when will this old bull market end?

WHEN WILL THIS OLD

BULL MARKET END?

Paul Desmond, President

Lowry Research Corporationwww.lowryresearch.com

1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1987 1990 1994 1998 2002 2008 20??

-10%

?

-20%

-30%

-40%

-50%

-60%

THE HISTORY OF BEAR MARKETS

• 1929 DJIA losses not recovered until 1955

• 1962 losses set prices back to 1958

• 1973-74 decline set prices back 13 years

• 2000-2003 bear market cut portfolios in half.

• 2007-2009 losses set S&P 500 back 15 years

WE’VE BEEN DEALING

WITH THE APPROACH OF

BEAR MARKETS FOR MORE

THAN A HUNDRED YEARS,

WHY DON’T WE HAVE

SOME BETTER ANSWERS?

CAUSE AND EFFECT

THE CAUSES ARE ALWAYS

CHANGING

THE EFFECTS ARE

AMAZINGLY CONSISTENT

The LAW of

SUPPLY and

DEMAND

Chapter One of Virtually Every

Economics Textbook states,

“The Law of Supply and Demand

is the Foundation …..

…..the Starting Point…..

of ALL economic analysis.”

THE LAW OF

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

If there is more Demand for a

commodity than there is a

Supply of that commodity, the

price Will Rise.

THE LAW OF

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

If there is a greater Supply of

a commodity than there is a

Demand for it, the price

Will Fall.

THE LAW OF SUPPLY

AND DEMAND

ONLY DEALS WITH

EFFECTS

COMPLETELY IGNORES

CAUSES

SUPPLY AND

DEMAND

IS A

UNIVERSAL

LANGUAGE

AT EVERY MARKET TOP,

FIRST, DEMAND BEGINS TO

FADE, CAUSING PRICES TO

WEAKEN.

SECOND, WEAKENED PRICES

CAUSE SUPPLY TO EXPAND.

SELECTIVITY AT MAJOR MARKET TOPS

TOP DAY % STOCKS @ % AT OR < 2% % OFF 20% % OFF 30%

FOR DJIA NEW HIGHS OF NEW HIGHS OR MORE OR MORE

09/03/1929 2.30%

LOWRY RESEARCH

SELECTIVITY AT MAJOR MARKET TOPS

TOP DAY % STOCKS @ % AT OR < 2% % OFF 20% % OFF 30%

FOR DJIA NEW HIGHS OF NEW HIGHS OR MORE OR MORE

09/03/1929 2.30% 15.62% 31.84% 18.77%

LOWRY RESEARCH

IN 1927 TWO BANKERS FROM CLEVELAND TRUST DEVELOPED

THE ADVANCE-DECLINE LINE

1928

1929

1961 1962

1972 1973

1987

Dow Jones Industrial Average

NYSE Advance-Decline Line

1999 2000

2007

THE KEY TO

DETECTING MAJOR

MARKET TOPS IS TO

OBSERVE SIGNS OF

INCREASINGLY

EXTREME

SELECTIVITY.

MARKETS ARE NOT HOMOGENEOUS.

A SINGLE “ALL-ISSUES” ADVANCE-DECLINE LINE HIDES A GREAT AMOUNT

OF IMPORTANT INFORMATION.

LOWRY RESEARCH

➢ SMALL-CAP BREADTH USUALLY WEAKENS FIRST . . .

➢ THEN MID-CAP BREADTH BEGINS TO WEAKEN . . .

➢ BIG-CAP BREADTH IS VIRTUALLY ALWAYS THE LAST TO WEAKEN.

LOWRY RESEARCH

SO, WHERE ARE WE NOW?

LOWRY RESEARCH

IN CONCLUSION….

BASED ON THE 88 YEAR HISTORY OF THE LOWRY ANALYSIS, THE PROBABILITIES FAVOR

AT LEAST ANOTHER SIX MONTHS OF FURTHER GAINS BEFORE

THE FINAL HIGHS IN THE DJIA AND S&P 500 (BIG-CAP) INDEXES

SEPT. 25, 2017

LOWRY RESEARCH

BUT, NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN TO

SLOWLY CULL STOCKS AS THEY STOP PARTICIPATING IN THE UPTREND……

INITIALLY REINVESTING IN STRONG LARGER-CAP STOCKS……

AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN BUILDING A HEAVILY DEFENSIVE STRATEGY.

Lowry Research

If You Would Like A Copy of . . . .

“The Warning Signs of Major Market Tops”

…Just Drop Off Your Business Card….. Or,

ADMIN@LOWRYRESEARCH.COM

1929-1930