil
r
e
s
o
u
r
c
e
s
Air pollution
Sustainable car = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE
Autonomy Infrastructure Cost
10
Extended-Range EV is expected to be competitive with the ICE by
2015 with a payback period of les than 4 years for an oil price at
2,5 €/L without any state subsidy
Total cost of ownership of an ICE compared with a Extended-Range EV
* Prospects for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles in the United States and Japan: A General Equilibrium Analysis MIT, 2009
** 80% of French drivers average trip per day is less than 50 km every day
Payback period sensitivity to oil price and state subsidy
TCO of a C-segment car ICE Extended-Range EV with 50 km
electric autonomy
Retail price (€) 14800 € (20000$) + 7400 € (+10000 $*)
Electric autonomy 0 km 50 km
Energy consumption 7 l/100km 1.4 l/100km ** & 15 kWh/100km
Annual energy consumption (14000 km) 980 l 196 l & 1,68 MWh
Annual TCO(1,75€/l & 100 €/MWh) 1715 € 343 € + 168 € = 511 €
Annual TCO(2 €/l & 100 €/MWh) 1960 € 392 € + 168 € = 560 €
Annual TCO(2,5 €/l & 100 €/MWh) 2450 € 490 € + 168 € = 658 €
Oil price 1,75 € 2 € 2.5 €
Incremental annual TCO of ICE 1204 € 1400 € 1882 €
Payback period without subsidy 6.1 years 5.3 years 3.9 years
Payback period with a €2,000 subsidy 4,5 years 3,9 years 2.9 years
Payback period with a €4,000 subsidy 2.8 years 2,4 year 1.8 years
Épuisement des énergies fossiles
Performance
Changements climatiques
Pollution atmosphérique
Autonomie Infrastructures Coûts
11
0
5Well to Wheel Emissions
Autonomy
Infrastructure InvestmentEnergy Efficiency
Cost0
5Well to Wheel Emissions
Autonomy
Infrastructure InvestmentEnergy Efficiency
Cost
Internal Combustion Engine
Electric Vehicle
Extended-Range EV
Fuel Cell Vehicle
Extended-Range EV represent the best trade-off for a sustainable vehicle at a
global scale in the short to medium term - up to 2030
0
5Well to Wheel Emissions
Autonomy
Infrastructure InvestmentEnergy Efficiency
Cost
0
5Well to Wheel Emissions
Autonomy
Infrastructure InvestmentEnergy Efficiency
Cost
Sources: Frost & Sullivan analysis, 2011
12
The market potential for electrified vehicles mostly depend on 2 factors: 1. Battery prices reduction from $600/kWh
2. Gas prices increase from $3.5 per gallon
Electrified vehicles projected competitiveness with internal-combustion-engine vehicles - Total cost of ownership (US example)1 -
1 Assumes 15 kWh/km (as may be achieved
with lightweight, efficient air-conditioning) Source: Mc Kinsey, 2011
13
Electrification of vehicles will take place progressively starting with
Extended-Range EV whose electric autonomy increases when battery prices
decrease - up to the day when all vehicles will run electrically
• ICE will still be around for a while representing the majority of vehicle sales for another 15 years
• Hydrogen is very unlikely to be used in a car before 2025 - only an energy vector for gas or nuclear, no significant advantage over an PHEV and some investments required to set up a distribution infrastructure
• EV, which neither emits CO2 nor pollutants, still face too many challenges – cost, autonomy, infrastructure, norm standards – to have a chance to replace at a global scale the ICE before 2040.
• There is however a potential for EV and FC in local niche applications like company fleets, car sharing or bus/tramway
• Extended-range EV has both the ICE advantages – autonomy, infrastructure required, affordable cost - and the EV ones – Energy efficiency, Well to Wheel emissions without sharing their drawbacks
Annual light-duty sales by technology type Annual global EV and PHEV sales
Source: EIA 2011
14
The higher the gas price, the more electrified cars are sold! Best way to promote electrified vehicles is to increase gas prices – either artificially through a
carbon tax or by selling more cars to China!
Month-over-month changes in gas price and electric vehicles sales - January 2011 to May 2014, USA -
Source: Energy Policy Information Center
15
Nicolas Meilhan Principal Consultant
Energy & Transportation Practices
(+33) 1 42 81 23 24
nicolas .meilhan@frost.com
top related