where does social ecological modelling fit in ices?

@DickeyCollas

Where does social-ecological modelling fit in ICES?

Mark Dickey-Collas

Tools to build understanding & frame context for ecosystem based management

sociology human geography history economics political science anthropology ….

• qualitative approaches and narratives

• systems analysis

• good & services

• values, beliefs & traditions,

• inherited/developed understanding,

• risk & vulnerability analysis

Shifting arena for ICES advice & science

Holsman et al 2017 & ICES

Science for society…

• solving challenges – wicked problems

• normative & vague objectives – Good Environmental Status

• uncertainty, values & stakes - post normal science

• science speaking to society - mode 1 and 2 science

• knowledge brokers - salient, credible, legitimate, social license

ICES is providing information for economic trade-offs

Value landed when 10% of lowest fished area removed (2012-2015)

http://www.ices.dk/sites/pub/Publication%20Reports/Advice/2017/Special_requests/eu.2017.13.pdf

Spatial analysis of economic value of seabed impact

Process included exploration of concepts with stakeholders

Eastern Baltic cod

Ecologically-constrained Maximum Economic Yield (eMEY)

ICES WKDEICE

ICES operational indicators include…

• catch & value by port• social groups of fishers• communities near MPAs• fishers incomes• vulnerable to climate change• fleet diversity• ???

Why not…

WGSEDA- reviewed indicators for aquaculture, suggest difference between monetary monitoring use and applicability to ICES assessment

status of fishstocks

spatial fishingpressure

seabed impact

vulnerable marineecosystem (VME)

OSPAR & HELCOMbirds

spatial weight &value of landings

HELCOM eutrophication

€

Social indicators

• Well-being• Values• Agency• Inequality

Hicks et al 2016

Mid-Atlantic USAState of the ecosystem

Mid-Atlantic: http://www.mafmc.org/s/Tab02_2017-04_State-of-the-Ecosystem-and-EAFM.pdfNew England: http://s3.amazonaws.com/nefmc.org/2_2016-State-of-the-Ecosystem-Report.pdf

Alaska community profile: https://www.afsc.noaa.gov/refm/Socioeconomics/Projects/CPU.php

No-one-solution questions

Workshop on ICES Framework for Ecosystem Advice (WKECOFRAME)

Challenges of natural scientists working with stakeholders:power dynamic, values, cost of iterations, perceived objectivity

Reconciling objectives:management strategy evaluation

ICES asked to develop scheme to reconcile biodiversity criteria for EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive and Habitats & Birds Directives

Politics, science & pragmatism intertwined.

Information and data flow

1. Can we develop or link to existing databases/censuses on social and community information?

2. Are we able to combine/integrate across scales for monitoring and assessment?

3. Are we equipped for place based social context information?

WGHIST: social-ecological interactions change over time, analysis of previous change can inform likely future scenarios & expectations of non-linear responses.

Is our research community equipped to

accept narrative as a method?explore normative objectives?investigate values?

http://www.ices.dk/community/advisory-process/Pages/Ecosystem-overviews.aspx

What next for ICES ecosystem overviews & assessments?

Goods & services?Risk, vulnerability assessment?Trade-offs exploration

Thank you!

ICES 2017: M 318Theme session MModelling social-ecological systems: methods and tools for scenario development and prediction

Where does social-ecological modelling fit in ICES?Mark Dickey-Collas, International Council for the Exploration of the Sea Secretariat, Copenhagen, Denmark.Email: Mark.dickey-Collas@ices.dk

For a number of years, ICES has strived to engage with more social scientists and launched its Human Dimension Strategic Initiative to attract their attention and encourage them to contribute. The phrases “trade off analysis” and “integrated ecosystem assessments” have been used as possible conduits of social and ecological modelling into operational ICES work. But in practice, is ICES really ready to head down this route, and are there tangible ways in which social-ecological modelling can be used? In its recent declaration on providing the knowledge base for ecosystem based management, social science is raised with regards to the validity and relevance of ICES advice to society but not in the provision of information and knowledge for decision makers. This talk will highlight some of the advances made in the practical application of social science within ICES. It will suggest further routes that could be developed to ensure that when ICES proclaims that it can and will be inclusive of social-ecological modelling, this proclamation is not just aspirational but truly operational.

Challenges when providing knowledge

• Developing the question or knowledge need

• Clarification of objectives and roles

• Expectation management of outcome

• Ensuring optimal and effectivestakeholder engagement

• Awareness of power dynamics

For EBM, how we build the knowledge is as important as the knowledge itself.

“Place your order, drive around, and pick up the answer”

8 tenets for scientists, policy-makers, and managers

(i) engage with players early, often, and continually;

(ii) conduct rigorous human dimensions research;

(iii) recognize the importance of transparently selecting indicators;

(iv) set ecosystem targets to create a system of EBM accountability;

(v) establish a formal mechanism(s) for the review of science;

(vi) serve current management needs, but not at the expense of more integrative ocean management;

(vii) provide a venue for EBM decision-making that takes full advantage of IEA products;

(viii) embrace realistic expectations about science and its implementation.

Samhouri et al 2014