wherefore livestock? does animal agriculture have a role in future food systems?

Wherefore livestock? Does animal agriculture have a role in future

food systems?Jimmy Smith, Director General,

International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), KenyaFood Tank Webinar

19 October 2016

Key messages

• Globally, demand for animal source foods is rising rapidly; livestock commodities have the highest production value; animal production has significant environmental and human health impacts

• ‘Unpacking’ global information reveals many opportunities for animal agriculture to contribute to:

• Inclusive, sustainable economic growth • Equitable livelihoods• Nutritious and healthy diets• Sustainable ecosystems

Animal source foods: 5 of 6 highest value global commodities (total value of these 5=US Int $715 billion)

FAOSTAT 2015(values for 2013)

Cow milk

Rice, paddy

Indig. Pig meat

Indig. Cattle meat

Indig. Chicken meat

farmed food fishwheat

soybeansmaize

sugar cane

tomatoes0

50

100

150

200

250

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

net production value (Int $) billion production (MT)

Net

pro

ducti

on v

alue

(Int

$) b

illio

n

Prod

uctio

n (M

T) m

illio

ns

Cow milk has overtaken rice

Global value

Huge increases over 2005/7 amountsof cereals, dairy and meat will be needed by 2050

From 2bn−3bntonnes cereals each year

From 664m−1bntonnes dairy each year

From 258m−460m tonnes meat each year

Global

demand

Animal agriculture and the environment

14.5% anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions

70% of total freshwater use is for agriculture, of which 31% is for livestock

30% global terrestrial biomes – livestock raising 33% all croplands – livestock feed

Global

environment

Global antimicrobial consumption will rise by

67% by 2030

Animal agriculture: food safety, AMR and diet

UK

Netherlands

India

Vietnam

USA

China

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Animal source foodProduceOther

Animal sources foods

cause food borne

diseases

Global health

and nutrition

UnpackingDemand and supply

Gains in meat consumption in developingcountries are outpacing those of developed

1980 1990 2002 2015 2030 20500

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

developingdeveloped

Mill

ion

met

ric to

nnes

E.Asia Pacific

China

South Asia

SSA

High income

0

50

100

150

200

250

% growth in demand for livestock products to 20302000 - 2030

9

E.Asia Pacific

China

South Asia

SSA

High income

0

50

100

150

200

250

E.Asia Pacific

China

South Asia

SSA

High income

050

100150200250300350400

E.Asia Pacific

China

South Asia

SSA

High income

0

50

100

150

200

250

Figure 1. Estimates of the % growth in demand for animal source foods in different World regions, comparing 2005 and 2030. Estimates were developed using the IMPACT model, courtesy Dolapo Enahoro, ILRI.

Beef Pork

Poultry Milk

BMGF, FAO, ILRI

Smallholders still dominatelivestock production in many countries

Region (definition of ‘smallholder’)

% production by smallholder livestock farms

Beef Chicken meat

Sheep/goat meat

Milk Pork Eggs

East Africa(≤ 6 milking animals)

60-90

Bangladesh (< 3ha land)

65 77 78 65 77

India(< 2ha land)

75 92 92 69 71

Vietnam (small scale)

80

Philippines (backyard)

50 35

Livestock and livelihoods

• Almost a billion people rely on livestock for livelihoods

• Over 100 million landless people keep livestock.

• For the vulnerable, up to 40% of benefits from livestock keeping come from non-market, intangible benefits, mostly insurance and financing.

• In the poorest countries, livestock manure comprises over 70% of soil fertility amendments.

• Many employed in local informal livestock product markets

• 90% of animal products are produced and consumed in the same country or region

• Over 70% of livestock products are sold ‘informally’

Smallholders: part of the development

Not sentimentality or a belief in “small is beautiful”Based on the evidence and the dual objectives of

increasing animal source food supply to consumers supporting rural development and livelihoods

The evidence: They produce the bulk of the livestock (and half of crop) products in

developing countries so need to be part of increase supply strategy They continue to be competitive so wont go away on their own Does not detract from investing in larger commercial systems

