what should the governor do about jobs sherwin keynote at 2010 game changers conference

Cleantech, Climate, and Jobs

What Should the Governor Do?

1

California

GAMEchangers Conference

Elton B. Sherwin November 17, 2010

Immediate Problem

12% Unemployment

Construction-related trades

much higher

2.3 million unemployed

2

Longer Term

Very serious problem

climate change

Multiple impacts on

California and

California businesses

3

Aim Today

Convince You That Solution Is

Standing In Front Of Us

Building efficiency

Existing buildings

Create jobs

Create investment

Protect planet

Grading buildings

A+ to F

4

5 SOURCE: Inundation data from Knowles, 2008. Additional salt pond elevation data by Siegel and Bachand, 2002.

Aerial imagery is NAIP 2005 data. http://www.bcdc.ca.gov/planning/climate_change/climate_change.shtml

16 Inches

of Sea Rise

San Jose

San

Francisco

Vallejo

San Rafael

Oakland

7

SOURCE: Inundation data from Knowles, 2008. Additional salt pond elevation data by Siegel and Bachand, 2002.

Aerial imagery is NAIP 2005 data. BCDC.gov

Foster City

East Palo Alto Menlo Park

16 Inches

of Sea Rise

Silicon

Valley

8

SOURCE: Inundation data from Knowles, 2008. Additional salt pond elevation data by Siegel and Bachand, 2002.

Aerial imagery is NAIP 2005 data. BCDC.gov

Moffett Field

237

Sun,

Google,

and, Cisco

all at risk

9

SOURCE: Inundation data from Knowles, 2008. Additional salt pond elevation data by Siegel and Bachand, 2002.

Aerial imagery is NAIP 2005 data. BCDC.gov

Vallejo

North Bay 16 Inches

of Sea Rise

10 SOURCE: Inundation data from Knowles, 2008. Additional salt pond elevation data by Siegel and Bachand, 2002.

Aerial imagery is NAIP 2005 data. BCDC.gov

Richmond

North Bay 16 Inches

of Sea Rise

San Rafael

Larkspur

Corte Madera

11

July Temperatures

2009 California Climate Adaptation Strategy

www.climatechange.ca.gov/adaptation

California’s

agricultural

regions will be

hard hit

12

Midcentury

Increase of 5 Degrees Fahrenheit

2009 California Climate Adaptation Strategy

www.climatechange.ca.gov/adaptation

5+

13

Could See Increases of 10 to 14

Degree Fahrenheit in Central Valley*

2009 California Climate Adaptation Strategy

*“Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California”

Christopher B. Field and 17 coauthors, June 23, 2004, PNAS

10+

14

Smaller snowpack

More water shortages

Less water for agriculture

“Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California”

Christopher B. Field and 17 coauthors, June 23, 2004, PNAS

15

Heat Waves in Los Angeles

Basin Will Be Much More

Frequent

Dan Steinberg, Associated Press

So What Should the

Governor Do?

16

Letter to Fictional Governor

Makes 55

recommendations

17

Only Five Involve Taxes or Fees

1. DMV fees proportional to oil imports

Gas guzzlers have higher DMV fees

2. Carbon tax on inefficient light bulbs

3. 10¢ bottle tax

4. Congestion pricing on all freeways

5. Mandatory Energy Savings Account for

inefficient buildings

18

Blue State

Recommendations

Fifty With No Fees or Taxes

Pool pumps

Window films

Motor controls

Smart lighting

Building tune ups

Thermal storage on air conditioners

Green building code recommendations

Research priorities

Nighttime electric rates 19

Pay for themselves

Not being done

20

Focus on Buildings

21

Why Buildings

America has:

Over 50 million inefficient buildings

Upgrades pay for themselves

Millions of out-of-work construction workers

22

Buildings are the Largest

Source of CO2

in America

More than all cars, trucks and

planes added together

23

Building energy consumption

is almost 40% of U.S. CO2

emissions*

*Mitigating Climate Change: What America’s Building Industry Must Do

Mahadev Raman. Using DOE data

24

Create Jobs by

Improving Building Efficiency

25

Need to Improve Existing Buildings

Retail

Commercial

Schools

Government

Residential

26

It is Not Happening

Unable to Connect the Dots

Over 50 million buildings that need

upgrades

Upgrades pay for themselves in reduced

utility bills

Millions of unemployed construction

workers

Reduced utility bills would pay their salaries

27

70% to 80% Energy Used in

Buildings Is Wasted

German Passive House uses 1/7 the

energy of US code

Why cannot America do this?

