what orientations for mauritius? competitiveness foresight “ two roads diverged in a wood and i--...

What orientations for Mauritius?

Competitiveness Foresight

“Two roads diverged in a wood and I-- I took the one less travelled by,

And that has made all the difference”, Robert Frost

Economic growth rate

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Year

GD

P gr

owth

rate

(%)

DRIVERS

NIS QUESTIONS

• Have we reached the limits of our production possibilities?

• What type of innovation is required to take us on a high-growth path?

• Do we have enough competencies to identify the new sources of growth?

• Do we have enough resources to support new sources of growth?

• How do we make Mauritius more attractive to the outside world in the new environment?

• What are we willing to trade-off to have higher growth?

COMPETITIVENESS FORESIGHT1.1. What is foresight?What is foresight?

• SCENARIO BUILDING

PARTICIPANTS

• Public sector – 17• Private sector – 27 • NESC stakeholders – 12• International organizations – 4

KEY CHALLENGE

• With Mauritius’ future as a sugar producer looking bleak, powerful competitive pressures being placed on textiles and garments exports, OECD placing limits on financial sector competition, and finite limits on high value tourism, what should the island’s strategy for growth and development be for the next 10 years and beyond?

Employment Trends

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

Sugar

Textiles

Tourism

Finance

Mauritius Trade Preference Schemes

• EU Cotonou Agreement (formerly the LOME Convention)

• US African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)- Wearing and Apparel Provision

REGIONAL TRADE

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

Rs 000

ACP COMESA SADC IOR

Trade with regional partners, 2002

Imports

Exports

1.1. What orientations for Mauritius?What orientations for Mauritius?

GDP Trend under 2 Scenarii

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Year

GD

P a

t c

on

sta

nt

19

92

pri

ce

s (

Rs

M)

GDP (1992-2004)

GDP (2005-2014)-4%growthGDP (2005-2014)-8%growth

Table 5: GDP per capita under different scenarii of economic growth

Average Annual Growth rate (%)

3 4 5 6 7 8

Year where 2003 GDP per capita doubles(Population growth of 1% per annum)

2039 2027 2021 2018 2015 2014

1. SOCIO-POLITICAL CONSTRAINTS2. ABSENCE OF AN INTEGRATED STRATEGY3. INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY4. LACK OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP5. ATTITUDE/ MINDSET TOWARDS OPENNESS6. CHANGING MENTAL MODELS7. HUMAN RESOURCES8. MARKETING9. LEADERSHIP10. FOREIGN POLICY11. GLOBAL / REGIONAL INTEGRATION

CONSTRAINTS

Challenges of Openness I

• What internal stresses and strains will such a change in orientation create?

• How will they be handled?

Challenges of Openness II

A painful transition

• What will that transition entail?

Challenges of Openness II

• How will it be financed? • How will domestic dislocations be taken

care of?• How will political support be garnered? • How will the Mauritian electorate be taken

on board so that there is as near universal a societal consensus as possible that this change is necessary and positive (i.e. to be embraced rather than resisted)?

Challenges of Openness III

• What future will Mauritius face if this transition to openness is not made -- i.e. what are the costs of inaction?

WAY FORWARD

• Practising openness which is reciprocal, non-selective, symmetrical

• Creating the best operating platform

• Developing a world-class regulatory capacity to ensure that competition is level and completely clean.

WAY FORWARD

• multidisciplinary technical teams:examine fully the consequences and work

out the implications for opening up in terms of essential changes in policy and the administration of policy as far as the following are concerned: i.e. fiscal policy, monetary policy, exchange rate policy, immigration policy, urban development policy and FDI entry/exit policy, changes in government behaviour and business behaviour

WAY FORWARD

• outline a marketing strategy for selling brand Mauritius to the world as the best platform on which to undertake globally orientated ICT/BPO business, and

• to work out a roadmap for managing "the transition”.

OBJECTIVES

• To build socio-political consensus on the direction

• To elaborate an integrated strategy• To create an attractive investment climate• To enhance institutional capacity in both

public and private sectors• To promote a culture of entrepreneurship• To nurture an open mindset

OBJECTIVES

• To attract high skilled manpower• To review the marketing strategy and

branding of Mauritius• To develop competent leadership at all

levels with emphasis on governance and meritocracy

• To gear foreign policy towards achievement of the above objectives