wellington business keynote - paul callaghan
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Beyond the Farm and the Theme ParkTransforming New Zealand s culture and economy
Paul CallaghanAlan MacDiarmid Professor of Physical Sciences
Victoria University of Wellington
One-sided access NMR
Alpine Zone
Tussock
Exotic grassland
Exotic forest
Scrub, wetlands
Native forest
Settlements, crops
100
80
60
40
20
0
perc
ent t
otal
land
are
a
1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
year
Recent history of New Zealand land cover
Land area
NetDairy exports
http://www.sasi.group.shef.ac.uk/worldmapper/textindex/text_transport.html
Real per capita GDP (OECD average = 100)
Source: OECD
USA
Ireland
Finland
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
Australia
New Zealand
22 August to 5 October World Health Organisationrecommended
EVH3 Impact of Housing on Health in Dunedin NZwww.dunedincity.govt.nz/city/
tem
pera
ture
o C
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Dunedin September
time (hh:mm)00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00
living room
outdoors
EVH3 Impact of Housing on Health in Dunedin NZwww.dunedincity.govt.nz/city/
New Zealand average
New Zealand average
Num
ber
of d
eath
s
EVH3 Impact of Housing on Health in Dunedin NZwww.dunedincity.govt.nz/city/
New Zealand average
New Zealand average
Num
ber
of d
eath
s
How many New Zealanders* live abroad?
(i) 100,000(ii) 200,000(iii) 500,000(iv) 1,000,000(v) 1,500,000
*NZ born
Diaspora 2001
New Zealand 12%Australia 2%UK 6%Canada 4%
http://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/research-policy/wp/2004/04-13
A century of decline
*Adjusted by US GDP deflator
The Economist industrial commodity-price index real *$ terms 1845-50 = 100
1850 1900 1950 2004
120
140
100
80
60
40
20
Effective marketsLegal frameworksProperty rightsHonest work ethicLack of corruption
Effective marketsLegal frameworksProperty rightsHonest work ethicLack of corruption
Low taxation?SwedenPer capita GDP 31% higher than NZTop personal tax rate 56% VAT 25%
AustraliaPer capita GDP 30% higher than NZTop personal tax rate 45% GST 10%
Nathan Rothschild 1821
Pasture research.Strain and BreedingNitrogen fixing roleBush-Sickness-cobalt deficiencyIntegrated Pastoral SystemsThe Role of PhosphateAerial topdressingThe Electric FenceMilk TankersFewer Farms - Bigger HerdsThe Science of Milk ProductsMechanised Cheesemaking
Geoffrey Peren
Francis Dry
Source: David Bibby, 1998Updated PTC 2007
Meat Exports/Pharmaceutical Imports
0
12
3
45
6
7
89
10
1112
13
14
1516
17
1819
20
1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
Year
20
18
8
4
0
16
14
12
10
6
2
1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010
Year
Rat
io
How much more income per annum does New Zealand need to match Australia's per capita GDP?