28

29

Recommendation:

Grade Our Buildings

A-

55 Recommendations

Two most important

Reduce air pollution

Soot, methane, ozone,

carbon monoxide, etc.

Grade buildings

30

Analyzed 12 Different Building Energy

Labels and Their Associated Rating

Methodologies

Recommended Label In Monthly Utility Bill

C-

B+

Electricity**

Gas**

*125 is highest score

1 is lowest

Compared to all federal buildings in

America (See Inverted Scale with Progressive Weighting)

** The energy grade is determined

comparing this building to other similar

buildings in similar climates

74 *

Image from iStockphoto

Peer Rating

• Similar building types – Office to office

– Hospital to hospital

• In similar climates

• Top 20% get As A+ reserved for net zero

• Bottom 20% get Fs

• Include + and –

• Get the best of either per sq. ft. or per person

National Rating

• National standard

– Intuitive: scores above

80 are good, below 70

are poor

• 125 minus weighted EUI

• Source energy (per sq ft.)

– Combines natural gas,

oil and electricity

– All electricity weighted

at national average

What Would Happen?

Put a grade in monthly utility bill

Mail window sticker quarterly

Optional for the building owner to display

36

What Would Happen?

Hotels with As get more business

Hotels with Ds would upgrade

Energy efficiency would be important

Some businesses and employees would

hunt down their energy hogs

37

What Would Happen?

Best energy auditors become very popular

Backlog of work upgrading:

Lighting systems

Windows

Cooling towers

Insulation

Fans, pumps, and motor controls

Building controls, VAV boxes, etc.

38

What Would Happen?

Millions of new jobs

Skills would improve

Burn less coal and natural gas

Send less money out-of-state to buy

hydrocarbons

Spend more money locally

Efficient products outsell inefficient

products

39

Why This Label

Grades motivate change + and - reward small

improvements

Does not require audits Universal participation

Automatic monthly updates

Fair: works for all sizes of buildings

Drive dramatic reductions in energy consumption

Need better Labels on Products

42

Also

Need More Information On-line

43

www.energyrating.gov.au 1

Brand Refrigerators-

Freezers

Model

Total

Volume

(litres)

Energy

Consumption

(kWh/annum)

10 Yr

Energy

Cost

Star Rating

DAEWOO FRN-U20__I 603 515 $875 *****

WHIRLPOOL 6E_2__XR_ 640 614 $1,043 *****

SAMSUNG SRS767DGB 768 731 $1,242 ****

GENERAL

ELECTRIC PCG25

GSG25MIP__ 761 729 $1,239 ****

1 There is much to like about the Australian government’s site, foremost is showing the ten-year cost of

energy. I like it even better than showing the five-year costs.

The site also leaves old appliances on the web site, even when they are no longer sold in stores.

This is enormously helpful, not only to users of eBay, but also for energy auditors and building

owners.

The site also grades products, which is good. Unfortunately, the Australians give products one or

two stars that would earn a “D” or “F” under the scheme I proposed earlier (page 184).

I would purchase a product with one or two stars. I would never bring a product home with a

“D” or “F” on the label. Grades work; stars and happy faces do not. That is why we stop

giving stars in elementary school and switch to grades.

I predict that every foreign appliance and consumer electronics company will lobby against

grades, forgetting that they already sell graded products in Europe, and some will actually

convince lawmakers that grades are “too hard.” It is amazing how many “capitalists” do not seem

to like competition.

Back to the topic at hand, it would be great if the DOE’s new web site could help find “plug

compatible” new, replacement products and calculate breakeven points: Which newer products

are the same size? What new refrigerator is exactly the same size as the old one? What new attic

fan will exactly fit in the cutout created for the old fan? How much more efficient are the new

products, compared to the one I have installed? Is the old product so wasteful that one should

replace it immediately?

