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Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies
www.wiiw.ac.at
The Balkans: Problems and Prospects
Vladimir Gligorov
Brussels, December 9
Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies
www.wiiw.ac.at
Contents
Growth and external imbalances Effects of crisis Growth prospects Regional and EU integration
wiiw
3
GDP per capita, 2008EUR at PPPs
Source: wiiw Annual Database incorporating national statistics.
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
NMS-5 HR ME RO BG RS MK BA AL
wiiw
4
Real GDP growth in CEE and SEE, 2000 = 100
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
NMS-4 Poland Bulgaria
Romania PCC-4* CC-2**
Note: * PCC-4:AL,BA,ME,RS. **CC-2: HR, MK.
Source: wiiw Annual Database incorporating national statistics.
wiiw
5
FDI stock, per capita, in NMS and SEEC, 2000-2008, EUR
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
New Member States-5 Bulgaria
Romania Southeast Europe
Source: wiiw Annual Database incorporating national statistics.
wiiw
6
FDI stock, per capita, in NMS and SEEC, 2000-2008, EUR
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
BG RO AL BA HR MK ME RS NMS-5
Source: wiiw Annual Database incorporating national statistics.
wiiw
7
0
50
100
150
200
250
AL BA BG HR MK ME* RO RS* NMS-8
1990=100 1995=100 2000=100
Industrial production, 2008
Note: Until 1998 data refer to Serbia and Montenegro.
Source: wiiw Annual Database incorporating national statistics.
wiiw
8
Exports of goods and services (BOP)
in % of GDP
Source: wiiw Annual Database incorporating national statistics.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
NMS-4 BG RO HR MK AL BH ME RS
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
wiiw
9
Exports in NMS and SEE, EUR mn
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
NMS-4 Poland Bulgaria Romania SEE
Note: Data refer to sum over available data
Source: wiiw Annual Database incorporating national statistics.
wiiw
11
Technology-driven industries, as % of total manufacturing exports to the EU
0
10
20
30
AL BA BG HR MK ME RO RS NMS8
2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: Comext.
wiiw
12
Low-skill industries,as % of total manufacturing exports to the EU
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
AL BA BG HR MK ME RO RS NMS8
2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: Comext.
wiiw
14
Trade balances of goods and services and income balances 2000-2008, in % of
GDP
-30
-25-20
-15
-10
-50
5
10
1520
25
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
Trade balance in % of GDP Income in % of GDP
Transfers in % of GDP Current account in % of GDP
Source: wiiw Annual Database incorporating national statistics, Eurostat.
CZ HU PL SK SI HR RS
wiiw
15
Trade balances of goods and services and income balances 2000-2008, in % of
GDP
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
Trade balance in % of GDP Income in % of GDP
Transfers in % of GDP Current account in % of GDP
Source: Eurostat.
BG RO EE LT LV TR UA
wiiw
16
Trade balance (commodities) in % of GDP in SEE and CEE
-40-35-30-25-20-15-10-505
NM
S-5
Cro
atia
Mac
edon
ia
Alb
ania
Bos
nia-
Her
zego
vina
Mon
tene
gro
Ser
bia
Bul
gari
a
Rom
ania
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: wiiw Annual Database incorporating national statistics.
wiiw
17
Current account in % of GDP in SEE and CEE
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
NM
S-5
Cro
atia
Mac
edon
ia
Alb
ania
Bos
nia-
Her
zego
vina
Mon
tene
gro
Ser
bia
Bul
gari
a
Rom
ania
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: wiiw Annual Database incorporating national statistics.
wiiw
18
0
5
10
15
20
25
Croatia Macedonia Albania Bosnia &Herzegovina
Bulgaria Romania
2007 2008
Private transfers in SEEin % of GDP
Source: wiiw Annual Database incorporating national statistics.
wiiw
19
Components of the Balance of Paymentsin % of GDP, 2008
Source: National banks of respective countries.
Croatia Macedonia AlbaniaBosnia &
Herzegovina Montenegro Serbia Bulgaria Romania
Current account -9.4 -13.1 -14.7 -14.9 -30.1 -13.9 -25.4 -12.2 a) Trade balance, net -22.9 -26.7 -27.1 -38.1 -44.6 -20.2 -25.2 -13.4 Exports of goods 20.6 41.3 10.2 27.9 15.5 20.7 44.6 24.5 Imports of goods -43.5 -68.0 -37.4 -66.0 -60.1 -40.9 -69.8 -37.9 b) Services, net 14.7 0.0 0.8 5.4 12.1 -0.3 2.3 0.6 1. Transport, net 1.1 -0.9 -1.1 0.3 . . 0.3 0.0 2. Travel, net 14.1 1.0 1.3 3.3 . . 2.7 -0.1 3. Other, net -0.5 -0.1 0.6 1.8 . . -0.7 0.7 c) Income, net -3.3 -1.4 1.2 3.2 0.2 -2.1 -3.9 -3.8 1. Compensation of employees, net 1.2 1.4 1.9 4.4 . . 4.2 0.8 2. Investment income, net -4.5 -2.9 -0.7 -1.1 . . -8.1 -4.6 d) Current transfers, net 2.2 15.0 10.5 14.6 2.2 8.8 1.5 4.4 1. General government, net -0.1 0.7 0.4 1.3 . . 0.3 0.6 1. Other sectors, net 2.3 14.3 10.1 13.3 . . 1.2 3.7
Private transfers, EUR mn 1342 1286 1086 1851 . . 720 6576Private transfers, % GDP 2.8 19.8 12.1 14.6 . . 2.1 4.8Private transfers, per capita 303 628 342 482 . . 94 306
wiiw
20
Gross external debt in % of GDP
Source: wiiw Annual Database incorporating national statistics.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
BG RO HR MK AL BH ME RS
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
wiiw
21
Gross external debt in % of exports of
goods and services (BOP)
Source: wiiw Annual Database incorporating national statistics.