(i) US $5 bn(ii) US $10 bn(iii) US $20 bn(iv) US $30 bn(v) US $50 bn
Trend in per capita GDP relative to OECD average
New Zealand 2006 GDP US $106.9 billion
Australia 2006 GDP - Per Capita US $33,300
New Zealand 2006 GDP - Per Capita US $26,200
shortfallUS$ 29.2 billion
OECD-NZ Institutehttp://www.nzinstitute.org/
Merchandise exports for the year ended December 2006 US $25.2 billion
Travel and transportation exports for the year ended December 2006 US $7.4 billion
0
2
4
6
8
NZ External Trade Statisticshttp://www.stats.govt.nz
2006 US$ 32 billion
Perceptions of Crowding by Track Surveyed
1018452751Tongariro(GW)
724482129Lake Waikaremoana(GW)
%%%%North Island
Extremely Crowded
Moderately Crowded
Slightly Crowded
Not at all Crowded
n2Track Name
UoO dept Tourism
Meet psycho for only $7950
Sheikh Mishal bin Hamad al Thani
Japan
Greece Spain
Iceland
Canada USA
IrelandUKSweden
Italy
Germany Belgium
France
Austria
Netherlands
Finland
SwitzerlandAustralia
Japan
Greece Spain
Iceland
Canada USA
IrelandUKSweden
Italy
Germany Belgium
France
Austria
Netherlands
Finland
SwitzerlandAustralia
AB
C
D
E
JapanNew Zealand
Greece Spain
Iceland
Canada USA
IrelandUKSweden
Italy
Germany Belgium
France
Austria
Netherlands
Finland
SwitzerlandAustralia
Japan
New Zealand
Greece
Spain
IcelandCanada
USA
Ireland
Sweden
Italy
Germany
Switzerland
Australia Belgium,NetherlandsAustria
Finland UKFrance
prosperity
Total FTE New Zealand employment as at March 2009 1.36 million*
Total FTE New Zealand population as at March 4.32 million*
To exceed our current per capita: GDP average revenue per employee must exceed NZ$ 45,200*(4.32/1.36)
We need another US $30 billion per annum exportsNew activity must exceed NZ $143,000 revenue per employee FTE!
New Zealand GDP - Per Capita US $26,200
NZ $45,200
AustraliaGDP - Per Capita US $33,300
NZ $57,400
shortfallUS $29.2 billion
OECD-NZ Institutehttp://www.nzinstitute.org/
* NZTE
The GDP per capita challenge-revenue per employee
What is the average revenue per employee for the NZ Tourism industry?
(i) NZ$ 75,000(ii) NZ$ 100,000(iii) NZ$ 150,000(iv) NZ$ 200,000 (v) NZ$ 300,000
0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
Needed for current
per capita GDP
200,000100,000 300,000
Tourism
Rev
enue
per
em
ploy
ee
FTE of employment
0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
Needed for current
per capita GDP
200,000100,000 300,000
Total NZ Manufacturing
Tourism
Rev
enue
per
em
ploy
ee
FTE of employment
NZ Manufacturing Exports
Food manufacturing
Wine
0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
Needed for current
per capita GDP
200,000100,000 300,000
Fonterra
Total NZ Manufacturing
Tourism
Rev
enue
per
em
ploy
ee
FTE of employment
NZ Manufacturing Exports
Food manufacturing
Wine
0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
Needed for current
per capita GDP
200,000100,000 300,000
Fisher and Paykel Healthcare
Total NZ Manufacturing
Tourism
Rev
enue
per
em
ploy
ee
FTE of employment
NZ Manufacturing Exports
Food manufacturing
Wine
Fonterra
$100m
$200m
$300m
$400m
$500m
$1410m
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 1
F and P appliances Datacom
F and P Healthcare Navico
NDA ProvencoCadmus
RakonGallagher
Weta Ltd Tait Electronics Ltd
Douglas pharmaceuticalsAllied Telesis
MethvenTru Test
GlidepathDynamic controls
CWF HamiltonSchneider electric
Skope industriesBCS group
HumanwareInfinity group
NZ Pharmaceuticals
TIN100New Zealand Technology Companies
Rank
Environment Industry
NZ
POR
DENIRL
CANAUSTFIN
USABEL MEX TA FR JPNNED SW GER SP UK
Agriculture, F and F
Our place on the research funding phase diagram
Source: David Bibby, IRL, 1998
$9 per kg
$3000 per kg
Abt Associates report to MoRSTwww.morst.govt.nz
New Economy Research Fund1999-2005 New Zealand
USA(and nearly everyone else)
www.hotscience.co.nz
Beyond the Farm and the Themepark
50 minute documentaryTVNZ 7 4,5,6 November 2008
Auckland University PressMarch 2009
Rich economies must defend themselves by remaining on the cutting edge of research, moving into new and growing branches, learning from others, finding the right niches, by cultivating and using ability and knowledge. Much will depend on their spirit of enterprise, their sense of identity and commitment to the common weal, their self-esteem, their ability to transmit these assets across the generations..
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