The DOE does not have to do all this research. Energy auditors and average Americans will

provide much of this information.

Also

Utility Bills are the Single Best

Yardstick

Ensure green buildings disclose utility bills

Start grading buildings based on

ACTUAL ENERGY USE

44

Summary Recommendations

1. Grade buildings: A+ to F

Optional quarterly window stickers

2. Disclose energy consumption of all

buildings claiming to be green

Include all government buildings and

builders requesting variances

Identify the architect

45

In Closing

Building grades will motivate action:

1. Create private investment

2. Create jobs

3. Improve skills

4. Encourage innovation

5. Reduce emissions

46

A+

For more information: www.EltonSherwin.com

Information on building grades:

http://www.slideshare.net/EltonSherwin/presentations

Specifically two presentations:

http://tinyurl.com/34dp6qx and http://tinyurl.com/34vrhl6

47

Appendix

48

World-

wide Next

20 Years

(Soot)

Soot and Smoke Also

Damage Our Environment

McKinsey

49

Pay for Themselves “Negative” Costs

50

Real Costs

51

Coal

52

Savings “Pay” for Most

Non-coal Upgrades

53

=

Pay for Themselves “Negative” Costs

Building-Related:

Residential lighting

Residential electronics

Commercial insulation

Motor systems

Residential appliances

Water heaters

Air conditioning

Building “tune-ups”

HVAC zoning

Fan/pump controls

Non-Building:

Standby power

Industrial efficiency

Hybrid cars

Landfill methane

Waste recycling

Agriculture nutrient

management

Agriculture tillage/residue

54

McKinsey, DOE, UK Gov.

Author’s experience

Real Costs Less Expensive Capturing CO2 From Coal-fired Power

Agriculture-Related:

Cropland management

Grassland management

Soil restoration

Protecting rainforests

Pastureland afforestation

Reforestation

Manure management

Feedstock substitution

Fertilizer management

Non-Agriculture:

Ultra-efficient new

buildings

Plug-in Hybrids

Concentrating solar

Solar PV

Wind

55

McKinsey, DOE, UK Gov.

Author’s experience

Questions

More Information:

www.EltonSherwin.com

eltonsherwin.wordpress.com

facebook.com/EltonSherwin

58

McKinsey 2007

59

Sector Specific Abatement Cost Curves

Agriculture in the UK

60

The First Report of the UK Committee on Climate Change

December 2008

61

US DOE. CO2 in America. Excludes other greenhouse pollutants: methane,

Soot, CFCs, etc. Also excludes embedded energy in imports and most impacts from Agriculture.

CO2 Emissions:

Circled sources are

mostly buildings

62

Which Building Types Use the Most

Energy Overall?

63

Which Building use the Most

Energy per Square Foot?

64

Electricity Consumption in

Healthcare Buildings

65

Checklists www.EltonSherwin.com What Can Cities and Counties Do?

Simple Green Building Code Homes

Commercial Property

What are Your Company’s Top Energy Wasters? Schools and public buildings

What are Your Home’s Top Energy

Wasters?

How Do I Find the Energy Hogs in My House?

Reducing Your Carbon Footprint

www.Amazon.com

66

Encourage the Disclosure of

Building Energy Consumption

Cities have leverage:

Requesting permit

Requesting variance

Bidding for city business

Selling building

Challenge other city governments

Prohibit “green” or efficiency claims without disclosure

Give window stickers to all homes and businesses who disclose their data

Cities can encourage disclosure

• Last 2 yrs utility bills

• Next 10 yrs

Use Signage Laws to Ban Advertising

Without Disclosure

Energy Saving

Green Home (Data not disclosed)

Require

• Last 2 yrs utility bills

• Next 10 yrs

68

Why Grades Based on Energy?

Energy => CO2 => Environmental Damage

Image: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK)

Awards based on

anything other than

actual energy

consumption are not

helpful.

69

http://www.slideshare.net/EltonSherwin/presentations

http://tinyurl.com/34dp6qx and http://tinyurl.com/34vrhl6

Also, see

Response to the

National Energy Rating Program for Homes

Request for Information