what if this were really true?

What if this is really true?Wairarapa Principals AssociationMasterton, 7 June 2017

derek.wenmoth@core-ed.org

@dwenmoth

http://www.wenmoth.net

Our changing world

Our world is changing and changing rapidly. What must we do to prepare students for living and working in the 21st century? How must our schools and teachers change to meet these opportunities and challenges?

Future Shock

•“Future shock is the shattering stress and disorientation that we induce in individuals by subjecting them to too much change in too short a time.”

•Alvin Toffler

The Future…• Food supply• Water • Cryogenics• Nano-technology

• Superdiversity• Human rights• Poverty• Religious intolerance

https://hbr.org/2015/06/beyond-automation

• “Economists may be underestimating how fast the robots are coming.

• Robots and intelligent machines threaten to replace workers in industries from finance to retail to haulage, with more than 15 million British jobs and 80 million in the U.S. lost to automation.”

• BOE Chief Economist Andrew Haldane

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-01/economists-may-be-underestimating-how-fast-the-robots-are-coming

https://hbr.org/2015/06/beyond-automation

8 Skilled Jobs that may soon be replaced by Robots

http://www.makeuseof.com/tag/8-skilled-jobs-may-soon-replaced-robots/

AccountantsReal estate agentsWritersAttorneysProfessional DriversMedical StaffCashiersCall Centre Operators

https://www.narrativescience.com/#home

Change in demand for skills

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 2009

Routine manualNonroutine manualRoutine cognitiveNonroutine analyticNonroutine interpersonal

Mean task input in percentiles of 1960 task distribution

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Source: Autor, David H. and Brendan M. Price. 2013. "The Changing Task Composition of the US Labor Market: An Update of Autor, Levy, and Murnane (2003)." MIT Mimeograph, June.

• “The artificial intelligence revolution and its impact on the US workforce is not even on our radar screen…

• …technology is still 50 to 100 years from displacing human jobs.”

• US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/technology/news/article.cfm?c_id=5&objectid=11825496

BUT WAIT...What if it

really IS TRUE?

• What would schools look like?• How would they operate?• What would teachers do?• What would the curriculum be like?• How would we organise the school day?• How would we assess learning?• What would be the role of

digital technologies?• What would be different?

How would we need to change?

https://www.wired.com/2016/01/udacity-coding-courses-guarantee-a-job-or-your-money-back/

http://www.compareyourcountry.org/pisa/country/nzl

http://www.compareyourcountry.org/pisa/country/nzl

“We’re still working within the same twentieth-century framework. The thinking hasn’t changed. It’s just couching what we’ve already done in much fancier production values. It looks cooler and more digitised, but the underlying educational objectives have not changed.”

Dr. Jane Gilbert

http://idealog.co.nz/etc/2015/03/educating-future-we-cant-imagine

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LDjpwJdZmV4

https://proquestionasker.github.io/

“…if we don’t change the way we are teaching our young people, they will be staggeringly ill-prepared for the future.”

Dr. Jane Gilbert

http://idealog.co.nz/etc/2015/03/educating-future-we-cant-imagine

https://ideas-ted-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/ideas.ted.com/the-rise-of-the-useless-class/amp/

EnterpriseSkills

Career Management

Skills

TechnicalSkills

FoundationalSkills

http://www.fya.org.au/report/the-new-work-mindset-report/

Future Shock

•“Our technological powers increase, but the side effects and potential hazards also escalate.”

•Alvin Toffler

Digital vs Human• “It’s all progress… but progress towards

what?”• “It’s true that technology is neutral – but

only if you take humans out of the equation.”

• “We need a broader debate about what is happening with technological developments.”

https://www.amazon.com/Digital-Human-well-think-future-ebook/dp/B01D0IEO00

“The real problem of humanity is the following: we have paleolithic emotions; medieval institutions; and god-like technology.”

Edward Wilson, US Biologist

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E._O._Wilson

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=937iCwJd3fI

derek.wenmoth@core-ed.org

@dwenmoth

http://www.wenmoth.net