what caused it?

What Caused It?

• Rain . . .

• Rain . . .

• And MORE RAIN !!!

12Z JUN 27 2006 500 Hpa

12Z JUN 28 2006 500 HPA

12Z JUN 28 2006 Surface Chart

12Z JUN 28 2006 24-Hr PRECIP

STORM TOTAL PRECIP72 HRS ENDING 062806 14Z

8+8+

6”

5”

Stream Channel Encroachment

Is a BIG Problem !!!

How Did We Do It???How Did We Do It ???

We Learned about the

East Canada Creek

We started with a Unit Hydrograph from Northeast RFC for the

East Canada Creek at East Creek

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

c

f

s

HOURS 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72

We modified it for a slightly We modified it for a slightly smallersmaller

drainage area and a lack of drainage area and a lack of upstreamupstreamreservoirsreservoirsA slightly smaller total volume

A Sharper Peak due to lack of

Reservoir Storage

The October 1945 flood had some records

on both gages.

Observations were, and continue to Observations were, and continue to be a real problem!be a real problem!

The gage at Dolgeville was either destroyed or demolished !!!There was a USGS gage at East Creek. But we had no means of getting real-time stages from it!!

We had to get CREATIVE !

We found a way to use data from the Power Company !!!

Most hydro plants have measurements of…

Pond and/or Tailwater Elevations

Amount of power GenerationStatus of Gates and flashboardsand if we’re lucky sometimes even

Computed Flow in CFS !!!

Every Hydro Plant is Different !!!

On the East Canada Creek, for example…

Inghams can only “use” 750 cfs There are no waste gates. There is 4.5 ft of bladders.

Beardslee can “use” 1500 cfs and let another 1500 cfs go thru by opening a waste gate. There can be 7 ft of boards.

Chart for East Canada at Inghams

The WHFS MPE was very helpful in determining how much rain fell over the area.

Unadjusted radar can be misleading. This is especially true in mountainous terrain and at locations distant from the RDA site.

We had the NERFC run a Contingency Forecast on East Creek to give us an idea how much of a peak flow there would be.

Forecast algorithms were developed many years ago. The East Canada did not become a regular forecast point due to the lack of observations and the complications caused by the hydroelectric plants.

We ran the WHFS Site Specific Forecast Model for Dolgeville using The MPE estimate along with some Additional forecast precip.

It was still raining !!

We also ran the approximate amount of Precipitation in FLARE to compare. FLARE is the FLood and River

Emulator workstation p/c program

that was developed by WFO/CRW

in the 1990’s

We wrote and issued the Warning

Using RiverPro

We had only a limited amount of

Specific impact data due to the

Lack of details of the 1945 flood.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDFLOOD WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 751 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2006

NYC035-043-057-282350-/X.NEW.KALY.FL.W.0035.060628T1150Z-060630T0258Z//DLGN6.3.ER.000000T0000Z.060628T1800Z.060629T2058Z.NR/751 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WARNING FOR * THE EAST CANADA CREEK AT DOLGEVILLE WITH NEAR RECORD FLOOD.* UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING.* AT 7 AM ESTIMATED STAGE WAS NEAR 14 FEET.* FLOOD STAGE IS 10 FEET. * AT 15 FEET...SEVERE FLOODING AT DANIEL GREENE COMPLEX WITH HEAVY DAMAGE.

* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 15.1 FEET ON OCTOBER 2 1945. DO NOT DRIVE OVER FLOODED ROADS OR BRIDGES...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...THE OFFICIAL VOICE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...FOR LATER DEVELOPMENTS... FOR MORE DETAILS VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV. && FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 2 PM 8 PM 2 AM 8 AM 2 PMLOCATION STG STG DAY TIME WED WED THU THU THUEAST CANADA CREEK DOLGEVILLE 10.0 15.0 14.2 13.1 11.6 8.4

$$

Did we get a good lead time???

Did we get a good lead time???

NO!Only about an hour later the emergency manager reported water spilling over the Keyser Lake Dam.

A little more than TWO HOURS later was when the

Dolgeville Restaurant foundations failed and the building slid into the river!

Why Not ??

Why Not ??

For one thing a lot was going on.

Other Rivers were above Flood!They included the Mohawk River, Sacandaga River,

Lake George, and the Esopus Creek.

Why Not ??

For one thing a lot was going on.

Other Rivers were above Flood!We didn’t get real-time river

stages which might have given

us a clue to the magnitude of

the developing flood!

Why Not ??

We Also Had

Severe Weather!!!

How can we do better??

How can we do better??

Get to Know Your

Forecast Area.

Utility Companies

Co-op Observers

SKYWARN spotters

How can we do better??

Get to Know Your Rivers

Aerial and Satellite Images

Google Maps

www.terraserver-usa.com

USGS sites and studies

How can we do better??

Radar and MPE products

Time-Lapse OHP, THP

How can we do better??

Your WHFS Data BaseAre ALL your USGS gages defined?

Are there other sites you can use?

WHFS Site Specific Model

How can we do better??

The QPF/QPS

QPF vs POP grids

Storms DON’T magically end at 12Z!!The QPS should reflect this!

How can we do better??

Workload Issues!!!

Floods ARE Severe Wx!Geographic Sectors

Anticipate—after all we

ARE Forecasters!

Damage Estimates Estimated 20 Million in Damages 650 Residents Filed for FEMA Assistance 90% of municipalities filed Request for

Public Assistance with FEMA FEMA / SEMO will remain on-site until mid-

October.

How this flood compared to others..

It was a NEW RECORD!!!

About 36,500 cubic ft/second Other East Canada Creek Floods:

24000 in October 1945

17800 in January 1998

17000 in January 1996

15000 in May 2000

13900 in “The Great 1913 Flood”

Contributions from the following are gratefully acknowledged…

John Quinlan and Steve DiRienzo – hydromet support

WKTV Channel 2 Utica

Robert Tracey and TEAM Legacy – Motivation and Inspiration

Cathy Kilpatrick – PowerPoint Graphics help

Ray O’Keefe – WCM WFO Albany

Northeast River Forecast Center

Warren Snyder – NROW