why method matters in political science

Why Method Matters in Political Science

Prof. Kenneth BenoitPO1600 9 March 2010

Academic disciplines

• Divide scholarly activities, also administration and teaching

• Organized further into subfields– Political theory– International Relations– “American politics”– Comparative politics

Disciplinary characteristics

• Scope: defines boundaries of subject matter

• Methods: defines how inquiry is conducted

• Activities consist of:– Research and publication– Attending conferences– Training more political scientists– Membership in professional associations– Teaching– Contributing to public knowledge

What Political Science is NOT:

• Economics or Sociology (because of scope)

• History (because of theory)

• Journalism, story-telling, or editorial opinion (because of method)

• Philosophy (because of method) – although theory has always been part of political science as a discipline

Basic Goals of Science• Explanation, prediction, control• Generalization: the formulation of propositions that

cover a class of phenomena. Generalizations have– Scope is the range and variety of phenomena a

generalization relates to one another– Probability is the nearness to certainty in their

relationship.– The problem in social sciences is that the degree of

probability of a statement tends to vary inversely with its scope.

Basic Procedure of Science

1. Identify a problem

2. Observation

3. Description

4. Inductive generalization

5. Deduction from the generalization

6. Further tests

7. Acceptance, revision, or rejection of a hypothesis

Why Methodology Matters

• The content of science is its method• Science makes author irrelevant• Science is logical• Science is cumulative• Ability to replicate is critical• Problems of social science subject matter

make methods all the more important

Methodological challenges for Political Science

• Rules of interpretation vary• Experimental data usually unavailable• Subject matter resists generalization

– Behavior too complex– Individuals vary (esp. culturally)– Behavior changes

• Difficult to separate observer values from research

Disciplinary Challenges for Political Science

• Need common concepts and replicable research to advance the study of politics as a science

• Science knows where it is going

• Science identifies common key problems

• Science knows roughly how to solve these problems

• Science is cumulative

• Science involves collaboration

Example:Measuring Democracy

• Problem: How to empirically measure democracy?• Political rights: Each country and territory is awarded from 0

to 4 raw points for each of 10 questions grouped into three subcategories in a political rights checklist

• Civil liberties: 15 questions are grouped into four subcategories in a civil liberties checklist.

• Combined Score: The total raw points in each checklist correspond to two final numerical ratings of 1 to 7. These two ratings are then averaged to determine a status category of “Free,” “Partly Free,” or “Not Free.”

Freedom House Democracy

Example:Predicting Wars from Democracy

Freedom House 1973

Expected Wars

2 1.55

4 1.36

7 1.12

12 0.81

14 0.71

Mean Standard Error (0.23)

Example:Measuring Left-Right Policy

• Analyzing political texts (manifestos)• Surveys of experts• Public opinion surveys• Statistical techniques based on (legislative)

voting patterns

Measuring Left-Right in Ireland (2002)

PD

FF

FG

LB

SF

GR

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20Left-Right Dimension (1=Left, 20=Right)

95% confidence intervals

Measuring attitudes toward European Integration in Ireland (2007)

Measuring Left-Right in the European Parliament

Assessing the “fit” of British parties in their European Party Groups

Measuring relative importance of policy dimensions in Latin America

Left-Right Policy Analysis from Expert Surveys

-4 -2 0 2 4 6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6

CYDKMT

FIATDEGRESIE

NOLUUKPTSENLBEIT

CH

CYDKMT

FIATDEGRESIE

NOLUUKPTSENLBEIT

CH

Factor 1 Factor 2

mean of coefficientGraphs by Variable

AT-FPO

AT-Gru

AT-OVP

AT-SPO

AU-AD

AU-ALP

AU-LPAAU-NP

BE-Eco

BE-PS

BE-SPSp

BE-VB

CA-BQ CA-LPC

CA-NDP

CA-PC

CH-CVP

CH-EVP

CH-FDP

CH-GPS

CH-SD

CH-SPS

CH-SVP

DE-CDU/ C

DE-FDP

DE-GRÜ

DE-PDS

DE-SPD DK-CD

DK-Enh

DK-FrP

DK-KF

DK-KrF

DK-RVDK-SD

DK-SF

DK-V

ES-CiU

ES-IU

ES-PNV

ES-PP

ES-PSOE

FI-KDFI-KESK

FI-KOK

FI-SDP

FI-SFP

FI-VAS FI-VIHRGR-KKE GR-ND

GR-PASOK

GR-SYN

IE-FF

IE-FG

IE-GR

IE-LB

IE-PD

IL-Hada

IL-Lab

IL-Lik

IL-Merz

IL-NRP

IL-Raam

IL-Shas

IL-YhT

IS-X-B

IS-X-DIT-AN

IT-FI

IT-Green

IT-LNIT-PDCI

IT-RC

LU-ADR

LU-CSV

LU-DP

LU-G LU-LSAP

NL-CDA

NL-D66

NL-GL NL-PvdA

NL-VVD

NO-DNA

NO-FrP

NO-H

NO-KrF

NO-SV

NO-Sp

NO-V

NZ-Allc

NZ-NP

NZ-NZFP

NZ-NZLP

PT-CDS/ PP

PT-PS

PT-PSD

SE-CSE-FP

SE-KD

SE-M

SE-MP

SE-SAP

SE-V

TR-ANAP

TR-CHP

TR-DSP

TR-DYP

UK-Con

UK-LD

UK-LabUS-Dem

US-Rep

-40

-20

020

4060

CM

P rite

-left

from

last

ele

ctio

n

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20B-L 2003 Expert Survey Left-Right Mean

Example:Campaign Spending Effects

• Question: How much does campaign spending affect electoral success?

• Answer comes from data analysis of Irish elections

• Relationship is modeled and characterized statistically

Campaign Spending Effects

Campaign Spending Effects

Example: Explaining How Electoral Rules Change

Example: Explaining How Electoral Rules Change