UnpackingValue

Economic growth

A valuable market: examples

• Livestock: 40% GDP and growing• Market value of animal source foods

in Africa in 2050 estimated as US $ 151 billion

• Globally disease reduces livestock productivity by 25% - valued at US $300 billion per year

• Annual global investment of US $ 25 billion in one health approaches could save as much as US $100 billion annually

Herrero et al. 2014

Demand for livestock commodities in developing economies will be met – the question is how

Scenario #1Meeting livestock demand byimporting livestock products

Scenario #2Meeting livestock demand by

importing livestock industrial production know-how

Scenario #3Meeting livestock demand by

transforming smallholder livestock systems

Demand for milk imports – growing fastest in SSA

2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

S.Asia SE. Asia SSA S.America High income

USD million

Employment – for all - matters

Africa N America Europe

1 044

344

735

208 48 94

2010

Africa N America Europe

2 478

433 707

452

52 72

Total PopulationYouth

2050

Regional projections to 2050, of total and youth (15 to 24) populations in millions

Global ramifications

18

Africa: refugees, 2014

Internally displaced people = 9.9 million

Refugees originating from Africa = 4.6 million

Sub-Saharan Africa hosts more than 26 per

cent of the world's refugee population

Africa: unemployment, 2013

Total for the six highest = 11.8 million

(Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda, Morocco,

Algeria, Ghana)

Smallholder mixed crop-livestock keepersare competitive

East African dairy• 1 million Kenyan smallholders keep Africa’s largest dairy

herd• Ugandans are the world’s lowest-cost milk producers• Small- and large-scale Kenyan poultry and dairy producers

have same levels of efficiency and profits

Vietnam pig industry• 95% of production is by producers with less than 100

animals • Pig producers with 1-2 sows have lower unit costs

than those with more than 4 sows• Industrial pig production could grow to meet

no more than 12% of national supply in the next 10 years • Smallholders will continue to provide most of the porkIFCN, Omiti et al. 2004, ILRI 2012

UnpackingLivestock and the environment

Global greenhouse gas efficiencyper kilogram of animal protein produced

Large livestock production inefficienciesin the developing world present an opportunity

Herrero et al PNAS

Improving the feeding and breeding of India’s smallholder dairy cattle would save some 120 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent each year

With improved grazing management and enriched pastures, the world’s grasslands could store about 600 MT of C02

equivalent each year.

Supporting dairy NAMAs in Kenya and Tanzania

GHG emissions from African livestock excreta were lower than IPCC tier 1 emission factors and cattle breed makes a difference to emissions

UnpackingLivestock and human health

Nutritional divides among 7 billion people today

chronic hunger

inadequate diets

overweight

obese

balanced dietsChronic disease likely to cost $35 trillion by 2030

11% of GNP lost annually in Africa

and Asia from poor nutrition

Animal source foods: valuable for human nutrition, critical in early lifeMilk, meat and eggs:• 13% of the energy and 28% of the protein consumed globally• For the undernourished consumption of far too little of such foods

presents a major threat to their health and wellbeing. • Animal source foods contain:

• essential macronutrients (high quality protein and some fatty acids) • micro nutrients (notably: calcium, vitamin A, B12, iron, zinc, and riboflavin) • some are lacking in plant based foods; some are naturally more bioavailable in

animal products

• Milk: improves childrens’ growth, preventing stunting• Meat: improves cognitive ability (long term)

• Branding & certification of milk vendors in Kenya & Guwahti, Assam led to improved milk safety.

• It benefited the national economy by $33 million per year in Kenya and $6 million in Assam

• 70% of traders in Assam and 24% in Kenya are currently registered

• 6 milllion consumers in Kenya and 1.5 million in Assam are benefiting from safer milk

Positive solutions for food safety:risk not hazard based; capacity development

Key messages

• Globally, demand for animal source foods is rising rapidly; livestock commodities have the highest production value; animal production has significant environmental and human health impacts

• ‘Unpacking’ global information reveals many opportunities for animal agriculture to contribute to:

• Inclusive, sustainable economic growth • Equitable livelihoods• Nutritious and healthy diets• Sustainable ecosystems

This presentation is licensed for use under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence.

better lives through livestock

ilri.orgILRI thanks all donors and organizations who globally supported its work through their contributions

to the CGIAR system