welcome to the bay of fundy mccap workshop

Welcome to the Bay of Fundy MCCAP Workshop

1. What question about your MCCAP do you most want to gain clarity about today?

2. What municipal decisions are you currently making that will be affected by changes in climate?

Workshop premised on . . .

•Climate change may exacerbate considerable geological risk for future development

•We can mitigate some of that risk

Assessing Geological Hazards 4 of 30

. . . to develop a methodology to incorporate geology into the land use planning process

Geohazards are events caused by geological features and processes that present severe threats to humans, property and the natural and built environment.

Picture from NS DNR Geological Services Division

Geohazards?

Assessing Geological Hazards 4 of 30

. . . to develop a methodology to incorporate geology into the land use planning process

• coastal flooding and riverine flooding• coastal erosion• land sinking – sinkholes• contamination of water from heavy metals

in soil or acid rock drainage• landslides / slope failure

Geo-events that pose threats

Picture from NS DNR Geological Services Division

Assessing Geological Hazards 4 of 30

. . . to develop a methodology to incorporate geology into the land use planning process

How do we realistically handle these geohazards in our MCCAPs?

Geo-events that pose threats

Picture from NS DNR Geological Services Division

2 climate drivers

1.Sea level rise

2.Changes in precipitation

BIO’s relative sea level rise estimates

0.4-0.9m on 50-year time scale

0.9-1.6 on 100-year time scale

Example from

County of Colchester / Truro

MSC’sSTORM SURGE MODEL

Tell us the impacts you are seeing and at what water levels!

Model based on OUTPUT WINDS

MSC’sSTORM SURGE MODEL

Map display; every hour for 48 hrs out from when model run

Time series graph; point forecast for specific location. Show stage 1, 2 or 3 flooding based on past events.

MSC’sSTORM SURGE MODEL

Does NOT include wave run up

Add 10% to surge levelsif wind facing shoreline . . .

. . . then add tide level

MSC’sSTORM SURGE MODEL

65cm surge predicted at nearly high tide = 2.9m

75-80 cm surge experienced = so 3m + at least another 10cm for wave run up

(more if wind from S/SE)

Observed sea level rise exceeded what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted by 50% for the period 1990–2006.

80% of the rise in sea level between during 2003–2008 is believed to be from ice melt

0.42 ± 0.15 0.57m upper uncertainty for relative SLR

So use 0.57m

Water Surplus

Water Deficit

Intensity Short Period Rainfall

In a 20 year return period rainfall:

• 5% more rain by 2020s

• 9% more by 2050s

• 16% more by 2080s

Anne Warburtonawarburton@elementalsustainability.com902 431 7168

www.elementalsustainability.ca