0
50
100
150
200
250
BG RO HR MK AL BH ME RS
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
wiiw
22
General government budget balance, in % of GDP
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
AL BA HR MK ME RS BG RO
2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: wiiw Annual Database incorporating national statistics.
wiiw
23
Labour market indicators 2008LFS, in % average
Employment rate Unemployment rate
Albania 53.8 13.1
Bosnia and Herzegovina 33.6 23.4
Croatia 44.4 8.4
Macedonia 37.3 33.8
Montenegro 42.3 17.2
Serbia 44.4 13.6
Bulgaria 50.8 5.6
Romania 51.4 5.8
Source: wiiw Annual Database incorporating national statistics.
wiiw
24
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
BG RO MK BA ME RS AL HR
2007 2008 2009
Unemployment rates, 2007-2009in %, annual average, LFS
Source: wiiw Database.
wiiw
25
The main problem
Weak tradeable sector External imbalances Low domestic savings
wiiw
26
GDP growth rates, 2005-2010year-on-year, growth in %
Source: wiiw Annual Database incorporating national statistics.
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
NMS-4 BG RO HR MK AL BA ME RS
wiiw
27
Industrial production growth, 2005-2010year-on-year, growth in %
Source: wiiw Annual Database incorporating national statistics.
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
NMS-4 BG RO HR MK TR AL BA ME RS
wiiw
28
2011201020092009
1-2Q
2008
1-2Q
20082007
2
2
1
5
1.0-3.5-4.17.65.46.9Serbia
-1-3.0-3.5.8.110.7Montenegro
-1-3.0..5.46.0Bosnia & H.
3.01.55.46.78.06.2Albania
2
2
0-2.0-1.26.24.95.9Macedonia
0.0-5.5-6.53.92.45.5Croatia
wiiw forecasts
3
2.6
-1-6.0-3.57.06.06.2Bulgaria
0.3-5.1-5.63.92.75.3NMS-4
20.5-8.5-6.28.26.26.3Romania
GDP developments - change in % against preceding year
wiiw
29
Industrial production: very slow recoveryIndustrial production, July 2008 = 100
Source: wiiw Database.
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09
HR* MK
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09
ME RS
* not seasonally adjusted.
wiiw
30
Foreign trade: very weak recovery
Croatia
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09
Macedonia
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09
EUR million, 2008-2009Imports DeficitExports
Source: wiiw Database, Eurostat.
wiiw
31
Foreign trade: exports flat
Albania
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09
Bosnia and Herzegovina
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09
Serbia
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09
Source: wiiw Database, Eurostat.
EUR million, 2008-2009Imports DeficitExports
wiiw
32
Serbia
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
nominal exchange ratereal exchange rate, PPI-deflated
Exchange rates*Flexible exchange rate: drastic real depreciation after
September 20082008-2009, EUR NCU, Jan. 2008 = 100
*Values over 100 indicate appreciation over January 2008.
Source: wiiw Database, Eurostat.
wiiw
33
Exchange rates*De-facto fixed exchange rate:
modest real depreciation after September 2008 2008-2009, EUR NCU, Jan. 2008 = 100
Albania
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
nominal exchange ratereal exchange rate, PPI-deflated
Croatia
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
nominal exchange ratereal exchange rate, PPI-deflated
Macedonia
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
nominal exchange ratereal exchange rate, PPI-deflated
Source: wiiw Database, Eurostat.
*Values over 100 indicate appreciation over January 2008.
wiiw
34
Exchange rates*Currency board or euro as legal tender:
minor real depreciation after September 2008
2008-2009, EUR NCU, Jan. 2008 = 100
Bosnia and Herzegovina
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
nominal exchange ratereal exchange rate, CPI-deflated
Montenegro
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
real exchange rate, PPI-deflated
Source: wiiw Database, Eurostat.
Values over 100 indicate appreciation over January 2008.
wiiw
36
Integration
Regional cooperation – trade and investment –
Resenstein-Rodan big push policies – however it is a
small and shrinking region European Union perspective – key for stability and
also regional cooperation
wiiw
37
Conclusions
There are no quick fixes Growth model has to be reconsidered due to
sustainability and feasibility issues Savings will have to be increased and consumption
will have to grow slowly if at all in the medium term Economic policies will have to be changed and
structural reforms wil be necessary with the aim to
change the real exchange rate
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