what would it take for zambia’s cattle industry to achieve its potential?
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What Would it Take for Zambia’s Cattle
Industry to Achieve its Potential?
Sunil Sinha
Prepared for the Job, Prosperity and Competitiveness Project
Supported by the World Bank, African Development Bank, and DFID
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Huge Potential of Cattle
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Substantial Grazing Land, Good Conditions
• 4 times more grazing than arable land• 3 agricultural zones suited to livestock• If Zambia = Kenya : additional asset value of US$4.5 billion.
Domestic Market: Potential for Fast Growth
• Consumption of beef and dairy products rises fast when incomes increase.• Zambians consume very little beef and dairy products.
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Zambia could export more beef & Dairy products to neighbours
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• Namibia and Botswana supply beef to RSA and export to Europe. RSA is a net importer. Exports to DRC, Angola.
• Botswana, RSA, Tanzania, Malawi import dairy products.
Beef main importers (2007)
US$ ‘000
RSA 23,665
Zimbabwe 727
Beef main exporters US$ ‘000
Botswana 111,207
RSA 10,557
Namibia 38,487
Milk main importers (2007)
US$ ‘000
Botswana 15,242
RSA 6,823
Angola 5,387
Tanzania 1,611
Milk main exporters (2007)
US$ ‘000
RSA 2,223
Zimbabwe 885
Kenya 778
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• World Beef and Dairy Trade = $50 billion+.
• Slow growth, Prices falling in real terms.
International Markets Huge & Very Competitive
Cattle: Key To Reducing Rural Poverty
• Livestock owned by most rural households • Higher proportion of household incomes
than crops (c 40%). • Cattle industry: 310,000 (c 25%) of
households• Cattle is the largest asset (US$1-1.5
billion)Cattle Sheep Goats Pigs Poultr
yMillion heads 3.1 0.485 0.746 0.704 9.9
Under Performing, Uncompetitive
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Small Cattle Population, Concentrated In 4 Provinces.
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Underperforming In Beef & Dairy
• Production is not much higher than1990, negligible exports...
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Currently, Not Competitive In Beef
Source: FAOSTAT, year 2007, Zambia figure: consultants’ calculation
Zambia Kenya Namibia RSA Argentina Brazil UK USA
Live weight
(US$/kg) 1.29 1.11 1.19 1.57 1.26 0.99 2.26 1.98
Dressed weight
(US$/kg) 3.69 2.16 2.13 2.8 2.7 2.04 4.19 3.81
Competitive in live weight, not in dressed weight.
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Nor In Dairy
Farm Gate Producer’s Price, US$/Litre
Source: FAOSTAT, Heifer International, Zambia figure: consultants’ calculation
Cost of raw milk is high because of scarcity, still importing powder to reconstitute as milk.
2008 2009
Zambia 0.68 0.6
South Africa 0.4 0.4
Kenya 0.2 0.3
Why Not Fulfilling Its Potential?
Small Market, But Now Growing
Incomes low outside formal employment Prices: higher than neighbours, 10% of food expenditure But market for beef now growing 5%-7%, Dairy c. 10% p.a. But constraint in Lusaka.
Driven by:
higher urban incomes, urbanisation changing lifestyles, changing food consumption patterns
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3 Systems: Motives, Opportunities & Constraints
Cattle Population (000)
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Farmer Type Traditional Emergent Commercial
Calving rate 30%-50% in-btn 70%-80%
Calving mortality 30%-40% in-btn 1%-2%
Adult deaths 5%-10% Lower Lowest
Off-take rates 8%-9% 10%-15% 17%-18%
Live Weight 200-250 250 300
Milk yields 1-2 ltrs 8-10 ltrs 17-23 ltrs
Characteristic Low growth Dynamic Dynamic
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